We know a lot and a little about Gray Maynard. We know he’s one of the best lightweights in the world—a gritty wrestler who has power in his hands and the sheer physicality that few men can match at 155 pounds. We know he’s a guy that…
We know a lot and a little about Gray Maynard.
We know he’s one of the best lightweights in the world—a gritty wrestler who has power in his hands and the sheer physicality that few men can match at 155 pounds.
We know he’s a guy that sometimes makes it hard to root for him—be it because of posturing outside of the cage or uninteresting performances inside of it.
We know he thinks he should be lightweight champion, or at least he thought he should have been until Frankie Edgar knocked him senseless in their third meeting.
Directly related to that, we know he just can’t find a way to beat Frankie Edgar.
That seems like a lot, but in actuality it really isn’t that much. At least it isn’t that much in a sport that is perhaps more results-driven than any in the world—a sport that can see you become pretty irrelevant pretty quickly if you can’t win a title after two chances in one calendar year.
Going into UFC on FX 4, where he’ll headline against the energetic Clay Guida, that seems to be the only question that matters anymore: will Gray Maynard ever be champion?
It’s easy to argue that he could be. He’s undeniably in the top three at his weight, has very nearly taken the title on two separate occasions and his nemesis from New Jersey no longer has the title that he so hungrily covets (though that could change next month).
Then again, it’s easy to argue that his window has closed, too.
He’s on the wrong side of 30 and has had his chances. He’s only going to see big names and tough guys for the rest of his career, increasing the chances he could fall out of contention. He’s gone through personal and team-based upheaval since his last fight with Edgar, and that may plague him.
There are arguments both ways, and it isn’t hard to make one side particularly convincing. Friday night will go a long way toward uncovering what Maynard’s chances are of becoming champion.
Guida is a tireless, frustrating foe in the same vein of Edgar.
Maynard is coming off his first pro loss and first ever knockout, which are two things that often change the way a fighter approaches the game. He also has to know that with names like Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis, Donald Cerrone and Gilbert Melendez all floating around out there, it won’t take much for him to be a forgotten former challenger instead of a still-important contender.
To answer the question of “will” he be a champion may be too hard to do before seeing him in action on FX. “Can” he is probably more appropriate.
Given the tools he has at his disposal, the answer there is a resounding yes if things can break his way a little.
Will he? Ask again after he goes a few rounds with Clay Guida. The answer might reveal itself quicker than you’d realize.
Did that title totally blow your freakin minds?! We know it did, but for those of you who still remain on the planet Earth after reading it, prepare yourselves for a double dose of down and dirty gambling advice. Thanks to a pair of back-to-back cards and an injury curse the likes of which we’ve never seen before, this weekend’s UFC on FX 4 and UFC 147 events have just enough interesting matchups between them to help you prosper during the greatest American depression since the last great American depression, so lets do some (betting) lines!
UFC 147 Rich Frankin (-170) vs. Wanderlei Silva (+150)
Cezar Ferreira (-260) vs. Sergio Moraes (+200)
Rony Mariano Bezerra (-280) vs. Godofredo de Oliveira (+220) Mike Russow (+400) vs. Fabricio Werdum (-500)
Yuri Alcantara (+220) vs. Hacran Dias (-280) (all figures courtesy of BestFightOdds)
Thoughts…
Did that title totally blow your freakin minds?! We know it did, but for those of you who still remain on the planet Earth after reading it, prepare yourselves for a double dose of down and dirty gambling advice. Thanks to a pair of back-to-back cards and an injury curse the likes of which we’ve never seen before, this weekend’s UFC on FX 4 and UFC 147 events have just enough interesting matchups between them to help you prosper during the greatest American depression since the last great American depression, so lets do some (betting) lines!
UFC 147 Rich Frankin (-170) vs. Wanderlei Silva (+150)
Cezar Ferreira (-260) vs. Sergio Moraes (+200)
Rony Mariano Bezerra (-280) vs. Godofredo de Oliveira (+220) Mike Russow (+400) vs. Fabricio Werdum (-500)
Yuri Alcantara (+220) vs. Hacran Dias (-280) (all figures courtesy of BestFightOdds)
Thoughts…
The Main Events: Gentlemen, we’re basically looking at the greatest pair of main events that a fan could ever hope to ask for, and anyone who says otherwise doesn’t know what they’re talking about. You literally could not get us any more amped if you had an eight ball of coke, a pair of disease-free escorts, and the keys to FAO Shwarz on Christmas Eve.
The odds for those events, however, leave us a little less than enthused. Given the outcome of their first fight, combined with the fact that they are basically fighting at the same catchweight as before, it makes sense to see Franklin as a slight favorite. If either man catches the other, there’s a chance that they can finish them, but while Franklin’s chin may not be what it used to, the same goes quadruple over for Wandy. “Ace” was simply dwarfed by Forrest Griffin in his loss at UFC 126, but will have a slight reach and size advantage over “The Axe Murderer” here, so unless Wandy can manage to catch him with something early, look for Franklin to control the distance and get in and out before landing a 1-2 combo that puts Wandy’s lights out late in the second. Whether or not Franklin decides to do so with a broken arm will be up to him.
As for the lightweights, Guida looks pretty good +275, but is facing a hell of a test in Maynard. “The Bully” is both a much more powerful striker and a stronger wrestler, which doesn’t bode well for Guida’s smother heavy offense. But where Guida does hold an edge is in his cardio, which is best described as “Mario with unlimited star power.” If Guida stands any chance of winning this, it will be by dragging Maynard into the latter rounds of this five round affair, as Maynard has shown the tendency to slow as things go on, and somehow grind out a decision over him. We don’t see it happening either.
The Good Dogs: If you read this and Mike Russow’s name immediately popped into your mind, we’d ask you to sit back in your chair, take a moment to assess your life, and then have the nearest person hit you in the face really fuckin’ hard. We don’t care how far back his win streak dates (it’s 2007) or how much punishment he can absorb (lots), if the same Fabricio Werdum that mangled Roy Nelson shows up on Saturday, Russow best pray “Vai Cavalo” pisses dirty afterward, because that is the only way he is walking out of this with any sense of victory. Russow ain’t gonna be able to take Werdum down, he damn sure ain’t gonna submit him, and if he somehow manages to knock Fabricio out, I will allow one of my biggest haters to come to my home and punch me in the stomach on camera. Afterward, I will treat them to a classy seafood dinner (I’m looking at you, Carmen.)
The two best dogs are undoubtedly Ricardo Lamas and T.J. Waldburger. Although Hatsu Hioki looked levels above his UFC debut in his most recent win over Bart Palaszewski, Lamas has looked as good as any featherweight since coming to the UFC, crushing Matt Grice before choking out Cub Swanson. Waldburger, on the other hand, has shown an incredible ability to snatch a submission when the opportunity presents itself. Even though he has looked much more well rounded as of late, Ebersole has shown a weakness in the past for submissions, so a small side bet on either fighter could be worth your time. We don’t know much about the TUF Brazil finalists, being that we could barely keep up with the American version of the show this season, but we do know that the one middleweight finalist remaining, Cezar Ferreira, will be fighting a semifinalist coming in with less than week’s notice in Sergio Moraes, so he’ll likely be walking away with the glass plaque.
The Solid Picks: Say what you want about how his run on TUF 14 ended, but Steve Siler looked absolutely brilliant against Cole Miller at UFC on FX 2, battering the fellow TUF veteran and controlling the fight en route to a UD win. He’s listed as a pick ‘em against the untested and undefeated prospect Joey Gambino, but should be able to handle him. How Matt Brown is only listed as a slight favorite over a guy who was absolutely steamrolled by Erick Silva in his UFC debut is beyond us, but might be due to the fact that well, Silva has dominated all of his opponents thus far. In either case, Brown all the way.
The Trilogy Match: Considering both Spencer Fisher and Sam Stout’s inconsistency problems as of late, perhaps the odds between the two should be a bit closer. Plus, “The King” could be looking at his last fight in the octagon, so you gotta imagine he’s not going to want to leave this one in the hands of the judges. But Fisher has looked incredibly lackluster as of late, and when comparing lackluster to Stout’s simple mediocrity, we’ll take mediocrity every time. Stout by decision.
Official CagePotato parlay: Maynard + Stout + Pearson
Suggested wager for a $50 stake
$25 on the parlay
$10 on a Bezzera + Dias + Franklin parlay
$10 on Lamas
$5 on Wandy for nostalgia’s sake
(Ah, the Rumbleweight Diet, or as it’s known to the general public, the Fatkins diet. Well, played, Mr. Guida.)
Just a reminder to make sure and swing by CagePotato at 4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT to catch the live weigh-ins and results for tomorrow night’s UFC on FX 4: Maynard vs. Guida event, which goes down from the Revel Casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey.
We will be liveblogging all of the action starting tomorrow at 9 p.m ET, so if your Friday is looking less than spectacular, why not spend an evening with your favorite drunken slobs?
Video and full results after the jump.
(Ah, the Rumbleweight Diet, or as it’s known to the general public, the Fatkins diet. Well, played, Mr. Guida.)
Just a reminder to make sure and swing by CagePotato at 4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT to catch the live weigh-ins and results for tomorrow night’s UFC on FX 4: Maynard vs. Guida event, which goes down from the Revel Casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey.
We will be liveblogging all of the action starting tomorrow at 9 p.m ET, so if your Friday is looking less than spectacular, why not spend an evening with your favorite drunken slobs?
-God Damn do I hate the music chosen for these events, or at least the undercards. I can deal with the chuga-chuga riffing present for the main card, but that hokey blues riff makes me want to cut off my fuggin’ ears with a spork. It’s even worse than the placement of the FOX football music on the actual broadcasts.
-Am I the only one who thinks Cub Swanson looks like the freakish offspring of Chris Bosh and Justin Timberlake?
-Either the scales are a little off, or Anthony Johnson really was handing out chicken wings backstage, because everyone seems to be on the heavier side of their allotted weight limit.
This Friday, the UFC will travel to Atlantic City for the UFC on FX 4 fight card, a card that will be headlined by a lightweight bout between Gray Maynard and Clay Guida. The event will take place at the recently opened Revel Casino.Maynard (10-1-1-1) …
This Friday, the UFC will travel to Atlantic City for the UFC on FX 4 fight card, a card that will be headlined by a lightweight bout between Gray Maynard and Clay Guida. The event will take place at the recently opened Revel Casino.
Maynard (10-1-1-1) enters the match coming off of two consecutive attempts to wrest the UFC lightweight crown from Frankie Edgar. They fought to a draw in one of the first bout and Maynard fell via TKO in the rematch.
Guida (29-12) is also coming off of a loss in his last bout. He dropped a unanimous decision to current lightweight champion Benson Henderson on the UFC on FOX card.
The co-main event of the evening will see Sam Stout (17-7-1) matched up against Spencer Fisher (24-8). Stout and Fisher have met twice before, with each fighter winning once.
The full UFC on FX 4 is below:
Clay Guida vs. Gray Maynard
Spencer Fisher vs. Sam Stout
Brian Ebersole vs. TJ Waldburger
Ross Pearson vs. Cub Swanson
Hatsu Hioki vs. Ricardo Lamas
C.J. Keith vs. Ramsey Nijem
Brock Jardine vs. Rick Story
Joey Gambino vs. Steven Siler
Matt Brown vs. Luis Ramos
Chris Camozzi vs. Nick Catone
Ricardo Funch vs. Dan Miller
Dustin Pague vs. Ken Stone
The fighters will hit the scales on Thursday at 4:00 p.m. ET, Bleacher Report MMA will be live blogging the weigh-ins as they happen.
The summer has officially started and the UFC’s summer of fights is about to begin. And there’s no better way to kick it off than a card on free TV. This Friday’s UFC on FX: Maynard vs. Guida is live from Atlantic City, New Jersey, and will featur…
The summer has officially started and the UFC’s summer of fights is about to begin. And there’s no better way to kick it off than a card on free TV.
This Friday’s UFC on FX: Maynard vs. Guida is live from Atlantic City, New Jersey, and will feature a four-fight main card on FX, six fights on Fuel TV, and the remaining two bouts live on Facebook.
Besides the fact that the card is free, which is reason enough for many to watch, here are 10 more reasons you can’t miss UFC on FX: Maynard vs. Guida.
Whether you just have a short downtime during work or don’t want a lengthy breakdown, these “Quick Breaks” are for you. “Quick Breaks” are short breakdowns of upcoming fights. In a summed-up focus of strengths, weaknesses and variables, thi…
Whether you just have a short downtime during work or don’t want a lengthy breakdown, these “Quick Breaks” are for you. “Quick Breaks” are short breakdowns of upcoming fights. In a summed-up focus of strengths, weaknesses and variables, this will analyze what could happen in the fight and end with this writer’s prediction.
The UFC will be once again be broadcasting on FX this Friday and will be bringing a great headliner matchup between lightweights Gray Maynard and Clay Guida. The UFC returns to Atlantic City, New Jersey, where the event will take place at the Revel Casino.
Facebook prelims start at 5:00 p.m. EST, followed by Fuel TV prelims at 6:00 p.m. EST, leading to the main card on FX at 9:00 p.m. EST.
In the blue corner, you have Clay Guida, who is 29-12 in his career. “The Carpenter” will be coming in off a loss to current lightweight champion, Benson Henderson, and is looking to reclaim his momentum toward a title shot.
The title shot is something that has eluded Guida over the years, but every fight he has been in has been a show. Guida comes to fight and it is a safe bet to expect high energy levels and some bloodshed.
In the red corner, you have Gray Maynard, who is 10-1-1(1). “The Bully” has had great success in the UFC, acquiring 10 wins in a row before facing Frankie Edgar for the title. After their fight went to a draw, and the rematch won by Edgar, Maynard is ready to get back on track.
While he has only fought one man over the last two years, he will now have his chance to prove himself against another quick and energetic striker.
Styles make fights, as they say, and both bring something unique into this fight. Guida has stamina and a relentless pace that is challenging for any opponent. Maynard, while showing some striking, has a forte for wrestling. Guida has a wrestling background as well, but not to the same caliber of Maynard, and has not really focused on using that part of his game in his fights.
Guida will look to use his speed and movement to catch Maynard, but if Maynard can get a hold of him, he may be able to lay-and-pray to a decision. Guida is one to put up a fight and get off the ground quickly, but time will tell if the two opposing grappling strengths will cancel or overpower the other.
As long as Maynard’s stamina holds up and he doesn’t lose focus, he can control this fight. However, it may only be the striking and pace set by Guida that will provide a finish.
Prediction: Clay Guida wins via TKO in the second round.
We know a lot and a little about Gray Maynard.
