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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs. Silva’ Edition

After what has been a long six weeks, a UFC event is finally on the horizon, Potato Nation. And thank Allah, because we were starting to get desperate. Like a Jencum addict without a balloon desperate. In either case, tomorrow night’s UFC on FUEL event provides the perfect opportunity for us to regret ever becoming gambling addicts in the first place, so let’s skip the bullshit and get right to it. Check out the betting lines, courtesy of BestFightOdds, and join us after the jump for our advice on where to place your hard-earned cash. .

Main Card
Alexander Gustafsson (-220) vs. Thiago Silva (+180)
Brian Stann (-400) vs. Alessio Sakara (+325)
Paulo Thiago (-145) vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (+125)
Dennis Siver (+150) vs. Diego Nunes (-170)
DaMarques Johnson (+140) vs. John Maguire (-160)
Brad Pickett (-230) vs. Damacio Page (+190)

Preliminary Card (Facebook)
James Head (+200) vs. Papy Abedi (-240)
Tom DeBlass (-200) vs. Cyrille Diabate (+170)
Magnus Cedenblad (+225) vs. Francis Carmont (-265)
Yoislandy Izquierdo (+190) vs. Reza Madadi (-230)
Besam Yousef (+250) vs. Simeon Thoresen (-300)
Jason Young (-185) vs. Eric Wisely (+160)

Here we go…

The Main Event: Given all the praise Gustafsson has been receiving as of late, combined with the fact that Thiago has been out of action for over a year now, the spread is a bit closer than we would have imagined. It might be due to Gustafsson’s recent list of victims, which includes the now retired Matt Hamill and the 41-year old Vladimir Matyushenko, or it could be attributed to the fact that we’ve yet to see Gustafsson’s chin really tested. Given Silva’s well documented power, he’s not a terrible choice if you’re looking to go balls out, but we’re going to stick with “The Mauler” here. He’s undoubtedly quicker than Silva and a smarter fighter to boot. He should have this, more than likely by way of second round GnP TKO.

The Good Dogs: At first glance, Siver looks pretty good as a slight dog. He’s coming off a tough loss to Donald Cerrone, however, prior to that he put together an impressive four fight win streak over good to mid-range competition. But when you take into account that he’s making his featherweight debut, and took two tries to make weight, he could be in for a long night against Nunes, who will likely hold the speed advantage over the German. It’s a tough call, but should be a great fight no matter which way it goes. Just for the heck of it, we’ll place a small bet on Siver, because the man has looked Goddamn brilliant in most of his victories.

And speaking of great fights, look no further than the Paulo Thiago/Siyar Bahadurzada scrap, which has FOTN written all over it. Thiago has been struggling as of late, recently rebounding from a two fight losing streak by decisioning David Mitchell back at UFC 134, but is one tough SOB in victory and defeat. Bahadurzada, on the other hand, has been on a killing spree over the past three years, scoring five wins by way of (T)KO in his current six fight win streak. The fact that he’s making his UFC debut does not tilt the scales in his favor, nor does the fact that Thiago has never been finished before, but like we said, it all comes down to how much you’re willing to lose. If that number is relatively high, a side bet on Bahadurzada is more than justifiable. Just keep him out of your parlay.

Looking over the rest of the card, one name that pops out is Damarques Johnson, who is coming off an impressive KO victory over a less than impressive opponent in Clay Harvison. We’ve only seen Maguire fight once in the UFC, on the other hand, and though he demonstrated a great grappling base when he decisioned Justin Edwards at UFC 138, he has yet to face anyone with as much experience as Johnson. If “Darkness” can keep it standing, look for him to end this one early. The fact that Cyrille Diabate is listed as a significant underdog to an injury replacement opponent on less than a week’s notice in Tom DeBlass should tell you the direction that one’s going to go. Steer clear.

The Sure Thing: Brad Pickett. Damacio Page hasn’t fought since his rematch with Brian Bowles at UFC Live 3 in which he was choked out at the exact same time he was choked out in their first meeting. He’s got some decent power, but is simply too one dimensional to handle a seasoned veteran like Pickett, whose only losses in the past five years have come to top contenders in Scott Jorgensen and Renan Pegado.

Prelim Steal: Reza Madadi, who more than lives up to his nickname.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Gustafsson + Stann + Pickett + Carmont + Madadi

Suggested wager for a $50 stake
-$20 on the parlay
-$5 on Silva
-$5 on Siver
-$10 on Bahadurzada
-$10 on Johnson

-J. Jones

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 144 Edition

(In the main event, actor Ryan Reynolds defends his belt against a 100% Asian version of Ben Henderson. Plus, Rampage Jackson faces off against a prime Wes Sims. The referee for this evening will be Dan Miragliotta.)

The UFC’s return to Japan this weekend features plenty of attractive opportunities to earn money without working for it. So where do the edges lie? How much better will the UFC’s Japanese stars look on their home turf? And should you really be betting money with tax season coming up? (Just kidding, that one was a trick question.) Complete UFC 144: Edgar vs. Henderson odds are below, via BestFightOdds, followed by our occasionally-helpful betting advice. Check it out, and be sure to come back to CagePotato Saturday night for our liveblog of the fights, starting with the FX prelims broadcast at 8 p.m. ET.

MAIN CARD
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Ben Henderson (+115)
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-237) vs. Ryan Bader (+220)
Cheick Kongo (-270) vs. Mark Hunt (+270)
Jake Shields (-300) vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (+269)
Yushin Okami (-331) vs. Tim Boetsch (+300)
Hatsu Hioki (-167) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+155)
Anthony Pettis (-220) vs. Joe Lauzon (+220)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX)
Takanori Gomi (-200) vs. Eiji Mitsuoka (+175)
Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto (-288) vs. Vaughan Lee (+275)
Riki Fukuda (-300) vs. Steve Cantwell (+258)
Takeya Mizugaki (-200) vs. Chris Cariaso (+172)

PRELIMINARY BOUT (Facebook)
Tiequan Zhang (-250) vs. Issei Tamura (+250)

The Main Event: At this point, we shouldn’t have to tell you not to bet against Frankie Edgar when a belt is on the line. The question is, do you put money on him at these odds, or awkwardly back out of the room? I have faith in Edgar’s tenacity, but Henderson has looked so outstanding in his 3-0 UFC stint that at the very least, it’ll be a dogfight decided on the slimmest of margins. I’m not leaving my money in the hands of the judges, and the smartest bet here is no bet at all.

The Co-Main Event: You have to understand how much this fight means to Quinton Jackson. His future is on the line, following his failed title challenge against Jon Jones last September. He’ll be fighting in front of his family, and the Japanese fans that made him a star in the first place. In short, motivation will not be an issue. Meanwhile, Ryan Bader will be stepping into Rampage’s world on Saturday night, and the enormity of the fight and the Saitama Super Arena crowd might be overwhelming. I think this is a favorable matchup for Rampage, as long as he can dodge Bader’s power-punches and stuff most of his takedowns. A modest bet on the favorite makes sense.

The Good ‘Dogs: Didn’t we learn our lesson when Joe Lauzon was marked as a 4-1 underdog against Melvin Guillard? Never sleep on J-Lau. Once again, the oddsmakers have set Joe up as the underdog, even though Pettis hasn’t quite lived up to his hype since coming over to the UFC. As soon as the fight hits the mat, the odds shift dramatically in Lauzon’s favor. I’m also leaning towards Bart Palaszewski over Hatsu Hioki — simply based on their Octagon debuts at UFC 137, in which Bart destroyed Tyson Griffin and Hioki barely got past George Roop. I’d also point out that Kid Yamamoto is a strong favorite only because he’s got home-field advantage; it’s certainly not based on his performance in the UFC.

The Reader-Submitted Parlay: “Shields, Kongo, Edgar pays out 108 on a 50 dollar bet. Simple, easy and a lock.” (Aaron B.)
We say: Shields and Kongo, sure. But again, I’m staying away from wagering on the main event. So how ’bout…

Official CagePotato Parlay: Kongo + Shields + Okami + Zhang. $10 gets you a $17.38 profit. I know, that barely covers bus fare, but you’ll want to play it safe if you’re chasing underdogs with the rest of your money.

Suggested wager for a $50 stake
– $20 on Jackson
– $10 on Lauzon
– $10 on Palaszewski
– $10 on the parlay

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC on Fox’ Edition

It’s been a long road, ladies and gentlemen, but it seems the time of network television MMA not involving Kimbo Slice and a screaming Gus Johnson is finally upon us. UFC on Fox kicks off at 9 o’clock tomorrow night, and for those of you who are looking to get some last minute gambling in, well, allow us to help you scratch that itch. Check out the betting lines, courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our Morgan Freeman-eqsue advice on what to do below.

Main Card/Event:
Cain Velasquez (-175) vs. Junior Dos Santos (+155)

Preliminary Card
Benson Henderson (-260) vs. Clay Guida (+220)
Dustin Poirier (-300) vs. Pablo Garza (+250)
Aaron Rosa (-140) vs. Matt Lucas (+120)
Mike Pierce (-340) vs. Paul Bradley (+280)
Mackens Sermizer (-115) vs. Robert Peralta (-105)
DaMarques Johnson (-270) vs. Clay Harvison (+230)
Norifumi Yamamoto (-360) vs. Darren Uyenoyama (+300)
Ricardo Lamas (-145) vs. Cub Swanson (+125)
Cole Escovedo (-260) vs. Alex Caceres (+220)

Main Card/Event:
Cain Velasquez (-175) vs. Junior Dos Santos (+155)

The Main Event: With his granite chin, KO power, and stellar wrestling base, Velasquez deserves to be the favorite here, but then again, it’s been just under a year since we’ve seen him compete. Dos Santos hasn’t been much more active, aside from his dismantling of Shane Carwin back at UFC 131, which along with his fight against Roy Nelson, has shown that “Cigano” tends to coast in the later rounds when unable to finish in the first.

But there is one outside factor that seems to have been overlooked here, and that is the Fox deal itself. Now, we’re not saying that Cain is being offered some kind of “stand up” bonus, but you have to imagine that the UFC would not want their first major network fight to be a 25 minute wrestlefuckfest. Will Cain try to stand with Dos Santos, even though he clearly has an advantage in the grappling game? Our guess is no, and if Dos Santos couldn’t knock out Nelson or Carwin, then he ain’t knocking out the champ, who should take this one.

The Good Dogs: Honestly, there aren’t many on this card. Pablo Garza has looked great in his last two outings, but Dustin Poirier’s pressure and superior striking game should earn him the victory there. Both Alex Caceres and Cole Escovedo have looked equally unimpressive in their last two performances, but “Apache Kid” should be able to handle “Bruce Leroy” with ease. And let’s hope he does, because we’re getting pretty tired of watching Caceres disgrace the great Bruce Lee with a smile on his face each time he steps into the octagon. The rest of the pack isn’t really worth wasting your time over, unless you have a thing for ridiculous, California-themed tattoos.

So that leaves us with Clay Guida. Say what you want about the (cave)man, but Guida knows how to follow a gameplan if nothing else. And lord knows he’s played the role of underdog before and come away victorious. But he’s facing a man who’s better than him in virtually every aspect, save cardio, in Ben Henderson. You think Guida can shoulder strike his way to the next lightweight title shot? Then a bet on him seems fine, just don’t get pissed at us when you don’t see any return on it.

The Easy Bets: DaMarques Johnson, for starters. He’s never been one for consistency, but he is way too seasoned, and has more ways to win than Clay Harvison, who got absolutely dominated by Seth Baczynski in his last outing. Also, “Kid” Yamamoto is going to go apeshit on Darren Uyenoyama, who we’re not sure is ready for UFC level competition to begin with.

Official CagePoato Parlay: Velasquez +Henderson + Johnson + Rosa

50 bucks nets you $205. 32, or enough to get that replica belt ironically signed by Jon Jones and Mauricio Rua. Not bad considering there are no underdogs in that parlay.

-Danga

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 138 Edition

Before we’ve even had time to clear out the cobwebs from UFC 137, this Saturday already promises to bring us more bone crushing action with UFC 138, featuring a showdown between middleweight sluggers Chris Leben and Mark Munoz. And since we will be treated to a free card this weekend, why not turn that extra cash…into more extra cash? Check out the betting lines below, courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our advice, which should have already netted you some extra dough this month.

Main Card
Mark Munoz (-265) vs. Chris Leben (+225)
Renan Barao (-135) vs. Brad Pickett (+115)
Thiago Alves (-345) vs. Papy Abedi (+285)
Terry Etim (-600) vs. Edward Faaloloto (+450)
Cyrille Diabate (-375) vs. Anthony Perosh (+285)

Undercard
Michihiro Omigawa (-340) vs. Jason Young (+250)
Philip De Fries (-135) vs. Rob Broughton (+100)
Che Mills (-225) vs. Chris Cope (+175)
Chris Cariaso (-175) vs. Vaughan Lee (+145)
Justin Edwards (-125) vs. John Macguire (-105)

The Main Event: Mark Munoz makes sense here as a pretty decent favorite; he has the kind of solid wrestling background that could easily grind out a decision over Leben, plus enough power in his hands to finish the fight, granted Leben shows up sick that night. Then again, it’s tough to bet against someone like “The Crippler,” who shows flashes of brilliance in each fight and absorbs punches like Turok absorbs power cores. And considering the fact that Demian Maia was able to rock Munoz on a couple of occasions, someone with Leben’s power could end this one quickly. But our gut says go with Munoz, who is too smart to try and stand with Leben for the entirety of the fight.

The Good Dogs: Though Renan Barao’s record is pretty immaculate, he hasn’t fought anyone near the caliber of Brad Pickett, who’s record includes wins over Ivan Menjivar and former bantamweight title challenger Demetrious Johnson. On the other hand, Pickett hasn’t fought in over a year, so your confidence in him really comes down to your belief in ring rust. But since Chael Sonnen recently proved that ring rust doesn’t exist, a bet on Pickett seems fair. Speaking of ring rust, isn’t it crazy that Terry Etim has been out for over a year with a broken rib? Good to see him back, because we had nearly forgotten how entertaining he is.

Another good dog on this card is that of Jason Young, who you may remember as the man who gave rising prospect Dustin Poirier all he could handle back at UFC 131. And although Michihiro Omigawa got completely screwed by the judges in his last fight with Darren Elkins, (at the same event, coincidentally) Young has the speed and boxing skills to put him in all kinds of trouble, and with those odds you stand to make a pretty penny when he does.

The Easy Bet: Thiago Alves. He’s fighting a UFC newbie in Papy Abedi, and for once it is an opponent who shouldn’t try, or be able to take him down for all three rounds. Expect fireworks in this one, with Alves getting the better of the exchanges en route to a second round stoppage.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Munoz + Alves + Young with a side of Philip De Fries.

A 50 dollar bet nets you $491.20. God Damn! That’ll get you those autographed Brock Lesnar DeathClutch shorts you’ve been ogling over since we all forgot your birthday.

-Danga

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 137 Edition

(Not yet………………………………..getting warmer…….)

UFC 137 is just around the bend, and since the lineup has made more changes than a MTV awards show host, we figured we’d lay out the current odds before something else horrible happens. So, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com, check out the sweetest lines available, along with our time tested advice below.

PPV Main Card
B.J. Penn (-115) vs. Nick Diaz (-105)
Matt Mitrione (-135) vs. Cheick Kongo (+115)
Roy Nelson (-290) vs. Mirko Filipovic (+245)
Hatsu Hioki (-330) vs. George Roop (+270)
There is no line yet available for the recently bumped up Tavares/Jacoby fight.

Spike TV Prelims
Donald Cerrone (-225) vs. Dennis Siver (+185)
Tyson Griffin (-290) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+245)

The undercard odds have yet to be released as well, but we only bet big here, so forgeddaboutit!

The Main Event:

(Not yet………………………………..getting warmer…….)

Spike TV Prelims
Donald Cerrone (-225) vs. Dennis Siver (+185)
Tyson Griffin (-290) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+245)

The undercard odds have yet to be released as well, but we only bet big here, so forgeddaboutit!

The Main Event: With a line as even as Penn/Diaz, you might as well be basing your pick on attendance records at this point. Both are excellent submission artists with equally deadly striking and blocks of granite for chins. It has all the ingredients for one hell of a fight, but a hard one to invest in. If the fight is changed to a five rounder, which is still up in the air, you gotta think it favors Diaz, who can literally run, swim, and cycle miles around Penn. But Paul Daley was pretty damn close to finishing him in his last fight, I don’t care what anyone says. So if you think Penn is the man to actually put Diaz away, then a modest bet wouldn’t be a terrible decision.

The Good Dogs: If Cheick Kongo’s miracle win over Pat Barry taught us anything, it’s that the man can take a licking and keep on ticking. Does Mitrione have more power in his hands than Barry? Doubtful. Has he fought anyone even close to Kongo’s level? Nope. It’s not that Mitrione can’t win it, because Kongo has looked less than brilliant as of late, the Hail Mary knockout excluded. But Kongo’s experience should pay dividends if this goes into the later rounds, so a bet on him seems fair. Having been the underdog before, Siver is tempting at +185, but he barely eeked out the nod over Matt Wiman (which I believe he deserved) and Cerrone will dictate where and how the fight takes place.

The Easy Bet: Look, I am about as big a Cro Cop fan as you get get, but even I cannot see him winning this one. Nelson has a far superior ground game plus the power to knock Cro Cop out, which, let’s be honest, has been getting to be less and less of an accomplishment. And if Mirko couldn’t knockout the man Big Nog knocked out in half a round, then he aint’ doing it to “Big Country.” I see this one ending with Cro Cop flat on his back and looking up at the lights, wondering why in the hell he named his son Filip Filipovic.

Stay the Hell Away From: George Roop. The man has never been one for consistency, and though he has scored brilliant knockouts over Chan Sung Jung and Josh Grispi, he was also blown out of the water by Mark Hominick, and has dropped decisions to Eddie Wineland and Shane Nelson. Shane who you ask? Exactly. Hatsu Hioki takes this with ease.

Official CagePotato parlay: Kongo + Nelson + Cerrone
A bet of 50 bucks nets you $158.82, or enough to buy that UFC glove autographed by Fedor Emelianenko you’ve always wanted, though I imagine its asking price is only headed downhill.

And hey, Happy We Killed Another Terrorist Day!!

-Danga

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 136 Edition

(Stock-trader vs. Wall Street protester — who ya got? Photo via MMA Mania)

Want to make some real money this weekend? Then come over to my place on Saturday afternoon and be prepared to clean some toilets. Want to make some hypothetical, for-entertainment-purposes-only money this weekend? Then check out the latest UFC 136 betting lines (via BestFightOdds) and read our gambling advice after the jump.

PPV Main Card
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Gray Maynard (+120)
Jose Aldo (-320) vs. Kenny Florian (+301)
Chael Sonnen (-255) vs. Brian Stann (+227)
Nam Phan (-210) vs. Leonard Garcia (+208)
Melvin Guillard (-312) vs. Joe Lauzon (+310)

Spike TV Prelims
Demian Maia (-275) vs. Jorge Santiago (+245)
Anthony Pettis (-277) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+250)

Facebook Prelims
Joey Beltran (+190) vs. Stipe Miocic (-210)
Tiequan Zhang (-120) vs. Darren Elkins (+115)
Aaron Simpson (-313) vs. Eric Schafer (+300)
Steve Cantwell (-135) vs. Mike Massenzio (+130)

We’ll begin…at the beginning:

(Stock-trader vs. Wall Street protester — who ya got? Photo via MMA Mania)

Spike TV Prelims
Demian Maia (-275) vs. Jorge Santiago (+245)
Anthony Pettis (-277) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+250)

Facebook Prelims
Joey Beltran (+190) vs. Stipe Miocic (-210)
Tiequan Zhang (-120) vs. Darren Elkins (+115)
Aaron Simpson (-313) vs. Eric Schafer (+300)
Steve Cantwell (-135) vs. Mike Massenzio (+130)

We’ll begin…at the beginning:

The Main Event: It’s a line that should really be dead even. But if somebody’s going to be a favorite here, should it really be Frankie Edgar? After all, he couldn’t beat Gray Maynard in either of their two previous meetings. As a slight underdog, Maynard is worth a small investment.

The Other Good ‘Dogs: A lot of them look good, actually. Chael Sonnen is coming off 14 months of controversy and inactivity, so his -255 feels a little inflated, especially against someone as focused and dangerous as Brian Stann. We all know that Leonard Garcia is bulletproof with judges, so if he can swing and grunt his way to the last bell — and not get finished by Phan — he could always end up stealing another one and doubling your money. And if Demian Maia insists on pretending he’s a striker, he’s asking to get laid out by Jorge Santiago.

The Smart Straight-Bet: Blowouts are the name of the game this weekend, with eight of the 11 matchups sitting at 2-to-1 odds or greater. You won’t get rich betting on the stiff favorites, so take a look at Tiequan Zhang at a modest -120 over Darren Elkins. Both guys are just 1-0 at featherweight, but Zhang’s aggressive grappling attack will give the American a heap of problems.

Stay Away From: Joe Lauzon. Yeah, yeah, everybody loves J-Lau, and his skill set is the perfect one to give Guillard trouble. At +310, why not put money on the grappler’s chance, right? Answer: Because Melvin is far too powerful, and he’s a little savvier about avoiding submissions these days. Guillard’s got this one, probably by KO. The same warning applies for Kenny Florian — tripling your cash on the seasoned challenger might be seductive, but you’ll likely be pissing that money away.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Aldo + Guillard + Pettis + Zhang. $20 returns a $57.18 profit. Not risky enough? Okay, $1,000 returns a $2,858 profit. Now we’re talkin’.