This weekend is a mixed martial arts fans’ dream, with three major promotions holding world class fight cards available for fans to view free of charge. Three shows and 27 fights to watch this weekend.UFC on Fox 3 is on Saturday night an…
This weekend is a mixed martial arts fans’ dream, with three major promotions holding world class fight cards available for fans to view free of charge. Three shows and 27 fights to watch this weekend.
UFC on Fox 3 is on Saturday night and will feature 12 fights and they will all be available via Facebook or free television on Fox TV or Rogers Sportsnet in Canada.
Bellator 67 will take place on Friday night and will hold nine fights and is available on Spike TV or MTV2.
Canada’s longest standing promotion Maximum Fighting Championships will present MFC 33: Collision Course and have 6 fights available on HDNet Fights.
Too many fights to choose from? You can’t possibly surf and catch them all so let’s throw all the fights in a mixer and mix a cocktail card of the best six of the 27.
Here are Six Must See Fights to choose this weekend.
How do you predict Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller at UFC on FOX 3?In the lead-up to the third UFC fight card on FOX, there has been an interesting shift in fight predictions for the main event. While Nate Diaz has looked nothing short of unstoppable in wins …
In the lead-up to the third UFC fight card on FOX, there has been an interesting shift in fight predictions for the main event. While Nate Diaz has looked nothing short of unstoppable in wins over Takanori Gomi and Donald Cerrone, many MMA pundits think that Jim Miller will most likely walk away with a tidy decision win. Indeed, the recipe for Diaz’s defeat looks very similar to his matchups against Clay Guida, Gray Maynard, Rory MacDonald and Kim Dong-Hyun—elite ground specialists who can take a punch as well as they dish them out.
But while there’s no way to test-run the headliners against each other ahead of the actual event, there is one valuable fight prediction tool that hasn’t been utilized since UFC 144 in Japan: UFC Undisputed 3. Considered as the “Madden” of mixed martial arts games, the THQ and Yuke’s product has been used several times to simulate popular fights and predict winners based on large data sets. For the most part, it’s been a successful tool, correctly picking the victors in 6-out-of-8 UFC events.
With no UFC Undisputed 3 fight prediction for Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans (or any other UFC fights since then), I took the time to simulate the upcoming fight between Nate Diaz and Jim Miller in a similar fashion to the methods used by the game’s developers and producers for past UFC events:
Each match set between two CPU-controlled fighters
Simulated 25 total fights
Each fight set at five rounds
CPU difficulty set to “Ultimate”
Game rules set to “Competition”
Energy settings set to “Simulation”
And after running the data over two days, UFC Undisputed 3 predicted that Jim Miller defeats Nate Diaz, albeit by the most razor-thin margins possible.
Not only did the majority of the 25 five-round fights go to a decision, but the judges’ scorecards often read 48-47 across the board. In total, the simulations gave Jim Miller 13 wins out of 25, with Nate Diaz picking up the other 12 victories. In fact, the last simulated fight proved to be a tie-breaker, as both fighters were dead even after 24 simulated bouts.
Here’s a look at the data from the fight simulations, with the full tables visible here and here:
Diaz threw/landed more strikes than Miller on average (punches, elbows, kicks, knees)
Diaz was only knocked down 3 times in 25 fights
Notable Trends:
Neither fighter won or lost by Submission
Miller and Diaz threw a combined average of 255.1 strikes per fight
24 out of 25 fights made it to the fifth round
Both fighters are rated very closely in UFC Undisputed 3, but a clear edge seems to go to Miller’s takedowns and Diaz’s simulated inability to stop them.
The Bottom Line:
Unlike Donald Cerrone, Jim Miller doesn’t seem like the type to abandon the type of gameplan that will serve him best, no matter how many middle fingers the younger Diaz brother dishes out in-between rounds. Although it’s unlikely that Nate Diaz can be stopped on strikes, the most likely situation—as most have guessed—is that Miller will outwork Diaz just enough to win on the judges’ scorecards. As the UFC Undisputed 3 data suggests, a decision is guaranteed either way, but a win for Miller will only come on the razor’s edge.
[McKinley Noble is an MMA conspiracy theorist and former writer for GamePro, PC World, and Macworld. Follow his Twitter account for crazy talk, 1990s movie references, and general weirdness. Or you could just stalk him on Google.]
Yesterday, the UFC and FOX held an open media conference call, which featured UFC President Dana White, middleweight contender and FOX analyst Brian Stann, and Fox Sports Media Group Co-President Eric Shanks taking questions prior to this weekend’s UFC on FOX event. Among the questions to come up was one regarding the likelihood of the Nate Diaz/Jim Miller winner receiving the next title shot at 155 pounds. True to form, Dana White did not beat around the bush, declaring that to be true for at least half of the participants involved:
Should Diaz win, Diaz is definitely getting a title shot. Should Miller win, Miller’s probably going to be a fight or two away.
White when on to state that the same applied for Johny Hendricks should he get past Josh Koscheck on Saturday, whereas our boy Fraggle would have to get a couple more wins under his belt. Considering that both Koscheck and Miller recently suffered losses to the current champions of their respective weight classes (twice over if your Koscheck), this seems to make sense.
Yesterday, the UFC and FOX held an open media conference call, which featured UFC President Dana White, middleweight contender and FOX analyst Brian Stann, and Fox Sports Media Group Co-President Eric Shanks taking questions prior to this weekend’s UFC on FOX event. Among the questions to come up was one regarding the likelihood of the Nate Diaz/Jim Miller winner receiving the next title shot at 155 pounds. True to form, Dana White did not beat around the bush, declaring that to be true for at least half of the participants involved:
Should Diaz win, Diaz is definitely getting a title shot. Should Miller win, Miller’s probably going to be a fight or two away.
White when on to state that the same applied for Johny Hendricks should he get past Josh Koscheck on Saturday, whereas our boy Fraggle would have to get a couple more wins under his belt. Considering that both Koscheck and Miller recently suffered losses to the current champions of their respective weight classes (twice over if your Koscheck), this seems to make sense.
Diaz is only 2-0 since returning to lightweight, but his victory over Donald Cerrone at UFC 141 was so utterly dominant that it set a record for strikes landed in a three round fight. A win over Miller would provide all we need to know about Nate’s future at 155 *cough* can he defend a takedown? *cough*. Miller recently bounced back from a unanimous decision loss to current champ Ben Henderson by submitting Melvin Guillard in January, but we all know that he needs at least eight victories in a row to earn a title shot, so it’s gonna be a while.
Speaking of win streaks, if Hendricks is able to best Koscheck, it would be his fourth victory in a row and eighth out of the nine fights he has had while under the UFC banner, so a title shot seems justified at this point. Koscheck, on the other hand, has scored two straight against Matt Hughes and Mike Pierce, but his aforementioned pair of losses to Georges St. Pierre doesn’t really give him anywhere to go at the moment. Then again, who knows who will be the champ after GSP/Condit goes down, whenever the hell that may be.
You can listen to the conference call in its entirety here.
So what do you think, Potato Nation? Does Diaz deserve a shot? And if so, how do you think he’d fare against Henderson, or Frankie Edgar for that matter?
Make sure to swing by CagePotato this Saturday, as we’ll be liveblogging all the action starting at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. WT.
(Is there anyway we could get the guy on the far right to…what’s the word I’m looking for….leave?)
Since the UFC has made its conversion to a major network, they’ve had their fair share of ups and downs. Their first event, though featuring a match that could headline any pay-per-view, was little more than an hour long infomercial for the sport, topped off by the shortest title fight this side of Andrei Arlovski’s flash knockout of Paul Buentello back at UFC 55. Their second event was forced to shuffle around its main card participants as a result of Mark Munoz’s grisly injury, resulting in two mediocre bouts and a tepid main event. And don’t even get us started on Jon Jones’ commentary.
However, not all is lost (unless we’re talking about last week’s TUF ratings. Bazinga!), for this Saturday’s card promises to deliver the kind of head-to-toe action that mainstream and hardcore audiences alike have been waiting for. It’s got a Diaz, a Miller, a cartoon character, and a mythical swamp beast on its main card alone, so what could possibly go wrong? But just in case the Zuffa brass are looking for a few extra pointers from a fan’s perspective, we’ve compiled the following list of five things that would surely elevate UFC on FOX 3 above that of its predecessors. Enjoy, and let us know what other improvements could be made to the UFC on FOX in the comments section.
5. Tito Ortiz Return to his Role as a Ringside Commentator
FOX is a network that prides itself on being the voice of the simple, common man. And there is perhaps no man simpler than that of Tito Ortiz. Let’s be real here; Ortiz’s night of commentary at Affliction: Day of Reckoning was easily the funniest Goddamn moment in the history of MMA, bar none. Brian Fantana could not muster one-tenth of its hilarity if he were to report on every Panda birth from here to Chongqing, and we should give “The People’s Champ” another go-around for comedic purposes only. Besides, when was the last time ringside commentary really blew your mind? We love Joe Rogan and all, but we’d be much more inclined to stick around after the fight if there was a possibility that the announcer in question would suffer an aneurysm whilst trying to determine his next word.
(Is there anyway we could get the guy on the far right to…what’s the word I’m looking for…leave?)
Since the UFC has made its conversion to a major network, they’ve had their fair share of ups and downs. Their first event, though featuring a match that could headline any pay-per-view, was little more than an hour long infomercial for the sport, topped off by the shortest title fight this side of Andrei Arlovski’s flash knockout of Paul Buentello back at UFC 55. Their second event was forced to shuffle around its main card participants as a result of Mark Munoz’s grisly injury, resulting in two mediocre bouts and a tepid main event. And don’t even get us started on Jon Jones’ commentary.
However, not all is lost (unless we’re talking about last week’s TUF ratings. Bazinga!), for this Saturday’s card promises to deliver the kind of head-to-toe action that mainstream and hardcore audiences alike have been waiting for. It’s got a Diaz, a Miller, a cartoon character, and a mythical swamp beast on its main card alone, so what could possibly go wrong? But just in case the Zuffa brass are looking for a few extra pointers from a fan’s perspective, we’ve compiled the following list of five things that would surely elevate UFC on FOX 3 above that of its predecessors. Enjoy, and let us know what other improvements could be made to the UFC on FOX in the comments section.
5. Tito Ortiz Return to his Role as a Ringside Commentator
FOX is a network that prides itself on being the voice of the simple, common man. And there is perhaps no man simpler than that of Tito Ortiz. Let’s be real here; Ortiz’s night of commentary at Affliction: Day of Reckoning was easily the funniest Goddamn moment in the history of MMA, bar none. Brian Fantana could not muster one-tenth of its hilarity if he were to report on every Panda birth from here to Chongqing, and we should give “The People’s Champ” another go-around for comedic purposes only. Besides, when was the last time ringside commentary really blew your mind? We love Joe Rogan and all, but we’d be much more inclined to stick around after the fight if there was a possibility that the announcer in question would suffer an aneurysm whilst trying to determine his next word.
4. Alan Belcher Walk Out of the Octagon Unassisted
We know this one’s a long shot, but suffice it to say, we’d rather not have a fight on a major television network end with a man screaming in pain like dying rabbit as a result of his opponent’s incompetency, his own stubbornness, or a combination of the two. Though it may seem like the bookies have already written him off, we actually have a little more faith in “The Talent” than we originally let off. The guy’s a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu blackbelt with great hands to boot, so perhaps he’ll be able to stifle the limb mangling power of Rousimar Palhares. We’re just praying that we don’t have to see someone’s appendage torn from the rest of their body on live television (that’s right, I brought it back).
3. This. (Props to RubberDucky for reminding us of how glorious a gif this truly is.)
The middle finger is basically the last bastion of American freedom, which would make the Diaz brothers its flag waving supporters. No network/fight promotion team supports the basic freedoms of Americans more than FOX and the UFC. The right to bear arms, the right to free speech, equal rights for women; the UFC and FOX have rallied behind the best of them, so why not support perhaps the most American gesture in the country’s history? Being a New Yorker, I am perhaps more versed in the art of the bird than most, and I can honestly tell you that when I am flipped off by some bitch and/or bastard in the car behind me for brake-checking his/her tailgating ass, I am filled with a sense of patriotism that is truly indescribable. If UFC fighters didn’t live in fear that their love for this country could cost them their jobs, we guarantee that this beautiful gesture would become a highlight of fight nights from this day forth. There aren’t many similarities between your average fighter and your average couch potato, but this could be one area where we could all share a common connection, if only for a couple of seconds at a time.
Pat Barry is a man of many faces. On one hand, he’s a guy who will decapitate you with a high kick in the blink of an eye. On the other, he’s a karaoke-singing goofball with a penchant for releasing funny videos on them Interwebs. In his last octagon appearance, Barry followed up a first round starching of Christian Morecraft with a tribute to “planking,” despite the fact that planking had already been long forgotten about and replaced by owling. So if Barry is looking to get real old school (re: 2007) with his Internet trendology, he should unleash his dead-on Techno Viking impression, as seen above. either during his entrance or immediately after KO’ing Lavar Johnson (granted he is able to). It would go viral faster than Diego Sanchez’s exorcism routine and be ten times as awesome to witness. If you’re still our friend, Pat, please make this happen. We are still buddies, right?
What’s the simple answer to the question of which fight is most important Saturday night? The main event, obviously. That’s why it’s the main event.But it’s not always that simple with UFC cards, especially when it comes to thei…
What’s the simple answer to the question of which fight is most important Saturday night? The main event, obviously. That’s why it’s the main event.
But it’s not always that simple with UFC cards, especially when it comes to their UFC on Fox outings.
The first one obviously was all about the main event: Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos, in a real life clash of the titans. And while that fight is viewed today as something of a letdown, I take some comfort in the fact that unlike the film “Clash of the Titans”, Velazquez vs. dos Santos only took 64 seconds to disappoint you on every level, while not featuring Sam Worthington in any way. So there’s that.
Then there was UFC on Fox 2, headlined by Rashad Evans in his millionth or so No. 1 contender’s bout against Phil Davis. Now I don’t know about you, but to just about everyone at the bar I was watching at, the real main event was the Chael Sonnen vs. Mike Bisping co-main event.
Sure, both fights were slower, mostly wrestling-based affairs with little drama—yet the only complaint we leveled against Sonnen was that he didn’t insult nearly enough ethnic minorities in his post-fight interview.
Now we have UFC on Fox 3 (yep, I can still count) headlined by Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller. Again, it would seem that the main event is the biggest fight of the night—but I’m not so sure. This is the deepest card yet for a UFC on Fox event, stacked with interesting and relevant fights.
Which one is the most important—let’s find out, shall we?
And just to help you out (and because I’m feeling crazy), I’ve already numbered them in order of importance.
4. Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks
Is it just me, or do the fellows at AKA have a weird thing with avenging each other’s losses?
When Paulo Thiago knocked Koscheck out cold, the next guy he faced was Jon Fitch. Then he faced Mike Swick a few months later. For a long time, it seemed the entire AKA camp was calling out Matt Hughes—before Kos fought him. When Fitch was himself knocked silly by Johny Hendricks, Koscheck was eager to step up as his next opponent.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t make this fight all that important. Sure, Hendricks is one of the biggest rising stars in the welterweight division, while Kos is one of the biggest names at 170. But what would a win do for either man in this situation? Neither guy is getting a title shot until Condit/GSP happens (and it’s debatable if Kos will even get another shot), so they’re more or less spinning their wheels here.
Look at the list of who either man would face with a win, and who they would face with a loss. When they’re more or less the same list, you know it’s not the most important fight in the world.
3. Pat Berry vs. Lavar Johnson
Somehow, Pat Berry has managed to manoeuvre himself into an extremely enviable position in the UFC.
Why do I say that? Because despite being nowhere near the title picture, despite being only .500 in his UFC career and only 7-4 as a professional, despite obvious and glaring holes in his game, and despite some ridiculously high profile losses—Pat Berry is still, against all odds, “the man.”
He’s a guy the UFC pushes and that fans respond to, yet absolutely nothing is expected of him beyond an entertaining fight. He could do nothing but “fun” fights, and he’s still be one of the most well-liked guys in the heavyweight division.
Lucky guy.
In the night’s opening bout, Barry faces former WEC and Strikeforce veteran Lavar Johnson. Call me cynical, but the only Lavar I’ve ever cared about was the one who kept the engines of the Enterprise running while wearing a headband on his face and teaching children about the joys of reading in his spare time.
Fun fight, but not all that important to anyone not named Barry or Johnson.
2. Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller
OH SNAP! C’mon, you didn’t really think I would go to the trouble of making this list and then NOT swerve the main event out of the No. 1 spot, did you?
Now don’t get me wrong: Diaz vs. Miller is a very important fight, one that will determine the next challenger to the Frankie Edgar world title. Excuse me, I meant the lightweight world title. So obviously, there’s plenty on the line for either guy in this fight. And that’s to say nothing of the almost guaranteed fireworks this fight promises to be.
So it’s important, no doubt.
Still, it doesn’t snag that top spot because promised title shots in the lightweight division are almost worthless at this point. Just ask Anthony Pettis about the value of a “guaranteed” title shot at 155 when we’re only ever a draw or close decision away from seeing Frankie Edgar bounce back from adversity stronger than ever!
No, I’m afraid the top honours in this irrelevant, entirely arbitrary ranking must go to:
1. Rousimar Palhares vs. Alan Belcher
Now why in God’s name, you ask, is this fight featuring two middle-of-the-pack middleweights (there’s a tongue-twister for you) more important than a #1 contender’s fight in a deeper division?
Well there’s your answer right there: Middleweight is shallow. I’ve used this analogy before, but basically I see the entire middleweight division as the Justice League.
There’s Superman, all-powerful, all-mighty, pretty much invincible—and a bunch of other folks who do only some of what he does and nowhere near as well. One wonders why someone like Green Arrow even bothers strapping on his bow and arrow when Superman can crush coal into diamonds, take a nuke to the face without blinking, fly through the heart of the sun and come back before he’s managed to pull his green tights past his ass?
Yes, I’m talking about Anderson Silva, who’s made middleweight seem extremely uninteresting by how totally and completely he’s outclassed the entire division.
Sure, there’s Chael Sonnen (the Lex Luthor to Silva’s bald, pink t-shirt wearing, disco-dancing Clark Kent) but aside from that: Who else do you see challenging for the middleweight title? It’s not a long list, and pretty much no one on it will convince Joe E. Casual Fan to plunk down his $49.99.
So this fight matters because of the chance—however remote—that one of these guys establishes himself as a star outside Andy’s shadow. It’s not that far-fetched when you think about it. Neither guy has ever faced Anderson before, so no footage exists of his soul being devoured by a slender looking Brazilian man with an effeminate voice.
And both men are already carving out niches of their own with MMA fans. Palhares is quickly making a name for himself with his ripped physique, and propensity for alternating incredible submissions with absolutely mind-numbingly stupid decisions in the cage. And most fans already know Belcher as the owner of MMA’s worst tattoo, so…that’s something, I guess.
Here’s hoping one of these guys (ah hell, I hope it’s Palhares—simply because he’s the closest thing I’ve ever seen to a real-life video game character outside of Anderson himself) breaks through on Saturday night and gives fans something new to care about at middleweight.
The lightweight main event this Saturday will possibly have title implications, according to UFC president Dana White.This is similar to the situation in January, where Rashad Evans’ win over Phil Davis earned him a title shot at light heavyweigh…
The lightweight main event this Saturday will possibly have title implications, according to UFC president Dana White.
This is similar to the situation in January, where Rashad Evans’ win over Phil Davis earned him a title shot at light heavyweight Jon Jones, despite the fact that a win by Davis that night wouldn’t have resulted in the same reward.
According to Dana White, “If Diaz wins, he gets a title shot; if Miller wins, he is probably still a fight or two away.”
This is great news for the younger brother of the infamous Nick Diaz. It also ends speculation about who’s next in the long line of lightweight contenders to face the winner of the rematch between champion Benson Henderson and Frankie Edgar.
Diaz has had a rocky career in terms of wins and losses, but in the last several months, he seems to be in the zone. After submitting the veteran Takanori Gomi with an armbar, he picked apart a great striker in Donald Cerrone, who, at the time, was also in the running for a lightweight contention.
Nate’s style of fighting is very similar to his older brother’s style. They both attempt to overwhelm their opponents with a barrage of punches at a constant pace that is difficult for many to maintain. Also, they almost never move backwards, and they usually welcome takedowns from their opponents, since their skill level in jiu-jitsu ranks high in comparison with anyone in the promotion, regardless of weight class.
It will be interesting to see how the wrestler Jim Miller approaches such a skilled submission fighter on the ground.
How do you predict 
