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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 156: Aldo vs. Edgar’ Edition

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

The first pay-per-view event of 2013 is set to kick off this weekend from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, and with it comes a lot of questions about the fighters involved. Can Frankie Edgar show Rashad Evans that dropping down a weight class to fight for a title is a wise decision? Will Alistair Overeem manage to stake his claim for #1 contendership without screwing everything up again? Will Dana White finally get the revenge he’s always wanted by strangling Steve Mazzagatti to death after he blows a call during the main event?

All these questions and more will be answered in just two short days, so follow us after the jump as we highlight one bout from the undercard and all the main card bouts in order to ensure that you start off the new year with a little extra cash in your pocket. All betting lines come courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Preliminary Card:

Jacob Volkmann (-380) vs. Bobby Green (+315)

Volkmann is about as predictable as fighters come: a wrestler with limited striking who has no qualms about grinding out a 3 round decision. At 155lbs, all of Volkmann’s fights have ended up on the ground, so this may boil down to whether or not Green will be able to submit Volkmann off his back like Paul Sass was able to do at UFC 146. At -380, I am willing to bet that Volkmann is able to avoid getting caught by Green’s submissions and score a decision win.

Main Card:

Joseph Benavidez (-245) vs. Ian McCall (+205)

A Team Alpha Male fighter in a non title fight is generally a safe bet, but Benavidez sitting at -250 is a little too rich for my tastes, however. Ian McCall is as durable as they come and even though he has had a rough go in life (especially of late), he has the speed and craftiness to give Joseph all he can handle. The prop bet that this fight goes the distance is the safest bet here.

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Preliminary Card:

Jacob Volkmann (-380) vs. Bobby Green (+315)

Main Card:

Joseph Benavidez (-245) vs. Ian McCall (+205)

Jon Fitch (-190) vs Demian Maia (+165)

Jon Fitch showcased both his entertaining side andhis excellent submissions defense against Erick Silva in his last outing at UFC 153. Demian Maia is a submission specialist –perhaps the best submission fighter Fitch has ever faced — and the very fact that Jon has managed to stay away from being submitted in his UFC career may be his undoing here. Fitch’s baiting style may catch up to him here, as I believe Maia will be both technically sound and strong enough to submit Fitch if the opportunity presents itself. Demian Maia for the submission victory upset at +150 is the most appealing underdog bet on the main card due to the high likelihood that this fight will end up on the mat.

Alistair Overeem (-380) vs Antonio Silva (+315)

The -400 line suggests Alistair will be able to find Silva’s chin (which, come on) before this fight finds the ground. Antonio Silva was not afraid to trade with Browne in his KO victory at UFC on FX 5, which could be problematic should he entertain that same notion with perhaps the most elite striker in the heavyweight division. I’m going to take the obvious bet here and say that Alistair stuffs the takedown attempts and uses his superior striking to become the no.1 contender to ~~Junior’s~~ Cain’s heavyweight title.

Rashad Evans (-500) vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+400)

As much as it would be nice to think Lil’ Nog will catch Rashad in this fight, the steep price of -500 for Evans basically crushes those dreams. Not sure how this fight was thought up by the match makers, but if Lil’Nog’s track record against wrestlers in the UFC is any indication, Rashad would not be an ideal opponent for competitive purposes. Evans will crawl out at the opening bell, use his speed to exploit the openings created by Lil’ Nog’s boxing heavy offense, and take this fight to the mat, where he might even finish the Brazilian legend.

Jose Aldo (-220) vs Frankie Edgar (+180)

Aldo is one of the most dominant champions in the UFC, a consensus top five pound-for-pound fighter who has rarely shown vulnerability inside the Octagon. Edgar will be going into his 7^th straight title fight at a weight class that many feel he should have been fighting at all along. There are several variables in this fight, but the most glaring one is whether or not Edgar’s lead leg will be able to withstand Aldo’s onslaught of kicks long enough to use his excellent conditioning as a determining factor. This will undoubtedly be Aldo’s toughest fight to date, as many believe he is fighting the true lightweight champion here and a guy who will dictate a pace that Aldo will not be able to match. Honestly, it might just be best to sit back and enjoy this superfight, because the lines just aren’t wide enough to warrant a big bet.

Parlay 1
Volkmann+Overeem+Evans

Parlay 2
Maia+Overeem+Evans

Parlay 3 (Bellator Special)
Sarnavskiy+Volkmann+Evans

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 155 Edition

(If you ever needed a sign that Photoshop is out of control in this country, look no further than the Koopa Troopas facing off in this photo.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This Saturday night, Zuffa will close out 2012 with a rematch between former UFC champion Cain Velasquez and current heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos. It has since been revealed that both fighters were injured heading into their original matchup (cue the guy who says “all fighters fight with injuries”), so there are a lot of extraneous factors heading into the rematch that you should seriously consider before placing your bets.

With a 3-4 record over the past 7 UFC shows, the GAE has slipped into the red for the first time since UFC 148 (thanks in no small part to that God damned injury curse) and we need a boost to avoid dining on Newfoundland steak and mashed potatoes in 2013. UFC on Fox 5 was a particularly cruel mistress, and like a Diaz brother taking a realtor’s exam, the result was a miserable failure. So follow us after the jump as we keep it short and sweet in the hopes of turning a profit for UFC 155: Dos Santos vs. Velasquez 2.

Preliminary card:

Max Holloway (-380) vs. Leonard Garcia (+290)

Leonard Garcia will be looking to avoid his fourth consecutive loss against a young up-and-comer out of Hawaii in Max Holloway. Holloway will enjoy a 12yr advantage in the father time category and I believe Garcia gives him the stand up fight he wants on Saturday night. Holloway will be too fast and this may very well look like a Cerrone/Garcia barnyard sparring session, with Holloway playing the role of “The Cowboy.” Max makes the parlay list and wins in an exciting affair as “Bad Boy” tries to find the mark with those crazy hands of his while Holloway picks him apart from the outside.

(If you ever needed a sign that Photoshop is out of control in this country, look no further than the Koopa Troopas facing off in this photo.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Preliminary card:

Max Holloway (-380) vs. Leonard Garcia (+290)

Brad Pickett (-105) vs. Eddie Wineland (-115)

In a PPV card-worthy affair, two of the top bantamweight contenders do battle to see who moves up the ladder in the 135lbs division. Both fighters are coming off equally impressive KO victories — Wineland stopping Jorgensen and Pickett finishing Jabouin. While I believe Pickett’s advantage is on the ground here, something tells me Pickett may opt to strike with Eddie, which basically is where Wineland has his best chance of finding victory. Pickett may only need “One Punch” to stop fights, but he sure likes to take more than one punch during said fights, and I believe that where Jabouin did not have the power to gain Brad’s respect, Wineland will. At almost even money, I like Wineland to outwork Pickett and take this fight via decision, as both fighters are very difficult to finish.

PPV Card:

Chris Leben (-155) vs. Derek Brunson (+135)

In what may be a microcosm of 2012 for the UFC, this fight has suspensions, injuries and short notice replacements all wrapped together in one main card fight. Derek Brunson may be the first fighter to ever make his UFC debut coming off of back-to-back losses, but I suppose it has been that kind of year for Zuffa. I like the -150 territory with Leben as the small favorite, but until I see how “The Crippler” looks in the octagon, I will stay away from placing such a wild card match up in any parlays.

Yushin Okami (-110) vs. Alan Belcher (-110)

Cashing in as a huge underdog in his last outing, Alan Belcher comes into this fight at even money against a career top five middleweight in Yushin Okami. This fight is close at the books and comes down to where this fight will take place, on the feet with Belcher getting the better of Okami or on the ground with Okami on top winning in the eyes of the judges. I am not entirely sure if Belcher will shy away from the ground here or welcome a grappling affair with Okami, but if the latter is true I do not like his odds against Yushin. Belcher may keep this fight standing but I am unsure if he will be able to and ultimately will not place this fight in a parlay. Belcher by TKO or Okami by decision (just like Gustafsson vs Shogun with better odds).

Costa Philippou (-110) vs. Tim Boetsch (-110)

How do you get pick ‘em odds when you place a fighter coming off back-to-back victories over top tier 185ers against an up-and-coming prospect whose highest profile victory came against Court McGee? I’m not quite sure, but the argument that Philippou can outbox and even stop the Barbarian is just as plausible as the notion that Boetsch could find a way to win in his last two bouts, yet he did all the same. I think training with guys like Chris Weidman will serve Costa well in this fight, but Boetsch is a cut above any competition Costa has faced before. That being said, I like Philippou to stop the takedown and steal Boetsch’s momentum in the 185 division.

Jim Miller (-220) vs. Joe Lauzon (+180)

Jim Miller is a little over -200 against the submission ace Joe Lauzon, who is definitely the favorite to win if this fight does not get out of the first round. Miller has shown that he has some submissions skills against strong grapplers (Oliveira) as well as some difficulties (Nate Diaz), but I see the more durable Miller being able to take this fight into the latter rounds, where Lauzon generally seems to fade. Not going to include him in the parlay, but I think Miller bounces back from his loss, out wrestles Lauzon, and wins by decision.

Junior Dos Santos (-200) vs Cain Velasquez (+170)

I do not believe there is a fighter in the HW division who can take the belt from JDS right now, plain and simple. Cain needs to take this fight down to the ground if he is going to win, something he has acknowledged and something that no one has been able to do to dos Santos yet. Did Cain not hit his takedown in the first fight due to a torn ligament in his knee? Or was “Cigano” simply able to avoid the takedown like he has been able to do against every opponent who has tried before in the UFC? Until I see Junior put on his back or even rocked during stand up exchanges, I will continue to surmise that these things won’t happen to him. Cain may once again be the biggest threat JDS has faced, but the line now is -200 because the public is starting to believe that maybe Cain will not be able to take JDS down repeatedly over the course of the fight without catching a KO shot from the champ first. I think JDS wins this fight inside the distance and retains the HW title.

Parlay 1:
Holloway-JDS ($30 wins $30)

Parlay 2:
Guillard-JDS ($10 wins $17)

Parlay 3:
Holloway-Wineland ($10 wins $14)

Here’s hoping to see you all healthy, happy and wealthy in 2013, Nation. Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours.

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC on FOX 5: Henderson vs. Diaz’ Edition

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This may be the 5^th installment of the UFC on FOX, but somehow it feels like the very first time the UFC will be showcased for the mass cable viewing audience. With a card that far and away surpasses any previous cable-accessible card in the sport’s history, FOX has dubbed this week “Fight Week” and rightfully so. Both parties seem to be maximizing their potential for UFC on FOX 5, but we’ll have to wait until Saturday to determine whether or not the key to success on network television is having both title fights with a solid supporting card and the steady promotion FOX has offered for this event in the days leading up to it.

With a 3-3 record over the past 6 UFC PPV’s, it’s time for The Gambling Addiction Enabler to sink or swim (or specifically, find ourselves at the bottom of the ocean with a fancy matching pair of cinder blocks for shoes). So Join us as we highlight some of the undercard and all the main card bouts in the hopes of bringing you Taters some early holiday funds. All the betting lines come courtesy of BestFightOdds, per usual.

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Facebook Preliminary card

Scott Jorgensen (-240) vs. John Albert (+200)

Hovering around -270 Jorgensen makes the parlay must category. John Albert is 1-2 in the UFC facing opponents who I believe Jorgensen would beat hands down. It was not long ago that Scott went the distance with a guy named Renan Barao (maybe you’ve heard of him?) and I cannot see Albert, despite being the bigger fighter, being able to dictate how this fight goes. Jorgensen is one of those fighters who loses fights against the upper talent in the division but destroys fighters who are not part of that group (*cough* Ken Stone *cough*).

FX Preliminary Card

Dennis Siver (-310) vs Nam Phan (+255)

Even though we are talking 30 cents on the dollar territory, having a victory already under his belt against one of the better 145 pounders fighting a lesser caliber fighter is a good look for Dennis Siver. Phan is solid fighter, but not an underdog who can win here up against a better striker who has plenty experience fighting higher level UFC opponents. It might not be a steamrolling, but Siver should be able to out strike Nam and keep this fight standing possibly taking a decision on the cards.

Tim Means (-340) vs Albert Trujillo (+280)

Albert Trujillo will be making his UFC debut against Tim Means, who is sporting a perfect 2-0 record in the promotion. Another -300 fighter who is parlay bound, Tim Means has lost just once in the last seven years and has half a foot height advantage like he did in his last bout, which he finished in the first round in absolutely brutal fashion. Trujillo may be able to pose the puncher’s chance here and be tough enough to take this fight the distance, but I do not see him being able to outwork “The Dirty Bird” in this one.

Yves Edwards (+180) vs Jeremy Stephens (-220)

Anytime there is a 10 year gap between fighters, it is generally wise to go with the younger fighter and this is surely the case with Stephens (26yrs old( vs Edwards (36yrs old). This fight should be entertaining and I believe Stephens is the stronger fighter who is just as technical in the striking department and equally skilled on the ground as Edwards. Stephens has gone the distance against arguably two of the top 5 lightweights in his past two bouts while Yves has fought mid level lightweights since returning to the UFC with mixed results. A -200 line that says Stephens will not get KO’d, subbed, or outworked by a 36yr old lands this fight on the parlay as well.

Main Card on FOX

Mike Swick (-165) vs Matt Brown (+145)

Matt Brown has rallied off more wins in the past year than Swick has had fights, but “Quick” dealt with adversity well in his last fight against Demarques Johnson and proved he can finish a fight with his accurate striking. I believe this fight shows Brown as the small underdog based on the fact that Swick has the potential to win this fight standing or on the ground. Stephen Thompson had success standing against Brown but was a fish out of water on the ground and I believe Swick has the skill to keep this fight standing while out striking “The Immortal.” I like Swick and the nearly even money line is worth a look.

BJ Penn (+245) vs Rory MacDonald (-290)

Another 10 year difference in age combined with the fact that BJ has not found the fountain of youth beyond his improved physical appearance…again…has me leaning on Rory to make this fight look like round 3 of Fitch/Penn. MacDonald is very hittable and BJ has some of the best hands in the UFC, but Rory trains with GSP, has takedowns like GSP, and should not have much issue bringing BJ to the ground in this fight. I think BJ is in the wrong weight class and despite having an excellent ground game, Rory may just be too strong for BJ’s submissions game. He will likely take risks to deliver his trademark GnP to BJ with little regard to the threat of being submitted. I’m not counting BJ out completely, but we have seen the Prodigy move to 170 before and the outcome was a draw and a loss leading to a retirement announcement.

Shogun Rua (+185) vs Alexander Gustafsson (-230)

A little over a year and a half ago, Shogun was +170 going into his fight with Jon Jones as the LHW champion. This Saturday against Gustafsson, Rua is right around +185 and this may be an opportunity to take advantage of picking a solid underdog to win. Gustafsson has not fought the same level of competition as Rua in the UFC and while he has looked impressive in victory, the names he has beaten do not jump off the page just yet. Gustafsson could very well take this fight to the ground and control Rua early and often looking for a decision win, but Rua has the ability to end this fight on the feet and on the ground if he hurts Alexander on the feet. I see Gustafsson by decision or Rua by KO or Submission.

Ben Henderson (-155) vs Nate Diaz (+135)

Henderson is undefeated since moving over to the UFC and will be looking to defend his title against his toughest test yet. Had I not seen Nate’s last fight against Jim Miller, I would quickly predict Diaz to be taken down by Bendo and grinded out over 5 rounds. I made the mistake of picking Miller over Diaz precisely due to the fact that I believed Miller would be able to take Diaz down when the striking game was not going in his favor. What I did not know was that Nate has finally developed his take down defense, which leads me to believe he will be able to stuff the lightweight kingpin’s efforts to bring this fight to the ground. In the past, Nate has been taken down by Stevenson, Guida and Maynard with all those bouts resulting in losing efforts. Something clicked against Miller (who had never been finished) and Diaz controlled the fight from the get-go. Benson seems to be impervious to submissions, but if he allows Diaz to lock in a guillotine (like Cerrone) or take his back (like Pettis) he may find out how good Gracie Jiu Jitsu really is. Like Pettis, Diaz is heavy on his lead leg, which will offer a nice target for Henderson to hit, but Bendo was unable to take advantage of this against “Showtime” and I believe the same will happen with Nate. With an advantage in the stand up and submissions department, I will go with Nate Diaz to submit Ben Henderson to become the new UFC lightweight champion.

Parlay 1 ($15)
Stephens-Jorgensen

Parlay 2 ($10)
Jorgensen-Means-Siver-Stephens

Parlay 3 ($15)
MacDonald-Diaz-Means

Parlay 4 ($10)
Swick-Stephens-Siver

Parlay 5 ($5)
Jorgensen-Diaz-Means-MacDonald-Stephens

Parlay 6 ($5)
Rua-Easton-Siver

Please share your thoughts and let us know who you like and why.

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours.

Book Review: Betting on MMA By Jason Rothman Provides a Succinct Yet Thorough Examination of “Value Investing” and Its Relation to MMA Gambling

By Jared Jones

I appreciate honesty in writing. I am also a tremendous hypocrite, which is why I often resort to trickery, tomfoolery, and outright fabrications when discussing this thing we call MMA with you Taters. I’m less a blogger, more a magician — a line that I would never suggest you use to pick up women with — and more often than not I resort to a near constant influx of red herrings and other intentional misdirects to even make it through a post. But amidst all the deceit and double-crosses, I do actually manage to squeeze in a few instances of genuine honesty with you readers, more often than not in the Gambling Addiction Enabler pieces I contribute when Dan “Get Off Me” George doesn’t feel up to it.

So when I turned to the introductory page of Jason Rothman’s Betting on MMA to find the statements located directly below, I was pretty much assured that I’d be getting exactly what I wanted out of his look into the world of MMA gambling.

This book is about making money from betting on the sport of mixed martial arts. And that is the only thing this book is about.

If you do not know what a triangle choke is, then this book is not for you.

And indeed, Rothman’s guide analyzing everything from money line odds to fighter attributes to the power of hype makes no attempt to wow you with its prose. The writing style, though sometimes cryptic and a bit repetitive, is simply a means to an end. That end is making you money, and although I have yet to put any of Rothman’s teachings into practice, I can assure you that Betting on MMA offers enough genuine insight and real-life examples to make it a must own for any MMA fan who fancies themselves a gambler.

By Jared Jones

This book is about making money from betting on the sport of mixed martial arts. And that is the only thing this book is about.

If you do not know what a triangle choke is, then this book is not for you.

It isn’t often that a book cover can serve as a manifest for the book itself, but Rothman (or perhaps his pubisher) has succeeded in that right as well. The cover (pictured above) features Phil Baroni in a classic fist-pose with Warren Buffet, which although clearly photoshopped, more or less dictates the two themes that will be prevalent throughout the book: Brutal honesty and business savvy.

The book itself is divided into three segments: “The Fundamentals,” “MMA Speculating,” and two appendices providing the aforementioned real-life examples of Rothman’s theories being put into practice. Using the principles of “value investing” as laid out by multibillionaire Warren Buffet, Rothman does a great job of convincing his audience that wagering on an MMA match is much easier than it looks.

“The Fundamentals” places most of its emphasis on a mathematical process of analyzing a given fighter’s chances based on their betting lines, which Rothman dubs “Handicapping Fights.” Without giving too much away, Rothman lays out a simple method of comparing/measuring both the current odds of a given fighter against the approximate chances of victory you give said fighter to determine whether or not there is a large enough “margin of safety” to place a bet. Coming from someone who usually relied on only the latter to determine his fight picks, this section is an ingenious bit of information that will surely affect my gambling methods going forward.

Part two of Betting on MMA focuses on some of the extraneous factors that surround a given fighter in the weeks/months before a fight (hype, for instance) but also takes a look at the more discernible determinants that could alter a bet. A fighters paths to victory (a.k.a how they can win the fight), his/her age, injury rumors — these are all details that MMA gambling fans should keep a look out for before placing their bets. But Rothman goes even further than that, placing an additional emphasis on staying away from fighters who “look soft” come weigh-in time. Although he uses a perfect example in Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos 1 (Cain was coming off multiple debilitating injuries), two more recent examples that strike me are Mark Munoz in his fight with Chris Weidman and Patrick Cote against Alessio Sakara last weekend. Say what you want about the ending of the latter, but in both cases, two guys showed up looking heavier around the waist than normal and paid dearly for it. Rothman also details several other fight-alternating factors, such as a given fighters “chin” and how losing a title fight can affect a fighter’s performance in the long run.

The third section of Rothman’s book provides a couple examples of low risk, big reward bets he calls “Big Game Hunting” and displays two real-life “case studies” in which Rothman puts his teachings into practice. Again, in order to see just what fights he bet on and using what logic, you’ll have to pick the book up for yourself, but suffice it to say, Rothman was spot on in both cases and the information is presented as such.

That is not to say that Rothman doesn’t paint with too broad a brush at times. For instance, when analyzing the third fight between B.J. Penn and Matt Hughes at UFC 123 using his “Paths to Victory” assessment, Rothman claims that Hughes had no method through which he could win the fight and therefore wouldn’t justify a bet, despite the fact that Hughes had managed to both exploit Penn’s lack of cardio at 170 and his own size advantage when he defeated Penn in the pair’s second showing at UFC 63. Granted, I would have never bet on Hughes in that fight and Rothman was ultimately correct in his analysis, but to claim that Hughes had no way of winning seems a little presumptuous. It is a small complaint that is purely subjective, and truly one of the only ones I could find while reviewing the book. Other than the somewhat odd spacing of words and sentences at times, which I will chalk up as a mistake on the publisher’s part.

At 100 pages on the nose, Betting on MMA is succinct enough to read through in an hour or two, yet thorough enough to provide a lifetime’s worth of knowledge when it comes to gambling on MMA. You can purchase a paperback version of Betting on MMA here, a Kindle version here, or check out Rothman’s official site for all your gambling needs here.

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 154 Edition

(So there we were, about to face off at the UFC 154 press conference when Georges finally decided to POP THE QUESTION!! ERMAGERD!!)

A ~~fortune cookie~~ wise man once told me that the frustrating thing about questions is that they do not always have answers. This Saturday night, Zuffa’s globetrotting MMA organization returns to the province of Quebec — the birthplace of the UFC in Canada — to answer the burning question: Who is the undisputed king of the 170 lbs division? GSP may be the PPV king of the UFC, but during his 20 month layoff due to reconstructive knee surgery, Carlos Condit has quietly and somewhat controversially asserted himself as the welterweight division’s top dog.

With a current record of 3-2 over the past 5 UFC PPV’s, the GAE’s back is against the wall and in need of another profitable evening if it is to be still considered as the champion of the odds breakers, bloggers and “professional gamblers” of the mixed martial arts world (which it totally is). So follow us after the jump as we highlight select bouts from the undercard and all contests on the main card in an attempt to save those who laid 1600 bucks on a Franklin to beat Le ticket from the man in the black trench coat. All odds courtesy of BestFightOdds.com.

(So there we were, about to face off at the UFC 154 press conference when Georges finally decided to pop the question! ERMAGERD!!)

Facebook prelims:

Matt Riddle (-160) vs John Maguire (+140)

While some would credit Riddle’s impressive submission victory at UFC 149 to his use of marijuana (Ed note: Seriously? If anyone honestly believes this, just let us know so we can hit you on the head with a tack hammer because YOU ARE A RETARD), Matt seems to understand what he needs to do to win fights these days. Maguire recently lost a unanimous decision to a bigger, stronger grappler in John Hathaway at UFC on FUEL 5, someone he is essentially paired up with again this weekend. I believe we see Riddle approach this fight with the same mentality as his previous two fights in the UFC, fighting with the W in mind. The price is fair and parlay-worthy as I see Riddle being able to fend off all of Maguire’s submissions while maintaining control of “The One” on the mat.

FX prelims:

Mark Bocek (+125) vs Rafael Dos Anjos (-145)

If I had to pick an underdog on this card it would be Mark Bocek, who is essentially fighting out of his own backyard and hovering around the +130 range. Dos Anjos has shown that he has issues with strong grapplers throughout his UFC career and despite being a BJJ black belt, I believe that Bocek is the stronger grappler of the two. Look for the Tri Star fighter to close the distance, force Rafael against the cage and look for the takedown for the majority of this fight. It may not be pretty, but Bocek has the ability to win here.

Patrick Cote (-275) vs Alessio Sakara (+235)

All of a sudden, Cote doesn’t look so bad when you consider what happened to Rich Franklin this past weekend. I believe Cote has the chin to stick it out with Sakara and either finish Alessio or at the very least profit from the hometown 29-28 on the cards if the fight goes the distance. Even near 30 cents on the dollar Cote will find his way into one of the parlays for old time sake.

Main Card:

Mark Hominick (-300) vs Pablo Garza (+250)

Hominick is simply too tough a puzzle to figure out at this point in his career. With changes both professionally and personally over the past two years of his life, “The Machine” needs to prove that he is not a shell of the former 145 contender who actually won a round against Jose Aldo at UFC 129. My money will go towards the prop that this fight does not go the distance; Garza only going to the cards once in his last six fights and Hominick losing two of his last three fights by decision sets the scene for a finish here if Hominick hopes to right the ship and avoid a fourth straight loss. I believe Hominick wins inside the distance possibly by submission.

Nick Ring (+220) vs Costa Philippou (-260)

Those who follow the GAE know that I have a strong handle on these two fighters. Hovering around -250, Philippou is a solid betting favorite here, essentially showing in the past he will not be smothered and definitely not be out struck by his opponent. Nick came very close to being finished against McGee in his last outing and I believe Costa’s ever improving game shines in this fight, making it virtually impossible for the judges to give the fight to Ring on the cards if it gets there. Costa makes the parlay.

Francis Carmont (-260) vs Tom Lawlor (+220)

Carmont seems to be pretty much better than Lawlor everywhere in this fight. The price of -250 on Carmont is just right and since moving shop to Tri Star, the Frenchman is undefeated as a mixed martial artist. Lawlor has the ability to play spoiler by trapping Carmont in a submission, but I believe Carmont will simply be too strong for “Filthy” and find a way to a decision victory.

Martin Kampmann (+125) vs Johny Hendricks (-145)

The Hitman as a small underdog is the play to make against the heavy handed wrestler here. While many believe Kampmann may have trouble with Johny’s power — especially in his left hand (see Daley vs. Kampmann) — Hendricks may have a tough time finding the mark with a technical savant like Martin. I think Kampmann stays on the outside, uses his footwork and wins by decision in this fight. I like the prop that this fight goes the distance and will lay my money there.

Carlos Condit (+280) vs Georges St-Pierre (-340)

Carlos Condit has never lost a five rounder in his career, and is probably the most well rounded fighter GSP has faced in his career. What this fight will come down to is whether or not GSP is still capable of landing his signature explosive takedown after surgery and a long layoff. In the 5^th round of his fight with Nick Diaz, Condit showed that he can be taken down and once on the mat can be controlled by a fighter who has strong grappling skills. Due to the layoff, there are simply too many factors at play to pick GSP to win this fight in a parlay, although I do believe GSP will take Condit down and grind out a decision victory.

Parlay 1
-Riddle-Philippou

Parlay 2
-Philippou-Cote-Carmont-Bocek

Props
-Bocek/Dos Anjos Fight goes the distance
-Ring/Philippou Fight does not go the distance
-Kampmann/Hendricks Fight goes the distance

Bet what you feel comfortable with, more on the parlays, less on the props. Please share your thoughts and let us know who you like and why.

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 153? Edition

(Well, at least the poster is as half-assed as the main event.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

I’ll be honest, when I first heard of the new main event for UFC 153, I thought we were all the victims of some intricate ruse on the UFC’s part. Surely the head honchos at Zuffa didn’t consider a “fun” squash match on the level of Joe Lauzon vs Jens Pulver to be the best possible option for a country that was recently denied the biggest fight of all time, right? But I guess when an injury curse on the level of 2012’s hits, you do what you can to simply stay afloat, and in that sense the UFC has succeeded.

Luckily for us, the UFC has also succeeded in putting together a card that provides plenty of opportunities to prosper from a wagering perspective as well. This time around, I will attempt to follow the lead of Jared “Money Bags” Jones, who provided both the gift and the curse for UFC on FX 5: Browne vs. Silva with his parlay picks, so follow me as I highlight a few names on the preliminary cards for Facebook and FX and breakdowns of all fights on the PPV portion of UFC 153. All betting odds come courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Facebook + FX prelims

Reza Madadi stands out in the two FB fights; Sweden has been hot in the octagon lately and I think “Mad Dog” (not Anthony Macias) at around -200 has the right combination of size and all around ground advantage to deal with Marcello’s submissions game and win his second straight UFC fight.

Gleison Tibau hovering around -160 should be able to stifle fellow Brazilian Francisco Drinaldo and find a way back into the UFC win column after dropping a hard fought loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 148. Tibau has fought solid competition throughout his lengthy UFC career and I do not think Francisco has the right tools to win this fight. An underdog that may be worth a look is Renee Forte at around +200 against Sergio Moraes, who dropped a unanimous decision last time out due in part to his in-ring demeanor, which did not seem to go over well with the judges.

(Well, at least the poster is as half-assed as the main event.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

I’ll be honest, when I first heard of the new main event for UFC 153, I thought we were all the victims of some intricate ruse on the UFC’s part. Surely the head honchos at Zuffa didn’t consider a “fun” squash match on the level of Joe Lauzon vs Jens Pulver to be the best possible option for a country that was recently denied the biggest fight of all time, right? But I guess when an injury curse on the level of 2012′s hits, you do what you can to simply stay afloat, and in that sense the UFC has succeeded.

Facebook + FX prelims

Main Card

Demian Maia (-150) vs Rick Story (+130)

The line on Maia has steadily climbed towards the -160 area, and despite many picking him to lose against Kim in his WW debut, the BJJ whiz out grappled one of the best WW in the world. Story fights best when he can impose his will, but against Maia, clinching against the fence or taking the fight to the ground may not be the best strategy to win. Maia makes the parlay and remains undefeated at 170lbs.

Phil Davis (-380) vs Wagner Prado (+315)

The only thing that sticks out here (like a finger to the eye! *rimshot*) is that Wagner caught Davis once in their first fight. I am not rushing to the window to lay -350 and up on Phil Davis in Brazil as I need to see more from the American wrestling standout to pay that kind of price fighting in Wagner’s back yard.

Jon Fitch (+115) vs Erick Silva (-135)

This is one of those Old School vs. New School fights, a more or less one-dimensional fighter against a more well rounded fighter. Silva has a fantastic sprawl and represents the new breed of fighter who use defensive wrestling to compliment a strong stand up game. Jon Fitch will no doubt fight hard, but I think his old school style may fail him for a second time in a row for the first time in his career. I am going with Silva sitting at -140 for the parlay as I do not think Fitch will be able to win the stand up game or keep Silva on the ground long enough to take the fight on the cards.

Glover Teixeira (-400) vs Fabio Maldonado (+325)

I’m on the Glover bandwagon even with the steep price coming in around -400. Trained by everyone from Marco Ruas to John Hackleman and having such sparring partners as Chuck Liddell at his disposal, Glover may just know a thing or two about how to handle himself in the stand up exchange with Fabio. It will be interesting to see if Teixeira attempts to show off his grappling skills in this fight or times a perfect counter to a Maldonado body shot, but it seems like in either case, Glover is ending this fight and stamping his name towards the top of the 205 division. I like the prop that this fight does not go the distance and perhaps ends before the half way mark of the contest.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (-320) vs Dave Herman (+260)

I want to lay it down on Big Nog and I think the fight plays well into his skill set, but coming off a serious injury against a fairly experienced younger, bigger fighter is a tough spot for the legend here. I do not see this fight going the distance and I would rather sit back and enjoy Antonio’s return as the betting favorite and see if the fight ends before the 15 minute mark.

Anderson Silva (-1100) vs Stephan Bonnar (+700)

Silva. Just lay the 3 grand you have lying around the house to make 200 bucks and thank me later.

Parlay 1
Madadi – Tibau – Maia

Parlay 2
Tibau – E.Silva – Maia – Teixeira

Props
-Teixeira/Maldonado does not go the distance
-Bezerra/Sicilia does not go the distance
-Big Nog/Dave Herman does not go the distance

Enjoy the fights CP nation and may the winners be yours!