MMA events in Texas have become a running gag due to the wackiness of the Texas Department of Licensing and Registration, but the bucks are just too beaucoup for the UFC to pass up. The good (or maybe bad) news, though, is that the company’s upcoming t…
MMA events in Texas have become a running gag due to the wackiness of the Texas Department of Licensing and Registration, but the bucks are just too beaucoup for the UFC to pass up. The good (or maybe bad) news, though, is that the company’s upcoming trip to Houston is chock full of big names.
There is plenty to look forward to on Saturday night, and as usual Bleacher Report’s crack team of writers is here to give you their predictions. So who gets the “W” according to the crew? Click on and out!
The timing of Jon Jones’ plea bargain couldn’t have been any worse for Daniel Cormier and Alexander Gustafsson.
People were already looking down their noses at Saturday’s UFC 192 main event, when Cormier will face Gustafsson in the fi…
The timing of Jon Jones’ plea bargain couldn’t have been any worse for Daniel Cormier and Alexander Gustafsson.
People were already looking down their noses at Saturday’s UFC 192 main event, when Cormier will face Gustafsson in the first defense of his newly won and fiercely disputed light heavyweight title.
They were already saying this bout and that belt were a sham—and that was before Jones’ seemingly precarious legal snarl stemming from an April hit-and-run accident wrapped itself up in a neat little bow.
Jones skated out of the Albuquerque, New Mexico, district court on Tuesday with no jail time, no fine and no felony conviction after a judge accepted his compromise with prosecutors.
The criminal charges that forced the UFC to strip Jones of the title and put him on indefinite suspension are suddenly on the verge of being history. So long as he can complete a maximum 18-month sentence of supervised probation, he will be a free and unencumbered man. Conventional wisdom says it won’t take nearly that long for him to return to the Octagon.
So Cormier vs. Gustafsson—on shaky ground from the start—suddenly seems completely superfluous. A championship fight originally designed to move the division out of Jones’ shadow now shapes up as nothing more than a glorified No. 1 contender bout.
Because Jones has returned.
Almost.
Immediately following this week’s court appearance, the UFC announced it would fully review Jones’ plea deal before making a decision on his future. Really, though, there’s only one decision to make. So long as the greatest light heavyweight of all time is healthy and willing, there should be nothing stopping him from returning to active duty.
In other words, the moment this weekend when UFC President Dana White wraps the championship around somebody’s waist has already been ruined. We’ve preemptively hurtled it and—to paraphrase the great poet Bill Belichick—we’re on to Jones.
This weekend’s winner will likely receive nothing but scorn from MMA fans if he is anything but deferential and if he does anything other than immediately call out Jones. The only real prize to be won on this night will be a modicum of respect—and maybe the chance to rematch the man most everybody considers the rightful champion.
And, really, that’s not fair to either Cormier or Gustafsson.
Both have already lost to Jones but otherwise have given us no reason to dislike them. They didn’t do anything wrong here. All they did was go about the business of being two of the best 205-pounders in the world, reacting to and benefiting from situations that were beyond their control.
Cormier, who dropped a unanimous decision to Jones in January at UFC 182, was still thought of highly enough for entrance into a bout against Anthony Johnson for the newly vacated title at UFC 187. In that bout he weathered an early knockdown and battled back to claim the championship by third-round submission.
He proved himself to be the better-rounded mixed martial artist than the powerful Johnson and maybe a better MMA fighter than anyone in the division not named Bones. He has been unapologetic about his current standing as champ. He’s has no good reason to apologize, but his steadfastness hasn’t done his popularity any favors.
“I didn’t disqualify myself from competition, Jon did,” Cormier said at the postfight press conference the night he beat Johnson (via MMAFighting.com’s Chuck Mindenhall). “Jon’s the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world. We all know that. But, he disqualified himself from this competition right now. So I am the champion.”
Cormier is a good guy and a great fighter, but so far people aren’t buying him as champion. A win over Gustafsson is vital for him to begin proving he’s more than just Jones’ understudy. It’s the first step on the only road that leads to him eventually shaking his runner-up reputation—the road that ends in a second bout with Jones.
Meanwhile, Gustafsson is regarded as the man to come closest to ending Jones’ four-year reign of terror over the 205-pound division. He pushed the champion to the limit in their meeting at UFC 165—a bout where many considered Jones lucky to emerge with a unanimous-decision win.
In the wake of that fight, however, reports emerged that Jones hadn’t trained properly for Gustafsson. Rumors said he was partying too much and hadn’t done his due diligence for the Swede, who came in as a 5-1 underdog, according to Odds Shark.
Considering what we now know about Jones’ lifestyle, those rumblings certainly haven’t taken on any less gravity.
So Gustafsson enters this battle with Cormier as a well-regarded fighter, but one whose biggest accomplishment is a loss. His UFC victories—Jimi Manuwa, Shogun Rua and Thiago Silva, in his last three—don’t appear particularly mind blowing in retrospect.
He also got knocked out in the first round during his most recent appearance, a fight against Johnson at home in Sweden.
Analysts are sill trying to figure out exactly how good Gustafsson can be. A victory over Cormier would mean a lot for his reputation. It would be a step toward proving his surprising showing against Jones was more about Gustafsson’s own attributes than Jones thinking he was going to have an easy night.
On the flip side, a loss would leave Gustafsson 1-3 in last four bouts and would seem to confirm our worst fears about him. It would be a tough hole to battle out of, though at just 28 years old, he would have ample opportunity.
The truly bad news for both Gustafsson and Cormier is that we have no real reason to suspect either can beat Jones, even if granted a mulligan. Unfortunately, that’s what it’s going to take to prove the belt they’re fighting for this weekend is more than just a trinket.
The UFC light heavyweight division has undergone a drastic change this year, but in many ways it is set up better to sell Saturday’s main event at UFC 192 between light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier and challenger Alexander Gustafsson.
Even…
The UFC light heavyweight division has undergone a drastic change this year, but in many ways it is set up better to sell Saturday’s main event at UFC 192 between light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier and challenger Alexander Gustafsson.
Even though Jon Jones was supposed to lead the division into the future, Cormier and Gustafsson aren’t bad alternatives. The champion has a 16-1 career record, with his only loss coming against Jones at UFC 182, and has been terrific since moving down to 205 pounds (3-1, two submissions).
Gustafsson became a star following his 2013 title fight against Jones, a five-round unanimous-decision loss in which he took the champion to the mat and displayed incredible power and precision with his striking.
However, Gustafsson has to rebuild his stock following a January loss against Anthony Johnson in which he was knocked out for the first time in his career. It’s not an ideal scenario to throw a contender into a title fight, but the 28-year-old certainly has the talent to give Cormier a challenge.
Cormier Highlights, Strategy
As the tale of the tape shows, Cormier is at a height and reach disadvantage. The 36-year-old is short and stocky, but he has evolved his style in such a way that makes him one of the most dangerous fighters regardless of weight class.
There also are few fighters who can claim to be as tough. Looking at highlights from Cormier‘s last fight against Johnson in May, via UFC on Fox, the first thing that jumps out is his ability to take a punch:
Johnson’s right hook catches Cormier square in the head and stuns him, yet the champion is able to keep his composure long enough to avoid letting Rumble get on top of him for an early finish.
It’s not like Johnson lacks power, as 14 of his 20 career victories have come by (T)KO, making Cormier‘s ability to recover from that moment even more impressive.
That will serve Cormier well heading into Saturday’s matchup with Gustafsson, who is another fighter seeking to brawl with anything that stands in his way.
Speaking to reporters, via Michael Martinez of UFC.com, Cormier left no doubt about his conviction in being able to match Gustafsson‘s ability to strike:
I believe I can box with (Gustafsson). There are ways to win fights, and sometimes you don’t always choose the easiest way to win. If it’s a boxing fight with Alex, I can hold my own. I believe I’ll be able to get on the inside with him. I believe that my hands are just as fast, if not faster, and I believe that I’ll hit with more power than he does. If it’s a stand-up fight, sure, why not? I’d enjoy that.
The other item from the highlight package that jumps out is Cormier‘s power. Immediately after it shows the punch, the cut jumps to Cormier carrying Johnson on his back before slamming him into the mat.
That particular highlight also leads into an area where Cormier can shine, even though he doesn’t use it as often as he once did: wrestling.
Cormier is a world-class wrestler who won gold medals at the 2002 Pan American Championships and 2003 Pan American Games and started his MMA career as more of a mat technician.
Being able to develop as a striker has taken Cormier to the level he’s currently at, holding the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship. He’s got great defense against striking and grappling, forcing opponents into frustration before taking his big chance to end the match.
Gustafsson Highlights, Strategy
When your nickname is The Mauler, there’s no sense trying to dance around what you want to do. Gustafsson does actually have three submissions under his belt, though none have come since 2011.
It’s hard to take issue with Gustafsson‘s strategy of just trying to pummel opponents into the mat. There aren’t many fighters in the 205-pound weight class who can match his combination of size (6’5″) and reach (79″).
Highlight packages are built to show the best aspects of any given athlete, but they can also be illuminating in the proper context.
For instance, look at this two-minute package put together by UFC Undisputed featuring Gustafsson:
It’s all standing and striking all the time, but look around the 85-second mark for the highlight from Gustafsson‘s showdown with Jones. Jones attempts to come in for a strike that is blocked, leaving Gustafsson little time and space to build impact for a counterpunch.
But because Gustafsson is so strong, his right hand connects square on Jones’ left cheek and would have been enough to drop most fighters. That kind of force with so little reaction time is unique and special.
If there is one fighter in UFC who defines true one-punch knockout power, it’s Gustafsson. His strategy against Cormier will be critical, though he told Elias Cepeda of Fox Sports he’s not afraid of getting into a wrestling match:
He is a high-caliber guy and I can’t compare myself to Jon Jones and other fighters, because we’re totally different fighters and different fighters make different fights. But I’ve done my homework. If he wants to wrestle, I’ll be ready to wrestle. If he wants to strike, I’ll be ready to strike. I’ll have an answer for whatever happens. He’ll probably take me down once or two times but I’ll get up. I’m ready to go toe-to-toe with Daniel Cormier. I’m ready.
As confident as Gustafsson sounds, it veers into hubris because he’s not a wrestler or mat technician. There are certainly matches in which he’s worked on the ground, but going against a superior all-around fighter isn’t going to make it easy to bounce right back up.
Given Gustafsson‘s size advantage, it’s in Cormier‘s best interest to make this a mat fight. Gustafsson does have strong takedown defense, but he seemed to acknowledge there’s going to be moments when the fight is on the ground.
Once things get on the mat, Cormier can stay on top and force Gustafsson to overextend himself and waste stamina just trying to get up. That will inhibit his power later in the fight, making it essential for the Swedish star to try ending things before the championship rounds.
A lot of moving pieces—that’s the best way to describe the light heavyweight division as UFC 192 approaches.
Daniel Cormier was poised to make the first defense of his 205-pound title against Alexander Gustafsson when an Albuquerque judge o…
A lot of moving pieces—that’s the best way to describe the light heavyweight division as UFC 192 approaches.
Daniel Cormier was poised to make the first defense of his 205-pound title against Alexander Gustafsson when an Albuquerque judge on Tuesday cleared the way for former champion Jon Jones to return to the Octagon.
That means not only are Cormier and Gustafsson now fighting over an extra disputed version of the light heavyweight championship on Saturday, but they might each be vying for a rematch with Jones too. While it’s still too early to tell, it’s tough to imagine the 205-pound GOAT will be out much longer.
In addition to that, former champion Rashad Evans finally returns from a lengthy injury timeout. He’ll meet Ryan Bader in what could turn out to be a No. 1 contender fight. At the very least, the winner will be right there nipping at the heels of whoever emerges from the Cormier-Gustafsson-Jones love triangle with the belt.
Which is to say nothing of Anthony Johnson, who does not fight this weekend but nonetheless casts a very long shadow.
There’s a lot going on, and it has never been more difficult to separate the fact from the fiction. Luckily, Bleacher Report lead writers Chad Dundas (that’s me) and Jonathan Snowden are here to lend a helping hand.
Read on to find out what’s really going on at UFC 192…
Fact or Fiction: A big win makes Daniel Cormier’s title claims a little less preposterous.
Jonathan: Fiction. This is sort of a trick question. If Cormier goes out and demolishes Gustafsson, a man who pushed Jones to the limit, it would certainly be a big statement heading into a rematch. At the very least it would suggest Cormier has figured out a way to deal with extreme deficits in height and reach.
But the question, by its very nature, assumes Cormier is going to dispatch the taciturn Swede. I’m not so sure that’s true. While Cormier sometimes managed to sneak inside on the much longer Jones, the former champion isn’t nearly as fastidious as Gustafsson about maintaining distance. While he’s happy to grind a fool up at range, he secretly loves it when someone dares clinch with him.
And why not? Jones is merely the best inside fighter in the world.
Gustafsson will work much harder to keep Cormier on the outside. While the former Olympian is too good a fighter to be completely stymied, I see Gustafsson potentially keeping Cormier at bay on his way to a decision win.
The good news? Cormier’s preposterous reign ends, as it should, in ignominy. The bad news? An even more absurd champion is crowned. Chad, can we just have Jones back already?
Chad: As a matter of fact, Jonathan, yes. A folksy Albuquerque judge swept many of the obstacles to Jones’ return off the table on Tuesday. The UFC will now review his plea agreement before making any employment decision, but it appears we’re just a couple signatures away from having him back.
While that’s good news, I can’t match your scorn for Cormier’s reign. No, I don’t believe he’s the best light heavyweight in the world, but he didn’t do anything wrong by being second best, either. While Jones was on indefinite ice, the best-available move was to have the best-available guys fight for the vacant title—and Cormier turned out to be the best available.
He’ll beat Lusty Gusty handily Saturday. Seriously, who’s the Swede’s biggest win? Shogun Rua? Therefore, I’m going to say the initial statement is fact. The victory will make Cormier’s run less preposterous. With any luck, his rematch against Jones in April will be preposterously awesome too.
Jonathan: Fairly or not, Gustafsson is considered an elite light heavyweight on the strength of his best loss, not any of his wins. He pushed Jones to his limit, the same Jones who made Cormier burst into tears. Gustafsson proved that small victories can emerge from the cocoon of defeat, springing up the rankings based on what he almost did rather than anything he actually accomplished.
We’ve seemingly all accepted that fight as a de facto draw—and agreed to rank him accordingly. It’s the only explanation, unless Jimi Manuwa inexplicably carries a lot of weight with fans and the UFC’s ranking committee.
No matter who wins, it’s ultimately just two guys Jones beat fighting for his gold-plated leftovers. The world knows Jones is the real champion. Anyone else carrying the strap is a fraud.
Fact or Fiction: Johny Hendricks beats Tyron Woodley in the surprise Fight of the Night.
Chad: Fact. Co-main eventers Johny Hendricks and Tyron Woodley haven’t gotten much media shine leading up to UFC 192. They’ve been summarily overshadowed by one Jones court appearance and a UFC marketing strategy that prefers to focus on Gustafsson being kinda tall:
Both welterweights come into this bout on odd footing, having been passed over for No. 1 contender status in favor of the returning Carlos Condit. They’ve both said things fans may not exactly consider endearing. They’re both fighting for a higher spot in the divisional pecking order and to make their cases as guys who could be compelling future challengers for champion Robbie Lawler.
You know what? They succeed on Saturday. Or, at least, one of them does. I’m saying Hendricks gets back to the brawling style that made his two past fights with Lawler so popular. He puts the heat on Woodley and reclaims his position as top challenger after an action-packed bout that ends up earning both guys $50K performance-based bonuses.
Jonathan: There’s a lot going on in this fight. The two men actually met on the mats in college back in 2005. In a controversial match for the Big 12 championship, Woodley was penalized a point for biting Hendricks’ finger. He says he didn’t do any chomping and that Hendricks was the true villain for fish-hooking him.
While that kind of bad blood could lead to stand-and-Wang style fisticuffs, I think it’s more likely to end up as a glorified grappling match. That will be amazing for fans of Jon Fitch. For everyone else, it may end up being a bit of a snoozer.
Chad: Oh, ye of little faith. Look, we already know Hendricks is mad that fans didn’t stand up and demand the UFC make him No. 1 contender. We already know Woodley has a reputation among fight company brass of tanking on the big stage.
If either of these guys wants to prove he’s worthy of prime-time consideration, here’s their chance. To do it, it’s going to take more than just some rasslin’ and considerable gnashing of teeth.
Fact or Fiction: Ryan Bader spoils Rashad Evans’ return to action.
Chad: Fact-a-mundo. There’s no way to tell exactly what we’re dealing with in Evans. At 36 years old, he returns after roughly 23 months on the shelf and multiple knee surgeries. The folks at Odds Shark like his chances against Ryan Bader, but calling Evans the “favorite” in any MMA fight right now seems speculative at best.
He was once among the best fighters in the division, but we just won’t know if he’s capable of reclaiming that standing until we see him out there. If injuries have robbed him of any of his previous speed or mobility, then he might merely be an undersized 205-pounder with a good wrestling base.
Say what you want about Bader, but he’s a big, capable dude who rolls in on a four-fight win streak. There’s just too much rust on Evans here. Bader pulls the upset.
Jonathan: I’m torn here. I believe in full disclosure Chad, so it’s important I point out up front that I am totally in the tank for Evans. I’ve done two extensive profiles on the guy and really admire him as an athlete and a person.
In theory we’re supposed to dump all of that overboard when we make our fight picks. And I’ll try my best. But I just can’t see Rashad losing to Bader.
Listen, Bader is a solid enough fighter. He has solid wrestling and some pop in his punches. None of that is enough to handle Evans, who has made a career of beating up wrestlers with pop (Chuck Liddell and Rampage Jackson come to mind).
One of the advantages of being a former champion is a bank account sizable enough that Evans could delay his return until he was truly ready. I trust, if he’s getting into the cage, he’s ready. And if he’s ready, he’s too much for Bader.
Chad: I agree with you that Evans is absolutely likable, Jon—a guy, in fact, who breaks the mold in sports by actually listening to reporters’ questions, thinking about them and then trying give an honest answer. Hard to find anything to criticize there.
I also agree with you that the Evans we know—the one who is 14-3-1 during a near 10-year career in the Octagon—would handle Bader. But I feel I’ve been down the road too many times where an aging champion returns from a long injury layoff and gets immediately served with a tough comeback fight.
I’m not saying I want this particular installment of the Evans story to end like this. I’m just saying I know how it ends.
Fact or Fiction: Julianna Pena officially enters the Ronda Rousey sweepstakes.
Jonathan: Fact. Julianna Pena (7-2) is currently the No. 12 fighter in the UFC’s women’s bantamweight division. At least according to the official UFC rankings, a malleable arbiter of fighter standing since 2013. In theory that means there are a lot of warm bodies between Pena and the champ Ronda Rousey—perhaps most importantly 135 pounds of Jessica Eye at UFC 192.
But if Pena can get past Eye, currently ranked No. 6, she’s on the fast track to title contention. Look no further than Holly Holm to see a case study in action. Rousey, you see, has already dispatched most of the fighters in the top 10. That means a fighter who makes a splash in the bottom half of the division can see huge rewards for her trouble.
Beating Eye would be the cannonball into the deep end that Pena needs. With her brute strength and athleticism, she’s more than capable of taking Eye to the mat and crumbling her defenses with fight-ending ground-and-pound.
While the reward is an opportunity to get armbarred by Rousey in 30 seconds, that’s about as good as it gets for a young fighter at bantamweight. So…congratulations?
Chad: Eh, probably fiction. Don’t get me wrong, Pena could totally defeat Eye, who is just 1-2-1 in her UFC career and coming off a winnable fight against Miesha Tate that she let slip through her fingers in July.
But as for Rousey sticking around the Octagon long enough to start picking off Johnny-come-latelys like Pena? I have my doubts.
Her Rowdiness already has the date with Holm scheduled for November and smart money says she’s eventually going to end up with a big-money superfight against Cris “Cyborg” Justino. In addition to that, I have an easier time believing matchmakers would set her up with a third fight against Tate—which they tried to do already—or even a rematch with somebody like Cat Zingano before they throw Pena to the wolves.
So I guess the question is, how many UFC fights does Rousey have left in her before she leaves us forever in favor of a career where she doesn’t get punched in the face? Three? Four? And is that enough to sneak Pena in there? I doubt it.
Jonathan: Ronda Rousey already has a career where she doesn’t get punched in the face.
UFC 192 has plenty of must-see fights, but Daniel Cormier’s first attempt to defend his title against Alexander Gustafsson is worthy of main event billing.
The light heavyweight division might not seem quite right without Jon Jones at the top def…
UFC 192 has plenty of must-see fights, but Daniel Cormier‘s first attempt to defend his title against Alexander Gustafsson is worthy of main event billing.
The light heavyweight division might not seem quite right without Jon Jones at the top defending the belt, but it’s definitely more unpredictable with Cormier as king. Gone is the aura of invincibility that comes with a champion who defended his belt eight times.
In his stead is a man who still only has four fights as a light heavyweight. Cormier earned the belt in impressive fashion with a win over Anthony Johnson, but he’s already lost one of his four fights in the division.
Now, he’ll take the next step in legitimizing his crown by taking on the No. 2 ranked Gustafsson. Here’s a look at the tale of the tape between the two, including the latest odds from Odds Shark.
What They’re Saying
If you’re the type who needs a real sense of animosity between two combatants to get hyped for a fight, this might not be the encounter for you. Daniel Cormier has brought his usual banter to the table, but the reserved Swede hasn’t really played along.
Cormier has consistently gone after the fact that Gustafsson’s greatest claim to fame is that he lost a close decision to Jon Jones in 2013. All while bringing up the fact that the 6’5″ challenger is also getting this shot on the heels of another loss to Anthony Johnson in just over two minutes, per Dave Doyle of MMA Fighting:
Everything I’ve said is the truth. I think he should be annoyed by that. If you value your wins, and you value what you’ve done over the course of your career, then you wouldn’t want people harboring over a loss, even though you fought extremely well.
If anything, a guy just lost in two and a half minutes. Why would you build him back up? If you think his confidence is already low, why should I rebuild it for him?
But if the pre-fight talk is to be believed, Gustafsson’s confidence hasn’t waned despite the loss to Johnson. He’s simply tuning out what Cormier has to say and focused on the task at hand.
“I wasn’t even listening,” Gustafsson told Elias Cepeda of FOX Sports when asked about an event in which Cormier was doing his usual shtick. “I like to do my talking in the cage. That’s what I’m good at so I’m sticking to that. I’m not much of a talker on a stage. I believe we’re all professional athletes so we can show some mutual respect and wait until we get in the cage.”
Given Cormier’s penchant for hyping fights, it’s difficult to believe that there’s any actual disdain for his opponent. With Gustafsson refusing to even play along, the intrigue in this fight doesn’t lie in its trash talk. Both fighters, however, have taken the time to talk about Jon Jones in the buildup to this fight.
Cormier recently reiterated that he is the light heavyweight champion and it’s now on Jones to prepare to take that title away from him:
Gustafsson also entertained the idea of a rematch against the man who brought him into the limelight in 2013. “I’d probably fight Jon Jones again,” Gustafsson said, per Lewis Mckeever of Bloody Elbow, on whether he’d prefer a rematch with Jones or a fight with Cormier. “That’s the fight everybody wants to see. That’s the fight I want to have again. I would do it for myself, but I would mainly do it for my fans.”
The safest bet of the night might be that Jones comes up in the post-fight interview for whoever emerges victorious on Saturday night.
Predictions
There’s a reason why the champion comes into this bout as a considerable favorite. Outside of his loss to Jones, he’s looked dominant at 205 pounds. Cormier’s blend of exhausting pressure, powerful wrestling and heavy hands makes him a tough out for anyone not named Jon Jones.
However, there is reason to believe that Gustafsson can walk away victorious. As Patrick Wyman of Bleacher Report notes, his loss to Johnson by knockout might be overstated when analyzing how this fight will shake out:
The odds don’t seem right. It seems the knockout loss to Johnson has made the betting public forget the vast majority of Gustafsson’s career, which involved him moving constantly while using his height and reach to stick shorter fighters on the end of his strikes as they tried to walk him down. He produces a tremendous volume of strikes and wears his opponents down with output and pace
[…]
While it should be close, the pick is Gustafsson by decision in a major upset.
That’s certainly a compelling case. Gustafsson utilizes his reach as well as just about anyone outside the champion, and Cormier stands at just 5’11”.
However, this was the narrative before he fought Jones, too. Everyone questioned whether the challenger would be able to close the distance with Bones for long enough to do some damage.
As the fight developed, the answer to the main question was yes. Cormier was able to close the distance against Jones, as a vast majority of that fight took place in the clinch. What very few saw coming was Jones actually winning the clinch battle.
According to FightMetric, Jones outstruck Cormier in the clinch 40-22. So, closing the distance wasn’t nearly as vital for Cormier as anticipated. Against Cormier, however, the ability to control where the fight takes place will be crucial.
Gustafsson hasn’t shown the ability to do much damage in the clinch and only landed two strikes in the position against Jones.
Cormier is one of the best grinders in the game. Expect the former Olympic wrestler to work his opponent against the cage and use his powerful build to take this fight out of Gustafsson’s comfort zone over the course of five rounds.
The light heavyweight matchup of Ryan Bader and Rashad Evans could have been the main event on a lesser card than UFC 192.
On a card as loaded as the one set to take place Saturday, October 3, it serves as one of the delicious appetizers before a…
The light heavyweight matchup of Ryan Bader and Rashad Evans could have been the main event on a lesser card than UFC 192.
On a card as loaded as the one set to take place Saturday, October 3, it serves as one of the delicious appetizers before a championship main event.
Bader and Evans are ranked No. 4 and 5, respectively, heading into the event, according to the UFC rankings. With a win, either would be in a great position to challenge the winner of the main event for the light heavyweight strap.
Here’s a look at how the two match up statistically.
Fight Breakdown
By reputation, this is a matchup of two great wrestlers. Bader and Evans both wrestled at the Division I level in college, with Bader wrestling at Arizona State and Evans representing Michigan State.
However, only one of them truly plies their trade in the Octagon. As noted by Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics, Bader actually utilizes his ground game to control fights far more than anyone on the entire card:
Bader earned this shot against a top-five opponent by virtue of a four-fight winning streak that goes back to December 2013. It’s a win streak that has largely come from his ability to take opponents to the mat and keep them there.
According to FightMetricnumbers, Bader has opened a 20-2 advantage over his opponents in the takedown department. Combine that with his ability to maintain top control, and it’s easy to see how he’s earned four straight decisions.
In the same span of time that Bader has racked up a four-fight win streak, Evans hasn’t even stepped into the cage. A series of injuries has kept the former champion from competing in the Octagon, which has led to questions about what kind of shape Evans will be in when he steps into the cage.
Bader went to Twitter to pose the question:
Evans doesn’t think conditioning will be an issue, though. “He should know one thing: I would never get into the cage looking fat,” Evans said, per Case Keefer of the Las Vegas Sun. “But he should hope for that version of me because by him doing that, he’s messed up. He’s going to get the Rashad Evans that showed up and whipped Chael (Sonnen). Too bad for Bader.”
The Evans that defeated Sonnen in the first round still doesn’t exactly resemble the wrestler that competed at Michigan State, though. While Bader has shown that his modusoperandi is to take opponents down and keep them there, Suga has preferred to stand and trade with opponents.
He hasn’t registered multiple takedowns in any of his last four fights.
With Bader‘s proficiency on the ground, Evans is likely to turn this into a kickboxing bout as much as possible.
Prediction
Evans’ long layoff makes this a difficult fight to project. If he’s truly back in top form, he should be able to win this fight. His wrestling is still elite and his athleticism should be able to ward off Bader‘s advances.
However, if years of fighting the best the light heavyweight division has to offer and injuries have started to take their toll, Bader has an opportunity to pick up the biggest win of his career.
The important stat to hone in on here is striking defense. Bader might not be the most polished striker in the world, but he’s elusive enough that he rarely gets hit cleanly either. Given the long layoff for Evans, that will give Bader an opportunity to throw and land serious strikes of his own.
In the case of two fighters who appear to be on equal footing, the pick should be the fighter with the fewest questions. At this point, that has to be Bader. He has recent momentum on his side and could capitalize on the the opportunity to take his career to new heights.
The timing of