(Ricardo Lamas helps Erik Koch re-enact the fire-extinguisher scene from Irreversible, which I will not be linking to, because it’s way too early in the morning, and it’s freaking horrible. / Photo via Getty Images)
We’d forgive you for getting Dustin Poirier and Erik Koch confused. Both are 24-year-old 5’9″ white guys with shaved heads, interestingtattoos, and nearlyidentical MMA records. Both were considered future title threats in the UFC featherweight division until recent losses set them back. The only real differences between the two men are Poirier’s three-inch reach advantage and Koch’s three-shade tan advantage. And logically, they’ll be meeting each other at UFC 164 (August 31st, Milwaukee) in the greatest “this guy looks like that guy” matchup since Miller vs. Healy.
(Ricardo Lamas helps Erik Koch re-enact the fire-extinguisher scene from Irreversible, which I will not be linking to, because it’s way too early in the morning, and it’s freaking horrible. / Photo via Getty Images)
We’d forgive you for getting Dustin Poirier and Erik Koch confused. Both are 24-year-old 5’9″ white guys with shaved heads, interestingtattoos, and nearlyidentical MMA records. Both were considered future title threats in the UFC featherweight division until recent losses set them back. The only real differences between the two men are Poirier’s three-inch reach advantage and Koch’s three-shade tan advantage. And logically, they’ll be meeting each other at UFC 164 (August 31st, Milwaukee) in the greatest “this guy looks like that guy” matchup since Miller vs. Healy.
Aside from a genuine, non-ironic “talk to the hand” that I had no idea people still said, that was all that Vitor Belfort had to say to reporters during the post-fight press conference last night about the elephant in the room. And frankly, I’m not going to add much else about it, either. You couldn’t talk to many fans – or even the fighters involved – about this fight without engaging in a lengthy discussion about drug usage. Naturally, Belfort winning the fight only intensified these discussions, as though there should be an asterisk next to the W on his record.
I won’t write that Belfort’s chemical wizardry is completely meaningless in a fight; if it was, he wouldn’t bother with it. But attributing the absolutely brilliant spinning kick that ended this fight – and made a strong case for Knockout of the Year for this year’s Potato Awards – to a loaded syringe is just as laughably misinformed. Belfort was Rockhold’s first true test, and The Phenom simply proved to be too much for him.
Photo courtesy of Getty Images.
“Can somebody beat him up for me, please?”
Aside from a genuine, non-ironic “talk to the hand” that I had no idea people still said, that was all that Vitor Belfort had to say to reporters during the post-fight press conference last night about the elephant in the room. And frankly, I’m not going to add much else about it, either. You couldn’t talk to many fans – or even the fighters involved – about this fight without engaging in a lengthy discussion about drug usage. Naturally, Belfort winning the fight only intensified these discussions, as though there should be an asterisk next to the W on his record.
I won’t write that Belfort’s chemical wizardry is completely meaningless in a fight; if it was, he wouldn’t bother with it. But attributing the absolutely brilliant spinning kick that ended this fight – and made a strong case for Knockout of the Year for this year’s Potato Awards – to a loaded syringe is just as laughably misinformed. Belfort was Rockhold’s first true test, and The Phenom simply proved to be too much for him.
Still, I wouldn’t be as optimistic about the idea of Belfort taking on the winner of Silva vs. Weidman as some people are being. Does Belfort deserve to fight the winner? Absolutely. But there’s a reason the UFC danced around the issue during the post-fight press conference, and yes, that reason is related to the same elephant in the room that overshadowed this fight. I’ll put it this way: If Silva wins, hosting a rematch against Belfort in Brazil makes sense. If Weidman wins? Not so much, and hosting Weidman vs. Belfort in the United States is playing with fire, as far as NSAC Executive Director Keith Kizer is concerned.
Elsewhere on the card…
– The co-main event pitted former Strikeforce champion Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza against last-minute replacement Chris Camozzi. Most of us dismissed this fight as little more than a bump in the road for Jacare, and most of us were correct in doing so.
Okay, that might be a little too harsh. Camozzi deserves a ton of credit for even accepting this fight on short notice, let alone for putting up the fight that he did. But Jacare is just that much better than Camozzi, and without much time to prepare, Camozzi was little more than a slightly-resistant grappling dummy. It’s a thrill to watch Jacare’s ground game, and hopefully we’ll get to see him test it against the deep end of the division soon.
– Here goes nothing: Did I think Dunham won? Yes. But did he get “ROBBED!!!!” in an unforgivably biased decision? No. This fight wasn’t under Stockton Rules – the blood on the face of dos Anjos shouldn’t affect your opinion on who won the fight. I personally think dos Anjos won round one, Dunham won round two, and the third round – although I gave it to Dunham – could have gone either way. It wasn’t a robbery, it was a very close fight that arguably deserved Fight of the Night honors. There’s a big difference between the two.
– Rafael Natal defeated Joao Zeferino. Zerefino was completely spent by the second round, and Natal couldn’t have given less of a fuck while in the cage with him. Not in the fun “I’m going to throw a bunch of spinning stuff because whatever you can’t stop me” way, but in the “Mir vs. Cro Cop: someone has to win, I guess” way. Move along people, there’s nothing to see here.
– I’m willing to bet that you didn’t watch the Fight of the Night winning scrap between Lucas Martins and Jeremy Larsen that kicked off the Facebook preliminaries. That’s a shame, because you missed a great fight. This wasn’t a technical masterpiece by any stretch of the imagination, it was a downright brawl that saw Larsen control the first two rounds before walking into a devastating punch from Martins just thirteen seconds into the final round. It sucks to lose like that, but the $50,000 both fighters took home probably numbs the pain a bit.
– Submission of the Night went to Jacare, and Knockout of the Night went to Belfort. All bonuses were worth $50,000.
Full Results:
Main Card:
Vitor Belfort def. Luke Rockhold via KO (spinning heel kick and punches), 2:32 of Round One
Ronaldo Souza def. Chris Camozzi via technical submission (arm triangle choke), 3:37 of Round One
Rafael dos Anjos def. Evan Dunham via Unanimous Decision
Rafael Natal def. Joao Zeferino via Unanimous Decision
Preliminary card:
Nik Lentz def. Hacran Dias via Unanimous Decision
Francisco Trinaldo def. Mike Rio via submission (arm triangle choke), 3:08 of Round One
Gleison Tibau def. John Cholish via submission (guillotine choke), 2:34 of Round Two
Paulo Thiago def. Michel Prazeres via Unanimous Decision
Yuri Alcantara def. Iliarde Santos via TKO (punches), 2:31 of Round One
Fabio Maldonado def. Roger Hollett Unanimous Decision
John Lineker def. Azamat Gashimov via TKO (punches), 1:07 of Round Two
Jussier Formiga def. Chris Cariaso via Unanimous Decision
Lucas Martins def. Jeremy Larsen via KO (punch), 0:13 of Round Three
(And remember folks, this is a UFC main event, so the fight will be scheduled for five rounds, and both fighters will be allowed to receive injections of synthetic testosterone during training. Wait, what’s that? Only *one* of them can do that? Well how the fuck does that make any sense? / Photo via Getty Images)
Ladies and gentlemen, we are about to go live from Jaraguá do Sul — known to many* as the Kansas City of Brazil — for UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs. Rockhold. Once again, the Phenom has home-country advantage and the Lord’s blessing. Will that be enough to stave off the invasion of a young, hungry, and very amped-up former Strikeforce champ? Plus: Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza makes his UFC debut against Chris Camozzi, and Rafael Dos Anjos clashes with Evan Dunham in the lightweight division.
Taking us through the play-by-play tonight will be Matt Kaplan, who will be stacking live results after the jump beginning at 9 p.m. ET. Refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest, and toss in your own thoughts in the comments section — or just holler at us on twitter @CagePotatoMMA.
* Or perhaps, nobody?
(And remember folks, this is a UFC main event, so the fight will be scheduled for five rounds, and both fighters will be allowed to receive injections of synthetic testosterone during training. Wait, what’s that? Only *one* of them can do that? Well how the fuck does that make any sense? / Photo via Getty Images)
Ladies and gentlemen, we are about to go live from Jaraguá do Sul — known to many* as the Kansas City of Brazil — for UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs. Rockhold. Once again, the Phenom has home-country advantage and the Lord’s blessing. Will that be enough to stave off the invasion of a young, hungry, and very amped-up former Strikeforce champ? Plus: Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza makes his UFC debut against Chris Camozzi, and Rafael Dos Anjos clashes with Evan Dunham in the lightweight division.
Taking us through the play-by-play tonight will be Matt Kaplan, who will be stacking live results after the jump beginning at 9 p.m. ET. Refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest, and toss in your own thoughts in the comments section — or just holler at us on twitter @CagePotatoMMA.
* Or perhaps, nobody?
MK here, live in Jaraguá do Sul and very excited for tonight’s Belfort-Rockhold main event. If Belfort is nearly as fired up by his countrymen tonight as he was at the weigh-ins yesterday, this fight will be the mutt’s nuts.
Man, I forgot how good watching Belfort drop Bisping felt. Great highlight. I also liked when Hendo dropped Bisping. And when Wanderlei dropped Bisping.
Rafael Natal vs. Joao Zeferino
Rd. 1 – Both men test the waters early, and Zeferino opens things up with a bight right overhand that connects. Zeferino kicks Natal in the right cheek. Wow, that was fast. Natal seems less sure with his striking than Zeferino and is feeling the pressure of Zeferino’s straight-ahead charge. Zeferino lands on top of Natal after a clinch against the fence. 50/50 guard, and Zeferino is working on a heel. Natal is chopping away on Zeferino’s left arm with his heel, but nah. The crowd is starting to boo as both men fight for position in 50-50 guard. Again Natal kicks at Zeferino’s left arm. Zeferino still wants that heel, dammit. The ref stands them up with 20 seconds left, but the crowd is still annoyed. I’d give that round to Zeferino, I guess.
Rd. 2 -Zeferino ignores Natal’s jabs and wings another overhand right. Natal stuffs a double, but Zeferino scores a takedown. Natal is right back up, though, and has Zeferino pressed against the cage. Zeferino reverses and has Natal against the fence. Both men separate and are back in the center of the cage. Things have slowed. The crowd again boos. Zeferino’s double is stuffed, and Natal has a front headlock on a downed Zeferino. Zeferino’s hands are real low. Natal charges in with a 1-2, but Zeferino counters. He looks gassed. Natal is producing at a higher rate now. Zeferino drops to his back, and Natal enters it behind a flying right hand. Natal finishes the round by dropping shots from Zeferino’s half guard.
Rd. 3 -Oh boy, they’re hugging. Natal is fresher and letting his hands and feet go. Natal slugs away at Zeferino against the fence, but Zeferino escapes and lands a big right that got Natal’s attention. Close fight. Zeferino just threw a slow motion right cross and then another looping right overhand. Zeferino nearly catches the side kick from Natal, but is taken down in the ensuing scramble. Natal is in half guard now. Natal is droping punches and is back in full guard with 1:30 to go. Zeferino is stopping the submission attempt, but is eating forearms to the ribs. And now he’s mounted. Natal is slamming away from the mount. Zeferino is survivng, but not much else. Strong finish from Natal.
Natal earns the unanimous decision victory.
Anyone ever try this Sailor Jerry spiced rum? The commercial features a bunch of people who look a lot like me, so I feel like I should maybe get on this.
I think Bigfoot is gonna get that work from Cain Velazquez.
Evan Dunham vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
Rd. 1 -Dunham has not been tanning down in Brazil. Huge leg kick from Dos Anjos. DosAnjos kicks upstairs now, but Dunham blocks. Dos Anjos is firing punch-kick combos fast and hard, while Dunham is sluggis out the gate. Dos Anjos is kicking and avoiding the counter punches from the pasty American. Good head movement too. Dos Anjos keeps firing, but Dunham is picking things up. Dunham counters a Dos Anjos kick and lands a takedown. Dunham in full guard and going to work with his closed fists. Ref stands them up with 13 seconds left, and Dos Anjos lands a wide left after missing with a right uppercut.
Rd. 2 – Dos Anjos lands an early left jab. Dunham lands the double. Dos Anjos is back up, then down, then back up again.Dunham is looking to clinch. Dos Anjos lands a hard right to the body. Dos Anjos looks for a single against the fence, but settles for a right hand to the side of Dunham’s head as both men retreat to the center of the cage. Dunham is finding his range, but Don Anjos is landing the harder, faster punches. Borth men are working, and Dos Anjos has blood from his right eye. Dos Anjos is starting to throw wildly, whereas Dunham is picking up the pace and punching with more accuracy. Dos Anjos unleashes the power with a kick-punch combo, and Dunham ends the round with a last-second takedown. Close fight so far.
Rd. 3 – Both men are letting the hands fly. Don Anjos has blood from hisn nose and right eye brow, and Dunham looks very sure of himself. Dos Anjos stuffs a double against the cage and lands a knee. Back in the center of the cage, Dunham eats a thunderous kick to his left side and a hook to the same side of his head. Both are bloody, both are firing away with straight punches and baaaad intentions. Dunham goes in for the single, but Dos Anjos keeps hismelf up. Dunham wants to do work in the clinch, but it’s Dos Anjos who locks in the Thai clinch for a bit. 30 seconds left and we’re swinging away in the center of the octagon. Hooks to the body and head until the final bell. Great final frame.
Rafael Dos Anjos takes the unanimous decision.
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza vs. Chris Camozzi
Rd. 1 – Camozzi isn’t afraid. He’s come out with 1-2s and kicks, but now Jacare’s got him against the cage. Biiig overhand right from Jacare. A trip from Jacare. Camozzi upkicks as Jacare descends into his guard. Over to half guard. Jacare is punching the body of Camozzi, who lands an upkick to Jarace’s face. And Jacare gets side control. Scramble. Omaplata? Yup. Camozzi is safe, but Jacare is back in side control. Make that a full mount. Head and arm choke time. Got it. Night night.
Jacare wins by Rd. 1 sub.
Luke Rockhold vs. Vitor Belfort
Rd. 1 – Referee Leon Roberts gives the instructions and we’re under way. Rockhold misses a head kick and falls, but Vitor lets him up. Vitor fires a spin kick – just off. Rockhold shoots. Vitor hits Rockhold with a fast right, but Rockhold ties him up. In the center of the cage, Vitor shows his hand speed, just missing with punches, but scoring with low kicks that delight the crowd. Rockhold lands a left. Spinning heel kick. Rockhold is down. He’s out. Shit. I just saw the replay: wow. It was a tight, precise, spinning heel kick to the left side of Rockhold’s jaw that dropped him, and then Vitor connected with four monster punches to an already dazed young former Strikeforce champion.
Philippou is riding a five-fight win streak in the Octagon, and was going to serve as the UFC welcoming committee for Jacare, the former Strikeforce middleweight champion who has won his last three fights by stoppage, including his first-round submission of Ed Herman in January. No word yet if Souza will remain on the card against a different opponent…although the card could certainly use him. We’ll keep you posted.
* I mean, we’re assuming it happened during training. Maybe Costa participates in underground knife fights on the weekends to pick up extra beer money. Maybe it was a freakish eyebrow-plucking accident. Maybe he got scratched by one of his pet wolverines. I don’t know. We’ll just say “cut suffered in training” for now.
Philippou is riding a five-fight win streak in the Octagon, and was going to serve as the UFC welcoming committee for Jacare, the former Strikeforce middleweight champion who has won his last three fights by stoppage, including his first-round submission of Ed Herman in January. No word yet if Souza will remain on the card against a different opponent…although the card could certainly use him. We’ll keep you posted.
* I mean, we’re assuming it happened during training. Maybe Costa participates in underground knife fights on the weekends to pick up extra beer money. Maybe it was a freakish eyebrow-plucking accident. Maybe he got scratched by one of his pet wolverines. I don’t know. We’ll just say “cut suffered in training” for now.
The UFC Middleweight division has long been ruled by the most feared and successful striker in MMA history, champion Anderson Silva. And perhaps more so than in smaller divisions, striking has been a good predictor of success at Middleweight. So examining this division in core striking performance metrics should provide good insight to how fighters will fare against each other in standup. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end of this post.
But first, let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, and look at the winners and losers.
The Winners
Sniper Award: Two fights into his UFC career, cross-trained Dutchman Michael Kuiper has landed 49% of his power head strikes. We’ll see if he can maintain this in his upcoming matchup with veteran brawler Tom Lawlor in Sweden. Honorable mention must be given to Anderson Silva who has maintained 40% accuracy over his lengthy and dominant career. And also noteworthy is Italian boxer, Alessio Sakara, currently on the bench for health reasons.
Energizer Bunny Award: Strikeforce veteran Roger Gracie has been almost doubling the striking output of opponents on his way to a string of submission wins in typical Gracie fashion. Some grapplers use strikes to set up their mat-work, others don’t. Honorable mentions go to former champ Rich Franklin, and Strikeforce champ and crossover contender Luke Rockhold, who each tend to outpace their opponents by over 80%.
Biggest Ball(s) Award: The UFC record holder for knockdowns is Anderson Silva. He is literally the best in the business at dropping dudes. Statistically, when Silva lands a power head strike, there’s a 27% chance it will result in a knockdown, which is just ridiculous. These skills have won him Knockout of the Night honors seven times in the UFC.
(Click chart for full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)
The UFC Middleweight division has long been ruled by the most feared and successful striker in MMA history, champion Anderson Silva. And perhaps more so than in smaller divisions, striking has been a good predictor of success at Middleweight. So examining this division in core striking performance metrics should provide good insight to how fighters will fare against each other in standup. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end of this post.
But first, let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, and look at the winners and losers.
The Winners
Sniper Award: Two fights into his UFC career, cross-trained Dutchman Michael Kuiper has landed 49% of his power head strikes. We’ll see if he can maintain this in his upcoming matchup with veteran brawler Tom Lawlor in Sweden. Honorable mention must be given to Anderson Silva who has maintained 40% accuracy over his lengthy and dominant career. And also noteworthy is Italian boxer, Alessio Sakara, currently on the bench for health reasons.
Energizer Bunny Award: Strikeforce veteran Roger Gracie has been almost doubling the striking output of opponents on his way to a string of submission wins in typical Gracie fashion. Some grapplers use strikes to set up their mat-work, others don’t. Honorable mentions go to former champ Rich Franklin, and Strikeforce champ and crossover contender Luke Rockhold, who each tend to outpace their opponents by over 80%.
Biggest Ball(s) Award: The UFC record holder for knockdowns is Anderson Silva. He is literally the best in the business at dropping dudes. Statistically, when Silva lands a power head strike, there’s a 27% chance it will result in a knockdown, which is just ridiculous. These skills have won him Knockout of the Night honors seven times in the UFC.
The Losers
Swing and a Miss Award:Jason MacDonald and the aforementioned Roger Gracie only land 10% of their power head strikes. Perhaps that’s ok, since both guys are grappling specialists. It remains to be seen with Gracie, but MacDonald’s lack of standup skills has put him on the wrong end of Knockout of the Night awards in the past.
Starnes Award for Inaction: While Michael Kuiper has been very accurate so far, he also been very much a counter striker. He only had half the total striking output of his opponents to date. Some notable grapplers also show up on the far left, like Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza and Rousimar Palhares. Jacare will have his hand full with the streaking Cypriot, Costa Philippou, while Palhares is still recovering from a beatdown from bomber Hector Lombard.
Smallest Ball(s) Award: Only 12 of the fighters shown have yet to score a knockdown in the UFC. But Jason MacDonald has yet to do so despite over 80 minutes of Octagon time.
Also Noteworthy
The high frequency of the red bubbles shows how successful Southpaws have been in the UFC Middleweight division. Twelve of the 44 fighters shown in the graph are left-handed, about three times the baseline rate for the population at large.
The Middleweights also pack a punch. The fighters shown above have recorded 114 knockdowns in their time in UFC and Strikeforce cages. Amazingly, Anderson Silva owns 17 of those.
Like other divisions, Middleweights show the same tradeoff between volume and accuracy. Counter-strikers tend to be more accurate, but must sacrifice volume while evading opponents, which is dangerous on judges’ cards. And high volume, forward pressing fighters tend not to land with as high accuracy.
This weekend at UFC on Fuel TV 8, watch for a clash between the heavy-handed Hector Lombard, and seasoned counter-striker Yushin Okami. If Lombard wants to test Okami’s chin, he’ll have to improve his movement to cut off the cage and get close. The matchup will certainly have implications on the UFC rankings for the division.
Only two divisions left to look at. Next week we’ll see how Georges St-Pierre stacks up with the rest of UFC Welterweights, and then we’ll look at the big boys.
How the Analysis Works:
In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:
Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs to the head), where the average for UFC Middleweights is about 26%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.
Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.
Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.
The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012, including UFC 155. Some of these fighters competed in other weight classes or at catchweight, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still included and analyzed. Fighters with only one fight or less than 15 minutes of fight time were not included in the graph.
Be that as it may, UFC on FX 8 will now feature a pair of middleweight showdowns that should have title implications written all over them, as the pairing of Souza and Philippou was just made official a few hours ago. Since losing his Strikeforce middleweight title to Rockhold in September of 2011, “Jacare” has collected three straight stoppage victories, including a first round kimura submission of Ed Herman at Strikeforce’s final event last month.
(“OH GOD, OH GOD. I CAN’T FIND A PULSE, YOSEMITE!”)
Be that as it may, UFC on FX 8 will now feature a pair of middleweight showdowns that should have title implications written all over them, as the pairing of Souza and Philippou was just made official a few hours ago. Since losing his Strikeforce middleweight title to Rockhold in September of 2011, “Jacare” has collected three straight stoppage victories, including a first round kimura submission of Ed Herman at Strikeforce’s final event last month.
Philippou, on the other hand, has been quietly stringing together increasingly impressive wins since entering the UFC’s middleweight division back in March of 2011. After compiling a 4-1 record in the promotion, Philippou stepped in on short notice for injured teammate Chris Weidman against Tim Boetsch at UFC 155 and battered the top contender (and eye-poked him, and headbutted him) en route to a third round TKO victory.
Who do you like for this fight, Potato Nation, and more importantly, should we even fool ourselves into thinking the winner will pop up on Silva’s radar?
