Johny Hendricks vs. Stephen Thompson: Mike Drahota: There’s a likely outcome to this impromptu main event, and then there’s a second (and more unlikely) one. The first is the clear pick that sees former champion ‘Bigg Rigg’ use his NCAA Championship-level wrestling skills to grind ‘Wonderboy’ down, as that’s really the only way Thompson has
There’s a likely outcome to this impromptu main event, and then there’s a second (and more unlikely) one. The first is the clear pick that sees former champion ‘Bigg Rigg’ use his NCAA Championship-level wrestling skills to grind ‘Wonderboy’ down, as that’s really the only way Thompson has been shut down in the UFC.
The second is Thompson using his striking and range to blast ‘Bigg Rigg’ with a surprising shot and/or piecing him up with fast, relentless combos to win a huge upset. Hendricks has taken the best shots current welterweight champion Robbie Lawler could dish out, however, and I don’t think he’ll get knocked out here. I envision a fight like Hendricks’ latest win over Matt Brown, who, interestingly enough, defeated Thompson with a similar gameplan I foresee Hendricks using. ‘Bigg Rigg’ via unanimous decision.
Rory Kernaghan:
Hendricks vs. Thompson is a very interesting contrast of styles. On one hand you have the wrestling base and power striking of Hendricks, and on the other there’s ‘Wonderboy’ with his karate base and crazy kicks. Once again this is a fight that will be won and lost in the range department. The longer reach and better arsenal goes to Thompson on the outside, but Hendricks will rule this fight in short range. The weight issue for ‘Bigg Rigg’ will hopefully be a thing of the past, but a rough cut could mean a sub par performance. Providing there’s no hiccups, I see Hendricks taking a decision here.
Mike Henken:
This was a tough one to call for me, but I’m going to go with the upset here. Hendricks is a former champion with one-punch knockout power and one of the best wrestling pedigrees in the game today. Looking ripped and in shape, it appears he has left his weight cutting issues in the past, but he has tired in five-round fights before. That being said, he will be going up against the rangy “Wonderboy” Thompson, a man amongst the very best strikers in all of MMA. In my opinion, if Thompson can stop the takedown, and he has trained with former middleweight champion Chris Weidman, it’s his fight to lose. I expect him to use his length, movement, and vicious arsenal of kicks to pick up the biggest victory of his career. “Wonderboy” by fourth round TKO.
Roy Nelson vs. Jared Rosholt:
Mike Drahota:
I just can’t seem to get motivated by this fight in the co-main event slot, as fan favorite as sputtered as a one-dimensional knockout striker (who really only uses one move, a thunderous overhand right), while Rosholt is a talented enough but middling prospect in the UFC’s most boring – and slow-moving – division.
This bout certainly isn’t going to change that, and outside of a huge fight-ending [punch from ‘Big Country,’ I see Rosholt largely controlling the rotund Nelson, who’s failed against elite grapplers in losing five out of his last six, to win the decision here. Rosholt by decision is the pick.
Rory Kernaghan:
Roy Nelson vs. Jared Rosholt is a strange match to say the least, with one heavy hitting knockout artist in ‘Big Country’ and a smothering wrestler in Rosholt. The truth to this one is I feel Rosholt has no place being in the Octagon with someone of Roy’s caliber, with notable wins over some legends of the sport to his credit and a missile for a right hand. Nelson, first round KO, take that one to the bank.
Mike Henken:
Nelson has looked, well, rather awful as of late to say the least. Losing his last three bouts, it appears as if Nelson may be nearing the end of his time, and he will be facing off with a hungry Division I wrestler here in Rosholt. I wouldn’t be surprised to Rosholt to tire Nelson, who has never had the best cardio, and grind out a victory, but “Big Country” does possess that one game-changing tool: the right hand from hell. With the ability to put a man to sleep at any given point, I think we see one more bomb from “Big Country” here. Nelson by second round KO.
‘Rumble’ Johnson vs. Ryan Bader: Mike Drahota: The fight seems to be flying under the radar and drawing little attention in the middle of the haphazard UFC 196 fiasco this week, and also perhaps due to the perceivably bland Bader’s own questionable capability of promoting the main event of a big FOX card. ‘Darth’ has
The fight seems to be flying under the radar and drawing little attention in the middle of the haphazard UFC 196 fiasco this week, and also perhaps due to the perceivably bland Bader’s own questionable capability of promoting the main event of a big FOX card. ‘Darth’ has won five straight following his one-sided UFC 192 win over former champ Rashad Evans, but they’ve all been by decision.
Across the Octagon will stand Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson, a monstrous light heavyweight who could seriously be the hardest hitter in MMA history. Johnson has been nothing but dominant since returning to the UFC, that is, except for his disappointing loss to current light heavyweight champ Daniel Cormier at UFC 187. The champ was able to weather ‘Rumble’s’ initial storm to grind him out with takedowns and ground damage to eventually win the fight by submission; Bader’s head coach Aaron Simpson seems to be ready to do the same after calling ‘Rumble’ a quitter in the press.
I don’t think that will happen, however, and those comments could only serve to motivate ‘Rumble.’ True, he was smothered by Cormier, but ‘DC’ is one of the best mat wizards to ever compete in MMA, and Bader has definitely faltered in the face of elite competition before. I’m taking Johnson by first round T/KO here.
Rory Kernaghan:
The main event of UFC on FOX 18 could prove to be very influential to the immediate future of the light-heavyweight title picture, a ladder that ‘Rumble’ successfully climbed as far as his UFC 187 title fight with Daniel Cormier. Interestingly enough, I feel that the crushing loss to the similarly grinding ‘DC’ will help ‘AJ’ against Ryan Bader. As mentioned, ‘Darth’ has a heavy wrestling base, but has also looked vastly improved in the stand-up. It’s obvious Johnson has that lead in his limbs, but don’t forget it’s the more technical strikers that Bader has fumbled against in the past, aside from Glover Teixeira.
This fight will be won depending on whether Bader can get a takedown, and in recent fights, there’s not much to suggest he won’t be able to. That said, I’m gambling on a much more matured ‘AJ’ to have worked hard on his wrestling, and to make Bader look amateur in the stand up. ‘Rumble’ by first round KO.
Mike Henken:
Bader has been on a tear as of late, winning five straight bouts with vastly improved striking, a decorated wrestling background, and strong submission skills to prove a tough test for anyone in the division. ‘Darth’ could provide similar problems for Johnson, who has struggled against grapplers in the past. That being said, “Rumble” is one of the most feared strikers in the sport today. I feel as if his athleticism, speed, and power will prove to be too much for “Darth”. Johnson by first round knockout.
Read to the next page to find out who we picked to win the heavyweight co-main event….
(You’ll never go wrong betting on a guy who looks like a stunt-double for a low-budget Jamaican remake of ‘Indiana Jones.’ / Photo via MMAFighting.com)
Like many experts in our field do, we’re going to break down these UFC on FOX 10 main card fights in whichever way we damn please, spitting out our rapid-fire predictions by leaning heavily on pre-determined notions and gut feelings. Read on, and be sure to visit our “Henderson vs. Thomson” liveblog, which kicks off tonight at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT.
Benson Henderson vs. Josh Thomson
The biggest fight on this card could be the most entertaining as well — unless Benson Henderson decides to do the right thing and use his superior grappling skills to make this an ugly, dominant fight. But Thomson isn’t too shabby himself when it comes to laying and praying himself; his win over K.J. Noons before getting a title shot in Strikeforce was a prime example of what can happen when one partner is just not in the mood to cuddle.
So, maybe it’s going to come down to striking, and unless Thomson lands a game-changing head-kick like he did against Diaz, Bendo should prove to be the quicker striker who throws more when it comes to volume. Anthony Pettis will surely be watching with a close eye, because if Thomson outlasts Henderson, they have a date. And if Henderson wins and T.J. Grant is still concussed, he’s got his own third date against Pettis. And you know what they say about third dates…
Winner: Benson Henderson
Method: Unanimous Decision (5 Rounds)
(You’ll never go wrong betting on a guy who looks like a stunt-double for a low-budget Jamaican remake of ‘Indiana Jones.’ / Photo via MMAFighting.com)
Like many experts in our field do, we’re going to break down these UFC on FOX 10 main card fights in whichever way we damn please, spitting out our rapid-fire predictions by leaning heavily on pre-determined notions and gut feelings. Read on, and be sure to visit our “Henderson vs. Thomson” liveblog, which kicks off tonight at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT.
Benson Henderson vs. Josh Thomson
The biggest fight on this card could be the most entertaining as well — unless Benson Henderson decides to do the right thing and use his superior grappling skills to make this an ugly, dominant fight. But Thomson isn’t too shabby himself when it comes to laying and praying himself; his win over K.J. Noons before getting a title shot in Strikeforce was a prime example of what can happen when one partner is just not in the mood to cuddle.
So, maybe it’s going to come down to striking, and unless Thomson lands a game-changing head-kick like he did against Diaz, Bendo should prove to be the quicker striker who throws more when it comes to volume. Anthony Pettis will surely be watching with a close eye, because if Thomson outlasts Henderson, they have a date. And if Henderson wins and T.J. Grant is still concussed, he’s got his own third date against Pettis. And you know what they say about third dates…
Winner: Benson Henderson
Method: Unanimous Decision (5 Rounds)
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Stipe Miocic
Truth be told, we’re sort of in disbelief that the same guy who was shoveled out of the Octagon by Randy Couture in 2007 could be up for championship consideration in the year 2014. On the other hand, we also don’t think that Stipe Miocic is quite ready to stand out in the heavyweight title picture at the moment.
This one’s a tough draw. On one hand, you’ve got this savage Brazilian caveman ready to eat the camera before getting into his opponent’s face, against a too-quick-for-his-size potential freak athlete heavyweight with better movement.
Gonzaga does have the ability to end a fight with one shot, and he’s been looking good doing it. (The guys he’s been beating lately haven’t been total cans, either.) We might as well put our cash on the comeback kid…or in this case, the fighter that would most resemble a Street Fighter character with a perm.
Martins did make Daron Cruickshank look like an AXS TV Fights Preliminary Card curtain-jerker in his last fight, and he’s undefeated in six. Still, if Cerrone channels his inner Millennium-circa Jerome Le Banner properly, the jiu-jitsu specialist is probably toast.
Oh, yes…these types of fights. Whenever we get a grappler vs. striker clash of styles, things end up turning out one way or the other — grappler takes down striker, drubbing him on the mat for 15 minutes, or striker is somehow puzzled as to why wrestler thinks he can stand with him, hence the brutal knockout finish for the former. And that’s how much this match deserves in terms of our thought-provoking analysis.
But since we have to pick one side or the other (and since we clearly have a soft-spot for the old-schoolers), we’ll predict that grizzled vet Stephens will continue his unlikely rebirth at featherweight streak, and put Elkins down for a nice nap.
Winner: Jeremy Stephens
Method: KO/TKO (Round 1)
See any of these fights differently? Shoot us your own predictions in the comments section. Just remember, you’re not allowed to think before making your picks. It’s the CagePotato way.
(2014: The year that Dana White buys this dog. For Bjorn Rebney. Too soon?)
When former CagePotato.com contributor Jason Moles announced his retirement in 2013, it appeared that there wouldn’t be a “Crazy Enough to be True” predictions column for 2014. Rather than let the opportunity to make outlandish assumptions about the state of our favorite sport pass us up, we’ve decided to offer our wildest ideas in the form of a CagePotato Roundtable. Read on for our picks, share yours in the comments section, and please continue to send your ideas for future CagePotato Roundtable topics to[email protected].
The problem is, none of these upcoming markets have the talent pool available to produce a world champion in the foreseeable future. Or a top contender. Or a fighter who could credibly compete anywhere on a pay-per-view main card. That’s why I’m predicting that 2014 will see the unveiling of individual UFC titles for countries/continents. I mean, Vitor Belfort is already the middleweight champion of Brazil, right? They might as well give him a belt and make it official.
(2014: The year that Dana White buys this dog. For Bjorn Rebney. Too soon?)
When former CagePotato.com contributor Jason Moles announced his retirement in 2013, it appeared that there wouldn’t be a “Crazy Enough to be True” predictions column for 2014. Rather than let the opportunity to make outlandish assumptions about the state of our favorite sport pass us up, we’ve decided to offer our wildest ideas in the form of a CagePotato Roundtable. Read on for our picks, share yours in the comments section, and please continue to send your ideas for future CagePotato Roundtable topics to[email protected].
The problem is, none of these upcoming markets have the talent pool available to produce a world champion in the foreseeable future. Or a top contender. Or a fighter who could credibly compete anywhere on a pay-per-view main card. That’s why I’m predicting that 2014 will see the unveiling of individual UFC titles for countries/continents. I mean, Vitor Belfort is already the middleweight champion of Brazil, right? They might as well give him a belt and make it official.
Case in point: TUF Chinadebuted last month. Coached by a UFC near-washout and a guy you’ve never heard of, the season will produce a completely irrelevant winner, who’s only fit to beat up other irrelevant curtain-jerkers from countries that aren’t the U.S., Brazil, Canada, or England. While the novelty of seeing native Chinese fighters (or Turkish fighters, or Polish fighters, etc.) will get local fans tuning in, eventually the UFC will have to throw these people a bone to keep them happy, because watching your home country’s fighters get smashed as soon as they face legitimate competition isn’t fun.
And so, the UFC will do the smart thing and have these guys/gals fight exclusively within their own borders for secondary titles. And maybe, if one of these regional champs goes on a long win streak, he/she will be called up to the prelims of a UFC on FOX Sports 1 card, where you might actually get to see them compete. Until then, us North Americans will only be able to watch the UFC’s new regional superstars on that digital subscription service thingy they’re selling, and if you think we’re coughing up any more money to the UFC for that bullshit, you are out of your got-damn mind.
It is well known that UFC President Dana White is a loose cannon when he is in front of a camera or a microphone. The “Baldfather” has no filter and basically shoots from the hip no matter the topic, the fighter, or the reporter in his crosshairs. He has taken some heat for profanity-laced rants in the past, but there has never been any real punishment from the Fertitta brothers (at least not publicly).
After Georges St. Pierre’s somewhat cryptic and confusing comments with Joe Rogan following his UFC 167 victory, Dana White launched into a diatribe at the post-fight press conference saying that GSP owed the UFC something more. Fast forward a day or two and Lorenzo Fertitta backtracked on White’s words by basically apologizing (even though he never actually said “Sorry”). In the past, Fertitta has never come to cover White but after the amount of flack being thrown because of White’s comments, it was evident that some things needed to be clarified.
Though White’s obscenity-filled tirades have been far and few between as of late, it is only a matter of time before Mount Dana erupts. When he does — because of falling ratings, a network deal that has not produced as expected or a slew of other factors — I believe that the Fertittas will in fact publicly chastise White. Whether it is a fine or a suspension or just a good old fashioned public tongue lashing, White will finally be the one on the other end of a heated lecture (and he will have earned it after the years of insensitive comments he has made).
Between 2010 and 2011, Matt Brown went 1-4 in the octagon, with all of those losses coming via second round submission. Although not one member of the MMA media dared say it to his face, they had all but written him off as just another slightly above-average TUF alum who couldn’t hack it in the big leagues. “Get out of here!”they’d shout once he had turned his back, “Why can’t you just go back to where you came from?
I don’t know if Brown wished upon a shooting star or sold his soul to the SKOAL Gods in return for Jax fists, but something amazing happened when he reemerged in 2012. Something…supernatural. Come to think of it, it was probably voodoo.
In the past two years, Matt Brown has gone 6-0 in the octagon with 5 TKOs. Five. Brown has fought like a man possessed (by voodoo), scoring wins over young guns (Jordan Mein), crafty veterans (Mike Swick), and previously undefeated hype machines (Stephen Thompson) alike. His last performance against Mike Pyle was, by definition, a flawless victory. Of all the career comebacks we witnessed in 2013, Brown’s was far-and-away the most impressive, if only because of the utter mediocrity that preceded it. In fact, of the nominees we listed in our “Most Unexpected Career Comebacks” roundtable last March, only Brown and Cub Swanson have managed to remain undefeated to this day. No, GSP *doesn’t* count, because he was defeated by both Johny Hendricks and old age.
What is the point of all this hyperbolic, redundant, and mostly fabricated backstory? Only that Brown has entered the prime of his career and is destroying whoever is placed before him with a combination of Zen-like tranquility and Pedro Lopez-like brutality. The dude is untouchable, “Immortal” you might even say (*crickets*). Like Bernie in Weekend at Bernie’s 2 when conga music is playing (which again, voodoo). And now that GSP has decided to step away from the sport, the UFC’s welterweight division has transformed from a grappler’s purgatory into a brawler’s paradise. Lawler vs. Hendricks will most likely be a slugfest for the ages, and when title fights are suddenly being decided by who can stand and trade leather the longest, Brown is as good a candidate as any to get that gold.
Believe it or not, things are actually much worse for TNA Impact! Wrestling than they were merely two months ago when I first wrote about their sad state of affairs. As in, “holding shows in high school gymnasiums” worse. I firmly believe that 2014 will be the year that this company finally kicks the bucket, to the apathy of nearly every wrestling fan on the planet. And the wrestlers proudly featured in the company’s final pay-per-view main event when this happens? Don’t hold your breath waiting for one of them to be AJ Styles. Same goes with Jeff Jarrett. Ditto Samoa Joe, Christopher Daniels, Abyss, and anyone else whose name was once synonymous with the company.
No, Rampage Jackson and Tito Ortiz will be the ones headlining TNA Impact! Wrestling’s final pay-per-view.
Yeah, I know how everyone this side of Parts Unknown rolled their eyes at Rampage and Tito’s appearances in TNA last year, but the company is losing so much money and has so few wrestlers left that I think Viacom sends these two once-strong pay-per-view draws back to TNA Impact! Wrestling as a last-ditch effort to find people willing to buy a TNA pay-per-view. Sure, even the most brain-dead among us *looks directly at Jared…who is holding up a mirror. Well played.* can see the holes in this logic, but desperate times call for desperate measures; this is especially true when you consider that Viacom brought in Rampage and Tito to headline a pay-per-view in the first place. This will obviously end badly — even for a company that considers 50,000 buys a smashing success — leading TNA Impact! to close its doors shortly afterwards.
Sure, the idea of Rampage Jackson and Tito Ortiz headlining the final TNA Impact! Wrestling pay-per-view is completely ludicrous, but if you expect anything different from Dixie Carter, you’ve clearly never actually watched one of her company’s shows. Oh how I envy your ignorance.
Frustrated by dwindling PPV buys, Dana White starts hinting at “big fucking changes, like, huge” coming to Fox. Speculation abounds.
Zuffa announces that it is resurrecting Strikeforce for a new weekly primetime show on FS1. In a stunning move, Scott Coker returns to captain the ship, and “Wednesday Night Strikeforce” is born. His decision to include occasional kickboxing bouts in the broadcasts is hailed as visionary, as “WNS” quickly outstrips viewership numbers from the TUF lead-in. Meanwhile, UFC PPV cards are cut back to eight per year, and buy rates promptly skyrocket.
Coker leads the fight for better pay of fighters, proposing a tiered salary system that guarantees a minimum $48K to fighters under the Strikeforce banner. He suggests a format change to the now-ubiquitous Ultimate Fighter program, which now sports no less than eight spinoffs across the world. His idea, a weekly interview and highlight show recounting the various incarnations of TUF worldwide, is embraced by the blogosphere, but roundly rejected by White, as is the salary gambit.
Tensions between Coker and White continue to mount for the remainder of 2014. In December, Dana White and Scott Coker both start hinting at “big fucking changes, like, huge” coming to Zuffa. Speculation abounds.
Have your own “crazy enough to be true” predictions for 2014? You know what to do.
(PRIDE t-shirt > tailored suit. Always. You should know this by now, Rory. / Photo via MMAFighting)
The UFC’s latest pay-per-view spectacular goes down tomorrow night in Las Vegas, and we’ll be liveblogging the main card action beginning at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT. To help get you in the mood, CagePotato founding editor Ben Goldstein and staff writer Jared Jones have reunited for a bullshit session about all of UFC 167‘s most important themes. Or at least some of them. Mostly we’ll be posting GIFs and talking about online gambling, like usual. Enjoy…
You don’t actually believe Johny Hendricks has a shot here, do you?
BG: No sir, I do not. I really don’t see how this fight plays out any differently than GSP’s second fight against Josh Koscheck, to be honest. Yes, Hendricks can knock you out with his (generously telegraphed) left hand if you stand in front of him, but he’s just not a technically sound striker, and St. Pierre won’t be standing in front of him except for the brief moments that precede a blast double-leg takedown. Yes, Hendricks is a skilled wrestler, but as it applies to MMA, St. Pierre is a much, much better wrestler.
GSP will spend all five rounds out-striking Hendricks and scoring the occasional takedown just to prove that he can, running up his already absurd statistical records in the process. In fact, I’m so sure that this will be the outcome that I’m not even looking forward to this fight all that much. Jared may have given this one a “coolbeans!” in this week’s GIF-Ranking column, but to me, GSP vs. Hendricks is nothing more than Matt Hughes’s ambivalent shrug.
JJ: Did Rudy Ruettiger have “a shot” at making the dress roster of the 1975 Notre Dame Fighting Irish? Did Michael Oher have “a shot” at rising from the ashes of a broken home to eventually be drafted in the 2009 NFL draft?! DID KIRK GIBSON, DOWN TWO DECENT LEGS AND STOMACH RIDDLED WITH THE FLU, HAVE “A SHOT” AT PINCH-HITTING A 9th INNING, WALK OFF HOME RUN IN GAME 1 OF THE 1988 WORLD SERIES?!!
Matt Serra has arms the size of Baby Sinclair, yet he was able to touch the chin of GSP. Johny Hendricks, on the other hand, punches like a Super Saiyan Goku on steroids. So yes, Ben, I think he has “a shot.”
(PRIDE t-shirt > tailored suit. Always. You should know this by now, Rory. / Photo via MMAFighting)
The UFC’s latest pay-per-view spectacular goes down tomorrow night in Las Vegas, and we’ll be liveblogging the main card action beginning at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT. To help get you in the mood, CagePotato founding editor Ben Goldstein and staff writer Jared Jones have reunited for a bullshit session about all of UFC 167‘s most important themes. Or at least some of them. Mostly we’ll be posting GIFs and talking about online gambling, like usual. Enjoy…
You don’t actually believe Johny Hendricks has a shot here, do you?
BG: No sir, I do not. I really don’t see how this fight plays out any differently than GSP’s second fight against Josh Koscheck, to be honest. Yes, Hendricks can knock you out with his (generously telegraphed) left hand if you stand in front of him, but he’s just not a technically sound striker, and St. Pierre won’t be standing in front of him except for the brief moments that precede a blast double-leg takedown. Yes, Hendricks is a skilled wrestler, but as it applies to MMA, St. Pierre is a much, much better wrestler.
GSP will spend all five rounds out-striking Hendricks and scoring the occasional takedown just to prove that he can, running up his already absurd statistical records in the process. In fact, I’m so sure that this will be the outcome that I’m not even looking forward to this fight all that much. Jared may have given this one a “coolbeans!” in this week’s GIF-Ranking column, but to me, GSP vs. Hendricks is nothing more than Matt Hughes’s ambivalent shrug.
JJ: Did Rudy Ruettiger have “a shot” at making the dress roster of the 1975 Notre Dame Fighting Irish? Did Michael Oher have “a shot” at rising from the ashes of a broken home to eventually be drafted in the 2009 NFL draft?! DID KIRK GIBSON, DOWN TWO DECENT LEGS AND STOMACH RIDDLED WITH THE FLU, HAVE “A SHOT” AT PINCH-HITTING A 9th INNING, WALK OFF HOME RUN IN GAME 1 OF THE 1988 WORLD SERIES?!!
Matt Serra has arms the size of Baby Sinclair, yet he was able to touch the chin of GSP. Johny Hendricks, on the other hand, punches like a Super Saiyan Goku on steroids. So yes, Ben, I think he has “a shot.”
BG: To be perfectly clear, I’m not a Rory hater. I think he’s a phenomenally talented fighter, and in general, I have nothing against creepy men wearing trenchcoats as long as they stay away from the park where I take my kid. That being said, Robbie Lawler represents one of the two greatest career-resurgence stories of 2013 — the other being Doug “The Rhino” Marshall, obviously — and yeah, I’ve got a soft spot for him.
Watching “Ruthless” return to the UFC as a welterweight and smoke Josh Koscheck and Bobby Voelker in short order has been a treat for us old-school fans. If he knocks out MacDonald, I’ll be as giddy as Dafoe in the backseat. Plus, there’s something that bothers me about GSP hinting that he’ll leave the welterweight division so Rory can take over. That’s just not how it works, dude.
Please construct a parlay bet for UFC 167 that’s 1) very profitable, and 2) not a guaranteed loser.
BG: It would be my pleasure. A $10 parlay on St. Pierre + Sonnen + Lawler + Cerrone + Perez + Campuzano would bring you back $1,356.21 in profit on BetUs. GSP and Erik Perez are locks, if you ask me. Chael Sonnen — who ran through Shogun in one round in his last fight — could do the same thing to a struggling, under-motivated Rashad Evans, and Robbie Lawler has the power to put Rory MacDonald to sleep with a single punch. The Cerrone vs. Dunham match is a pick-‘em, but I think Cowboy’s due for a good night. Meanwhile, Will Campuzano is a stiff underdog against Sergio Pettis (and rightly so), but Showtime’s little brother has never set foot inside the Octagon, and he’s never beaten anybody you’ve heard of. When the hype-train goes one way, your cash should go the other.
JJ: $100 on Sonnen-MacDonald-Elliot-Cerrone-Ebersole nets $2,728.38 in return. I call it the “Pasty Parlay Perfecto.” I wanted to include Ed Herman in it, but come on.
Which fight on this card will exceed expectations, and which one will fall short?
JJ: When Will Campuzano loses, he does so in dramatic fashion. The man has been body shot TKO’d by Eddie Wineland (no shame there), choked out by Damacio Page in just over a minute (LOL!), and is perhaps best known for falling victim to the only pillory choke submission in UFC history. I expect Sergio Pettis to do nothing less than flying tornado kick his head into the third row come Saturday night.
As I’ve previously mentioned, Sonnen vs. Evans unfortunately seems like it’s going to be a real piss break of a co-main event if I’ve ever seen one before. Rashad just isn’t fighting like the guy who sent Chuck Liddell into orbit anymore, simply put — he’s fighting timid, he’s fighting gun-shy. And despite the persona he tries to pass off on us cretins, Chael Sonnen really isn’t all that bad of a guy in reality. That he’s completely refrained from referring to Evans as a cocky, fat, sewer-dwelling shyster should tell you all you need to know about how this fight will go down, which is to say, like a light sparring session between two friends who have nowhere to go in the light heavyweight division…
BG: Indiana-based veteran Anthony “The Recipe” Lapsley is making his UFC debut on the Facebook prelims tomorrow, and while most of you only know him as one half of a classic double-knockout, he’s actually a dangerous grappler who could turn in a memorable ground war against Jason High — and maybe even snatch up the Submission of the Night bonus.
As for the fight that will fall short? Not that Koscheck vs. Woodley has a ton of hype behind it, but it is a main card fight, and it could very well be awful. Coming off a loss, Tyrson Woodley might revert back to his wall-and-stall roots just to secure a victory. Josh Koscheck is coming off of two losses, and could be playing it safe as well. (Now that I think of it, none of the fights on the main card are guaranteed to be awesome.) My prediction: This fight will stink up the joint, and Donald Cerrone will angrily spit dip-juice backstage and mutter “I told y’all so.”
(The bourgeoisie and the proletariat shed their blood for the world’s scraps, while a shadowy bald figure in the background pulls the strings. Can’t you see? WE’RE ALL JUST PAWNS IN THE GAME, MAN. / Photo via Facebook.com/MMAFighting)
UFC 167 is shaping up to be — on paper, at least — one of the most loaded events of the year. This isn’t a surprise; the UFC marks its 20th anniversary this month and does so with what should be a sufficient amount of bombast. Headlining Saturday’s festivities will be the UFC’s reigning king of pay-per-view, Georges St-Pierre. His opponent is Johny Hendricks, a decorated collegiate wrestler with a left hand that will lay waste to whatever unfortunate being happens to lie in its path. There can be no doubt that Hendricks, in this sense, might pose the single greatest threat that GSP has faced in his MMA career. He might also be the easiest matchup GSP has faced in years.
Against St-Pierre, Hendricks epitomizes the idea of a “puncher’s chance.” He has virtually no advantage over GSP except power — power so substantial that the threat of it seems to have obscured glaring weaknesses that St-Pierre is particularly gifted at exploiting. Granted, his power is impressive. If he hits GSP flush with his left hand, he can end the fight in an instant. He should, for the first few rounds at least, be capable of keeping the fight on the feet. He’d better, because he has little chance of victory on the ground. His bottom game is solely focused on returning to his feet, and he has not shown the ability to threaten from top position. Recall how easily and how often Carlos Condit, a well-rounded fighter who does not possess extraordinary wrestling ability, was able to return to his feet in Hendricks’ last fight. No, if Hendricks wants to win he needs to look for the kill shot.
Here’s where Hendricks runs into problems. If he lands his left hand, the fight is his. The tricky part is actually landing it. His two best knockouts — against Jon Fitch and Martin Kampmann — came against opposition with terrible footwork. Hendricks can cover ground extraordinarily fast; backing up against him doesn’t work well at all. Even if he misses the left hand, by pushing opponents straight back they invariably end up against the fence. This is where Hendricks does his best wrestling; against Condit, every single one of his takedowns came after he backed Condit up with left hands and put him against the fence. In some of his previous fights, Hendricks has relied on pushing opponents into the fence and grinding out (sometimes questionable) decisions. It’s an effective strategy, so long as he’s the superior wrestler and his opponents back up in a straight line.
Unfortunately for Hendricks, neither qualifier applies to this fight.
(The bourgeoisie and the proletariat shed their blood for the world’s scraps, while a shadowy bald figure in the background pulls the strings. Can’t you see? WE’RE ALL JUST PAWNS IN THE GAME, MAN. / Photo via Facebook.com/MMAFighting)
UFC 167 is shaping up to be — on paper, at least — one of the most loaded events of the year. This isn’t a surprise; the UFC marks its 20th anniversary this month and does so with what should be a sufficient amount of bombast. Headlining Saturday’s festivities will be the UFC’s reigning king of pay-per-view, Georges St-Pierre. His opponent is Johny Hendricks, a decorated collegiate wrestler with a left hand that will lay waste to whatever unfortunate being happens to lie in its path. There can be no doubt that Hendricks, in this sense, might pose the single greatest threat that GSP has faced in his MMA career. He might also be the easiest matchup GSP has faced in years.
Against St-Pierre, Hendricks epitomizes the idea of a “puncher’s chance.” He has virtually no advantage over GSP except power — power so substantial that the threat of it seems to have obscured glaring weaknesses that St-Pierre is particularly gifted at exploiting. Granted, his power is impressive. If he hits GSP flush with his left hand, he can end the fight in an instant. He should, for the first few rounds at least, be capable of keeping the fight on the feet. He’d better, because he has little chance of victory on the ground. His bottom game is solely focused on returning to his feet, and he has not shown the ability to threaten from top position. Recall how easily and how often Carlos Condit, a well-rounded fighter who does not possess extraordinary wrestling ability, was able to return to his feet in Hendricks’ last fight. No, if Hendricks wants to win he needs to look for the kill shot.
Here’s where Hendricks runs into problems. If he lands his left hand, the fight is his. The tricky part is actually landing it. His two best knockouts — against Jon Fitch and Martin Kampmann — came against opposition with terrible footwork. Hendricks can cover ground extraordinarily fast; backing up against him doesn’t work well at all. Even if he misses the left hand, by pushing opponents straight back they invariably end up against the fence. This is where Hendricks does his best wrestling; against Condit, every single one of his takedowns came after he backed Condit up with left hands and put him against the fence. In some of his previous fights, Hendricks has relied on pushing opponents into the fence and grinding out (sometimes questionable) decisions. It’s an effective strategy, so long as he’s the superior wrestler and his opponents back up in a straight line.
Unfortunately for Hendricks, neither qualifier applies to this fight. While he may well be the superior amateur wrestler, he’s just not as good at wrestling in an MMA context as Georges St-Pierre. While Hendricks’ takedowns are dependent upon the clinch against the cage, St-Pierre can shoot doubles, singles, transition between the two, use the cage, switch to back control, maintain top position on the ground and do all of this while fluidly alternating between his striking and grappling. And while his takedown defense is also superb, don’t be surprised if GSP doesn’t have to use it much. Unlike Carlos Condit and Martin Kampmann, St-Pierre doesn’t back straight up. He’s excellent at maintaining distance between himself and his opponent, closing it only when he wants to attack and effectively circling out when he’s pressured. The only meaningful shot landed against him in recent fights was a deceptive headkick thrown by Condit; Hendricks doesn’t possess the same diversity of striking technique or the element of surprise that enabled Condit’s kick to be successful.
Hendricks success in striking is startling despite his utter predictability. All it takes to avoid his left hand is to circle towards his right, which he conveniently drops whenever he throws his left. When St-Pierre fought Josh Koscheck — another high-level college wrestler with a powerful overhand — his entire strategy was to circle to Koscheck’s right and throw a counter jab that possessed as much beauty as it did power. Despite circling into Koscheck’s power hand, St-Pierre emerged unhurt while Koscheck’s orbital bone was broken in the first round and further punished over the next four. Against Hendricks, St-Pierre has the opportunity to employ the same strategy, only with less risk as he’ll be circling away from Hendricks’ power hand.
It’s hard to see just how Hendricks would adjust to this. Of course, it’s entirely possible he could make the necessary improvements in a relatively short amount of time; it’s been done before. But it’s also extraordinarily unlikely. As things stand, Hendricks seems to be an opponent tailor-made for GSP — legitimately threatening, but vulnerable in ways St-Pierre is primed to exploit. There is also the question of stamina; we know GSP can go five rounds. Can Hendricks? Ultimately, this — like virtually all of his other fights — is St-Pierre’s to lose. Expecting a finish from GSP seems like wishful thinking at this point, as much due to his lack of finishing power as his opponents’ durability. So while it may not be the most appropriate grand finale for the card that celebrates the unexpected, thrilling, violent rise of the UFC over the past two decades, expect yet another dominant decision from the champion rooted in sound strategy, patience and overwhelming skill.
