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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC on FX 4 and UFC 147 Edition

Did that title totally blow your freakin minds?! We know it did, but for those of you who still remain on the planet Earth after reading it, prepare yourselves for a double dose of down and dirty gambling advice. Thanks to a pair of back-to-back cards and an injury curse the likes of which we’ve never seen before, this weekend’s UFC on FX 4 and UFC 147 events have just enough interesting matchups between them to help you prosper during the greatest American depression since the last great American depression, so lets do some (betting) lines!

UFC on FX: Maynard vs. Guida
Gray Maynard (-305) vs. Clay Guida (+275)
Spencer Fisher (+260) vs. Sam Stout (-290)
Brian Ebersole (-240) vs. T.J. Waldburger (+200)
Ross Pearson (-180) vs. Cub Swanson (+165)
Hatsu Hioki (-185) vs. Ricardo Lamas (+155)
C.J. Keith (+225) vs. Ramsey Nijem (-285)
Joey Gambino (-115 ) vs. Steven Siler (-115)
Rick Story (-380) vs. Brock Jardine (+290)
Luis Ramos (+145) vs. Matt Brown (-175)
Chris Camozzi (+175) vs. Nick Catone (-245)
Ricardo Funch (+375) vs. Dan Miller (-515)

UFC 147
Rich Frankin (-170) vs. Wanderlei Silva (+150)
Cezar Ferreira (-260) vs. Sergio Moraes (+200)
Rony Mariano Bezerra (-280) vs. Godofredo de Oliveira (+220)
Mike Russow (+400) vs. Fabricio Werdum (-500)
Yuri Alcantara (+220) vs. Hacran Dias (-280)
(all figures courtesy of BestFightOdds)

Thoughts…

The Main Events: Gentlemen, we’re basically looking at the greatest pair of main events that a fan could ever hope to ask for, and anyone who says otherwise doesn’t know what they’re talking about. You literally could not get us any more amped if you had an eight ball of coke, a pair of disease-free escorts, and the keys to FAO Shwarz on Christmas Eve.

The odds for those events, however, leave us a little less than enthused. Given the outcome of their first fight, combined with the fact that they are basically fighting at the same catchweight as before, it makes sense to see Franklin as a slight favorite. If either man catches the other, there’s a chance that they can finish them, but while Franklin’s chin may not be what it used to, the same goes quadruple over for Wandy. “Ace” was simply dwarfed by Forrest Griffin in his loss at UFC 126, but will have a slight reach and size advantage over “The Axe Murderer” here, so unless Wandy can manage to catch him with something early, look for Franklin to control the distance and get in and out before landing a 1-2 combo that puts Wandy’s lights out late in the second. Whether or not Franklin decides to do so with a broken arm will be up to him.

As for the lightweights, Guida looks pretty good +275, but is facing a hell of a test in Maynard. “The Bully” is both a much more powerful striker and a stronger wrestler, which doesn’t bode well for Guida’s smother heavy offense. But where Guida does hold an edge is in his cardio, which is best described as “Mario with unlimited star power.” If Guida stands any chance of winning this, it will be by dragging Maynard into the latter rounds of this five round affair, as Maynard has shown the tendency to slow as things go on, and somehow grind out a decision over him. We don’t see it happening either.

The Good Dogs: If you read this and Mike Russow’s name immediately popped into your mind, we’d ask you to sit back in your chair, take a moment to assess your life, and then have the nearest person hit you in the face really fuckin’ hard. We don’t care how far back his win streak dates (it’s 2007) or how much punishment he can absorb (lots), if the same Fabricio Werdum that mangled Roy Nelson shows up on Saturday, Russow best pray “Vai Cavalo” pisses dirty afterward, because that is the only way he is walking out of this with any sense of victory. Russow ain’t gonna be able to take Werdum down, he damn sure ain’t gonna submit him, and if he somehow manages to knock Fabricio out, I will allow one of my biggest haters to come to my home and punch me in the stomach on camera. Afterward, I will treat them to a classy seafood dinner (I’m looking at you, Carmen.)

The two best dogs are undoubtedly Ricardo Lamas and T.J. Waldburger. Although Hatsu Hioki looked levels above his UFC debut in his most recent win over Bart Palaszewski, Lamas has looked as good as any featherweight since coming to the UFC, crushing Matt Grice before choking out Cub Swanson. Waldburger, on the other hand, has shown an incredible ability to snatch a submission when the opportunity presents itself. Even though he has looked much more well rounded as of late, Ebersole has shown a weakness in the past for submissions, so a small side bet on either fighter could be worth your time. We don’t know much about the TUF Brazil finalists, being that we could barely keep up with the American version of the show this season, but we do know that the one middleweight finalist remaining, Cezar Ferreira, will be fighting a semifinalist coming in with less than week’s notice in Sergio Moraes, so he’ll likely be walking away with the glass plaque.

The Solid Picks: Say what you want about how his run on TUF 14 ended, but Steve Siler looked absolutely brilliant against Cole Miller at UFC on FX 2, battering the fellow TUF veteran and controlling the fight en route to a UD win. He’s listed as a pick ‘em against the untested and undefeated prospect Joey Gambino, but should be able to handle him. How Matt Brown is only listed as a slight favorite over a guy who was absolutely steamrolled by Erick Silva in his UFC debut is beyond us, but might be due to the fact that well, Silva has dominated all of his opponents thus far. In either case, Brown all the way.

The Trilogy Match: Considering both Spencer Fisher and Sam Stout’s inconsistency problems as of late, perhaps the odds between the two should be a bit closer. Plus, “The King” could be looking at his last fight in the octagon, so you gotta imagine he’s not going to want to leave this one in the hands of the judges. But Fisher has looked incredibly lackluster as of late, and when comparing lackluster to Stout’s simple mediocrity, we’ll take mediocrity every time. Stout by decision.

Official CagePotato parlay: Maynard + Stout + Pearson

Suggested wager for a $50 stake
$25 on the parlay
$10 on a Bezzera + Dias + Franklin parlay
$10 on Lamas
$5 on Wandy for nostalgia’s sake

–J. Jones

Make Sure to Swing By for the UFC on FX 4: Maynard vs. Guida Weigh-Ins LIVE at 4 p.m. EST

(Ah, the Rumbleweight Diet, or as it’s known to the general public, the Fatkins diet. Well, played, Mr. Guida.)

Just a reminder to make sure and swing by CagePotato at 4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT to catch the live weigh-ins and results for tomorrow night’s UFC on FX 4: Maynard vs. Guida event, which goes down from the Revel Casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey.

Although the card may be somewhat lacking in terms of drawing power, it does feature some top to bottom great matchups that are sure to entertain. And let’s be honest, it’s more stacked than any pay-per-view event you’ll be ~~purchasing~~ stealing this weekend. Aside from the five round main event between perennial lightweight contenders Clay Guida and Gray Maynard, we will be treated to the anticipated trilogy bout between Spencer Fisher and Sam Stout, which may very well be Fisher’s last in the octagon, as well as a pair of great contests between Muay Thai “Bad Boy” Brian Ebersole and submission whiz T.J. Walburger and featherweight sluggers Ross Pearson and Cub Swanson. The undercard kicks off with the long-awaited return of our boy Dan Miller, who will be taking on Brazilian Ricardo Funch.

We will be liveblogging all of the action starting tomorrow at 9 p.m ET, so if your Friday is looking less than spectacular, why not spend an evening with your favorite drunken slobs?

Video and full results after the jump.

(Ah, the Rumbleweight Diet, or as it’s known to the general public, the Fatkins diet. Well, played, Mr. Guida.)

We will be liveblogging all of the action starting tomorrow at 9 p.m ET, so if your Friday is looking less than spectacular, why not spend an evening with your favorite drunken slobs?

-God Damn do I hate the music chosen for these events, or at least the undercards. I can deal with the chuga-chuga riffing present for the main card, but that hokey blues riff makes me want to cut off my fuggin’ ears with a spork. It’s even worse than the placement of the FOX football music on the actual broadcasts.

-Am I the only one who thinks Cub Swanson looks like the freakish offspring of Chris Bosh and Justin Timberlake?

-Either the scales are a little off, or Anthony Johnson really was handing out chicken wings backstage, because everyone seems to be on the heavier side of their allotted weight limit.

Main Card (FX Channel):
Gray Maynard (155) vs. Clay Guida (155)
Spencer Fisher (156) vs. Sam Stout (155.5)
Brian Ebersole (170) vs. T.J. Waldburger (170.5)
Ross Pearson (146) vs. Cub Swanson (145.5)

Preliminary Card (FUEL TV):
Hatsu Hioki (145.5) vs. Ricardo Lamas (145)
C.J. Keith (157*) vs. Ramsey Nijem (156)
Joey Gambino (145.5) vs. Steven Siler (145.5)
Rick Story (169.5) vs. Brock Jardine (170.5)
Luis Ramos (170) vs. Matt Brown (170.5)
Chris Camozzi (185.5) vs. Nick Catone (185.5)

Preliminary Card (Facebook):
Ricardo Funch (170.5) vs. Dan Miller (170.5)
Dustin Pague (135) vs. Ken Stone (135.5)

*Keith has an hour to drop one pound. Not great for a UFC debut.

–J. Jones

Holy Sh*t, Tito Ortiz’s New Training Compound is Off the Chain, Yo [VIDEO]

(Rule #1 Tito: ALWAYS check for an Adam’s apple before you make your move.)

When we first heard that former UFC lightweight champion Tito Ortiz had purchased Oscar De La Hoya’s training compound, with only one fight left in his career, mind you, we just wrote it off as the kind of business decision that got him fired by Donald Trump. But if you know anything about “The People’s Champ,” you know that the guy more than makes up for his interview skills with business savvy. We may not be sure of the exact figure Tito dropped on this Big Bear Lake-side abode, but you only need to catch a glimpse of the place to realize it was worth it.

Fair warning: the euphoric feeling you will receive as the incredibly gorgeous, CagePotato-loving Corissa Furr leads you around this rustic villa on the latest episode of Ultimate Insider will immediately be followed by the crushing realization that you will NEVER live in a place so nice no matter how hard you try.

Video after the jump.

(Rule #1 Tito: ALWAYS check for an Adam’s apple before you make your move.)

First off, was anyone aware that Ortiz and Jenna Jameson were back together? The last we remember, these two were going at it on Twitter like a pair of attention-whoring celebutants. Secondly, what in holy Hell has happened to Jenna Jameson’s face? It looks like some Tijuana back alley surgeon stretched a piece of bologna over Gwyneth Paltrow’s elbow for Christ’s sake. That is not the same woman that captured America’s ~~penises~~ hearts with her acting talents just under a decade ago.

As if the house wasn’t enough to make you turn green with envy, one look at Ortiz’s car collection might just make you curse the heavens above for giving you the body structure and fighting ability of a thirteen year old girl. Not that we could relate, because the CP staff is built like the O’Doyle family and treats the rest of the MMA world as such. But anyway, a Rolls Royce Phantom, which Ortiz describes as “like a house on wheels, literally, that’s how much it cost” and 2012 Porsche rest outside his training facility, along with a few vehicles Ortiz probably didn’t have the time to talk about — apparently he isn’t aware that bitches really give it up for a Ford Fiesta covered in Spice Girls stickers from the previous owner.

Around the three minute mark you will find that *spoiler* De La Hoya actually built two houses on the grounds, the second of which contains yet another billiards table, a monster-sized jacuzzi, and a double staircase straight out of Scarface. All I’m saying is, if I had a place like this, not even the hundred men or more described in Toto’s “Africa” could drag me away from it. Then again, if the old hag I am currently throwing it to ever has the common decency to croak already, I may just get that opportunity.

Ortiz, on the other hand, will get the opportunity to retire Forrest Griffin from life at UFC 148, which goes down from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas on July 7th.

–J. Jones

Heads Up: This Friday Could Be Spencer Fisher’s Swan Song

(And here we thought Canadians were afraid of a good old fashioned war.)

It seems that lately it has become harder and harder to gauge what an MMA fighter means exactly by the word “retirement.” UFC Hall of Famer Randy Couture has finally come to terms with his, whereas Jamie Varner apparently retired as part of an elaborate heist that involved almost immediately coming out of said retirement, picking up a couple quick wins in a small promotion, filling in as a late injury replacement against a huge favorite, and promptly screwing millions of people out of their hard earned money. And to think, George Clooney need the help of more than a dozen people to rob some measly casino. Chump.

According to the man himself, we might just see long time UFC lightweight Spencer Fisher add his name to the list of recently retired MMA fighters come Friday night, as he told Ariel Helwani that he’s “pretty sure” it will be his last fight as a professional. His reasoning was similar to that of Chris Lytle’s — desire to spend more time with his family:

I’ve been missing a lot of stuff with my family. It gets tougher and tougher as they get older.

Although “The King” has flown under the radar for the past few years, dropping four of his past five contests, he is without a doubt one of the more exciting guys that helped the UFC’s lightweight division rise to popularity following its reinstatement in the promotion at UFC 58, which coincidentally was where Fisher made his lightweight debut against none other than his opponent on Friday, Sam Stout.

It is perhaps the most fitting end to a career that one could ask for.

(And here we thought Canadians were afraid of a good old fashioned war.)

I’ve been missing a lot of stuff with my family. It gets tougher and tougher as they get older.

It is perhaps the most fitting end to a career that one could ask for.

Few can forget the pair’s first two meetings, which took place at UFC 58 and Ultimate Fight Night 10, respectively. The bouts were not only split between the two foes, but were in damn near every fan’s top ten fights of the year on both occasions. The third meeting promises to deliver the same back-and-forth action that we are used to, which is something that Fisher admits he is looking forward to:

No pressure. I want to go out there and fight. Swing for the fences. I don’t have to find him. He’ll be right there in the middle.

Aside from his pair of fights with Stout, the seven year UFC veteran is perhaps best known for his brilliant walk-off knockout of Matt Wiman at UFC 60. Even more beautiful than the knockout itself was what came just seconds before: As was the case when Rashad Evans decided to start shit talking to Lyoto Machida mid-flurry, Wiman decided that it would be best to let the crowd know he was fine following a right hand that Fisher clipped him with, and was immediately taught a lesson in octagon humility compliments of a flying knee that looked more like, as Couture described it, “a fullback running for the goal line from a yard away.”

Fisher also holds notable wins over Thiago Alves, Josh Neer, Aaron Riley, Dan Lauzon, Caol Uno, and Jeremy Stephens. If Friday truly does mark his final fight in the UFC, we here at CagePotato would like to thank Spencer for the years of great fights and wish him all the best in the future. We will leave you with another highlight of Fisher’s, one that came just a few months before his UFC debut, in which he sends TUF 12 veteran Kyle Watson crashing to the canvas with a brutal 1-2 combo and proceeds to perform the best impression of Chris Farley’s Chippendale dancer routine that we’ve ever seen:

(Fight starts at the 1:30 mark.)

Leave Spencer your best regards in the comments section, and make sure to swing by on Friday night, where some asshat you refer to as Danga will be liveblogging the UFC on FX: Maynard vs. Guida main card starting at 9 p.m. EST.

–J. Jones

Sign of the Apocalypse #103: The UFC is Offering Full Refunds for UFC 147

(A typical WNBA game, or a preview of UFC 147?)

Wow.

We may have been forced to watch every UFC card planned for this summer slowly disintegrate into a vapid shell of what they once were, but even the precogs we keep chained up in the basement of CP headquarters could not see this coming. Due to the seemingly endless string of injuries that has threatened to consume UFC 147 in a fiery ball of mediocrity, the UFC is offering any fan who already purchased a ticket for said event a full refund.

It should be noted that this has never happened in the history of the UFC.

Although we imagine most fans who met that criteria likely took to Ebay after it was announced that Vitor Belfort had broken his hand, we still can’t believe that the UFC is essentially admitting defeat on a card that somehow still remains at pay-per-view status. Let us drop some knowledge on you: The last UFC PPV that failed to break the 200k buy mark was UFC 55: Fury, which topped off at a little over 125,000 buys. Featuring what was essentially a squash match heavyweight title fight between Andrei Arlovski and Paul Buentello (which was over before those in attendance could order a soft pretzel), as well as Forrest Griffin vs. Elvis freakin’ Sinosic as the co-main event and Chael Sonnen’s continuing struggle to defend a triangle choke, UFC 55’s pay-per-view numbers were simply an accurate reflection of the card’s weakness.

Needless to say, UFC 147 looks like it is primed to shatter that record by a good fifty or sixty thousand buys in the opposite direction.

(A typical WNBA game, or a preview of UFC 147?)

Wow.

It should be noted that this has never happened in the history of the UFC.

Although we imagine most fans who met that criteria likely took to Ebay after it was announced that Vitor Belfort had broken his hand, we still can’t believe that the UFC is essentially admitting defeat on a card that somehow still remains at pay-per-view status. Let us drop some knowledge on you: The last UFC PPV that failed to break the 200k buy mark was UFC 55: Fury, which topped off at a little over 125,000 buys. Featuring what was essentially a squash match heavyweight title fight between Andrei Arlovski and Paul Buentello (which was over before those in attendance could order a soft pretzel), as well as Forrest Griffin vs. Elvis freakin’ Sinosic as the co-main event and Chael Sonnen’s continuing struggle to defend a triangle choke, UFC 55′s pay-per-view numbers were simply an accurate reflection of the card’s weakness.

Needless to say, UFC 147 looks like it is primed to shatter that record by a good fifty or sixty thousand buys in the opposite direction. The fact that they are offering refunds to those who actually intended on seeing the event live doesn’t bode well for the live gate and attendance numbers either. We’d go as far as to predict that the end of the night bonuses will be somewhere in the realm of the average Super Fight League event.

But there is a catch for those of you who suddenly aren’t too happy with your tickets. According to UFC.com, fans seeking a refund best get on it immediamente, because the window of opportunity is rapidly closing:

With the change on the main card, fans who purchased tickets for the event will now officially have three (3) days to decide whether to seek a full refund.

In what has become almost a given at this point, UFC.com also broke the news that yet another TUF: Brazil competitor that was scheduled to fight at UFC 147 has caught the injury bug, and his bout against Renee Forte has been cancelled altogether:

Seven of the 11 bouts at UFC 147 will feature contestants from the first season of TUF Brazil. Due to the injury and the loss of his opponent, Renee Forte will be unable to fight and will make an appearance on a future UFC card. All bouts live and subject to change.

Does anyone else think we will be seeing an empty arena come UFC 147? And what about those who have purchased a ticket for UFC 149, which has seen even more opponents fall to injury than UFC 147?

“All bouts subject to change.” No shit.

–J. Jones

Barnburner Alert: Che Mills vs. Duane Ludwig Booked for UFC on FUEL 5

(Duane, how many times do I have to tell you to STOP SLEEPING ON THE JOB??!!!!)

Well, well, well…it looks like the UFC has finally delivered a free card matchup that doesn’t make us yearn for the days of Arlovski/Sylvia III. Word just broke (and by just, we mean a good six or seven hours ago) that veteran strikers Duane “Bang” Ludwig and Che Mills have been paired up for UFC on FUEL 5, which goes down on September 29, 2012 at the Capital FM Arena in Nottingham, England and features a headlining matchup between heavyweight contenders Stefan Struve and Stipe Miocic. Mills broke the news via his Twitter:

(Duane, how many times do I have to tell you to STOP SLEEPING ON THE JOB??!!!!)

After stringing together a pair of wins over Nick Osipczak and Amir Sodallah to save his UFC career, Ludwig again finds himself with his back against the wall. He has dropped his last two contests to Josh Neer (via Ambienotine) and Dan Hardy (via lead left hook of death) and could be looking at his final fight under the promotion if he is not successful against Mills. From all accounts, Ludwig is one of the nicest guys in the sport, so let’s hope he brings his A-game against Mills, who is coming off a loss of his own to welterweight wrecking machine Rory MacDonald at UFC 145. The loss snapped a five fight win streak for Mills, who kicked off his UFC career by almost kneeing off Chris Cope’s head at UFC 138. Luckily, we’ve managed to find the crappiest quality footage possible of that fight, which we’ve placed for you below.

One thing’s for sure, we won’t have to worry about either man’s grappling credentials (or lack thereof) coming into play. This should make for a hell of an addition to a card that has a distinct lack of drawing power at the moment, so who you got, Potato Nation?

–J. Jones