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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 134 Edition

(The Royce Gracie of our generation poses with the Anderson Silva of his generation. Props: facebook.com/ufc)

On August 27th, Rio de Janeiro will be Blowout City. Aside from two matches on the preliminary card — Loveland vs. Jabouin and Assuncao vs. Eduardo — every fight at UFC 134: Silva vs. Okami features a fighter who’s a 2-1 favorite or higher. In times like these, it’s not about picking the winners, it’s about picking the upsets. So where they at? Check out the UFC 134 gambling lines below (via BestFightOdds), and consider our advice after the jump.

Main Card (PPV, 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT)
Anderson Silva (-471) vs. Yushin Okami (+425)
Maurício Rua (-220) vs. Forrest Griffin (+225)
Brendan Schaub (-230) vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (+216)
Edson Barboza (-300) vs. Ross Pearson (+280)
Luis Cane (-200) vs. Stanislav Nedkov (+195)

Spike TV Prelims Live (8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT)
Thiago Tavares (-205) vs. Spencer Fisher (+200)
Rousimar Palhares (-275) vs. Dan Miller (+252)

Facebook Prelims (6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT)
Paulo Thiago (-389) vs. David Mitchell (+340)
Raphael Assunção (-160) vs. Johnny Eduardo (+149)
Erick Silva (-270) vs. Luis Ramos (+246)
Yuri Alcantara (-437) vs. Felipe Arantes (+379)
Ian Loveland (-195) vs. Yves Jabouin (+180)

(The Royce Gracie of our generation poses with the Anderson Silva of his generation. Props: facebook.com/ufc)

Spike TV Prelims Live (8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT)
Thiago Tavares (-205) vs. Spencer Fisher (+200)
Rousimar Palhares (-275) vs. Dan Miller (+252)

The Main Event: If you think Okami can pull off a Sonnen-esque bullying of Anderson Silva without getting triangle-choked in the last round, feel free to throw your money down on the big payoff. But I don’t see it happening. Silva won’t let Okami get close to him. He’ll invent a new way to knock Okami out, or rout him to a decision. He ain’t losing in his home country, certainly not to a mere mortal like Yushin.

The Co-Main: Here’s where things get interesting. When Griffin and Shogun first met in 2007, Forrest was a +260 underdog. Today, he’s still a +225 underdog, despite the fact that he won their first meeting, and is currently riding a two-fight win streak. This match will depend entirely on what kind of shape Rua shows up in. If we see the Shogun that blitzed Machida last year, then Forrest is a dead man walking. Otherwise, the odds on Forrest are too juicy to pass up. We’d roll the dice on him.

The Other Good ‘Dogs: Newcomer Johnny Eduardo is facing a steep jump in competition, but his aggressive striking might allow him to overwhelm the struggling Raphael Assunção. Plus, Thiago Tavares is a bit overvalued here at -205, and the well-traveled Spencer Fisher is worth a small risk.

Absolutely Don’t Bet On: David Mitchell is cannon-fodder, drafted to re-build Paulo Thiago. Luis Ramos is a late replacement for Mike Swick, and he’ll be facing Erick Silva, who has been drawing tons of “next big thing” buzz in Brazil. Dan Miller will very likely be submitted via leglock.

Play It Straight: Big Nog is aging badly, returning from major surgeries, and has used up the last of his career comebacks. Brendan Schaub is fired up to win, and I think he takes it with his fists; -230 is not a terrible price for a straight bet. You may also want to consider money on Luis Cane, whose opponent is making his UFC debut with over a year of ring-rust.

Official CagePotato Parlay: A. Silva + Schaub + Palhares + Thiago. $20 bet returns $36.12 profit. I know, that’s barely worth the effort. Add in FoGriff and Edson Barboza and that twenty-spot becomes $189.50, but you’re playing with fire.

Dear Fox, Please Keep Gus Johnson Away From Your UFC Broadcasts. Signed, Everyone.

(“Maybe he was born with it. Maybe it’s Maybelline.”)

One overlooked scenario from today’s blockbuster announcement that Fox Networks has signed a seven year broadcast deal with the UFC is that Gus Johnson may somehow be involved in its UFC coverage.

Fox recently inked the sometimes MMA commentator to a multi-year commentary deal that will see the veteran football and basketball play-by-play man call a variety of Pacific-12 football and basketball games, the Cotton Bowl and football games on the Big Ten Network, which is also partly owned by Fox. He will also call about 30 BTN basketball games as well as some yet-to-be-determined college basketball games on either Fox or FX.

Hopefully for the sake of the majority of MMA fans who came to loathe the much-maligned Renzo Gracie BJJ blue belt’s oblivious Strikeforce commentary, his other duties will keep his made-up mug off of the UFC-related broadcasts, that are said to include pre and post-fight shows and a weekly or daily UFC magazine-type series.

(“Maybe he was born with it. Maybe it’s Maybelline.”)

One overlooked scenario from today’s blockbuster announcement that Fox Networks has signed a seven year broadcast deal with the UFC is that Gus Johnson may somehow be involved in its UFC coverage.

If UFC president Dana White has his way, Johnson, who he called “bush league” for the way he handled the brawl in Nashville last year, won’t be allowed near any of his shows.

Here’s what White had to say about Johnson’s “Sometimes these things happen in MMA” remarks in an interview with Yahoo! Sports’ Kevin Iole:

“When have you seen anything remotely close to that happen at a UFC event?” White asked. “What kind of ridiculous commentary was that? That was an idiotic thing to say. And then he was yelling at them to stop, telling them they are on national television. That was just another example of how bush league they are.”

UFC color analyst Joe Rogan is also not a fan of GuJo.

(Video courtesy of YouTube/Romain1212)

I’d rather see Mauro Ranallo get the gig than Gus and I’d much rather see Chael Sonnen host his own UFC show. Maybe he could do double-duty as a political analyst on Fox News.

‘Lights Out’ for Chris Lytle: A Farewell Letter to a Fighter’s Fighter

By Jared “DangadaDang” Jones

When asked to describe his career in his final post-fight interview following his submission victory over Dan Hardy, Chris Lytle summed up more than a decade’s worth of sport-defining battles with one word — “exciting.” And how appropriate a sign-off it was for the soft spoken, hard swinging Indiana born fighter. Over the course of 54 fights, 20 of which took place under the bright lights of the UFC, Lytle never once let a loss, an opponent, or a chance at title contention stop him from entertaining his audience.

In the fight game, both fighters and fans often look at success with tunnel vision, believing that the belt around one’s waist alone defines it. But even with the greatest champions, we sometimes find ourselves questioning their willingness to take big risks for the relatively small reward of the fans’ respect. And though he never donned UFC gold, it goes without saying that “Lights Out” was never one to take the easy road to victory. From his legendary slugfests with Paul Kelly, Thiago Alves, and Marcus Davis to his impressive and creative submission victories over Matt Brown, Brian Foster, and Jason Gilliam, Lytle always put the fans’ delight before his own, throwing caution, his health, and perhaps his better judgment to the wind in order to ensure that we all got our money’s worth. And his final battle was no exception; though he had a clear grappling advantage over Hardy, Lytle opted to slug it out with the dangerous striker, choosing to end the fight by submission only when prompted to by Hardy himself.

By Jared “DangadaDang” Jones

Even as a borderline robot when it comes to displays of emotion, I couldn’t help but find myself a little choked up when I found out that Lytle was walking away from a sport I so dearly love. Because “Lights Out” in a way represented the kind of everyman that not only reminds us of but inspires the incredible silver screen stories like Rocky that we find ourselves watching over and over again. But to group him with those mythical Hollywood creations would almost be an insult to a man who is not only a hero inside the cage, but an even greater one on the outside.

A father of four and full-time fireman, Lytle has built his career through a tremendous amount of sacrifice, and perhaps therein lies his readiness to go to war without so much as batting an eye. And for his sacrifice, not only were the fans repeatedly rewarded, but Lytle was as well. The man has received a record 10 UFC bonuses in his past 13 fights, including six Fight of the Night performances despite only headlining one of those shows, his bout this past Sunday. (His bonus total would at least be 11 if not for a certain someone deciding to display something other than a series of rapid fire hammer fists, but I’m getting away from the point). In a sport that so often baffles us, it is comforting to know that good guys like Lytle — who has never had a bad thing to say about any opponent in over ten years worth of competition — do occasionally reap the rewards.

Holding true to his character, Chris Lytle has decided to walk away from the sport he loves on his own terms, not out of necessity, but out of love for his family. There is no doubt in any of our minds that Lytle easily had a couple more good years left in him, but the fact that he is going out without ever being knocked out or submitted, and on an impressive win nonetheless, just goes to prove what kind of person he is, both as a fighter and as a man. Lytle has stated that in addition to devoting himself full-time to his family he is also looking into a run at the state legislature, and though history is against him, we all know that he won’t go down without a fight. A bloody, brutal fight.

So if this is truly the end of the road for Mr. Lytle, as one of your biggest fans I would just like to say on behalf of the MMA community, thank you. Thank you for all the beautiful memories. You are the epitome of what most fighters wish they could be, and if there’s any justice in the world, a future spot in the UFC Hall of Fame surely awaits you.

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘Hardy vs. Lytle’ Edition

Full betting lines for this Sunday’s UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle event have been released, which means it’s time to steal some money from your old lady’s purse and tell her you’re going for a walk. And if you follow our gambling advice very carefully, you’ll be able to return the cash before she notices and earn some extra cigarette-money in the process. (Ed. note: You’ll probably lose everything like usual. Are things ever going to change with you, Jim?) Check out the juiciest lines, via bestfightodds.com:

Main Card (Versus, 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT)
Chris Lytle (-107) vs. Dan Hardy (even)
Jim Miller (-145) vs. Ben Henderson (+145)
Charles Oliveira (-130) vs. Donald Cerrone (+130)
Amir Sadollah (-310) vs. Duane Ludwig (+273)

Preliminary Card (Facebook.com, 5:45 p.m. ET / 2:45 p.m. PT)
C.B. Dollaway (-250) vs. Jared Hamman (+222)
Joseph Benavidez (-231) vs. Eddie Wineland (+225)
Kyle Noke (-144) vs. Ed Herman (+145)
Karlos Vemola (-210) vs. Ronny Markes (+201)
Jimy Hettes (-350) vs. Alex Caceres (+313)
Cole Miller (-387) vs. T.J. O’Brien (+335)
Danny Castillo (-118) vs. Jacob Volkmann (+107)
Edwin Figueroa (-300) vs. Jason Reinhardt (+288)

Let’s get that money…

The Main Event: Chris Lytle definitely deserves to be a slight favorite here; he’s dangerous from more positions than Dan Hardy, and supernaturally impervious to knockouts and submissions. I think the line would be wider if Lytle wasn’t coming off a lackluster performance against Brian Ebersole in February, but as we all know, the dude was nursing injuries and shouldn’t have taken the fight in the first place. Dan Hardy allegedly holds the striking advantage — but I’m not entirely convinced of that either. Straight money on Lights Out is a wise choice.

The Co-Main: There’s part of me that thinks Jim Miller is being disrespected (as usual) by only being a -145 favorite against Bendo. Henderson is incredibly talented and capable of brilliant performances, but this is Miller’s time. His last two stoppage wins against Charles Oliveira and Kamal Shalorus have demonstrated that his skills are developing with every fight. I see the Jersey Boy taking this one by decision and hitting lucky #8. Miller’s a safe bet.

The Good ‘Dog: I expected the Oliveira vs. Cerrone line to be closer to even. The rangy, experienced, well-rounded Cowboy is a legitimate test for the young Brazilian phenom, and his +130 line is attractive.

The New Guys: Never heard of Jimy Hettes, huh? Well after Sunday night, you’ll know him as “the guy who just knocked Bruce Leroy out of the UFC.” Hettes is a grappling savant who has tapped all eight of his opponents in regional east coast promotions. Despite his TUF 12 credentials, Caceres isn’t really a step up in competition; please don’t bet on him just because you’ve heard of him. As for the card’s other late-replacement newbie, Ronny Markes is a 23-year-old Brazilian prospect who scored a decision win over Paulo Filho in April — not that beating Paulo Filho means much anymore. Vemola is the favorite here because he kicked the dogshit out of Seth Petruzelli in his last fight, while Markes is something of an unknown quantity. My gut is telling me to stay away from this one altogether.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Lytle + Miller + Benavidez + Hettes + Figueroa. $20 returns $131.05 profit.

UFC 132: Five Things to Take Away

No caption needed, really.

Well people, hopefully you are enjoying a day off with some barbecued animal carcass and a nice cold beer (or some grilled zucchini and tofu scramble, whatever scratches your itch). Join us as we look back on the action from UFC 132 and what we can take away from a card that as wild and unpredictable as this one. If a story comes out that some guy hit an eleven fight parley, we’re going to track him down and burn him as a sorcerer. Seriously, there’s playing a hunch, and then there’s invoking demons to influence the reality on our plane of existence.

First, some things must not be spoken of.

Like Wanderlei Silva losing, or Tito Ortiz winning. Sometimes, great reflection is required to glean the lessons of life from events that at first seem incomprehensible. Sometimes, understanding must elude us forever.

Come on in and let’s talk five things.

No caption needed, really.

First, some things must not be spoken of.

Come on in and let’s talk five things.

1. Best card EVAR?

Well, no — probably not. Wanderlei lost, so it can’t be best card ever. We might have to do some research to decide which ones were better, though. The card was ludicrously stacked on paper; even the undercard fights were charged up with guys like Anthony Njokuani, Melvin Guillard, and George Sotiropoulos ready for action, plus Bowles-Mizugaki was an opportunity for someone to claim dibs on the next bantamweight title shot. And holydamnshitwow it delivered. If you were one of those people that complains about lackluster shows before anyone gets their hands wrapped, slap yourself. Now do it again, but harder. Between UFC 132 and UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry, we hope you’ve learned not to try to play jaded psychic MMA fan anymore. Seriously, you look like a tool.

2. Hey, these WEC guys are pretty alright.

Both in terms of carrying the marquee, and in terms of how they stack up in the UFC. Anthony Njokuani got bumped up to the Spike broadcast for Tekkenizing Andre Winner, which we were happy to see. One-time WEC middleweight champ Chris Leben is working to carve out a top five spot for himself in the division, despite being written off pretty much always. Aaron Simpson is a WEC vet; he was exciting there. Plus this Condit fellow with the knee is pretty outstanding. If MMA followed BJ Penn’s rules, Carlos Condit would be 26-3 and in the GOAT conversation. Ok, Shane Roller had a rough fight, but he’ll be back.

3. MMA Judging is …. whatever, man these guys might as well flip coins.

We as much as anyone are willing to complain hysterically about bad decisions, but really, with fights as close as Cruz-Faber or Siver-Wiman, we’re willing to concede that it is possible that judges can turn in scores that are diametrically opposed to our own, without being under the influence of blindness, insanity, mental incompetence, or cash money. Tiny differences in how individuals see a fight account for total disagreement in who won the bout, and we’re just going to have to resign ourselves to that under the current judging criteria. (More liberal use of 10-8 and 10-10 rounds could be a relatively low impact experiment, though, right?)

4. What’s up with Brian Bowles?

People from West Virginia are crazy. All of ‘em, crazier than Khaos War Machine von Datsik on whatever it was that Rampage was drinking. Yet even fueled by what we assume to be reality-altering powers of psychoenergy, Bowles didn’t impress with his anything Saturday night. The former champ is going to need the eye of the tiger to get back to title contention. Plus, player, did you break your hand again? Someone never took their kung fu movies seriously. Calcium supplements aren’t on the banned list, are they?

5. Cue up Cruz-Faber 3.

The casual crowd is still catching on to these lighter weight classes, and chances are they enjoyed the bout. Why not go ahead and finish the best of three series? Cruz and Faber are so evenly-matched and so exhaustingly energetic that we’d sign on to watch those two fight three times a year. The dislike between the two doesn’t hurt either. Yes, Sean Shelby is talking about maybe Mighty Mouse, who we like, but the rubber match would generate way more interest. Strike when the iron is hot, people.

[RX]

Armchair Matchmaker: UFC 132 Edition

(We know, Urijah. Sometimes we spend an entire hour working on a blog post, and our browser decides to crash just as we’re finishing it up, and when we go back into the CMS the post has completely vanished and we’re struck with that feeling of pure disappointment and frustration, knowing that we have to do it all over again. So, yeah, we can totally relate. / Photo courtesy of MMAFighting)

UFC 132 was as bizarre as it was thrilling. Now that we’ve wrapped our heads around it for the most part, it’s time to look ahead and see if we can think up some future matchups for Saturday’s notable winners and losers. Let us know how you feel in the comments section — and hey, happy 4th of July!

Dominick Cruz and Urijah Faber: Immediate rubber match. It’s not the most essential of immediate rematches, but the fight was close enough to warrant it, and there’s really no bantamweight contender right now who deserves it more than Faber. Brian Bowles thinks he’s the guy, but I can’t forget that two fights ago he was beaten up by Dominick Cruz worse than anybody’s been beaten up by Dominick Cruz, ever.

The other name being thrown around in the aftermath of UFC 132 is Demetrious Johnson, who’s coming off decision wins over Miguel Torres and Kid Yamamoto. Impressive? Of course. Still, Johnson has never been on the main card of a UFC event, and promoting him as a headliner could be a tough sell. Give Mighty Mouse one more fight to establish himself — or hurry up and create that long-rumored flyweight division so the diminutive Johnson can dominate there.

Chris Leben: There’s no limit to the brawling abilities of a sugar-free Cat Smasher. Leben vs. Wandy was a bit of a stunt-fight, and now that Leben has emerged victorious, he should return to a more conventional contender track. The first name that comes to mind is Mark Munoz, who’s riding a three-fight win streak, most recently outpointing Demian Maia last month at UFC 131 — although Vitor Belfort could also be a great matchup for Leben, as long as the Phenom can get past Yoshihiro Akiyama next month in Philadelphia.

Wanderlei Silva: It sounds like Dana wants to retire him. I say, fuck that. Silva and Chael Sonnen have already laid so much trash-talk groundwork, it would be a shame if that fight didn’t happen as Sonnen’s post-suspension return. Do it for Brazil’s honor, Wanderlei.

Tito Ortiz: And so, the Huntington Beach Bad Boy has secured his employment for at least one more fight. I’m sure he’s already hounding Dana for a title shot, but I’d like to see Ortiz against someone else on Bader’s level just to get a sense of how “back” Tito really is. UFC 133 presents two interesting possibilities: Rich Franklin if he beats Lil’ Nog, or Phil Davis if he beats Rashad Evans. And if fate conspires to nix those options? There’s always Mauricio Rua, no matter how he does against Forrest Griffin in Rio.

Ryan Bader: Jesus, who knows. A TUF 8 reunion match against the streaking Kyle Kingsbury? Whatever.

Carlos Condit: Due to timing, Condit might have to fight again before getting his first crack at the UFC welterweight title, which is just as well, considering Dong Hyun Kim wasn’t one of those dudes being discussed as an imminent title contender. The winner of Jake vs. Jake would make sense, but I’d much rather see Condit go three wild-ass rounds against Diego Sanchez, assuming the ~~Dream~~ ~~Nightmare~~ Vision can slice through Matt Hughes at UFC 135.

Melvin Guillard: I’m thinking Clay Guida. The logjam at 155 isn’t going to clear up until 1) the Edgar/Maynard trilogy concludes, and 2) Jim Miller fights Ben Henderson next month in Milwaukee, but in the meantime, Guillard vs. Guida will go a long way in determining who’s really at the top of the food chain. Both of these guys have looked like future champs lately, and you know they go hard. If Guillard can’t avoid being blanketed for three rounds, he doesn’t deserve to think of himself as the world’s #1 lightweight in the first place.

(BG)

Got any other suggestions for UFC 132′s fighters? Let us know in the comments section…