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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 161: Evans vs. Henderson’ Edition

(What could have been. *cues Charlie Brown music* Photo via AlphaEntertainmentOnline.)

This Saturday night, Zuffa heads up North to Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada for another injury-altered card which saw Renan Barao vs. Eddie Wineland cancelled due to an injury suffered by the interim bantamweight champion (you guessed it, the actual bantamweight champion was also unavailable due to injury) and replaced by Rashad Evans vs. Dan Henderson as your main event. So…who’s looking forward to all the excitement of 50+ takedown attempts? You guys? ANYONE?!

Join us now as we try to find a way into the winner’s circle by highlighting a few undercard and all main card bouts for UFC 161. All betting lines courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Undercard bouts:

John Maguire (-250) vs Mitch Clarke (+210)

Mitch Clarke will be looking for his first win in his third contest inside the Octagon against -250 betting favorite John Maguire. Both fighters are coming off back-to-back losses and may be fighting for the right to stay in the UFC, so to assume that both men will be giving an honest fight would be an understatement. John Maguire looked outstanding in his first two outings but clearly hit the wall when facing more well-rounded fighters in the 170lbs division. Playing MMA math is not always wise, but Maguire may win this fight due to the level of competition he has faced in the UFC compared to that of Mitch Clarke. Maguire to win.

(What could have been. *cues Charlie Brown music* Photo via AlphaEntertainmentOnline.)

Join us now as we try to find a way into the winner’s circle by highlighting a few undercard and all main card bouts for UFC 161. All betting lines courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Undercard bouts:

John Maguire (-250) vs Mitch Clarke (+210)

Jake Shields (+160) vs. Tyron Woodley (-185)

Woodley hovering around -185 is compelling considering the UFC version of Jake Shields really has not offered much in terms of the dominating performances he had during his Strikeforce tenure as champion. Woodley’s only loss came at the hands of a talented striker in Nate Marquardt, who is perhaps the polar opposite of Jake Shields. Team Cesar Gracie has rattled off quite the losing streak in the Octagon and Shields may not be the one to break the trend, as Woodley closely resembles the same skill set as Jake Ellenberger, a powerful striker with a strong wrestling base. Woodley makes the parlay for the win.

Main Card PPV:

Pat Barry (-120) vs. Shawn Jordan (+100)

After suffering his first UFC setback in his last contest, which saw the team Jackson fighter out Greg Jacksoned by Cheick Kongo in the hands down worst fight of the hands down worst card of 2012, Shawn Jordan bounced back into the win column with a second round TKO of Mike Russow at UFC on FOX 6. Barry at -125 territory is the slight favorite to win and put together his first winning streak in the UFC, and a bet on him may be the right one in this fight. “HD” has shown improvement in his wrestling in his past couple contests and this may be the difference maker here, as Jordan will look to press Barry against the cage and look for a takedown. Barry should be able to keep this fight on the feet and take advantage of his striking expertise to stop Jordan inside the distance. Barry to win.

Alexis Davis (-400) vs Rosi Sexton (+325)

Alexis Davis -400?! Rosi Sexton has only lost to Gina Carano and Zoila Gurgel, which means that this may not be the squash match that is reflected in the betting line. While I do not think Sexton is worth picking outright to win, there is a nice prop bet at -260 out there that this fight starts the second round, which may be the safest way to avoid a parlay buster in this one. Davis to win, but not at the inflated price.

Ryan Jimmo (-260) vs. Igor Pokrajac (+220)

The Canadian (hint: Not the guy named “Igor”) will be the favorite at -250 to take down the Croatian and find a way to win this fight on ground work. Pokrajac has shown in the past that a strong wrestler can find success by taking him down and grinding him out. Jimmo will not try to stand all that long with Igor, who to his credit is one tough SOB, so Jimmo to win via decision is +130 and a solid single bet and a parlay pick to win outright.

Roy Nelson (-260) vs. Stipe Miocic (+220)

Miocic looked to be a rising star when he first came into the UFC, but at -260, “Big Country” will be out to prove that he is amongst the top of the HW division once and for all. It may sound odd, but after watching Miocic against Struve, I’d argue that Nelson may have the better gas tank of the two and this may lead to another late stoppage of Miocic. Stipe has KO power, but Roy has proved that against the most powerful strikers in the HW division he cannot be stopped (Ed note: Well, maybe not stopped, but beat to dog shit on occasion.). Nelson also has the ground skills to end this fight on the mat, where Stipe has yet to prove he can deal with an experienced grappler the caliber of Big Country. Nelson to win makes the parlay.

Rashad Evans (-125) vs Dan Henderson (+105)

So many questions surround this fight, but the pick’em-ish odds almost force Evans down the throat of bettors here. Many people scoffed when they heard Evans state that he would go for “50 takedowns” against Hendo, and perhaps rightfully so. However, while Evans may not come anywhere near reaching that goal, his ability to control Henderson should become easier and easier for the former champion as the fight goes on. It has been a while since we have been treated to an H-Bomb in the UFC and Rashad has the experience against heavy handed strikers to stay out of trouble, which leaves little room left for Hendo to win if you look at the alternative of Evans landing a takedown and maintaining top control. Rahsad -130 to win makes the parlay and Evans wins by unanimous decision is +180 as a prop bet.

Parlay 1
-Jimmo + Nelson

Parlay 2
-Evans+Woodley

Props
-Jimmo wins via decision
-Sexton vs Davis starts round 2
-Evans wins via unanimous decision

Please share your thoughts on who you like, CP nation.

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 160: Velasquez vs. Silva II’ Edition

(Looks like this year’s harvest will be even better. Sanguis Bibimus! Corpus Edimus! Photo via Getty Images.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This Saturday night, Cain Velasquez ~~will attempt to make~~ WILL MAKE the first title defense of his career in his second term as UFC heavyweight champion when he rematches Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva, Mark Hunt ~~will look to continue~~ WILL CONTINUE his Cinderella run in the co-main event against former HW champ Junior Dos Santos, and ~~a possible #1 contender~~ the next lightweight title contender WILL BE DECIDED in the sure-to-be-brawl between Gray Maynard and T.J. Grant. Whew.

With one of the strongests undercards (on paper) in what feels like an eternity, UFC 160 is primed to become, at the very least, a night chock full of wild finishes and entertaining scraps that will leave *no fan* unsatisfied. I really hope I’m not overselling it. Anyway, join us now as we try to underline the right favorites and highlight some possible underdogs in the hopes of finding that ever-elusive payout for UFC 160. The gambling lines, as always, come courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Undercard bouts:

Brian Bowles (-280) vs. George Roop (+240)

Having only lost twice, to Urijah Faber and injuryweight world champion Dominick Cruz, Bowles comes in as a healthy -280 favorite (and rightfully so) against the woefully inconsistent George Roop. Roop is coming off a less than convincing win over Reuben Duran in his return to bantamweight, whereas his opponent is looking to get back on the short list of top contenders in the division. Bowles should be able to close the distance on Roop and get this fight to the mat, where we may see a submission victory for the former WEC champion. Bowles makes the parlay at -140 and the prop bet that he is able to end things before the final bell.

(Looks like this year’s harvest will be even better. Sanguis Bibimus! Corpus Edimus! Photo via Getty Images.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Undercard bouts:

Brian Bowles (-280) vs. George Roop (+240)

Dennis Bermudez (-270) vs. Max Holloway (+230)

With the exception of one bout on the main card (we’ll get to that later), all signs point to a Fight of the Night-earning war when these two talented strikers mix it up on Saturday. Holloway at +215 or better is quite the enticing underdog pick, as he has the potential to avoid the blitzkrieg attack of Bermudez by using his height and reach advantage to counter the ultra-aggressive TUF 14 runner up. Bermudez may very well catch Holloway early, but at -280 to win, the prop that Bermudez wins inside the distance at +200 may be the best option for a lone bet here.

Main Card PPV:

Donald Cerrone (-300) vs. K.J. Noons (+250)

K.J. Noons is coming off a controversial loss to Ryan Couture in his last Strikeforce outing and will be looking to right the ship in his Octagon debut against the -300 territory Donald Cerrone. K.J. has power in his hands for sure, but Cerrone has a more complete stand up game and will not make the same mistake he did against Diaz (trying to simply outbox his opponent). Cowboy will most likely attack K.J.’s lead leg and use his reach to keep Noons frustrated and swinging for the fences from the outside. Cerrone is parlay bound and the prop that Cerrone wins by decision at +175 is a solid option, as Noons is notoriously hard to finish.

Gray Maynard (-210) vs. T.J. Grant (+175)

Along with the Holloway/Bermudez tilt, this fight has the potential to find itself as a candidate for FOTN. Undefeated at lightweight in the UFC, Grant has put together 4 straight wins in increasingly brilliant fashion. With Gray potentially fighting off ring rust, the makings for an upset are very real. Grant has not been stopped in over 4 years and this includes a bout with Johny Hendricks, where T.J. was simply overpowered in a competitive fight. Maynard is undoubtedly one of the strongest lightweights in the division, but Grant looked ultra impressive against Matt Wiman (another powerful lightweight) and while he may not finish Gray, this fight will surely be close right until the end. Prop that fight goes the distance is around -205 and may be the safest option.

Glover Teixeira (-300) vs. James Te Huna (+250)

Glover Teixeira comes in as a sizable favorite to score his 19th win in a row (!) against the hard-hitting and harder to take down Te Huna. While Glover beat Rampage convincingly in his last outing, it is hard to determine how serious Jackson took their bout; this may be the first true test for Glover in the UFC. All signs point to Glover winning this fight, but he probably won’t want to turn this into a potentially lethal slugfest and may be content to show off his BJJ prowess. Just sit back and enjoy this one, folks.

Junior Dos Santos (-450) vs. Mark Hunt (+360)

JDS was a -350 favorite going into his fight with Roy Nelson, this time Junior is a -450 favorite going into his fight with Mark Hunt, who is comparable to Roy in the sense that they posses heavy hands and enjoy separating their opponents from consciousness. Most likely though, much like Roy Nelson, Hunt may find JDS to be too quick and too technical with his stand up, which may leave Hunt on the wrong end of a boxing clinic. JDS will be looking to finish this fight and get back to the top of the HW division, whether or not he gets caught by Hunt in the process is yet to be determined, but -170 that this fight does not go the distance is alluring. JDS for the win makes the parlay.

(Ed. Note: Sorry, I gotta step in here. Mark Hunt because PRIDE. – Danga)

Cain Velasquez (-800) vs. Antonio Silva (+550)

Considering their first encounter, it would be hard to imagine that “Bigfoot” could do any worse this time around against Cain. However, as a +550 underdog, the people have spoken once again and have given very little consideration to Silva pulling off the upset here. A line like -750 does not impact a small parlay, so much like with the UFC 159 main event, the prop section offers some interesting proposals that could pay off nicely. “Fight Does Not Start Round 4″ is at -285 and pays roughly the same as many favorites to win. For the true gambler, placing money on Cain to win in the 2nd or 3rd rounds pays +300 and +500 respectively, so splitting your money on those props (i.e. a $10 bet on each) might pay off nicely if Cain is able to avoid disaster. Cain most likely wins and Bigfoot most likely bleeds…..again.

Parlay 1
Bowles + Cerrone + JDS (Ed note: Lalalalalalala I can’t hear you!!!)

Parlay 2
Stephens + Bowles + JDS

Props
-Velasquez/Silva does not start rd.4
-Cerrone wins by decision
-Bowles wins inside the distance
-FOTN Holloway/Bermudez

Feel free to share your thoughts and concerns on this weekend’s card in the comments section. But mainly, enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 159: Jones vs. Sonnen’ Edition

(We’d start getting *real* used to that desk if we were you, Chael.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

It’s finally happening, Potato Nation. Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen a.k.a “the fight fans have been asking for” is set to go down this Saturday from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. Although many fans have focused on the chemistry (or lack thereof) between Chael and Jon as reason enough to pass on this pay-per-view event, UFC 159 will be offering a solid card of competitive fights which on paper may make it a sleeper that you won’t want to miss.

So join us as we continue to contribute to the Save Danga’s Legs Fund (he’s almost better, but he likes the nurse visits) by highlighting where to place your money on a few undercard and all of the main card bouts. All betting lines courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Undercard bouts:

Steven Siler (-120) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (+100)

Steven Siler comes in at around -130 for his fifth UFC appearance and will improve his Octagon record to 4-1 should he emerge victorious against the debuting Strikeforce veteran in Holobaugh. In his last outing, Siler was tarred and feathered by Darren Elkins‘ wrestling and was unable to take control of the fight for any sustained period of time. As an underdog who has only tasted defeat once in his career (a decision loss to Pat Healy), Holobaugh at even money or better is a solid choice. Kurt fights like a veteran and showed he can hang with some of the best in the world while dominating anything less than that caliber. Coming out of the Gracie Barra gym, Holobaugh will be too tough for Siler to submit and will put Super’s stand up game to the test with his own excellent striking. Holobaugh for the slight upset win.

(We’d start getting *real* used to that desk if we were you, Chael.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Undercard bouts:

Steven Siler (-120) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (+100)

Rustam Khabilov (-300) vs. Yancy Medeiros (+250)

The Sambo suplex machine rolls into town as a healthy -300 favorite and will look to couple his grappling skills with Greg Jackson’s game planning prowess (close the distance and look for a takedown) to overwhelm his +250 underdog opponent, Yancy Medeiros. Not sure about the line on this, but it may start to narrow leading up to fight night, as Yancy is notorious for finishing his fights with his fists, something Khabilov will surely try to avoid. Khabilov’s only loss was a split decision in Russia, while Medeiros has no losses on his record thus far. Historically, the classic grappler vs striker matchup puts Khabilov to win, but it’s only worth putting in a parlay at these odds. Khabilov by decision.

Main Card PPV:

Pat Healy (+265) vs. Jim Miller (-325)

Going directly to the FOTN bonus prop here. With both fighters only losing to top lightweights in the past three years respectively, this tilt will surely use all sides of the Octagon to showcase a high-paced, hotly contested bout. Looking at the skill sets of these fighters, a look at the prop that this fight goes the distance (provided -250 or better) is also another way not to get burned in this one. The hometown fighter paying out 30 cents on the dollar against what some may consider a carbon copy of himself seems a little steep, so sticking with the props and tighter odds is safest. Jim to pull off the hometown decision but not at that price.

Phil Davis (-335) vs. Vinny Magalhaes (+275)

With a moniker like “Mr.Wonderful,” it comes as no surprise that the price tag is -300 on Davis out-grappling BJJ specialist and former TUF finalist Vinny Magalhaes. Davis underwhelmed some in his lackluster outing against Rashad Evans, being dominated both on the mat and in the stand up portions of their contest. With the betting line in mind, the cost of wagering that Davis will not be caught in a submission or vulnerable position (like Evans was able to exploit) is too high. Magalhaes can hold his own on the mat, will avoid submissions, but may not be able to control Davis, which all points to a fight goes the distance prop. Davis to win via decision by fending off Vinny’s ground game.

Cheick Kongo (+200) vs. Roy Nelson (-240)

If you took a stranger off the street, showed them photos of both fighters and asked them who will win if they fought, chances are Kongo would get the nod more often than not. However, -240 is almost a gift though when you look at the quality of opponents Nelson has been into deep waters with inside the Octagon. We may get a look at Roy’s ground game in this fight as Nelson will surely look to exploit Kongo’s less than stellar grappling abilities. Kongo is a world class striker, but Roy has an out of this world chin and some power of his own, something that has proved successful against Kongo in the past (the Mark Hunt fight comes to mind). Nelson is parlay bound and “fight does not go the distance” is also an alluring prop option (proption?) when two heavy hitting heavyweights step into the cage.

Michael Bisping (-170) vs. Alan Belcher (+150)

To the disappointment of many, “The Talent” showed that he still has issues with strong grapplers in his rematch loss to Yushin Okami at UFC 155. Thankfully, we should be spared this issue in his opponent and -170 favorite, Michael Bisping. Bisping tends to prefer striking over grappling, favoring using his crisp, quick stand up skills to outpoint many a fighter in the UFC. Belcher will surely welcome a stand up contest and may have the slight advantage if the fight takes place on the feet, where Bisping has been clipped by high level strikers before en route to losing. Belcher at +140 is the most alluring pick as an underdog on the main card to stop the takedown of Bisping and win the striking battle.

Chael Sonnen (+700) vs. Jon Jones (-1100)

Facing a 10-to-1 favorite with literally perfect takedown defense, finding the advantages Chael has to win against Jon Jones may be an exercise in futility. The popular consensus is that “Bones” will beat Chael hands down and that ultimately the main event will be an anticlimactic squash match of sorts. However, Jones may use this opportunity to finish Chael where arguably the greatest fighter in MMA could not, inside 5 minutes, which may offer an exciting fight that pays a solid return on the prop bet that this fight does not go out of the first round. For the fans that get together for fights, friendly wagers that propose Jones does not get taken down will also add some suspense to a fight where most believe the outcome is simply a formality. I’m not saying Chael has no chance; you all are. I’m simply agreeing here.

Parlay 1
-Holobaugh + Nelson

Parlay 2
-Khabilov + Belcher

Parlay 3
-Davis + Holobaugh + Nelson

Please share your thoughts on who you like to walk away with a “W” this weekend, CP nation.

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

Gambling Addiction Enabler: The Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale Edition

On paper, this Saturday’s TUF 17 Finale card is dominated by wide mismatches. But which fights will actually be blowouts, and which ones will end in profitable upsets? Check out the betting lines below (via bestfightodds.com) and let’s see if we can win some cash off this thing.

MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)
Urijah Faber (-435) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+375)
Uriah Hall (-309) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+325)
Cat Zingano (-115) vs. Miesha Tate (+106)
Travis Browne (-250) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+240)
Robert McDaniel (-166) vs. Gilbert Smith (+155)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 7 p.m. ET)
Josh Samman (-445) vs. Kevin Casey (+370)
Luke Barnatt (-124) vs. Collin Hart (+115)
Jimmy Quinlan (+100) vs. Dylan Andrews (+105)
Clint Hester (-160) vs. Bristol Marunde (+150)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Bart Palaszewski (-160) vs. Cole Miller (+155)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Justin Lawrence (+109)
Maximo Blanco (-200) vs. Sam Sicilia (+195)

If you’re confused about what the numbers mean, read this. Otherwise, let’s proceed…

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Bart Palaszewski (-160) vs. Cole Miller (+155)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Justin Lawrence (+109)
Maximo Blanco (-200) vs. Sam Sicilia (+195)

If you’re confused about what the numbers mean, read this. Otherwise, let’s proceed…

The Main Event: Without disrespecting the man too much, let’s just say that Scott Jorgensen is only in the main event because Urijah Faber needed somebody to fight. A win for Faber is the most likely scenario here…but man, are those odds bloated or what? Keep in mind that Faber has been relatively inconsistent since his WEC heyday, and has been alternating neatly between wins and losses during his UFC career. (Both Faber and Jorgensen are coming off of submission victories, by the way.) At -435, putting money on the California Kid is definitely not worth the risk. On the other hand, a small bet on Jorgensen (+375) might be. Consider it.

The Co-Main Event: I have to admit, the Uriah Hall hype train has swept me off my feet and I like it, baby. I think Hall is a lock against Kelvin Gastelum, and it’s not just because of his explosive power or flashy Tekken-kicks — it’s also his maturity, his confidence, and his experience edge. Of the five opponents on Gastelum’s professional record, only one had a winning record when they fought. Meanwhile, Hall has already been in the cage with UFC-level talents like Chris Weidman and Costa Philippou, and learned valuable lessons from those fights. Gastelum is an incredible raw talent, but he needs seasoning; Hall already has it. Betting on Uriah won’t be profitable, but it’s a fairly safe investment.

The Ladies: It’s somewhat surprising that Cat Zingano — who isn’t a familiar Strikeforce crossover — is a slight favorite over a known quantity like Miesha Tate. Zingano certainly looks the part, and Rose Namajunas told us that she’s a stud wrestler and rapidly improving striker, in addition to her BJJ base. But until Cat experiences her first fight on a big stage against a top talent like Tate, I wouldn’t suggest betting on her. Small money on Miesha is probably the way to go.

Another Good ‘Dog: If Cole Miller (+155) can bring the fight to the ground, Bart Palaszewski is in deep shit. That is all.

Proceed With Caution: Six months ago, Browne vs. Gonzaga would have been a no-brainer. Travis Browne was the nasty up-and-comer, and Gabriel Gonzaga was the irrelevant can-crusher. Then, Browne blew a hammy while firing some ridiculously unnecessary jumping front kicks against Bigfoot Silva, and Gonzaga went and choked out Ben Rothwell — his greatest UFC victory since his infamous head kick knockout of Mirko Cro Cop. So is Napao back? And will Browne keep it simple this time, for God’s sake? My gut tells me that Browne has this in the bag, but my mind tells me to skip it, just in case.

The Official CagePotato “Safe” Parlay: $5 on Faber+Hall+Tate+Barnatt returns a $22.77 profit on BetUS.

The Unofficial CagePotato “So Crazy It Just Might Work?” Parlay: $5 on Jorgensen+Gonzaga+Casey+Marunde+Miller+Sicilia returns a $5,431.40 profit.

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 158: St. Pierre vs. Diaz’ Edition

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Thus far, 2013 has been kind to Zuffa, with PPV’s and TV broadcasts delivering, whether or not this will be the case after this Saturday night is yet to be determined. Will Dana pull Nick from the main event…again? Will GSP unleash the dark side of his personality on Diaz as promised if the Stocktonian does manage to make it to the ring? Or are these fights all fixed and full of cheaters just trying to help out the economy like Don Frye would have us believe?

Buckle up as we head to the great white north and highlight some of the undercard bouts as well as all the main card bouts for UFC 158 in the hopes of cashing in big and possibly helping contribute to the “Save Danga’s Legs” fund.

Undercard bouts (all betting lines courtesy of BestFightOdds):

Reuben Duran (-140) vs. George Roop (+120)

Roop is a slight underdog against Duran, who is looking to bring his UFC record to .500 in this fight. The 6’1″ Roop is making his bantamweight debut and I think his considerable size advantage in this fight may be worth the bet. Duran has proven he can be out grappled (vs. Mizugaki at UFC Live 3 ) and KO’d (vs. Viana at the TUF 16 Finale) by opponents of lower caliber than Roop, so the TUF 8 alum should be able to use his considerable reach advantage to keep Duran on his feet and possibly finish the BJJ specialist. A quick look at Roop’s record shows losses to current and former top contenders, whereas Duran has simply not fought the same level of competition. This fight may be too steep a step up for him right now.

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Undercard bouts (all betting lines courtesy of BestFightOdds):

Reuben Duran (-140) vs. George Roop (+120)

Antonio Carvalho (+180) vs. Darren Elkins (-220)

Both men fought at the last Montreal show; Elkins blanketed Steve Siler and cashed as an underdog while Carvalho took home a controversial split decision win over Rodrigo Damm. Elkins at around -210 is the right favorite as “The Damage” is likely to take this fight to the ground and stay on top of the BJJ black belt Carvalho. The judges might have to save another hometown decision for Nick Ring, as I do not see Antonio being able to submit Elkins before the end of the 3^rd round in this. Elkins is 4-0 all coming via decision in his last 4 outings in the UFC, so the prop that fight goes the distance is also a nice option.

John Makdessi (+100) vs Daron Cruickshank (-120)

All signs point towards stand up, FOTN-style action in this bout with two talented strikers who each hold walk off KO’s in the Octagon. The one glaring aspect of this fight is Cruickshank’s ground game and whether or not he will choose to take Makdessi down for an easy win. In all of his losing efforts, Makdessi has come up short in the grappling department, something Daron is surely looking to exploit. Cruickshank is the razor thin favorite here, but the idea that he can smother Makdessi after an impressive KO win for his 7^th straight win makes him an alluring pick. Fight goes the distance prop should pay plus money as well.

Main Card PPV:

Mike Ricci (-280) vs. Colin Fletcher (+240)

Both fighters are coming off TUF Finale losses as considerable favorites. Ricci is moving down to his natural weight class and should not have to worry about being over powered against Fletcher, who showed some holes in his striking game last time out. Mike is a healthy -280 favorite and while he should be able to use his striking to give “Freakshow” fits, he will have to be careful not to find himself on his back with the submissions specialist.

Nick Ring (-115) vs. Chris Camozzi (-105)

Ring was supposed to face Costa Phillipou his last time out, but due to illness/smart career move, was forced to withdraw and will instead find himself against the streaking Chris Camozzi. Just like last time, if this fight goes the distance, Ring will most likely get the nod on the cards, but Camozzi may have the right mix of stand up and submissions to hurt Ring and finish the fight on the ground. Due to where this fight is taking place, Camozzi may not be the best dog to bet on, while Ring is simply too much of a gamble (knee issues, controversial decision wins) to bet on either. Evenly matched opponents suggest fight may go the distance and that is the prop to go with if you are looking to lay it down on this one.

Jake Ellenberger (-165) vs Nate Marquardt (+145)

Ellenberger is the stronger grappler on paper and the favorite to beat the returning Nate Marquardt who will also be making his UFC welterweight debut. Nate has a favorable record against strong grapplers and is worth a look as the small underdog, as Jake has been KO’d before while trying to bring a fight to the ground. This has to be the most difficult fight to pick on this card and staying away simply enjoying the action may be what the doctor ordered. Trying to figure out if the Nate that fought Woodley or the Nate that fought Saffiedine will show up can drive one crazy.

Johny Hendricks (-135) vs Carlos Condit (+115)

The former #1 contender/interim champ meets the consensus current #1 contender in a matchup to decide who may be the official #1 contender to GSP’s title? Awwwww yeah. The Greg Jacksonized version of Carlos is the slight underdog and Hendrick’s left hand is favored at around -140, but this fight most likely will close at pick’em come fight time. Condit is the bigger, less-specialized-but-more-well-rounded fighter and coming off a 5rd decision loss to the welterweight kingpin in his last outing. Hendricks has left two bodies (Kampmann+Fitch) and a decision victory over Josh Koscheck in his last three outings, which have helped propel him to the top of the division.

Condit has never been knocked out and despite the odds, may have the better all around striking game to stay out of trouble en route to a decision victory over Hendricks. Condit should utilize his 8” reach advantage and foot work to stay out of Johny’s power range all the while figuring out Big Rigg’s timing while scoring from the outside. If Johny is unable to close the distance early, he may find himself chasing Condit en route to a decision loss. Condit as the underdog gets the slight nod and fight goes the distance at plus money may be worth a peek.

Georges St. Pierre (-550) vs Nick Diaz (+425)

Nick Diaz is a front-runner fighter when his opponents elect to play his game, almost making the sport look too easy as he routinely out strikes his opponents at a high clip and suddenly ending the fight in spectacular fashion. GSP is also very much a front-runner type of fighter in his own right; his grappling intensive method is the more tried and tested recipe for success in the UFC and ultimately will be the deciding factor this weekend. Diaz welcoming the ground game is sealing his fate as the loser against Georges, who will not trade with Diaz, but rather use his jab to close the distance and take the former Strikeforce champ down to the ground.

-500 does not inspire anyone to run to the betting window and a GSP decision victory should roll anywhere between -150 to -200, which is where bettors have found some solace in GSP’s last five consecutive decision wins. The one caveat is the unpredictability of Diaz; no showing the open workouts, retiring post-Condit fight due to frustration…it may all come to a head against GSP. Diaz may very well Tyson his way out of this fight by the 4^th round. Having said this, GSP by decision or nothing is where the money should go.

Parlay 1
Ricci+Elkins

Parlay 2
Condit+Cruickshank

Parlay 3
Roop+Story

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 157: Rousey vs. Carmouche’ Edition

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

For the first time in UFC history, a card will not only feature but be headlined by a women’s title fight in the bantamweight division. We know what you’re thinking, “How are they going to fit an entire kitchen into the octagon?” but hear us out for a second. Pitting Olympic bronze medalist Ronda Rousey against Marine tuff Liz Carmouche, UFC 157 will look to break down the wall that has existed between men’s and women’s MMA for almost two years now. We kid, we kid, but will the UFC’s women’s division steal the show come Saturday night? And technically speaking, can you steal a show when you are the main event? These questions and others will be answered this Saturday night in Anaheim at the (R)Honda Center.

And with any big MMA event comes the opportunity to chip away at (or add to) those crippling debts we all are surely facing. So join us after the jump as we highlight some of the undercard and all the main card bouts for UFC 157 with the hopes of cashing in on some attractive betting lines, which come courtesy of BestFighOdds as always.

Preliminary card:

Michael Chiesa (-200) vs. Anton Kuivanen (+170)

Currently, Chiesa is right around -225, but look for that line to close around -300 by fight night. Anton has been more of a threat on the mat than on his feet thus far in his UFC run, but giving up almost half a foot in height to the Alpha Male-affiliated Chiesa will do him no favors in either department. Chiesa should be able to control this fight with his size advantage and continue his Cinderella story in the UFC.

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Preliminary card:

Michael Chiesa (-200) vs. Anton Kuivanen (+170)

Brendan Schaub (-130) vs. Lavar Johnson (+110)

If there is one underdog to pick on this card, the argument for Lavar Johnson at +110 is strong. Lavar will enjoy a three inch reach advantage over his opponent, which has been a deciding factor in both of his UFC victories. Schaub surprised many against Cro Cop back at UFC 128 but has shown some significant holes in his stand up game (not to mention his chin) in the time since. Each unnecessary second Schaub stands with Johnson will be detrimental to both his UFC career and his ability to ingest food without wearing a bib, and being that Schaub has yet to submit an opponent in his career, we should assume for the time being that Johnson won’t become the first. Not because Johnson has an incredible ground game, but rather because he packs enough power in his hands to stop Schaub before it gets to that point, like Nog and Rothwell have in the past.

PPV Card:

Josh Neer (+240) vs. Court McGee (-280)

Court will be making his debut at 170lbs here and at -285 will be parlay bound against UFC veteran Josh Neer. Short of being robbed against Nick Ring, Court has only lost to Costa Phillipou (a top middleweight) and has never truly been dominated inside the Octagon. Neer might be able to cut Court with those vicious elbows, but McGee should have little trouble taking the fight to the ground when Neer eventually overcommits trying to close the distance. Neer is a former lightweight and McGee is a former middleweight; ultimately Court should be the stronger fighter and control this fight from start to finish.

Josh Koscheck (-470) vs. Robbie Lawler (+375)

Not much of a chance has been given to the returning Robbie Lawler here and perhaps rightfully so. Much like Paulo Thiago, Lawler is being given a puncher’s chance against Koscheck, which is a position Lawler could be dangerous in (see his fight against Melvin Manhoef). Koscheck may look for the takedown early and often, and Lawler’s ability to defend said takedown will determine this fight in and of itself. If there was a way to put money on the likelihood of Kos eye-poking Lawler in this fight I would recommend it outright, but the Koscheck by decision prop seems a little more reasonable.

Urijah Faber (-370) vs. Ivan Menjivar (+310)

A rematch 7 years in the making will be settled on Saturday night when Ivan Menjivar looks to avenge his controversial DQ loss to Urijah Faber that transpired in the now defunct TKO promotion. Urijah is approaching -400, but the speed and grappling advantage he will have against Menjivar justifies the price, especially when considering how easily Mike Easton was able to use those same skills to defeat Menjivar at UFC 148. Menjivar will not be able to catch up to Faber long enough to do any substantial damage, therefore justifying Faber’s place in our parlay.

Dan Henderson (+205) vs. Lyoto Machida (-245)

Machida is the right favorite and may prove to be too elusive for Hendo’s right hand in this fight. Machida should play the matador role in this one and simply fight off his back foot until the opportunity arises to counter Henderson; the fact that Hendo is coming off a knee injury only solidifies the notion that he may be limited in his movement. The wrestling advantage may be with Hendo, but Machida has the skills to survive on the mat and Hendo doesn’t wrestle all that much in his fights. Looking back at Franklin/Henderson, Machida has all the tools to stay on the outside and outpoint Hendo for a decision victory.

Ronda Rousey (-1200) vs Liz Carmouche (+775)

Ronda Rousey is undefeated, perfection on the mat, and way, way overpriced in this fight. A 10-to-1 favorite is usually a pointless bet to make and Ronda is no exception here, as Liz Carmouche has to know what to expect in this fight (Ed note: Not that that has helped anyone before). Liz will have to get the better of Ronda in the stand up department because a win on the ground is simply not an option. Ronda has admitted that she is not taking Liz lightly in this bout and will most likely look to put the Marine on her back and go fishing for another arm to bring home. As always, the ladies should deliver an exciting fight and start the woman’s division off with a bang.

Parlay 1
McGee + Faber

Parlay 2
Chiesa + Machida

Parlay 3
McGee + Johnson + Faber

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours.