UFC on Fox 3: Why the Main Event Isn’t the Most Important Fight

What’s the simple answer to the question of which fight is most important Saturday night? The main event, obviously. That’s why it’s the main event.But it’s not always that simple with UFC cards, especially when it comes to thei…

What’s the simple answer to the question of which fight is most important Saturday night? The main event, obviously. That’s why it’s the main event.

But it’s not always that simple with UFC cards, especially when it comes to their UFC on Fox outings.

The first one obviously was all about the main event: Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos, in a real life clash of the titans. And while that fight is viewed today as something of a letdown, I take some comfort in the fact that unlike the film “Clash of the Titans”, Velazquez vs. dos Santos only took 64 seconds to disappoint you on every level, while not featuring Sam Worthington in any way. So there’s that.

Then there was UFC on Fox 2, headlined by Rashad Evans in his millionth or so No. 1 contender’s bout against Phil Davis. Now I don’t know about you, but to just about everyone at the bar I was watching at, the real main event was the Chael Sonnen vs. Mike Bisping co-main event.

Sure, both fights were slower, mostly wrestling-based affairs with little drama—yet the only complaint we leveled against Sonnen was that he didn’t insult nearly enough ethnic minorities in his post-fight interview.

Now we have UFC on Fox 3 (yep, I can still count) headlined by Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller. Again, it would seem that the main event is the biggest fight of the night—but I’m not so sure. This is the deepest card yet for a UFC on Fox event, stacked with interesting and relevant fights.

Which one is the most important—let’s find out, shall we?

And just to help you out (and because I’m feeling crazy), I’ve already numbered them in order of importance.

 

4. Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks

Is it just me, or do the fellows at AKA have a weird thing with avenging each other’s losses?

When Paulo Thiago knocked Koscheck out cold, the next guy he faced was Jon Fitch. Then he faced Mike Swick a few months later. For a long time, it seemed the entire AKA camp was calling out Matt Hughes—before Kos fought him. When Fitch was himself knocked silly by Johny Hendricks, Koscheck was eager to step up as his next opponent.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t make this fight all that important. Sure, Hendricks is one of the biggest rising stars in the welterweight division, while Kos is one of the biggest names at 170. But what would a win do for either man in this situation? Neither guy is getting a title shot until Condit/GSP happens (and it’s debatable if Kos will even get another shot), so they’re more or less spinning their wheels here.

Look at the list of who either man would face with a win, and who they would face with a loss. When they’re more or less the same list, you know it’s not the most important fight in the world.

 

3. Pat Berry vs. Lavar Johnson

Somehow, Pat Berry has managed to manoeuvre himself into an extremely enviable position in the UFC.

Why do I say that? Because despite being nowhere near the title picture, despite being only .500 in his UFC career and only 7-4 as a professional, despite obvious and glaring holes in his game, and despite some ridiculously high profile losses—Pat Berry is still, against all odds, “the man.”

He’s a guy the UFC pushes and that fans respond to, yet absolutely nothing is expected of him beyond an entertaining fight. He could do nothing but “fun” fights, and he’s still be one of the most well-liked guys in the heavyweight division.

Lucky guy.

In the night’s opening bout, Barry faces former WEC and Strikeforce veteran Lavar Johnson. Call me cynical, but the only Lavar I’ve ever cared about was the one who kept the engines of the Enterprise running while wearing a headband on his face and teaching children about the joys of reading in his spare time.

Fun fight, but not all that important to anyone not named Barry or Johnson.

 

2. Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller

OH SNAP! C’mon, you didn’t really think I would go to the trouble of making this list and then NOT swerve the main event out of the No. 1 spot, did you?

Now don’t get me wrong: Diaz vs. Miller is a very important fight, one that will determine the next challenger to the Frankie Edgar world title. Excuse me, I meant the lightweight world title. So obviously, there’s plenty on the line for either guy in this fight. And that’s to say nothing of the almost guaranteed fireworks this fight promises to be.

So it’s important, no doubt.

Still, it doesn’t snag that top spot because promised title shots in the lightweight division are almost worthless at this point. Just ask Anthony Pettis about the value of a “guaranteed” title shot at 155 when we’re only ever a draw or close decision away from seeing Frankie Edgar bounce back from adversity stronger than ever!

No, I’m afraid the top honours in this irrelevant, entirely arbitrary ranking must go to:

 

1. Rousimar Palhares vs. Alan Belcher

Now why in God’s name, you ask, is this fight featuring two middle-of-the-pack middleweights (there’s a tongue-twister for you) more important than a #1 contender’s fight in a deeper division?

Well there’s your answer right there: Middleweight is shallow. I’ve used this analogy before, but basically I see the entire middleweight division as the Justice League.

There’s Superman, all-powerful, all-mighty, pretty much invincible—and a bunch of other folks who do only some of what he does and nowhere near as well. One wonders why someone like Green Arrow even bothers strapping on his bow and arrow when Superman can crush coal into diamonds, take a nuke to the face without blinking, fly through the heart of the sun and come back before he’s managed to pull his green tights past his ass?

Yes, I’m talking about Anderson Silva, who’s made middleweight seem extremely uninteresting by how totally and completely he’s outclassed the entire division.

Sure, there’s Chael Sonnen (the Lex Luthor to Silva’s bald, pink t-shirt wearing, disco-dancing Clark Kent) but aside from that: Who else do you see challenging for the middleweight title? It’s not a long list, and pretty much no one on it will convince Joe E. Casual Fan to plunk down his $49.99.

So this fight matters because of the chance—however remote—that one of these guys establishes himself as a star outside Andy’s shadow. It’s not that far-fetched when you think about it. Neither guy has ever faced Anderson before, so no footage exists of his soul being devoured by a slender looking Brazilian man with an effeminate voice.

And both men are already carving out niches of their own with MMA fans. Palhares is quickly making a name for himself with his ripped physique, and propensity for alternating incredible submissions with absolutely mind-numbingly stupid decisions in the cage. And most fans already know Belcher as the owner of MMA’s worst tattoo, so…that’s something, I guess.

Here’s hoping one of these guys (ah hell, I hope it’s Palhares—simply because he’s the closest thing I’ve ever seen to a real-life video game character outside of Anderson himself) breaks through on Saturday night and gives fans something new to care about at middleweight. 

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC on FOX 3 Edition

On the heels of what was a hugely successful (both in terms of action and PPV sales) UFC 145, the UFC will look to keep the momentum going with this weekend’s UFC on FOX 3 card, which features a smorgasbord of great match-ups (praise be to Joe Silva). And the only way to make a great thing even better would be to walk away with a little extra moolah, don’t you think? Because, to paraphrase what Bobby McFerrin once said, “If you don’t have cash, you don’t have style, and you sure as hell don’t have a gal to make you smile.” Something like that. So check out the tasty betting lines below, courtesy of BestFightOdds, and follow us after the jump for some sound advice that will surely score you one out of the three McFerrin keys to success. And don’t worry, none of the spreads are as insane as the current Akihiro Gono/Michael Chandler odds, which more closely resemble your chances of sleeping with Halle Berry, winning the lottery, and surviving a public bus fire in the same day. 

Main Card 
Jim Miller (-220) vs. Nate Diaz (+180)
Pat Barry (-210) vs. Lavar Johnson (+175)
Johny Hendricks (-120) vs. Josh Koscheck (+100)
Rousimar Palhares (-280) vs. Alan Belcher (+240)

Preliminary Card
Dennis Bermudez (-175) vs. Pablo Garza (+145)
Tony Ferguson (-270) vs. Michael Johnson (+210)
John Dodson (-400) vs. Tim Elliot (+300)*
Pascal Krause (-140) vs. John Hathaway (+110)*
John Linker (-150) vs. Louis Gaudinot (+120)*
John Cholish (-130) vs. Danny Castillo (EV)*
Roland Delorme (-130) vs. Nick Denis (EV)*
Mike Massenzio (-185) vs. Karlos Vemola (+145)*

*These lines are taken from Opposingviews.com, which has far different lines than BestFightOdds for the main card fights. They are the only site, however, with current odds for the given fights. 

Thoughts…

On the heels of what was a hugely successful (both in terms of action and PPV sales) UFC 145, the UFC will look to keep the momentum going with this weekend’s UFC on FOX 3 card, which features a smorgasbord of great match-ups (praise be to Joe Silva). And the only way to make a great thing even better would be to walk away with a little extra moolah, don’t you think? Because, to paraphrase what Bobby McFerrin once said, “If you don’t have cash, you don’t have style, and you sure as hell don’t have a gal to make you smile.” Something like that. So check out the tasty betting lines below, courtesy of BestFightOdds, and follow us after the jump for some sound advice that will surely score you one out of the three McFerrin keys to success. And don’t worry, none of the spreads are as insane as the current Akihiro Gono/Michael Chandler odds, which more closely resemble your chances of sleeping with Halle Berry, winning the lottery, and surviving a public bus fire in the same day. 

Main Card 
Jim Miller (-220) vs. Nate Diaz (+180)
Pat Barry (-210) vs. Lavar Johnson (+175)
Johny Hendricks (-120) vs. Josh Koscheck (+100)
Rousimar Palhares (-280) vs. Alan Belcher (+240)

Preliminary Card
Dennis Bermudez (-175) vs. Pablo Garza (+145)
Tony Ferguson (-270) vs. Michael Johnson (+210)
John Dodson (-400) vs. Tim Elliot (+300)*
Pascal Krause (-140) vs. John Hathaway (+110)*
John Linker (-150) vs. Louis Gaudinot (+120)*
John Cholish (-130) vs. Danny Castillo (EV)*
Roland Delorme (-130) vs. Nick Denis (EV)*
Mike Massenzio (-185) vs. Karlos Vemola (+145)*

*These lines are taken from Opposingviews.com, which has far different lines than BestFightOdds for the main card fights. They are the only site, however, with current odds for the given fights. 

Thoughts…

The Main Event: A lot is on the line for Nate Diaz come Saturday night. Sure, he’s looked nothing short of perfect in his victories over Takanori Gomi and Donald Cerrone, but Jim Miller is not a technically flawed striker in the twilight of his career, nor is he a brawler that will let his pre-fight emotions get the best of him. We all know that this fight is going to come down to a Diaz’s ability to stop a takedown, which has proved to be their undoing time and time again. That being said, we will NEVER count a Diaz out. Their ability to make a fighter look completely off their game is second to none, and they have few holes in their game to exploit (wrestling aside, of course). We’d recommend keeping Miller in your parlay, but placing a decent-sized side wager on Diaz is definitely a smart move.

The Dogs: Anytime Josh Koscheck is listed as an underdog, it’s probably worth your time (unless he’s fighting GSP). A bet on him won’t get you much in return, but the same goes twice over for Hendricks. There are several things to consider when looking at this matchup. First off, let’s look at the obvious: both guys come from a wrestling background, and both guys have solid power in their hands. Secondly, let’s look at their last fights: Kos looked rather one-dimensional in his squeaker victory over Mike Pierce, whereas Hendricks showed us that he only needs one punch to turn your lights off against Jon Fitch. Where you want to place your bet is mainly dependent on whether or not you think Hendricks will be able to defend Kos’ takedowns, or whether he can finish him before he’ll have to. Then again, maybe Koscheck’s new training camp has helped him add a few tools to his toolbox. What we’re saying is; a vote for Koscheck is a vote for tools.

At +240, Alan Belcher would look pretty damn tempting…if he wasn’t fighting a genetically engineered, psychopathic wildebeest in Rousimar Palhares. With and ever-improving striking game, as documented in his typically disorienting win over Dan Miller, ”Toquinho” has made the step up from “mini-Hulk” to full-on “eater of worlds,” and there’s nothing we can do to stop him. Unless Belcher catches Palhares early, he is going to be limping out of that octagon. The ONLY reason we are going to place a small bet on “The Talent” is because of the large chance that this fight will end by some form of DQ as a result of Palhares’ frenetic incompetence. Also, we’re masochists. Also, Belcher’s Johnny Cash tattoo.

As for the undercard, one name that stands out is John Hathaway. For a while, many people thought he was going to be the next big thing at 170. A loss to Mike Pyle all but derailed his hype train, and the fact that he’s spent a year on the shelf doesn’t help matters. Until you look at Pascal Krauss, that is, who has spent even more time on the shelf nursing various injuries, and whose only UFC win came over a late injury replacement. Hathaway should have this, just like he would have had it if these two had met at UFC 138 like God intended.

Stay the Hell Away From: The Lavar Johnson/Barry brawl. Barry is undoubtedly the more technical striker, but Johnson has a pair of Mac trucks at the end of his arms, and we’ve seen Barry fall to an inferior striker before (seriously, TRY and convince us Cheick Kongo was anything but). We think Barry will be able to catch Johnson first, but if you really want to place money on this one, save it for a prop bet on whether or not the fight lasts over a round and a half. Our bet is it doesn’t.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Miller + Palhares + Ferguson

Suggested stake for a $50 wager
$25 on the parlay
$10 on a Diaz-Hathaway parlay
$10 on Koscheck
$5 on Belcher

-J. Jones

UFC on Fox 3: 5 Bold Predictions for May 5

UFC on Fox 3 is stacked up to be an exciting event which will determine the title shot standings for several of the rising stars in mixed martial arts today.The outcome of this event will most likely rank Diaz or Miller as next in line for a title shot…

UFC on Fox 3 is stacked up to be an exciting event which will determine the title shot standings for several of the rising stars in mixed martial arts today.

The outcome of this event will most likely rank Diaz or Miller as next in line for a title shot after Henderson and Edgar duke it out one more time for the lightweight championship belt.

May 5 may also solidify Josh Koscheck’s second chance at welterweight gold or give Johny Hendricks his first shot at the title once Condit and St. Pierre unify the welterweight belt at an unknown time.

I’m also looking forward to watching Rousimar Palahares try to enforce his brutal submission game on the Muay Thai talents of Alan Belcher. The winner of this fight could find themselves fighting for the number-one contender’s spot if they can bring home a W after this event.

It is without a doubt the purpose of this card to bring mainstream attention and glory to the next possible champions for the lightweight, welterweight and middleweight division. Here are my predictions about which fighters will be garnering all that fame.

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Alan Belcher Somehow Believes He’s Going to Submit Rousimar Palhares

Your unintentional comedy of the day comes from UFC middleweight Alan Belcher, who told CouchFighter that he may have a unique game plan heading into his UFC on FOX 3 fight with Rousimar Palhares:I feel honored the UFC family wanted me to be on [the FO…

Your unintentional comedy of the day comes from UFC middleweight Alan Belcher, who told CouchFighter that he may have a unique game plan heading into his UFC on FOX 3 fight with Rousimar Palhares:

I feel honored the UFC family wanted me to be on [the FOX] card and believed in my abilities and show the fans that I’m gonna be a champ. I’m one of the top contenders and I’m ready to prove it. I’d be stupid to try and force a grappling match. I’m gonna use my strength, my strategy, not that I can’t grapple, but he can’t really strike that good. It’s a huge advantage for me just by keeping it on the feet. He’s gonna have to get me in one of those situations and I’m not gonna let that happen. Best of luck to him, I don’t think he’s gonna get a hold of me and do anything. I’m a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Some people might be surprised but I’ll give him a nice little run on the ground and may submit him.

I don’t want to slander Belcher’s ground skills. He’s a very good ground fighter and has the submission chops to give just about anyone in the middleweight division a run for their money.

But Palhares, obviously, is not a run-of-the-mill ground fighter. Put simply, he’s one of the very best in mixed martial arts, a wizard with leglocks and the kind of grip strength that allows him to grab onto you and never let go until he’s ready to do so.

He’s also one of the most vicious submission artists in the game. Look at the heel hook he applied to Tomasz Drwal back in 2010 for a perfect example. Not only did Palhares injure Drwal, but he refused to let go of the submission once Drwal tapped out. For that little transgression, Palhares was suspended for 90 days.

Let’s hope, for his sake, that Belcher is kidding about giving Palhares a run for his money on the ground. If he insists on using that game plan, he’s going to find himself in a world of hurt.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

UFC on FOX 3: Head to Toe Breakdown of Alan Belcher vs. Rousimar Palhares

If Alan Belcher wants to win his fight against Rousimar Palhares, he needs to avoid the fight going to the ground.If Rousimar Palhares wants to win the fight, he needs to make sure the fight gets there.In the end, it’s as simple as that, but what are t…

If Alan Belcher wants to win his fight against Rousimar Palhares, he needs to avoid the fight going to the ground.

If Rousimar Palhares wants to win the fight, he needs to make sure the fight gets there.

In the end, it’s as simple as that, but what are the chances of each man getting what they want?

Belcher has proven to be competent on the ground and at striking, but Palhares is on another level when it comes to submissions. Indeed, Palhares is considered one of the best in the world when it comes to leg locks and heel hooks.

He has submitted three opponents in the UFC by heel hook and one by kneebar. That isn’t including the other opponent he took out with an armbar.

Belcher has won submission of the night on two occasions himself, but playing to his opponent’s strength would be a mistake. Belcher has the skills to keep the fight from going to the ground and the striking game to win the match.

He has been in a fight of the night twice, and while he is 1-1 in those bouts, his one loss was a close one. He must turn this match into a scrapper if he is intent on getting his hand raised.

Palhares has only one win by knockout. What’s more, in a fight with Dan Henderson, he showed how limited he was when it came to being a complete MMA fighter. Palhares is already 32 and there is little chance of him changing his ways now.

Belcher has to be careful of Palhares changing levels and transitioning to his patented leg submissions or trying to goad him to the ground. If he can be patient, and be willing to hear more then a few boos in the process, he will come out victorious.

Belcher has shown an evolution in his mindset and in his skills inside the cage. While the Arkansas native will have some cage rust, having last fought in September 2011, he should have enough to beat his opponent and move on to the next one.

Expect a Belcher victory by unanimous decision.

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Quick Quote of the Day: Demian Maia Seriously Contemplating Move to Welterweight

Demian Maia is a tough fighter to wrap your head around. One day, the onetime middleweight contender is choking out Chael Sonnen and handling a guy like Jorge Santiago the next he’s being dominated by Mark Munoz and Chris Weidman. The one thing the Brazilian jiu-jitsu standout, who is 9-4 in the Octagon has lacked in his career is consistency, which explains why he’s ready perhaps to make a change.

Maia, who admits he sometimes struggles to maintain his 198-pound walking around weight, told Tatame recently that he’s been thinking  about dropping down a weight class to fight at 170 pounds.

Demian Maia is a tough fighter to wrap your head around. One day, the onetime middleweight contender is choking out Chael Sonnen and handling a guy like Jorge Santiago the next he’s being dominated by Mark Munoz and Chris Weidman. The one thing the Brazilian jiu-jitsu standout, who is 9-4 in the Octagon has lacked in his career is consistency, which explains why he’s ready perhaps to make a change.

Maia, who admits he sometimes struggles to maintain his 198-pound walking around weight, told Tatame recently that he’s been thinking  about dropping down a weight class to fight at 170 pounds.

“It has not been decided yet [for sure]. I’ve always said it was a possibility… I usually have to make much effort to keep 198lbs and I gotta eat a lot not to lose weight because it’s easy for me. I’m getting healed from my hand (hand surgery), which is almost good. I’m taking a week off because it’s been a while since I haven’t taken some time to rest. Now that I’m not training and eating what I want I weight 194lbs, more or less. When it’s close to the fight I cut weight and leave the last 11 to 13lbs to lose at the very end.”

Maia is recovering from hand surgery following a break he sustained his loss to Chris Weidman at  last month, but is hoping to be back 10 100 percent by the summer so he can fight on the next planned card in Rio.

“I hope to be ready in June. We’re getting back to training now and I’ll fight in June if I have to,” he explains. “I’ll be ready.”

Who do you think he should face if he debuts at 170?

Mike Swick, Jon Fitch or Josh Koscheck, perhaps? Personally, I’d like to see him face Alan Belcher like he was scheduled to do before we write him off as a middleweight.