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UFC on Fox 3 – Betting Recap

See previous Articles MMA Betting Strategies I and II for reference……. After 1 night of posted picks here on MMA Fix, the Crisper wound up 2-1, with wins on Nate Diaz (+175 when locked in,.

See previous Articles MMA Betting Strategies I and II for reference…….

After 1 night of posted picks here on MMA Fix, the Crisper wound up 2-1, with wins on Nate Diaz (+175 when locked in, closed at +155) and Alan Belcher (+220 when locked in, closed at +160). My posted loser was Josh Koschek (-125 when locked in, closed at +140, thought we might get a split decision on this closely contested battle). Because money management has taught me over the years to play “to win 1 unit” on favorites and “to risk ½ unit” on dogs, I wound up + .725 units, for another night of profits!!

The Crisper was a little nervous to post both of his favorite picks, as he didn’t want to have a losing night for all MMA Fixers out there on the first night of posted picks (especially since Dodson was -500). From now on all FAVORITE FAVORITES and at least 1 Dog will be posted each night of fights….all for FREE of course!

Getting back to the action on Saturday, impressive performances were turned in by 3 fighters in particular.

Alan Belcher – how did he keep slipping out of all those leg locks??? Seriously it must be scary when a little Tasmanian Devil lookin’ Jiu Jitsu black belt grabs your foot, then turns on it so you can’t see what’s going on under there….eeesh! Belcher is for real…wondering who he will be paired up with next?

Lavar “Big” Johnson – This is one “Big”, Bad Dude. I counted 38 full out roundhouses to the head of Pat Barry before he finally fell…not bad for a “Big” man. His conditioning is excellent for a heavyweight…and he is definitely “BIG”. One has to wonder if his nickname has any dual meaning?

Nate Diaz – pure domination of a very good opponent. Used his reach and began taunting Miller before literally picking him apart with precision striking. Title fight here he comes.

Closing Note – For all of us MMA junkies out there, how great was it to not have to cough up $60 bucks for this great night of action? By the way, why do they even offer the non-HD version of these fights for $49.95? I mean seriously…NON-HD? What’s the point?

Check back this weekend for the Crisper’s picks for Tuesday’s UFC on Fuel card.

Boom

MMA Betting Strategies Part II- Always Go With At Least 1 “Dog of the Night”

No matter how much you read up on all of these fighters, or how sure you are that one guy is that much better than his opponent, there is virtually always one or more big.

No matter how much you read up on all of these fighters, or how sure you are that one guy is that much better than his opponent, there is virtually always one or more big upset on each fight card. MMA betting is a fickle game. In my opinion, there is no other sport in the world where you can find as much value as you can in MMA lines. Sure, there’s the well known and hyped, huge favorites (-400 or higher) that are pretty sure things.

However, there are also a few fights each night where a heavy favorite is basically unproven, or facing a tough style matchup. How some of these fighters warrant laying 3 to 1 odds when they haven’t beaten any worthy opponents, or if we know nothing about their opponent that night, who could be a VERY dangerous fighter, is beyond me. That is where my strategy of picking one of these “Dog” fights on each card has padded my bankroll over the years.

On a given night of say 10 fights, I like to do my due diligence on each fighter individually, then see how they match up with their opponent. I will then usually pick my three FAVORITE FAVORITES. In other words, the three favorites I like the most I lock in, hoping to go 3-0, 2-1 at worst. Then, during the course of my research I will find value in 2 or 3 Dogs. From there I will narrow it down to the best “Dog of the Night”, and put 1/2 a unit on it, so as to not blow the entire nights winnings. Because the odds on these Dogs are usually +150 or better (sometimes as high as +350), we can see huge profits from these Dog wagers.

Let’s take UFC on Fox Saturday night. Of the big Dogs, my pick to pull off the upset is Alan Belcher (16-5). Belcher is 6’2″, vs. the 5’8″ submission specialist Rousimar Palhares (23-3). Belcher has the experience to understand that if this fight goes to the ground, he will be tapping faster than Spider in Goodfellas when Tommy shoots him in the foot.

The key to this fight for Belcher will be to stay on his feet and use his 4 inch reach advantage to keep Palhares away from him, while scoring points and winning each round. Belcher’s conditioning is superior, and if he can get the fight into the 3rd when both fighters will be lathered up and “slippery when wet,” the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu specialist will be less dangerous with his leg lock attempts. Belcher may be able to finish him in the 3rd, but if I were in his corner I would advise him to keep his distance and go for the 29-28 decision, and pad our bankrolls at +220.

-The Cookie Crisper

Josh Koscheck vs Johny Hendricks Prediction

The Co Main event features Josh Koscheck vs Johny Hendricks. Koscheck is at the stage of his career where he is near the bottom of the todom poll when it comes to title shots after.

The Co Main event features Josh Koscheck vs Johny Hendricks. Koscheck is at the stage of his career where he is near the bottom of the todom poll when it comes to title shots after having been outclassed by the current champion GSP twice. He is coming off rather unimpressive wins over Matt Hughes and Mike Pierce and seems to be only fighting for a paycheck. Jonny Hendricks is coming of a huge first round knock out win over former number 2 ranked welter weight fighter Jon Fitch. Despite being a major underdog Hendricks was able to pull off a 12 second KO and launch himself a large new fan base and into potential contender status. Hendricks is a Division 1 wrestling champion so his wrestling may neutralize Koschecks take downs. Koscheck seems to only have an overhand right along side a questionable chin where as Hendricks has ko power in both hands and slightly more technical striking. Prediction Hendricks 1st round KO.

-Andrew Smiley

Miller Handles Diaz on May 5th

On Saturday May 5th Nate Diaz will battle Jim Miller for a potential number one contender title fight. Both fighters are coming off impressive wins as Nate Diaz was able to out class and hault.

On Saturday May 5th Nate Diaz will battle Jim Miller for a potential number one contender title fight. Both fighters are coming off impressive wins as Nate Diaz was able to out class and hault the hype train that Donald “The Cowboy” Ceronne was ridding by dominating his way to a unanimous decision win back in December. Jim Miller is currently 10-2 in the UFC with his only losses being form of decisions to the current champion Benson “Smooth” Henderson and former title challenger Gray Maynard. Miller is coming off a first round submission win against the always explosive Melvin Guillard. Nate Diaz has drastically improved his boxing to an elite level but has always lacked in the wrestling department. While he is a Caesar Gracie Black belt he will have a very tough time trying to pull off a submission off of his back against a former collegiate wrestler and a Jamie Cruz BJJ Blackbelt in Jim Miller. Nate Diaz is very tough and crafty but he will most likely be neutralized by the superior wrestling and strength of Jim Miller. Prediction Jim Miller via unanimous decision!

-Andrew Smiley

MMA BETTING STRATEGIES…….PART I

Click here to view the embedded video.

Ok, so I am an MMA betting junkie. I love the instant gratification of winning money in just a few seconds, as it occurs routinely during the furious exchange between two equally weighted, haymaker throwing men, both trained for a single purpose: to seek and destroy. It happens so fast, in some cases, that I can’t even keep up with the fights on my online sportsbook. By the time one fight finishes, the next fight is off the board.

I am always looking for an advantage in one or two fights per night, as I feel that several of the odds are miscalculated because of misguided public perception. But, if you are diligent with your research and disciplined with your approach, you can consistently find a fight or two on each card that are fairly easy to handicap.

Take the upcoming UFC on Fox which takes place May 5th

UFC ON FOX 3- LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT Barry vs. Johnson (5/5/12)

Matchup Odds

Jim Miller -210

Nate Diaz +175

UFC ON FOX 3- LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT Koscheck vs. Hendricks (5/5/12)

Matchup Odds

Josh Koscheck -125

Johny Hendricks -105

It appears to me that of the fights with early odds, Nate Diaz has the best chance to pull the upset. Lavar “Big” Johnson has been impressive, but his inexperience should prove to be too much to overcome vs. the explosive Pat Barry. Diaz, on the other hand, is seasoned enough to pull out a “W”, and his camp will have him ready. Beware Jim Miller….

Also, I see a lot of value in Josh Koscheck only laying -125. He is the better athlete, and has faced tougher competition throughout his career. Koscheck could get caught, as his opponent is dangerous, but I see him winning here 2 rounds to 1 for a unanimous decision. Add money to the bankroll by playing Koscheck on May 5th. Check back next week for a breakdown and best bets of the other fights on the UFC on Fox 3.

Clay Guida is the +190 Underdog to Ben Henderson

If there’s ever a night we may see hair pulling in the UFC, it will be Saturday night’s Clay Guida vs. Ben Henderson bout for UFC on Fox 1. It is Clay Guida who is in the.

If there’s ever a night we may see hair pulling in the UFC, it will be Saturday night’s Clay Guida vs. Ben Henderson bout for UFC on Fox 1. It is Clay Guida who is in the online sportsbooks as a (+190) underdog to Ben Henderson who comes in as a (-240) favorite. What is the reasoning for the sportsbooks to have this big a line gap between the two? It’s a little confusing, considering the match-up is fairly even. Although, Ben Henderson has won his first two fights in the UFC, they have gone to decision, whereas up until the Anthony Pettis fight, Guida had been on a 3 wins-by-submission streak. He also kept Pettis on his back for most of the night leading to his decision win. Pettis is Ben Henderson’s only loss in almost four years.

Guida is a good value to lay your cash down. And even though, it’s likely we won’t really get to see either opponent’s face, (I sure hope their hair doesn’t get tangled in one another) it is going to be a great fight. Too bad, many of us will have to watch it on our notebook computers. Log into UFC on Facebook or Fox.com to see Guida vs. Henderson.

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