We know a lot and a little about Gray Maynard. We know he’s one of the best lightweights in the world—a gritty wrestler who has power in his hands and the sheer physicality that few men can match at 155 pounds. We know he’s a guy that…
We know a lot and a little about Gray Maynard.
We know he’s one of the best lightweights in the world—a gritty wrestler who has power in his hands and the sheer physicality that few men can match at 155 pounds.
We know he’s a guy that sometimes makes it hard to root for him—be it because of posturing outside of the cage or uninteresting performances inside of it.
We know he thinks he should be lightweight champion, or at least he thought he should have been until Frankie Edgar knocked him senseless in their third meeting.
Directly related to that, we know he just can’t find a way to beat Frankie Edgar.
That seems like a lot, but in actuality it really isn’t that much. At least it isn’t that much in a sport that is perhaps more results-driven than any in the world—a sport that can see you become pretty irrelevant pretty quickly if you can’t win a title after two chances in one calendar year.
Going into UFC on FX 4, where he’ll headline against the energetic Clay Guida, that seems to be the only question that matters anymore: will Gray Maynard ever be champion?
It’s easy to argue that he could be. He’s undeniably in the top three at his weight, has very nearly taken the title on two separate occasions and his nemesis from New Jersey no longer has the title that he so hungrily covets (though that could change next month).
Then again, it’s easy to argue that his window has closed, too.
He’s on the wrong side of 30 and has had his chances. He’s only going to see big names and tough guys for the rest of his career, increasing the chances he could fall out of contention. He’s gone through personal and team-based upheaval since his last fight with Edgar, and that may plague him.
There are arguments both ways, and it isn’t hard to make one side particularly convincing. Friday night will go a long way toward uncovering what Maynard’s chances are of becoming champion.
Guida is a tireless, frustrating foe in the same vein of Edgar.
Maynard is coming off his first pro loss and first ever knockout, which are two things that often change the way a fighter approaches the game. He also has to know that with names like Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis, Donald Cerrone and Gilbert Melendez all floating around out there, it won’t take much for him to be a forgotten former challenger instead of a still-important contender.
To answer the question of “will” he be a champion may be too hard to do before seeing him in action on FX. “Can” he is probably more appropriate.
Given the tools he has at his disposal, the answer there is a resounding yes if things can break his way a little.
Will he? Ask again after he goes a few rounds with Clay Guida. The answer might reveal itself quicker than you’d realize.
Clay Guida will meet Gray Maynard during the main event of UFC on FX 4 tomorrow night to help sort out the top of the UFC lightweight division. On the surface, this appears to be a fight designed to give Maynard a tough test en route to a possibl…
Clay Guida will meet Gray Maynard during the main event of UFC on FX 4 tomorrow night to help sort out the top of the UFC lightweight division.
On the surface, this appears to be a fight designed to give Maynard a tough test en route to a possible lightweight title shot. Guida hopes to rebuild momentum after he lost to Ben Henderson in November 2011, again faltering in his chance to break through to a title shot.
Sorry Guida fans, I hate to break it to you, but Maynard is likely going to have his way with the crazy-haired fighter tomorrow night. The 30-year-old won’t get past Maynard during their UFC on FX 4 headline fight but will continue to serve as an elite gatekeeper to fighters looking to work their way towards a higher ranking.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with being an elite gatekeeper because he’s always in exciting fights and isn’t an easy opponent to control. He has a great personality, an energetic fighting style and has proven to be quite durable since joining the UFC in 2006.
Being a perennial top 10 lightweight isn’t anything to be ashamed of, and if his striking game really is improving. Most lightweights looking to jump up in rank will have problems when they’re in the cage with him.
Even though he’s beaten the likes of Anthony Pettis, Takanori Gomi and Nate Diaz, I don’t think Guida is a serious UFC lightweight division contender—nor will he ever be. It’s a difficult position for him to be in because when people think of gate keepers, they tend to think of fighters who are mid-tier and can’t hang with the best of the best.
However, a “normal” gatekeeper would get handled by either Pettis or Diaz, but Guida was able to pick up wins in both cases.
Since 2007, Guida has only been finished twice—losing to Roger Huerta at The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale via rear-naked choke—and to Kenny Florian via rear-naked choke at UFC 107. He’s never been knocked out and can force opponents to suffer with his grappling ability in all rounds of the fight.
Guida is a stiff test for rising lightweight fighters, and a victory against him should help propel the fighter closer to a title shot, and a loss, as Anthony Pettis is learning, will force a climb back up the ladder.
Did that title totally blow your freakin minds?! We know it did, but for those of you who still remain on the planet Earth after reading it, prepare yourselves for a double dose of down and dirty gambling advice. Thanks to a pair of back-to-back cards and an injury curse the likes of which we’ve never seen before, this weekend’s UFC on FX 4 and UFC 147 events have just enough interesting matchups between them to help you prosper during the greatest American depression since the last great American depression, so lets do some (betting) lines!
UFC 147 Rich Frankin (-170) vs. Wanderlei Silva (+150)
Cezar Ferreira (-260) vs. Sergio Moraes (+200)
Rony Mariano Bezerra (-280) vs. Godofredo de Oliveira (+220) Mike Russow (+400) vs. Fabricio Werdum (-500)
Yuri Alcantara (+220) vs. Hacran Dias (-280) (all figures courtesy of BestFightOdds)
Thoughts…
Did that title totally blow your freakin minds?! We know it did, but for those of you who still remain on the planet Earth after reading it, prepare yourselves for a double dose of down and dirty gambling advice. Thanks to a pair of back-to-back cards and an injury curse the likes of which we’ve never seen before, this weekend’s UFC on FX 4 and UFC 147 events have just enough interesting matchups between them to help you prosper during the greatest American depression since the last great American depression, so lets do some (betting) lines!
UFC 147 Rich Frankin (-170) vs. Wanderlei Silva (+150)
Cezar Ferreira (-260) vs. Sergio Moraes (+200)
Rony Mariano Bezerra (-280) vs. Godofredo de Oliveira (+220) Mike Russow (+400) vs. Fabricio Werdum (-500)
Yuri Alcantara (+220) vs. Hacran Dias (-280) (all figures courtesy of BestFightOdds)
Thoughts…
The Main Events: Gentlemen, we’re basically looking at the greatest pair of main events that a fan could ever hope to ask for, and anyone who says otherwise doesn’t know what they’re talking about. You literally could not get us any more amped if you had an eight ball of coke, a pair of disease-free escorts, and the keys to FAO Shwarz on Christmas Eve.
The odds for those events, however, leave us a little less than enthused. Given the outcome of their first fight, combined with the fact that they are basically fighting at the same catchweight as before, it makes sense to see Franklin as a slight favorite. If either man catches the other, there’s a chance that they can finish them, but while Franklin’s chin may not be what it used to, the same goes quadruple over for Wandy. “Ace” was simply dwarfed by Forrest Griffin in his loss at UFC 126, but will have a slight reach and size advantage over “The Axe Murderer” here, so unless Wandy can manage to catch him with something early, look for Franklin to control the distance and get in and out before landing a 1-2 combo that puts Wandy’s lights out late in the second. Whether or not Franklin decides to do so with a broken arm will be up to him.
As for the lightweights, Guida looks pretty good +275, but is facing a hell of a test in Maynard. “The Bully” is both a much more powerful striker and a stronger wrestler, which doesn’t bode well for Guida’s smother heavy offense. But where Guida does hold an edge is in his cardio, which is best described as “Mario with unlimited star power.” If Guida stands any chance of winning this, it will be by dragging Maynard into the latter rounds of this five round affair, as Maynard has shown the tendency to slow as things go on, and somehow grind out a decision over him. We don’t see it happening either.
The Good Dogs: If you read this and Mike Russow’s name immediately popped into your mind, we’d ask you to sit back in your chair, take a moment to assess your life, and then have the nearest person hit you in the face really fuckin’ hard. We don’t care how far back his win streak dates (it’s 2007) or how much punishment he can absorb (lots), if the same Fabricio Werdum that mangled Roy Nelson shows up on Saturday, Russow best pray “Vai Cavalo” pisses dirty afterward, because that is the only way he is walking out of this with any sense of victory. Russow ain’t gonna be able to take Werdum down, he damn sure ain’t gonna submit him, and if he somehow manages to knock Fabricio out, I will allow one of my biggest haters to come to my home and punch me in the stomach on camera. Afterward, I will treat them to a classy seafood dinner (I’m looking at you, Carmen.)
The two best dogs are undoubtedly Ricardo Lamas and T.J. Waldburger. Although Hatsu Hioki looked levels above his UFC debut in his most recent win over Bart Palaszewski, Lamas has looked as good as any featherweight since coming to the UFC, crushing Matt Grice before choking out Cub Swanson. Waldburger, on the other hand, has shown an incredible ability to snatch a submission when the opportunity presents itself. Even though he has looked much more well rounded as of late, Ebersole has shown a weakness in the past for submissions, so a small side bet on either fighter could be worth your time. We don’t know much about the TUF Brazil finalists, being that we could barely keep up with the American version of the show this season, but we do know that the one middleweight finalist remaining, Cezar Ferreira, will be fighting a semifinalist coming in with less than week’s notice in Sergio Moraes, so he’ll likely be walking away with the glass plaque.
The Solid Picks: Say what you want about how his run on TUF 14 ended, but Steve Siler looked absolutely brilliant against Cole Miller at UFC on FX 2, battering the fellow TUF veteran and controlling the fight en route to a UD win. He’s listed as a pick ‘em against the untested and undefeated prospect Joey Gambino, but should be able to handle him. How Matt Brown is only listed as a slight favorite over a guy who was absolutely steamrolled by Erick Silva in his UFC debut is beyond us, but might be due to the fact that well, Silva has dominated all of his opponents thus far. In either case, Brown all the way.
The Trilogy Match: Considering both Spencer Fisher and Sam Stout’s inconsistency problems as of late, perhaps the odds between the two should be a bit closer. Plus, “The King” could be looking at his last fight in the octagon, so you gotta imagine he’s not going to want to leave this one in the hands of the judges. But Fisher has looked incredibly lackluster as of late, and when comparing lackluster to Stout’s simple mediocrity, we’ll take mediocrity every time. Stout by decision.
Official CagePotato parlay: Maynard + Stout + Pearson
Suggested wager for a $50 stake
$25 on the parlay
$10 on a Bezzera + Dias + Franklin parlay
$10 on Lamas
$5 on Wandy for nostalgia’s sake
UFC on FX 4 comes to you live Friday night, with fights taking place on Facebook, Fuel TV and FX. The card will be headlined by lightweight contenders Gray Maynard and Clay Guida, who will battle to move one step closer to the championship. Also o…
UFC on FX 4 comes to you live Friday night, with fights taking place on Facebook, Fuel TV and FX. The card will be headlined by lightweight contenders Gray Maynard and Clay Guida, who will battle to move one step closer to the championship.
Also on the card are a handful of fighters who are likely fighting for their jobs. These fighters have lost a couple of bouts recently and could use a win to earn job security.
Here are four fighters on the hot seat coming into UFC on FX 4.
Sorry for the delay on the fight week diary. I was up till five a.m. playing blackjack and went on a ridiculously hot run. But I’m now sitting in the Ovation Theater at the Revel Resort and first work that comes to mind is “Baller”. Seriously, this pla…
Sorry for the delay on the fight week diary. I was up till five a.m. playing blackjack and went on a ridiculously hot run. But I’m now sitting in the Ovation Theater at the Revel Resort and first work that comes to mind is “Baller”. Seriously, this place is so baller it’s crazy.
So the Revel hands down has the best wireless internet from all events I’ve had the pleasure of covering. Like it’s insane. On the docket today is a Frankie Edgar Q&A for UFC Fight Club members followed by the weigh ins.
I did get a bit lost finding the theater form the media room but that’s just because this hotel is so big. It’s impossible to state with words just how large this place is but it’s absolutely massive.
The Q&A opened with someone opening a question for Frankie with “What’s up guy?”
(Ah, the Rumbleweight Diet, or as it’s known to the general public, the Fatkins diet. Well, played, Mr. Guida.)
Just a reminder to make sure and swing by CagePotato at 4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT to catch the live weigh-ins and results for tomorrow night’s UFC on FX 4: Maynard vs. Guida event, which goes down from the Revel Casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey.
We will be liveblogging all of the action starting tomorrow at 9 p.m ET, so if your Friday is looking less than spectacular, why not spend an evening with your favorite drunken slobs?
Video and full results after the jump.
(Ah, the Rumbleweight Diet, or as it’s known to the general public, the Fatkins diet. Well, played, Mr. Guida.)
Just a reminder to make sure and swing by CagePotato at 4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT to catch the live weigh-ins and results for tomorrow night’s UFC on FX 4: Maynard vs. Guida event, which goes down from the Revel Casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey.
We will be liveblogging all of the action starting tomorrow at 9 p.m ET, so if your Friday is looking less than spectacular, why not spend an evening with your favorite drunken slobs?
-God Damn do I hate the music chosen for these events, or at least the undercards. I can deal with the chuga-chuga riffing present for the main card, but that hokey blues riff makes me want to cut off my fuggin’ ears with a spork. It’s even worse than the placement of the FOX football music on the actual broadcasts.
-Am I the only one who thinks Cub Swanson looks like the freakish offspring of Chris Bosh and Justin Timberlake?
-Either the scales are a little off, or Anthony Johnson really was handing out chicken wings backstage, because everyone seems to be on the heavier side of their allotted weight limit.
We know a lot and a little about Gray Maynard.
