Tag: Melvin Guillard

Eight Ways of Looking at UFC 136

Filed under: UFCMusings, ramblings, questions, and predictions abound in the final hours before UFC 136 in Houston. Here are just a few of them, for your consideration.

I. After the first Frankie Edgar-Gray Maynard fight, who’d have guessed we’d want …

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Frankie Edgar vs. Gray MaynardMusings, ramblings, questions, and predictions abound in the final hours before UFC 136 in Houston. Here are just a few of them, for your consideration.

I. After the first Frankie Edgar–Gray Maynard fight, who’d have guessed we’d want to see two more? Certainly not me. I remember well the feeling of dull obligation when the main event at UFC 125 rolled around. I was at home, watching the pay-per-view with my wife and some friends. After the Leben-Stann fight most of my friends went home (or to the bars that might as well be their homes), and my wife went to bed. If it hadn’t been my job to stay up and write, I might have DVR’d the final fight and followed her. Thankfully, I had no choice but to watch it live, and by the end of the first round I was debating waking her up and telling her she just had to see what was happening. I didn’t (my wife’s a fan, but she doesn’t mind waiting until the morning to catch the recorded version), and it was probably the right call for the sake of domestic bliss. Still, that fight served as a reminder that no matter how many events you’ve seen, you never know for sure what you’re going to get. That’s a sword that cuts two ways, of course, and with the Edgar-Maynard trilogy we have no way of telling whether the end will be fittingly satisfying or disappointingly mediocre. Maybe the best we can hope for is that finally, after months of waiting, it will really and truly be over.


II. In terms of his legacy, Kenny Florian has never had a more important fight. It’s not just because there’s a title at stake. He’s been there before. It’s because, if he loses, this will almost certainly be the last UFC title that Florian ever gets a shot at. He’s already dropped as low as he can go, and there’s no future for him back at lightweight. Either he’s going to finally win a title, or he’s going to cement his legacy as one of the best UFC fighters to never be a champion — a sort of MMA Jim Kelly, if you will. It’s not the worst thing that could happen. Better to be Kelly than to be Ryan Leaf. It’s better still to be a champion, and Florian is looking at his last best hope.

III. So…have we all just forgotten about that whole Chael Sonnen testosterone thing? The fact that it was a huge issue after the Anderson Silva fight and a complete non-issue before this fight really makes you wonder, are our attention spans that short, or was it all really just a paperwork and disclosure issue after all? No one seems to be asking Sonnen whether he’s been using testosterone in the lead-up to UFC 136, with the exception of a guy named Aaron on our recent live chat, and kudos to him. Aaron asked Sonnen point blank whether he’s still using it and whether it’s legal for him to do so in Texas, to which Sonnen replied:

“I really can’t get into it because I don’t fully understand it myself. It’s one of those things you try to learn as best you go but I’m not the guy who handles that. I’m not a manager. And they don’t make it extremely clear. There’s not a web site or anything we can go to to find out. …It would be helpful if the commissions told us more. It makes it tough on a guy to follow a rule when nobody is willing to clarify what the rule is.”

Now who’s elusive?

IV. Gray Maynard hasn’t finished a fight inside the distance since 2007. Edgar hasn’t done it since 2009, and that was against not-so-distinguished competition in Matt Veach (who’s now riding a two-fight losing streak in the minor leagues, last time I checked). For the fans who crave finishes and berate champions who don’t deliver them, is this a kiss of death? Will they continue to care about and/or pay to see UFC lightweight title contests if it’s almost a given that it will end up in the hands of the judges? I don’t know, but personally I’ve never understood the line of reasoning that claims the only good fight is a finished fight. Granted, draws like the one we saw last time leave us feeling cold, but who can say they didn’t have a great time watching that fight? Just because no one tapped or got knocked out, that doesn’t necessarily mean it wasn’t money well spent.

V. Joey Beltran has never lost to a fighter making his UFC debut. Okay, so he’s only fought two of them so far — Rolles Gracie and Aaron Rosa — but he won both. Now he’ll try to keep the streak intact against undefeated newcomer Stipe Miocic, who the UFC reportedly has high hopes for. Can Beltran play spoiler again? Oddsmakers don’t think so. Most have Miocic as a 3-1 favorite. But then, they’ve been wrong about Beltran before.

VI. We’re about to find out a lot about Anthony Pettis‘ potential. He dazzled us with the Showtime kick in the WEC, then squandered his promised title shot with a loss to Clay Guida in his UFC debut. Now he’s relegated to the prelims in a fight against Jeremy Stephens, who is the exact sort of fighter you simply must be able to beat if you want to be a contender at this level. Stephens is a resilient scrapper with knockout power, but he’s no world-beater. He’s someone who, on paper, Pettis ought to be able to handle. But Stephens never makes it easy on you, and he’s never more than one good punch away from ruining your night. If Pettis can’t beat him, we’ll know that “Showtime” isn’t quite ready for primetime.

VII. Jorge Santiago doesn’t need to panic just yet, but he should be at least a little concerned. His last UFC run ended after two consecutive losses in 2006. Now he’s 0-1 in his return, and facing a heavy favorite in Demian Maia. A loss here doesn’t necessarily mean he’s gone — Stann and then Maia is a heck of a one-two punch in your first fights back in the UFC — but it doesn’t bode well for his future either.

VIII. Melvin Guillard didn’t have to take this fight, but why wouldn’t he? After five straight wins, he could have probably opted to sit around and wait for either a title shot or at least a clear number one contender bout. But the way the lightweight division is looking right now, on the sidelines is no place to be. By continuing to take fights Guillard not only keeps his skills sharp and his bank account full, he also keeps himself in the conversation about top UFC lightweights. When the UFC does finally get around to promoting a 155-pound title fight that doesn’t include both Maynard and Edgar, Guillard’s recent triumphs will still be fresh in people’s minds. That is, if he is indeed triumphant here. Naturally, nothing’s guaranteed, but if you didn’t think you could beat Joe Lauzon 99 times out of 100, what would make you think you could be UFC champion?

 

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Fighter vs. Writer: UFC 136 Picks with ‘King’ Mo Lawal

Filed under: UFCLast time on Fighter vs. Writer, Michael Bisping picked with his heart rather than his head at UFC 135, and it cost him the victory against yours truly.

With UFC 136 nearly upon us, I challenged former Strikeforce light heavyweight cha…

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Mo LawalLast time on Fighter vs. Writer, Michael Bisping picked with his heart rather than his head at UFC 135, and it cost him the victory against yours truly.

With UFC 136 nearly upon us, I challenged former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion and noted agent provocateur of Twitter, “King” Mo Lawal. There are few fighters more knowledgeable about the fight game (or more confident in their own knowledge of the fight game) than Lawal, so I have my work cut out for me.

As usual, we’ll start at the top of the card and work our way down. Mr. Lawal, you have the honors…


Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard

Lawal: Maynard via decision. “I love both fighters. Frankie’s a soldier, and so is Gray. Gray’s Team Thirsty. But I think Gray can pull off the decision, get a few takedowns early on and then coast. But if Frankie starts fast, he could be in trouble.”
Fowlkes: Edgar via decision. He surprised me last time with how well he dealt with Maynard’s wrestling skills, and that was after getting dropped and nearly finished. I think he sticks and moves his way to a win, and we can all finally move on our lives.

Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian

Lawal: Florian via decision. “This whole card is fighters I like, but man, I think Kenny’s going to pull it off. The southpaw stance, the elusiveness, inside leg kicks, and takedowns. I think he pull it off that way.”
Fowlkes: Aldo via decision. I just don’t see Florian being able to wrestle his way to a win before Aldo tenderizes his thighs with those kicks. The champ is too fast and has too many weapons at his disposal. Another weight class where Florian is better than everybody but the very best.

Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann

Lawal: Sonnen via decision. “I like Brian Stann, but I got to go with the wrestler on this one. Chael’s my boy. …His double-leg is tricky. No one’s figured out how to stop it. They all try and guillotine him and it never works. They get taken down. I don’t know how Brian Stann’s going to be able to stop that.”
Fowlkes: Stann via decision. I agree that the takedown will be hard to stop, but if Stann can manage it I think this becomes his fight to lose. Sonnen’s been off for over a year, and Stann’s had a lot of time to hang out in the gym and plan on how to shut down the double-leg.

Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan

Lawal: Nobody. “I think this fight’s going to be a disappointment. Not a disappointment, but there’s going to be more game-planing, and it’ll be more technical than people think. It’s a toss-up. It’s going to come down to who made the adjustments.” Even when pressed, Lawal refused to make a pick. You know what that means. Now he can only get the win on this one if it ends in a draw or, as has actually happened before, doesn’t take place at all.
Fowlkes: Phan via decision. I expect Garcia to show up telling himself he’s not just going to brawl, but then I expect him to get hit once and forget all about that. If Phan can avoid getting sucked into a street fight, like I think he can, he outpoints Garcia clearly enough this time that even the worst judges can’t miss it.

Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon

Lawal: Guillard via TKO. “Stoppage. First round. I think he’s much better, much more dynamic, and he’s more mature now. He’s a different fighter.”
Fowlkes: Guillard via TKO. I don’t know if it’ll come in the first round, but it will come. I don’t see Lauzon being able to get him on the mat, at least not for very long, and Guillard is too fast and too powerful on the feet.

Mo Lawal picks: Maynard, Florian, Sonnen, Nobody, Guillard
Ben Fowlkes picks: Edgar, Aldo, Stann, Phan, Guillard

 

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Reminder: Watch the UFC 136 Weigh-Ins Right Here at 5:00 pm ET

(Video courtesy of YouTube/UFC)

Just a friendly reminder that we will have the live stream of today’s UFC 136 weigh-ins from Houston, Texas starting at 5:00 pm ET.

There’s a pretty good chance that at least one fighter is getting shoved during the festivities. Unfortunately we likely won’t hear from Stann or Sonnen since Joe Rogan typically only interviews the main event participants, so we’l have to settle for listening to Maynard say that Frankie has his belt and to Edgar say he’s sick of fighting Gray.

Time for a few friendly wagers in the comment section.


(Video courtesy of YouTube/UFC)

Just a friendly reminder that we will have the live stream of today’s UFC 136 weigh-ins from Houston, Texas starting at 5:00 pm ET.

There’s a pretty good chance that at least one fighter is getting shoved during the festivities. Unfortunately we likely won’t hear from Stann or Sonnen since Joe Rogan typically only interviews the main event participants, so we’l have to settle for listening to Maynard say that Frankie has his belt and to Edgar say he’s sick of fighting Gray.

Time for a few friendly wagers in the comment section.

Will Sonnen’s bacne be as prevalent as it was at the UFC 117 weigh-ins?

Will Guillard get in Lauzon’s face?

Will Dana be wearing a Houston Expos shirt?

Will Joe Silva be wearing a leather jacket?

Will Arianny go lighter on the make-up than she did at the 135 weigh-ins?

Will Keith Florian annoy you at all during the broadcast?

UFC 136: By the Odds

Filed under: UFCWith UFC 136 just a day away, oddsmakers have made their picks and more or less dared you to disagree with them. You going to stand for that? I didn’t think so.

Let’s poke around and see where they might be wrong, this time with a litt…

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Frankie Edgar vs. Gray MaynardWith UFC 136 just a day away, oddsmakers have made their picks and more or less dared you to disagree with them. You going to stand for that? I didn’t think so.

Let’s poke around and see where they might be wrong, this time with a little special help on the parlay from one of my MMA Fighting colleagues.

Frankie Edgar (-140) vs. Gray Maynard (+125)

At last, a title defense where Edgar is the favorite, however slight. The last time these two met, the champ was a +115 dog. I know, because I went back and looked at my own betting odds picks for UFC 125, which means I am now sufficiently humbled. Let’s just say I didn’t exactly knock that one out of the park, though I did pick Edgar when many thought he’d simply get held down for five rounds. Now that he’s proven not only his mutant healing abilities between rounds, but also his wrestling prowess, I’m not surprised that oddsmakers are giving him the slight edge.

Still, the line is so close that you aren’t going to profit all that much from taking the underdog flyer on Maynard. For those of you struggling to understand what +110 means, imagine yourself putting down $100 on Maynard and then making $110 if he wins. Also imagine yourself being very, very sad if he doesn’t. Then at least you’ll understand what you’re letting yourself in for if he can’t shove Edgar around for five rounds to become the new champ.
My pick: Edgar. He’s proven he can stay off his back against Maynard. If he can only stay out of the way of those power punches, he’ll be in business.


Jose Aldo (-450) vs. Kenny Florian (+300)

Florian is the kind of guy you want to root for, and by ‘you’ I mean me. He’s a diligent worker, a borderline obsessive student of the game, and a real thinking man’s fighter. One thing he’s not, at least so far, is championship material. Oddsmakers don’t seem to think that will change against Aldo, and I have to admit that I agree. Florian isn’t going to stand there and out-strike Aldo. Not without getting his legs turned to hamburger. He’ll have to put him down, but can he reliably do that, especially in the early rounds? I’m not so sure, at least not unless Aldo suffers through another brutal weight cut like the one he had before the Hominick fight. Florian’s best chance might come in the later rounds, but only if he can make it that long. Even then, he’ll probably be so behind on the scorecards that he’ll absolutely need to start finishing fights at 145 pounds. Easier said than done against the champ.
My pick: Aldo. Honestly, it’s not even worth a parlay pick at these odds, but neither is Florian worth the underdog risk.

Chael Sonnen (-260) vs. Brian Stann (+200)

If you know me, you know I have to have at least one big/somewhat reckless underdog pick per event. If I don’t, I go crazy and try to bait strangers at the gas station into giving me 3-1 odds on whether I can jump over a moving car (turns out I can’t; lesson learned). This time around, I had to take a hard look at Stann, who needs only to keep from getting out-wrestled in order to have a very good chance in this one. Normally, I wouldn’t like his chances to do even that, but Sonnen has been off for a very, very long time. Much of that time was spent trying to convince the California State Athletic Commission that he doesn’t mean what he says, except for when he does, and distractions like that are rarely helpful. Cage rust affects different fighters in different ways, but if I had to bet (and it’s kind of the purpose of this whole feature) I’d wager that Sonnen will be not quite as sharp as usual, and it’ll cost him.
My pick: Stann. I wouldn’t bet the house, or even the condo, but I will throw some small action on the real American hero this time around.

Joe Lauzon (+300) vs. Melvin Guillard (-450)

Back when he was an immature, though talented fighter who would beat himself more often than not when given a chance, Guillard was still a scary opponent. Now that he’s got his act together, dude is positively terrifying. Lauzon’s best chance is to get it to the mat and submit him, but the last time Guillard tapped out was in 2009, when he was foolish enough to shoot a takedown on Nate Diaz and get himself guillotined in the process. He’s a much smarter fighter than that now, so Lauzon better have a plan B. Matter of fact, he better have plans C-N, too, because I don’t see him shooting a double-leg and putting/keeping Guillard down long enough to submit him.
My pick: Guillard. Again, it’s not even juicy as a parlay addition, but what are you going to do?

Leonard Garcia (+175) vs. Nam Phan (-225)

Quick question: do we have different judges for the rematch? If so, then you have to give Phan the edge. If it’s the same people who think haymakers, whether they connect or not, are enough to win a fight, then take your chances with Garcia. Garcia’s problem isn’t just that he likes to brawl — it’s that he doesn’t like to do anything else, such as defend his face. He’s a great guy — one of the nicest and most down-to-earth in this business, really — and when he finds a willing dance partner, his style is fun to watch. It’s also predictable, and when opponents can keep from getting sucked into it he runs into problems.
My pick: Phan. This one might be more suitable as parlay material, but then you never know what those wacky judges will do.

Quick picks:

– Mike Massenzio (+125) over Steve Cantwell (-145). Massenzio will try to out-wrestle Cantwell, and Cantwell is susceptible to that. With these odds, Massenzio’s worth a small risk.

– Anthony Pettis (-285) over Jeremy Stephens (+225). You won’t get rich off of it, but this one is money in the bank.

The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay: Just because he’s a wild riverboat gambler with dollar signs in his eyes, and because I respect that sort of self-destructive impulse, I’ll let my colleague Matt Erickson call it this time. Take it away, Matt.

“A 4-leg parlay of ‘dogs on Saturday that pays $473 on a $10 bet:

Maynard +125
Stann +200
Santiago +225
Elkins +120

I’ve already spent my winnings. That’s how sure of that mofo I am.”

You heard the man. And if it doesn’t work out, you can let him know about it on Twitter: @MattErickson23

 

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UFC 136 Fight Card: 5 Fights That Will End in a Knockout

With UFC 136 right around the corner, UFC fans across the globe have begun counting down the hours for what has the potential to be one of the best fight cards of the entire year.UFC 136 will take place in Houston on October 8th in front of a sold-out …

With UFC 136 right around the corner, UFC fans across the globe have begun counting down the hours for what has the potential to be one of the best fight cards of the entire year.

UFC 136 will take place in Houston on October 8th in front of a sold-out Toyota Center.

The entire fight card consists of four main card fights and seven preliminary bouts.

The main card is headlined around lightweight champion Frankie Edgar, who will attempt to defend his title against No. 1 contender Gray Maynard.

Also putting his title up for grabs is Jose Aldo, who will take on Kenny Florian in a featherweight championship bout.

What makes this card even more exciting is the high possibility of knockouts that could take place throughout the evening.

The following slides discuss five fights that will end in a knockout at UFC 136.

Let’s take a look.

Begin Slideshow

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 136 Edition


(Stock-trader vs. Wall Street protester — who ya got? Photo via MMA Mania)

Want to make some real money this weekend? Then come over to my place on Saturday afternoon and be prepared to clean some toilets. Want to make some hypothetical, for-entertainment-purposes-only money this weekend? Then check out the latest UFC 136 betting lines (via BestFightOdds) and read our gambling advice after the jump.

PPV Main Card
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Gray Maynard (+120)
Jose Aldo (-320) vs. Kenny Florian (+301)
Chael Sonnen (-255) vs. Brian Stann (+227)
Nam Phan (-210) vs. Leonard Garcia (+208)
Melvin Guillard (-312) vs. Joe Lauzon (+310)

Spike TV Prelims
Demian Maia (-275) vs. Jorge Santiago (+245)
Anthony Pettis (-277) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+250)

Facebook Prelims
Joey Beltran (+190) vs. Stipe Miocic (-210)
Tiequan Zhang (-120) vs. Darren Elkins (+115)
Aaron Simpson (-313) vs. Eric Schafer (+300)
Steve Cantwell (-135) vs. Mike Massenzio (+130)

We’ll begin…at the beginning:


(Stock-trader vs. Wall Street protester — who ya got? Photo via MMA Mania)

Want to make some real money this weekend? Then come over to my place on Saturday afternoon and be prepared to clean some toilets. Want to make some hypothetical, for-entertainment-purposes-only money this weekend? Then check out the latest UFC 136 betting lines (via BestFightOdds) and read our gambling advice after the jump.

PPV Main Card
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Gray Maynard (+120)
Jose Aldo (-320) vs. Kenny Florian (+301)
Chael Sonnen (-255) vs. Brian Stann (+227)
Nam Phan (-210) vs. Leonard Garcia (+208)
Melvin Guillard (-312) vs. Joe Lauzon (+310)

Spike TV Prelims
Demian Maia (-275) vs. Jorge Santiago (+245)
Anthony Pettis (-277) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+250)

Facebook Prelims
Joey Beltran (+190) vs. Stipe Miocic (-210)
Tiequan Zhang (-120) vs. Darren Elkins (+115)
Aaron Simpson (-313) vs. Eric Schafer (+300)
Steve Cantwell (-135) vs. Mike Massenzio (+130)

We’ll begin…at the beginning:

The Main Event: It’s a line that should really be dead even. But if somebody’s going to be a favorite here, should it really be Frankie Edgar? After all, he couldn’t beat Gray Maynard in either of their two previous meetings. As a slight underdog, Maynard is worth a small investment.

The Other Good ‘Dogs: A lot of them look good, actually. Chael Sonnen is coming off 14 months of controversy and inactivity, so his -255 feels a little inflated, especially against someone as focused and dangerous as Brian Stann. We all know that Leonard Garcia is bulletproof with judges, so if he can swing and grunt his way to the last bell — and not get finished by Phan — he could always end up stealing another one and doubling your money. And if Demian Maia insists on pretending he’s a striker, he’s asking to get laid out by Jorge Santiago.

The Smart Straight-Bet: Blowouts are the name of the game this weekend, with eight of the 11 matchups sitting at 2-to-1 odds or greater. You won’t get rich betting on the stiff favorites, so take a look at Tiequan Zhang at a modest -120 over Darren Elkins. Both guys are just 1-0 at featherweight, but Zhang’s aggressive grappling attack will give the American a heap of problems.

Stay Away From: Joe Lauzon. Yeah, yeah, everybody loves J-Lau, and his skill set is the perfect one to give Guillard trouble. At +310, why not put money on the grappler’s chance, right? Answer: Because Melvin is far too powerful, and he’s a little savvier about avoiding submissions these days. Guillard’s got this one, probably by KO. The same warning applies for Kenny Florian — tripling your cash on the seasoned challenger might be seductive, but you’ll likely be pissing that money away.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Aldo + Guillard + Pettis + Zhang. $20 returns a $57.18 profit. Not risky enough? Okay, $1,000 returns a $2,858 profit. Now we’re talkin’.