Saturday night will see the long-awaited return of UFC heavyweight Alistair Overeem after he serves out his nine-month suspension for failing a drug test. His opponent, Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva recently ended his two-fight losing streak with…
Saturday night will see the long-awaited return of UFC heavyweight Alistair Overeem after he serves out his nine-month suspension for failing a drug test.
His opponent, Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva recently ended his two-fight losing streak with an emphatic first-round KO of much-fancied heavyweight Travis Browne.
However, for Overeem, the Brazilian is just one stepping stone to a title-shot which was destined to be his.
The Dutch fighter had already secured the number one contender’s spot last year after defeating Brock Lesnar in his UFC debut and was all set to take on Junior Dos Santos for the belt before he got popped for using steroids.
But rather than wait to face champion Cain Velasquez, who only just won the title at the end of December, Overeem has decided to take on former Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix semifinalist, Silva.
Here’s how the two fighters break down head to toe.
While it’s perhaps not the superfight that fans expected or were excited for in 2013, UFC 156 is being headlined by a collision between two of the sport’s biggest little guys in Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar. With all the talk of Anderson Sil…
While it’s perhaps not the superfight that fans expected or were excited for in 2013, UFC 156 is being headlined by a collision between two of the sport’s biggest little guys in Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar.
With all the talk of Anderson Silva bouncing around to fight any champion with a pulse, people likely thought that he’d be the one making superfight headlines this year.
He’s not (yet) though, and instead focus is on the traditionally massive Super Bowl Weekend UFC card being headlined by a tilt between two of the best pound-for-pounders alive.
Not only will UFC 156 feature a superfight between pound-for-pound great Jose Aldo and former UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar, it will also mark the return of Alistair Overeem to the Octagon.As one of the UFC’s most popular fighters and biggest …
Not only will UFC 156 feature a superfight between pound-for-pound great Jose Aldo and former UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar, it will also mark the return of Alistair Overeem to the Octagon.
As one of the UFC’s most popular fighters and biggest pay-per-view draws, Overeem’s comeback will be welcomed with open arms.
The question is, what exactly can we expect?
Overeem hasn’t fought since December 2011 due to a lengthy drug suspension. In his last fight, he just so happened to finish a washed-up Brock Lesnar by kicking his already injured stomach.
UFC 156 will be Overeem’s first true test in the deepest heavyweight division in the world as he steps inside the cage opposite Antonio “Big Foot” Silva. Silva is coming off a devastating knockout victory over Travis Browne and could easily prolong success if he’s taken lightly.
Here are five keys to victory for “The Demolition Man” as he attempts to re-polish his title-contending image.
The hype surrounding gargantuan Dutchman Alistair Overeem has yet to come to fruition in the UFC—a fact that could soon alter, presuming “The Demolition Man” prevails in his co-main event bout at UFC 156 on Saturday. Poli…
The hype surrounding gargantuan Dutchman Alistair Overeem has yet to come to fruition in the UFC—a fact that could soon alter, presuming “The Demolition Man” prevails in his co-main event bout at UFC 156 on Saturday.
Polishing off dangerous opponents has long served as a staple of Overeem’s game, and if the hulking 32-year-old can add another notable submission or knockout to his résumé against Antonio Silva, he could instantly leapfrog Junior Dos Santos as the top contender in the heavyweight division.
Overeem still blames the postponement of his launch in the UFC on a miscommunication with a physician which ultimately resulted in a failed drug test in April.
Delays aside, Overeem immediately thrust his name back into the conversation of possible challengers for Velasquez when the Nevada State Athletic Commission granted the former Strikeforce, Dream and K-1 Grand Prix champion his fight license on Jan. 8.
During a media call for UFC 156, the supremely confident Overeem, who last tasted defeat in September 2007, elaborated on once again having a title shot in his crosshairs.
“It’s just a matter of time, in my sense. We still have one more mountain to climb, and that’s Bigfoot. But to be honest, I don’t see any problem.”
Despite having just one fight in the UFC—albeit a TKO win over former champion Brock Lesnar—Overeem is unbeaten in his last 12 tilts (with 10 finishes in that span) and could jump to the front of a long line of deserving contenders with a decisive win over Silva.
That means potential title challengers like Dos Santos and Fabricio Werdum will surely become Bigfoot fans for a night on Saturday.
Not for a lack of ability, but “Cigano” and “Vai Cavalo” shouldn’t put too much faith in Silva, at least according to SportsBook.com, which lists Overeem as a 4.5-to-1 favorite (-450).
Considering some of his signature victories, which came over the likes of Lesnar, VitorBelfort (twice), and Werdum, a win over Silva wouldn’t represent Overeem’s most significant career triumph. However, besting Silva in impressive fashion could put “The Demolition” Man in line for a title shot in his next fight.
Regardless of what’s a stake or what the oddsmakers say, Overeem remains adamant that he’s staying fixated on the massive Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt.
“I’m always focused on my next battle. Winning the next fight is the most important thing.”
Anderson Silva might not be fighting Georges St-Pierre or Jon Jones anytime soon, but MMA fans are still getting a superfight in the form of the UFC 156 main event between featherweight champion Jose Aldo and former lightweight titleholder Frankie Edga…
Anderson Silva might not be fighting Georges St-Pierre or Jon Jones anytime soon, but MMA fans are still getting a superfight in the form of the UFC 156 main event between featherweight champion Jose Aldo and former lightweight titleholder Frankie Edgar.
When Edgar was 155-pound champion, and many believe he still should be after a controversial decision in a rematch with Benson Henderson, there was plenty of interest in Aldo’s potential move to lightweight and the fight with Edgar that would result from it.
On Saturday, that matchup will come to fruition at 145 pounds instead.
As the biggest fight of early-2013 approaches, let’s take a look at which fighter is favored to walk away from UFC 156 as featherweight champion and who has the edge in the remaining main card bouts.
Sniper Award: Cub Swanson has been on a roll lately and tops out as the division’s most accurate striker, landing 37% of his power head strike attempts. For perspective, that’s bordering on Anderson Silva-type accuracy, at least statistically. This has helped Swanson win three straight in the UFC, all by (T)KO, and pick up two straight Knockout of the Night bonuses.
Energizer Bunny Award: Southpaw Erik Koch has more than doubled the striking output of his opponents. But that wasn’t enough to stop the ground Hellbows from Ricardo Lamas on last Saturday’s FOX card. There’s no doubt about Koch’s skills, he’ll just have to wait longer to test them against the current champ.
Biggest Ball(s) Award: Andy Ogle may cry a lot when he’s away from home, but no one should doubt the size of his, ahem, heart. Though he dropped a split decision in his UFC debut against Akira Corassani, he managed to knock down the Swede despite landing only two solid strikes to the head. He’d better improve his accuracy and pull the trigger more often if he hopes to get past the similarly gun-shy yet powerful Josh Grispi at UFC on FUEL 7 next month. Other notable featherweights with knockdown power include Koch, Aldo, Dennis Siver and Dennis Bermudez.
(Click chart for full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)
Sniper Award: Cub Swanson has been on a roll lately and tops out as the division’s most accurate striker, landing 37% of his power head strike attempts. For perspective, that’s bordering on Anderson Silva-type accuracy, at least statistically. This has helped Swanson win three straight in the UFC, all by (T)KO, and pick up two straight Knockout of the Night bonuses.
Energizer Bunny Award: Southpaw Erik Koch has more than doubled the striking output of his opponents. But that wasn’t enough to stop the ground Hellbows from Ricardo Lamas on last Saturday’s FOX card. There’s no doubt about Koch’s skills, he’ll just have to wait longer to test them against the current champ.
Biggest Ball(s) Award: Andy Ogle may cry a lot when he’s away from home, but no one should doubt the size of his, ahem, heart. Though he dropped a split decision in his UFC debut against Akira Corassani, he managed to knock down the Swede despite landing only two solid strikes to the head. He’d better improve his accuracy and pull the trigger more often if he hopes to get past the similarly gun-shy yet powerful Josh Grispi at UFC on FUEL 7 next month. Other notable featherweights with knockdown power include Koch, Aldo, Dennis Siver and Dennis Bermudez.
The Losers
Swing and a Miss Award: Recent UFC debutant Yaotzin Meza failed to land a single power head strike on Chad Mendes during his two-minute KO loss at UFC on FX 6. Other guys also needing some accuracy improvement include Hacran Dias and Rani Yahya, who each miss nine times out of ten.
Smallest Ball(s): 22 of the 49 Featherweights shown here have yet to score a knockdown, but Nik Lentz and Nam Phan have failed to do so despite over two hours of total Octagon fight time each.
Starnes Award for Inaction: Josh “The Gentleman” Clopton threw a total of 33 standing strikes over three full rounds at the TUF 14 Finale against Steven Siler, who more than doubled Clopton’s output. That’s barely two strikes per minute. Clopton was heard politely saying, “no, after you!” before each exchange.
Also Noteworthy
According to the data, Jose Aldo matches pace with his opponents, but is more accurate, and has clear knockout power. Frankie Edgar*, however, doesn’t have the same accuracy or power, and is in fact below average for the division by those metrics. We’ll see how things play out this weekend at UFC 156 in what Dana White is billing as the first “Super Fight” of the year. Also coming up on February 16th, we’ll see two of the featherweight division’s best, Cub Swanson and Dustin Poirier, face off for a potential contender spot.
Next week we’ll look at the Bantamweights in time to see how Renan Barao and Michael McDonald stack up with the rest of the division. Any predictions on who will take the awards?
How the Analysis Works:
In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:
Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs to the head), where the average for UFC Flyweights is about 25%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.
Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.
Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.
* The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012, through UFC 155. Many of these fighters (such as Frankie Edgar) competed in other higher weight classes, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still included and analyzed.
The hype surrounding gargantuan Dutchman Alistair Overeem has yet to come to fruition in the UFC—a fact that could soon alter, presuming “The Demolition Man” prevails in his co-main event bout at 