Tag: UFC previews

Ben vs. Jared — ‘UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Sonnen’ Edition


(Poster via Nixsons.com)

With a UFC event scheduled for this weekend that’s actually worth watching, it’s time for another installment of Ben vs. Jared, in which CagePotato’s founding editor Ben Goldstein and long-suffering staff writer Jared Jones go cabeza-a-cabeza to discuss some of this card’s major themes. For example: Is Shogun vs. Sonnen the most pointless match on the UFC Fight Night 26 main card? Is it safe to board the Matt Brown hype train? Will Joe Lauzon make history again? And is it Yuri or Iuri? Prepare for serious business…

So, Shogun vs. Sonnen at light-heavyweight — what’s at stake here? Anything? Anything at all?

BG: I think Shogun’s career is at stake, for one thing. If he loses to a one-dimensional middleweight (no offense, Chael), it’ll drop his UFC win percentage below .500, and bump him out of the UFC light-heavyweight contender picture, maybe permanently. He’ll enter that twilight stage of his career where he’s just showing up for “fun fights,” still famous enough to headline smaller UFC events in Brazil, but no longer part of the overall conversation. Or, he can just retire and run a gas station like his brother. Neither scenario is ideal, but the one that doesn’t require him to sustain traumatic brain injuries seems a little healthier.

For Chael, this fight is more of a no-lose proposition, just like his previous light-heavyweight appearance against Jon Jones. A win against Shogun would be a career highlight, and a loss just means he goes back to middleweight where he belongs, for a battle against Wanderlei Silva that he’s already trying to hype up. Sonnen has already exited the title picture in two different weight-classes, but I don’t even think that matters to him much anymore. Whether he’s shouting behind a FOX Sports broadcast desk or cutting promos after a fight, the man’s just content to have a microphone.

JJ: Fuuuuuuck no. “Out of the light heavyweight picture?” Shogun has been out of the light-heavyweight picture since the current champion put him out of the light heavyweight picture at UFC 128, and I say that as a Shogun fan. The fact is, Shogun can’t stay healthy, he can’t put a win streak together, and his BADBOY tights are getting more constrictive by the day. Training with Freddie Roach may prolong Rua’s career a year or two longer than he would have lasted without it, but Shogun has got to be about the oldest 31-year-old in MMA. He was just used as a stepping stone for Alexander Gustafsson (unless you honestly thought the UFC was setting him up to be slaughtered by Jones again), so as far as I’m concerned, he IS in the “fun fights” part of his career. Again, Shogun fan talking here.


(Poster via Nixsons.com)

With a UFC event scheduled for this weekend that’s actually worth watching, it’s time for another installment of Ben vs. Jared, in which CagePotato’s founding editor Ben Goldstein and long-suffering staff writer Jared Jones go cabeza-a-cabeza to discuss some of this card’s major themes. For example: Is Shogun vs. Sonnen the most pointless match on the UFC Fight Night 26 main card? Is it safe to board the Matt Brown hype train? Will Joe Lauzon make history again? And is it Yuri or Iuri? Prepare for serious business…

So, Shogun vs. Sonnen at light-heavyweight — what’s at stake here? Anything? Anything at all?

BG: I think Shogun’s career is at stake, for one thing. If he loses to a one-dimensional middleweight (no offense, Chael), it’ll drop his UFC win percentage below .500, and bump him out of the UFC light-heavyweight contender picture, maybe permanently. He’ll enter that twilight stage of his career where he’s just showing up for “fun fights,” still famous enough to headline smaller UFC events in Brazil, but no longer part of the overall conversation. Or, he can just retire and run a gas station like his brother. Neither scenario is ideal, but the one that doesn’t require him to sustain traumatic brain injuries seems a little healthier.

For Chael, this fight is more of a no-lose proposition, just like his previous light-heavyweight appearance against Jon Jones. A win against Shogun would be a career highlight, and a loss just means he goes back to middleweight where he belongs, for a battle against Wanderlei Silva that he’s already trying to hype up. Sonnen has already exited the title picture in two different weight-classes, but I don’t even think that matters to him much anymore. Whether he’s shouting behind a FOX Sports broadcast desk or cutting promos after a fight, the man’s just content to have a microphone.

JJ: Fuuuuuuck no. “Out of the light heavyweight picture?” Shogun has been out of the light-heavyweight picture since the current champion put him out of the light heavyweight picture at UFC 128, and I say that as a Shogun fan. The fact is, Shogun can’t stay healthy, he can’t put a win streak together, and his BADBOY tights are getting more constrictive by the day. Training with Freddie Roach may prolong Rua’s career a year or two longer than he would have lasted without it, but Shogun has got to be about the oldest 31-year-old in MMA. He was just used as a stepping stone for Alexander Gustafsson (unless you honestly thought the UFC was setting him up to be slaughtered by Jones again), so as far as I’m concerned, he IS in the “fun fights” part of his career. Again, Shogun fan talking here.

Don’t get me wrong, I purchased my tickets to “Fight Night” the day they went on sale, because the chance to see a legend like Shogun (among others) throw down before I die is something that is simply too good to pass up. But there’s nothing at stake here other than our entertainment, which I’m sure that Shogun and Sonnen will deliver on like they always do. Shogun is a big enough draw and performs well enough even when he’s off his game to continue fighting mid-to-upper tier guys while occasionally picking up wins until the UFC forces him to stop. His fight with Sonnen is no different, which is why I’ll just be cheering for a good fight while trying not to spill a drop of my $10 cup of Sam Adams come Saturday.

Somehow, Matt Brown has put together one of the most impressive win streaks of any non-champion in the UFC. If he beats Mike Pyle, will we have to start considering him an elite-level welterweight? And how far away would he be from a title shot if that happens?

JJ: At this point, I have no idea what to think about Matt Brown. Honestly, I’m starting to ponder the likelihood that some soul selling is behind his recent run of, well, not luck but something close to it. Three years ago, he was getting submitted by everyone who possessed a decent guillotine, and now he’s on a five-fight killing spree including a beatdown of the highly-touted Jordan Mein? (Don’t. Use. Scanners. Gif.).

The bad news is this: As was the case with Mark Hunt, Matt Brown’s improbable run is going to come to a screeching halt in the near future — specifically, the next time he faces an elite wrestler with a decent chin and good submissions. The good news is that I don’t think Mike Pyle, who is also enjoying some unexpected success as of late, is the man to do it. My prediction: Matt Brown by…murder. Then I say give him the Carlos Condit/Martin Kampmann winner. And as far as naming him an “elite” fighter? Come on, Ben, we both know that the UFC’s totally unbiased ranking system already does that for us. (*gives best “Can you believe this guy?” face*)

BG: Agreed; board this hype-train at your own risk. Look, putting together six wins in a row is a rare feat in the UFC, but I don’t think that beating a seasoned, well-rounded fighter like Mike Pyle would be any more impressive than Brown’s previous thrashings of Jordan Mein and Mike Swick. Brown’s recent streak has a lot to do with matchmaking; he’s had the fortune of being paired up against other bangers who have let Brown turn the fights into ugly brawls. At some point, he’ll have to face the kind of opponents who used to give him a lot of trouble, namely wrestlers and submission artists. Think of the way Dong Hyun Kim and Ricardo Almeida imposed their will on him, or the way four of his five appearances in 2010-2011 ended in submission losses. (All in the second round, by the way. Hopefully he saw Chael’s psychologist about that.)

Bottom line is, Matt Brown still has a long way to go in order to prove himself, even if he rips Pyle apart. A win on Saturday will put him on the title path at 170, where things start to get really hairy. Hendricks, Condit, Ellenberger, Rory Mac, Maia, Kampmann — he’ll have to beat at least two of those guys to punch his ticket to a title shot, and it’s doubtful that any of them will allow the scrappy underdog to turn it into an alley-fight.

If Joe Lauzon wins another end-of-night bonus on Saturday, he will once again break the record for most bonuses earned by a UFC fighter. (He’s currently tied with Anderson Silva at 12.) How likely is Lauzon to pick up a bonus on Saturday, considering his opponent and the rest of the lineup on this card?

BG: Lauzon has won Submission of the Night bonuses in each of his last five victories, and I like his odds for making it six in a row against Michael Johnson. For one thing, Johnson is submittable; Reza Madadi just won a $60,000 bump in April by tapping Johnson with a SOTN-winning d’arce choke, and “The Menace” also fell victim to a Paul Sass heel-hook back in 2011.

Not only does Lauzon hold a significant advantage against Johnson on the mat, the only other submission artists on Saturday’s card who are as dependable as Lauzon are Urijah Faber (6 subs and 4 SOTNs in his last 7 wins) and Cole Miller (6 subs and 3 SOTNs in his last 6 wins), and since Cole is fighting on Facebook, we can pretty much rule him out. So as I see it, it’s basically a coin toss between J-Lau and the California Kid.

Obviously, Lauzon’s chances of scoring one of the other end-of-night bonuses are much lower. It seems virtually impossible that Joe will produce the most impressive knockout on a card that also features Alistair Overeem vs. Travis Browne, Uriah Hall vs. John Howard, and assorted sluggers like Matt Brown and Conor McGregor. And with so many matchups designed for action on this card, Lauzon vs. Johnson has a ton of potential competition in the Fight of the Night department as well. So let’s hope Lauzon’s night ends with a bonus-worthy submission, because his life is about to get a lot more expensive.

JJ: I hate to agree with you, being that this is a “vs.” piece and all (speaking of which, we should probably come up with some sort of fight-based bet to sweeten the pot a little*), but it’s a well-known fact that I’ve been swingin’ from Lauzon’s gruesome twosome since back in the day. If Deathklok’s “Thunderhorse” could somehow be captured in a human vessel, it would be Joe Lauzon, and I predict he will do nothing less than annihilate Michael Johnson on the 17th. Johnson is in over his head, in enemy territory and is getting subbed in the first round. The only question is whether or not Lauzon will do it with that flying triangle off the cage he’s been practicing. If he does, I am fully prepared to shit bricks.

I similarly see either Brown or Overeem scoring KOTN, McGregor and Holloway possibly picking up FOTN and Lauzon snagging SOTN, either with the aforementioned pants-shitting flying triangle or some form of leg lock. The bank: You can take that to it.

This weekend’s card features Urijah Faber and Uriah Hall. It also features Mike Brown, Matt Brown, and Travis Browne, as well as Michael Johnson, Michael McDonald, and Mike Pyle, and a guy whose name is spelled Yuri or Iuri, depending on which database you’re looking at. How the fuck am I — the casual MMA fan — supposed to keep this all straight?

JJ: Chances are that if you’re the casual fan, you won’t know who half the aforementioned people are until Bruce Buffer is screaming their names with the passion of a thousand suns anyway (on that note, if Rene Rancourt is not brought into the mix, be it for a guest introduction or otherwise, I will find Dana White and uncork the ass whooping of a lifetime upon him for his insolence). I barely know who Yuri Alcantara is, and if you don’t believe me, read this article.

Honestly, this fight card is so stacked with so much talent and awesome matchups that it’s kind of hurting my eyes. If I could find Joe Silva right now, I’d give him a pat on his little head, a gold star for the day and hoist him up like so:

…did that answer your question?

BG: It’s pretty simple if you just memorize this mnemonic poem:

California sunny day
Spell Urijah with a J
Spinning kicks that make you fall
No J in Uriah Hall

“Immortal” says his stomach-tat
That’s the Brown who’s name is Matt
Travis Browne’s near seven-feet high
Mike Brown is the other guy

All these Michaels to keep straight:
“Mayday” is the bantamweight
Mike Pyle, party in the back
Johnson is the one who’s…athletic and explosive

Nobody should have to worry
How to spell “Yuri,” or “Iuri”
We just call him Alcantara
He will be choked out tomorra’

//////////

* BG: Alright, buster. Here are my main card picks: Sonnen, Browne, Faber, Brown, Howard, Lauzon. Post yours in the comments section. We’ll tally ‘em up after the show, and the loser has to get a life-sized tattoo of the winner’s face on their own face. Either that or a Starbucks gift-card.

‘UFC 157: Rousey vs. Carmouche’ Extended Video Preview, Featuring Henderson vs. Machida

(“Of course I’m gonna beat Liz Carmouche. And everyone that comes after her. I’m going to retire undefeated, and there’s nothing any of these girls can do about it.” Video via: YouTube.com/UFC)

And here we have the traditional nine-minute preview of the UFC’s next pay-per-view event, which goes down February 23rd at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. If you’re tired of the Rousey vs. Carmouche hype at this point (Rousey = Mike Tyson, “Lizbos,” etc.), just skip to 5:07 to see the profile of Dan Henderson vs. Lyoto Machida, which begins by recapping the Henderson knee injury that led to the scrapping of UFC 151. At the 5:58 mark, Dana White says that if Henderson beats Machida, Henderson will get the next light-heavyweight title shot, which is direct contradiction of…ah, just forget it.

Also: Henderson hints that he’s bringing a secret weapon to this fight, but if that doesn’t work, he’ll just have to hit Machida with his right hand. (Makes sense.) Of course, Hendo vs. the Dragon is a matchup of power vs. speed/footwork, but as Henderson puts it, “we’ll see how quick this old man is too.”


(“Of course I’m gonna beat Liz Carmouche. And everyone that comes after her. I’m going to retire undefeated, and there’s nothing any of these girls can do about it.” Video via: YouTube.com/UFC)

And here we have the traditional nine-minute preview of the UFC’s next pay-per-view event, which goes down February 23rd at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. If you’re tired of the Rousey vs. Carmouche hype at this point (Rousey = Mike Tyson, “Lizbos,” etc.), just skip to 5:07 to see the profile of Dan Henderson vs. Lyoto Machida, which begins by recapping the Henderson knee injury that led to the scrapping of UFC 151. At the 5:58 mark, Dana White says that if Henderson beats Machida, Henderson will get the next light-heavyweight title shot, which is direct contradiction of…ah, just forget it.

Also: Henderson hints that he’s bringing a secret weapon to this fight, but if that doesn’t work, he’ll just have to hit Machida with his right hand. (Makes sense.) Of course, Hendo vs. the Dragon is a matchup of power vs. speed/footwork, but as Henderson puts it, “we’ll see how quick this old man is too.”

‘UFC on FOX 5: Henderson vs. Diaz’ Preview: Breaking Down the Top Three Fights

(Staredowns from yesterday’s press conference, via MMAFighting. BJ is in amped-up savage-mode, and Bendo is just *daring* Diaz to pull some of his crazy shit again.)

By George Shunick

UFC on Fox 5 is one of the most stacked cards of the entire year, and it’s free on network television. It contains a pseudo-grudge match between the only man in UFC  history to hold the lightweight and welterweight titles, and a rising star who trains with his greatest rival. The co-main event sees a PRIDE legend and one-time UFC champ looking to reclaim his former glory in yet another epic war against a rising contender from a burgeoning MMA scene in Scandanavia. And in the main event, you have the two best lightweights in the world (besides Frankie Edgar) going head to head in the toughest division in the UFC. What more could you ask for?

Well, if the answer to that rhetorical question was “the most brilliant predictions/pre-fight analysis column ever,” then you are in luck, my friend! And because this card is so stacked, there will be not one, not two, not three, but…actually no, there will be three predictions. (Sorry Mike Swick and Matt Brown.) Logophobes, you’ve been warned.

The first of the big three fights on the card is the highly anticipated matchup between a returning BJ Penn and wunderkind Rory MacDonald. Penn’s seeking to reinforce his legacy as one of the best ever in the sport, and Rory’s been giving him even more motivation recently, claiming he’s coming to “hurt [Penn]” who he believes is “fighting for the wrong reasons.” Bold words, but MacDonald’s the type of fighter who’s capable of backing them up. He’s only lost once in his career — a TKO loss to Carlos Condit, in which he won the first two rounds before getting stopped in the waning seconds of the final round. But he holds wins over Nate Diaz and Mike Pyle, and aside from the former, all of MacDonald’s victories have come by stoppage.

It should be noted, though, that aside from Condit, Penn is a stronger fighter at this weight than any of the other fighters mentioned. He presents a greater knockout threat than any of them, has better wrestling, and has one of, if not the, best top games of any grappler in the UFC. However, Penn has historically been weak in the cardio department, particularly at welterweight. Even though he looks to be in excellent shape, he’s still carrying more weight than usual, and he’ll be forced to carry MacDonald’s weight as well. While Penn’s revamped his training camp, it’s unlikely he’ll have been able to fix a career-long deficiency, particularly after returning from “retirement.”


(Staredowns from yesterday’s press conference, via MMAFighting. BJ is in amped-up savage-mode, and Bendo is just *daring* Diaz to pull some of his crazy shit again.)

By George Shunick

UFC on Fox 5 is one of the most stacked cards of the entire year, and it’s free on network television. It contains a pseudo-grudge match between the only man in UFC  history to hold the lightweight and welterweight titles, and a rising star who trains with his greatest rival. The co-main event sees a PRIDE legend and one-time UFC champ looking to reclaim his former glory in yet another epic war against a rising contender from a burgeoning MMA scene in Scandanavia. And in the main event, you have the two best lightweights in the world (besides Frankie Edgar) going head to head in the toughest division in the UFC. What more could you ask for?

Well, if the answer to that rhetorical question was “the most brilliant predictions/pre-fight analysis column ever,” then you are in luck, my friend! And because this card is so stacked, there will be not one, not two, not three, but…actually no, there will be three predictions. (Sorry Mike Swick and Matt Brown.) Logophobes, you’ve been warned.

The first of the big three fights on the card is the highly anticipated matchup between a returning BJ Penn and wunderkind Rory MacDonald. Penn’s seeking to reinforce his legacy as one of the best ever in the sport, and Rory’s been giving him even more motivation recently, claiming he’s coming to “hurt [Penn]” who he believes is “fighting for the wrong reasons.” Bold words, but MacDonald’s the type of fighter who’s capable of backing them up. He’s only lost once in his career — a TKO loss to Carlos Condit, in which he won the first two rounds before getting stopped in the waning seconds of the final round. But he holds wins over Nate Diaz and Mike Pyle, and aside from the former, all of MacDonald’s victories have come by stoppage.

It should be noted, though, that aside from Condit, Penn is a stronger fighter at this weight than any of the other fighters mentioned. He presents a greater knockout threat than any of them, has better wrestling, and has one of, if not the, best top games of any grappler in the UFC. However, Penn has historically been weak in the cardio department, particularly at welterweight. Even though he looks to be in excellent shape, he’s still carrying more weight than usual, and he’ll be forced to carry MacDonald’s weight as well. While Penn’s revamped his training camp, it’s unlikely he’ll have been able to fix a career-long deficiency, particularly after returning from “retirement.”

All of which is to say, Penn should find success in the first round, much like his first fight against St. Pierre and his last fight against Nick Diaz. He may manage to knock Rory out or submit him should he manage to hurt him on the feet. But come the second and third rounds, expect Rory to begin imposing his size and cardio on Penn, pressuring him into the fence, securing takedowns and working constant ground and pound. A finish isn’t likely — Penn’s durability is renowned — but BJ has historically not been impressive off of his back without a gi. Should Rory secure a takedown, it’s unlikely Penn will be able to threaten him to the extent necessary to submit or sweep him. This, in turn, will allow MacDonald to work his offense and come out with a unanimous decision victory, albeit one that does not live up to his promise to truly “hurt” The Prodigy.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will face Alexander Gustafsson in the co-main event, in what is now promised to be a #1 contender’s match, and will almost assuredly be a changing of the guard in the light heavyweight division. I hate to admit that, because I’ve always been a fan of Shogun throughout his career, and even got to see him win the UFC title in Montreal. But facts are facts; he hasn’t been the same since that fight. (Undergoing a third major knee surgery following the fight might have something to do with it.) Shogun’s best weapons have always been his kicks, in no small part because they pack ungodly amounts of power. (2749 pounds of force, to be specific.) But in his fights with Jon Jones, Forrest Griffin, Dan Henderson and Brandon Vera, he’s abandoned them. It’s impossible to know why, although it’s fair to assume the accumulated damage to his knees have something to do with it.

This leaves his boxing as his focal standup technique, and Shogun’s boxing leaves much to be desired. He virtually never jabs, and most of his punches adhere to the Wanderlei Silva philosophy of berserker-rushing opponents. Which, in case you’re unaware, doesn’t do fighters any favors as they age and their reflexes slow. As a result, Shogun’s been hit hard and rocked in three of his last four fights. Even if he’s tough as nails, a human being can’t continue to take that amount of punishment. And a fighter certainly can’t expect to win if that keeps happening.

Now, he’s facing an opponent with an absurdly long reach and solid wrestling ability. Much like Jones, Shogun’s going to have a difficult time closing the distance between himself and Gustafsson. But unless he brings his kicks back, he’ll need to do that if he wants to win. Because if he doesn’t, Gustafsson’s just going to use his excellent jab to pick Shogun apart from the outside, and possibly hurt him if Shogun gets desperate and rushes in. The wild card at play here is if Shogun can get the fight to the ground — he’s got underrated jiu jitsu, and is a legitimate threat to submit Gustafsson. Sadly, that probably won’t happen. Gustafsson should take this by unanimous decision. If Rua is rocked for the fourth time in five fights, as odd as it sounds, he might have to begin thinking about retirement. He doesn’t want to run the risk of ending up like his brother.

Finally, Benson Henderson will defend his lightweight title against Nate Diaz in the main event. It’s extraordinarily difficult to pick a winner between these two. Nate’s clearly got superior boxing, but Henderson’s kicks are far more potent. Henderson’s wrestling is stronger than Diaz’s, but Diaz has an incredibly active guard. Henderson has amazing submission defense. But so did Jim Miller. Both have excellent cardio, although Diaz probably has the advantage there. It’s an incredibly even matchup, and it’s almost impossible to discern exactly how this fight will play out.

However, there are two scenarios that are more likely than the others. In the first, Henderson takes advantage of the fact that Diaz is absolutely terrible at checking leg kicks and wallops his lead leg for the majority of the fight, circling out when Diaz gets too close for comfort, just like Condit did to Nate’s older brother. Henderson may occasionally mix in a low-risk takedown towards the end of the rounds, and will make an effort to bully Nate into the fence whenever he gets the opportunity. It wouldn’t be the most exciting fight, but it would get the job done for Henderson, who would finally be able to get his first legitimate title defense under his belt. (Sorry Henderson fans, Frankie Edgar won that second fight. Don’t even try to argue.)

But that’s not how I suspect this will go down. Diaz will come forward, press Henderson with punches, and just when he sees Henderson’s about to lose his cool, he’ll flip off Henderson’s mom. Henderson will fly into a rage and open himself up for a counter, which Diaz will exploit. Alright, perhaps it won’t be quite that dramatic, but that’s going to be Diaz’ strategy. He wants to piss Henderson off and get him to play his game — volume punching, clinching, awkward takedowns, etc. I think Henderson’s susceptible to engaging in that kind of reckless behavior; just look at his fight with Clay Guida, or how he opted to stand with Anthony Pettis the entire time instead of using his superior wrestling. Ben Henderson’s a guy who likes to prove a point in his fights. The problem is you don’t want to prove a point against the Diaz brothers. Ben Henderson’s going to find that out the hard way. Diaz by submission, round 3.

St. Pierre vs. Condit: UFC 154 Main Event Breakdown

By George Shunick

On December 7th, 2011, a date which will live in infamy a date upon which some lame stuff happened but probably didn’t quite compare to the violent inception of the United States’ involvement in the deadliest war in recorded history, UFC welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre blew out his ACL while training for a bout with Nick Diaz. Fast-forward almost a year and GSP is set to make his return in his hometown of Montreal, this time against interim welterweight champion Carlos Condit. But much like a year ago, the focus is on GSP’s knee. Has it healed completely and will it hold up against Condit’s leg kicks? Will GSP possess the same degree of athleticism that he’s been able to rely on in the past? Will GSP lose because of it?

In short, probably not. This isn’t to say Condit has no chance to win. To the contrary, he’s the most formidable challenger GSP has faced since Jon Fitch, and he’s got a better chance to win. He can match St. Pierre in striking, and if he’s taken down he possesses an active guard. His jiu-jitsu probably isn’t capable of submitting St. Pierre, unless the latter is already stunned with strikes, but it may be enough to get up off his back should he be taken down. Best of all, Condit has a clear target to go for: GSP’s knee. St. Pierre can claim his knee is fine all he wants, but it’s unquestionably a weakness that Condit will seek to exploit for the entire fight.

Furthermore, it’s hard to tell what St. Pierre will step into the ring. Will he be hesitant to engage and overly tentative? (GSP’s critics just jumped up and shouted “But he already is!”) If he gets backed up consistently he’ll get tagged, and there’s no telling how he’ll react to that. GSP isn’t all athleticism and explosiveness, but these traits undoubtedly give him a decided edge over virtually all of his opponents — and after 19 months out of the Octagon, he may not look like the same fighter. There are a large number of legitimate questions that surround St. Pierre’s return, and there’s no real way to answer them until we see him in action Saturday night.

That said, I don’t think they all need to be answered to favor St. Pierre…

By George Shunick

On December 7th, 2011, a date which will live in infamy a date upon which some lame stuff happened but probably didn’t quite compare to the violent inception of the United States’ involvement in the deadliest war in recorded history, UFC welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre blew out his ACL while training for a bout with Nick Diaz. Fast-forward almost a year and GSP is set to make his return in his hometown of Montreal, this time against interim welterweight champion Carlos Condit. But much like a year ago, the focus is on GSP’s knee. Has it healed completely and will it hold up against Condit’s leg kicks? Will GSP possess the same degree of athleticism that he’s been able to rely on in the past? Will GSP lose because of it?

In short, probably not. This isn’t to say Condit has no chance to win. To the contrary, he’s the most formidable challenger GSP has faced since Jon Fitch, and he’s got a better chance to win. He can match St. Pierre in striking, and if he’s taken down he possesses an active guard. His jiu-jitsu probably isn’t capable of submitting St. Pierre, unless the latter is already stunned with strikes, but it may be enough to get up off his back should he be taken down. Best of all, Condit has a clear target to go for: GSP’s knee. St. Pierre can claim his knee is fine all he wants, but it’s unquestionably a weakness that Condit will seek to exploit for the entire fight.

Furthermore, it’s hard to tell what St. Pierre will step into the ring. Will he be hesitant to engage and overly tentative? (GSP’s critics just jumped up and shouted “But he already is!”) If he gets backed up consistently he’ll get tagged, and there’s no telling how he’ll react to that. GSP isn’t all athleticism and explosiveness, but these traits undoubtedly give him a decided edge over virtually all of his opponents — and after 19 months out of the Octagon, he may not look like the same fighter. There are a large number of legitimate questions that surround St. Pierre’s return, and there’s no real way to answer them until we see him in action Saturday night.

That said, I don’t think they all need to be answered to favor St. Pierre. Whether the label of “cautious” is legitimate or not when it comes to his fighting style, GSP absolutely prefers to stack the deck in his favor. It’s unlikely that he’d take the fight if he felt he wasn’t ready for it physically. Even if he’s not the same freak physical specimen he was before — although the UFC Primetime episodes seem to dispute this — St. Pierre is an excellent tactician and possesses more than enough skill to overcome any athletic adversity. He outwrestled Thiago Alves with a pulled groin and outboxed Jake Shields with one eye. Granted, Condit is better in both departments than either fighter I just mentioned, but my point is, GSP’s proven he can overcome physical adversity before.

While Condit may be the most complete fighter St. Pierre has ever faced, so is GSP the most complete fighter Condit has ever faced. In particular, Condit has never faced a wrestler on GSP’s level. The last time Condit competed against a high-ish level wrestler was against Rory MacDonald, and he lost the first two rounds before knocking MacDonald out with only 7 seconds left in the fight. Condit’s certainly improved since then, but GSP’s wrestling will test him in a manner he’s never had to deal with before. Even if it does stay standing, Condit may find success limited due to GSP’s jab, which is one of, if not the best in MMA. GSP essentially beat Josh Koscheck with this punch, and while he won’t be able to do that with Condit, he should be able to effectively limit his arsenal and set up his own takedowns.

Like I said, Condit’s got a decent chance at winning this. He has the cardio to match GSP’s, and he’s got a better shot at finishing the fight. But ultimately, GSP should be too much for him. He’ll keep him off balance with the jab, take Condit down when he attempts to kick, and should score from the top position throughout the fight. It probably won’t end via stoppage, which will fuel GSP’s haters even more, but this speaks more to Condit’s toughness and technique than GSP’s lack of finishing ability. Expect the king of the wet blankets (and the welterweight division) to unify his crown.

‘UFC on FOX 4: Shogun vs. Vera’ Preview and Predictions


(“You know the deal, guys. Whoever puts on the most impressive performance tonight gets the title shot.” [*unzips*] / Photo courtesy of CombatLifestyle.com. For more photos from this set, click here.)

By Ryan Sarr

Who is going to win the “Jon Jones Sweepstakes?” That is the big question heading into the UFC’s fourth venture onto network television tonight. Dana White was so pissed about the boring, lackluster abomination that was the UFC 149 main card, that he decided to award a light-heavyweight title shot to the man who wins the “most impressively” among the four main and co-main event participants. (Yes, even Brandon Vera)  The only problem with this scenario is that all four men — Shogun, Vera, Machida, and Bader — have each been decisively destroyed by Jon Jones in previous fights.

Nonetheless, this fight card is still very intriguing and offers many reasons to tune in.  First of all: It’s free on Fox. Second, all four main card bouts are likely to be exciting, fast-paced battles. It also marks the return of the very talented Mike Swick to the Octagon, who hasn’t fought in over two years. Finally, we have a chance to see a true Cinderella story play out once again as Jamie Varner gets a chance to take another huge step up in his comeback by fighting on a main card on network television. So, join me as I break down the main card for UFC on Fox 4 and offer my predictions as to who will emerge victorious.

Mike Swick (14-4, 9-3 UFC) vs. DaMarques Johnson (15-10, 4-4 UFC)

DaMarques Johnson said in the fight promo, “There’s a 50% chance I’m gonna win this fight, there’s a 100% chance that somebody’s taking a nap,” and Johnson has the track record to back it up: None of his fights in the UFC have gone the distance. The Jeremy Horn protégé has slick submission skills to go along with his heavy hands. We know Johnson will bring a fast-paced, exciting style into the Octagon, and his opponent Mike Swick will almost certainly do the same.


(“You know the deal, guys. Whoever puts on the most impressive performance tonight gets the title shot.” [*unzips*] / Photo courtesy of CombatLifestyle.com. For more photos from this set, click here.)

By Ryan Sarr

Who is going to win the “Jon Jones Sweepstakes?” That is the big question heading into the UFC’s fourth venture onto network television tonight. Dana White was so pissed about the boring, lackluster abomination that was the UFC 149 main card, that he decided to award a light-heavyweight title shot to the man who wins the “most impressively“ among the four main and co-main event participants. (Yes, even Brandon Vera)  The only problem with this scenario is that all four men — Shogun, Vera, Machida, and Bader — have each been decisively destroyed by Jon Jones in previous fights.

Nonetheless, this fight card is still very intriguing and offers many reasons to tune in.  First of all: It’s free on Fox. Second, all four main card bouts are likely to be exciting, fast-paced battles. It also marks the return of the very talented Mike Swick to the Octagon, who hasn’t fought in over two years. Finally, we have a chance to see a true Cinderella story play out once again as Jamie Varner gets a chance to take another huge step up in his comeback by fighting on a main card on network television. So, join me as I break down the main card for UFC on Fox 4 and offer my predictions as to who will emerge victorious.

Mike Swick (14-4, 9-3 UFC) vs. DaMarques Johnson (15-10, 4-4 UFC)

DaMarques Johnson said in the fight promo, “There’s a 50% chance I’m gonna win this fight, there’s a 100% chance that somebody’s taking a nap,” and Johnson has the track record to back it up: None of his fights in the UFC have gone the distance. The Jeremy Horn protégé has slick submission skills to go along with his heavy hands. We know Johnson will bring a fast-paced, exciting style into the Octagon, and his opponent Mike Swick will almost certainly do the same.

Swick hasn’t fought in over two years due to esophageal spasms, a condition which his doctors told him would never allow him to fight again. Well, he proved them wrong and now his comeback fight will be in front of a national television audience. Swick is a UFC veteran, with over 10 fights in the Octagon, but his last two outings have been losses. Like Johnson, Swick loves to stand and trade, and possesses knockout power in both hands. Look for this fight to stay on the feet, with each man exchanging heavy blows in the pocket. The question is: How much ring rust will Swick have? Johnson hasn’t beat anyone of Swick’s stature, but Johnson has fought six times since Swick last fought.

Prediction:  The chances of this fight making it out of the first round are slim. Johnson will definitely come with the thunder, but Swick will be too much on the feet. Swick wins by counter-punching his way to a first round TKO.

Jamie Varner (20-6-1, 2-1 UFC) vs. Joe Lauzon (21-7, 8-4 UFC)

10 months ago, Jamie Varner had just lost to our favorite gay for pay Ultimate Fighter Dakota Cochrane, and it was looking like he would never fight under the Zuffa banner again. But, after winning two fights in smaller shows, the UFC called in May and gave Varner a short-notice fight against the undefeated Edson Barboza at UFC 146.  Barboza was coming off his Sportscenter-worthy spinning wheel kick KO of Terry Etim, and it seemed Varner was being fed to the beast. Varner had other plans however, and knocked out Barboza in the first round. So, now Varner gets another huge opportunity in Joe Lauzon, who is a consistent contender in the lightweight division.

The jiu-jitsu specialist Lauzon has 21 victories, with 17 coming by way of submission. This does not bode well for Varner, who has never been knocked out, but has proven susceptible to submissions in the past, losing in this manner to Shane Roller, Hermes Franca, and Ben Henderson.  Lauzon is coming off a first round KO loss to Anthony Pettis, and will no doubt be looking to avoid Varner’s heavy hands and drag this fight to the ground. If Lauzon can take Varner down, a choke or armbar will be soon to follow, but if Varner can keep this fight standing, he could pull the upset and put himself “in the mix” in the UFC’s 155lb division.

Prediction: While the Cinderella story of Jamie Varner is enticing, look for that story to have a sour ending Saturday night. Lauzon will not give Varner the chance to knock him out, and Lauzon will win by first-round armbar.

Lyoto Machida (17-3, 9-3 UFC) vs. Ryan Bader (14-2, 7-2 UFC)

Of all the men to fight Jon Jones, Lyoto Machida seemed to have to most success, frustrating Jones in the first round of their fight with his unorthodox striking and exceptional defensive skills. But, that success was short-lived as Jones choked Machida unconscious and dropped his lifeless body on the mat in the second round. Now Machida gets a chance to rematch Jones if he can impressively defeat Ryan Bader. Bader, on the other hand, is riding a two-fight win streak following his shocking loss to Tito Ortiz last summer. In his last fight, Bader defeated perennial contender Rampage Jackson, though Jackson came in overweight and undermotivated.

In this fight with Machida, Bader needs to use his excellent wrestling skills to put Machida on his back where he is more vulnerable to attack, but as many fighters have found out, that can be very difficult to do. Machida’s unorthodox striking and karate skills are difficult to defend standing up, and with Sensei Seagal in your corner, you never know when a front kick might be unleashed.  Bader does have an outside chance of landing a big punch ala Shogun Rua, but the longer the fight stays on the feet, the more it favors the Dragon. The wrinkle in this fight, though, is the fact that both men are vying for that title shot, so we may see Machida be much more aggressive than usual, which could play into Bader’s favor if Machida was to open himself up to counter-strikes. Either way, this should be a very exciting fight between two contrasting styles.

Prediction:  Bader will quickly realize he is unable to take Machida down, and will be looking to end it with big punches. This will leave Machida many openings to counter, which he will not miss. Machida floors Bader with punches and finishes the job with a second round choke.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (20-6, 4-4 UFC) vs. Brandon Vera (12-5, 8-5 UFC)

If you find it quite odd that Brandon Vera is headlining a network television UFC card with a chance for a title shot if he wins, you are not alone. Once considered the future of the UFC heavyweight division, Vera’s career has been consistently mediocre since 2007.  After stunning Frank Mir at UFC 65 in 2006, Vera lost his next two fights, dropped to light heavyweight, and then lost to Keith Jardine. Vera got his chance against Jones two years ago, but Jon Jones broke his face (literally) with a devastating elbow that was tough to even watch. Now after being released and subsequently re-signed by the UFC, Vera gets to face Mauricio Rua, who many consider the number three light-heavyweight in the world.

Shogun, who is coming off his fight of the year loss to Dan Henderson, is itching for another crack at Jon Jones. Shogun claims he wasn’t 100% in the Jones fight, and wants another shot at the champ. But first, he has to deal with Vera. Even though Vera’s record is pretty terrible as of late, he does possess the skills of an elite fighter. Unfortunately, the things Vera does well, like leg kicks and clinch striking, Shogun seems to do a little better. Also, Shogun has proven very difficult to finish when 100%, and his penchant for violence can lead to an early night for his opponents. Look for Shogun to be very aggressive early in this fight, doing all he can to punish Vera with leg kicks and big punches. If Vera can survive the early onslaught, his chances of winning improve significantly, as Shogun’s cardio has been suspect in the past, and you never know how conditioned he will be for a fight. Nonetheless, this should be an exciting stand-up war as both men want that title shot and rematch with Jon Jones.

Prediction: Shogun has proven he’s an elite light-heavyweight, Vera has not. Shogun will simply out-class Vera early, leaving “The Truth” scrambling and searching for answers. Shogun wins by second round TKO, leaving Vera’s face a bloody mess.

Extra prediction: With Machida and Shogun both winning “impressively,” Dana decides to have these two fight to determine who will face Jonny Bones for the title.

UFC 147: Silva vs. Franklin 2 — Main Event Preview & Analysis

(“Axe Murdering” — a Wanderlei Silva highlight film by Potato Nation hall-of-famer Perdew.)

By George Shunick

If it wasn’t for the utter disintegration of UFC 149, UFC 147 might be the most disappointing card of the year. Originally supposed to feature the rematch between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen in Brazil, then Vitor Belfort and Wanderlei Silva, we are now stuck with Rich Franklin squaring off against the latter Silva. Of course, it’s cards like this that always end up surprising all the naysayers with copious amounts of glorious violence, so maybe there’s hope after all! OK, so while you’re not going to go out of your way to buy this card any time soon, at least the main event still might be worth pirating online. (Sorry Dana, you’re the one who’s trying to charge $50 for this.)

Now I may be in the minority on this one, but I’m actually more excited for Franklin-Silva than I was for Belfort-Silva. Why? Because it’s not a glorified squash match. Look, I’m a big fan of Wanderlei. I can’t think of something more enjoyable than watching that bloodthirsty sociopath do more damage and evoke more terror in Japan in eight years than Godzilla did in over half a century. But between his once-granite chin being reduced to rubble, his age compromising his speed and cardio — all while retaining the punching technique of a wind turbine — Silva is no longer the force he once was. Against a heavy-handed striker, he’s in trouble. Against a striker of Belfort’s caliber, he’s toast.

Fortunately for Silva, Rich Franklin isn’t quite as dangerous. Despite a permanent role on UFC highlight reels with his knockouts of Nate Quarry and Chuck Liddell, Franklin can no longer be considered one of the top strikers in the middleweight division. Like Silva, he’s alternated wins and losses since their last meeting. Both have suffered a brutal knockout loss since then as well; Franklin to Belfort and Silva to Chris Leben. In fact, Franklin and Silva match up fairly well with each other; both have solid stand-up and sound – if unspectacular – ground games. Much like their previous meeting, this has the potential be a close, dramatic fight.


(“Axe Murdering” — a Wanderlei Silva highlight film by Potato Nation hall-of-famer Perdew.)

By George Shunick

If it wasn’t for the utter disintegration of UFC 149, UFC 147 might be the most disappointing card of the year. Originally supposed to feature the rematch between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen in Brazil, then Vitor Belfort and Wanderlei Silva, we are now stuck with Rich Franklin squaring off against the latter Silva. Of course, it’s cards like this that always end up surprising all the naysayers with copious amounts of glorious violence, so maybe there’s hope after all! OK, so while you’re not going to go out of your way to buy this card any time soon, at least the main event still might be worth pirating online. (Sorry Dana, you’re the one who’s trying to charge $50 for this.)

Now I may be in the minority on this one, but I’m actually more excited for Franklin-Silva than I was for Belfort-Silva. Why? Because it’s not a glorified squash match. Look, I’m a big fan of Wanderlei. I can’t think of something more enjoyable than watching that bloodthirsty sociopath do more damage and evoke more terror in Japan in eight years than Godzilla did in over half a century. But between his once-granite chin being reduced to rubble, his age compromising his speed and cardio — all while retaining the punching technique of a wind turbine — Silva is no longer the force he once was. Against a heavy-handed striker, he’s in trouble. Against a striker of Belfort’s caliber, he’s toast.

Fortunately for Silva, Rich Franklin isn’t quite as dangerous. Despite a permanent role on UFC highlight reels with his knockouts of Nate Quarry and Chuck Liddell, Franklin can no longer be considered one of the top strikers in the middleweight division. Like Silva, he’s alternated wins and losses since their last meeting. Both have suffered a brutal knockout loss since then as well; Franklin to Belfort and Silva to Chris Leben. In fact, Franklin and Silva match up fairly well with each other; both have solid stand-up and sound – if unspectacular – ground games. Much like their previous meeting, this has the potential be a close, dramatic fight.

At UFC 99, Franklin won in large part because he controlled the action. Silva has never been light of foot, and Franklin was able to dictate the distance their exchanges took place in. Franklin was able to slip in and out, landing jabs and crosses and evading Silva’s looping counter-punches. Not only did this allow Franklin to score points, it also helped fatigue Silva. Until the final minute of the second round, Silva’s sole offensive output on the feet had consisted of kicks, largely because he was unable to close the distance that Franklin has established.

When Silva was able to tag Franklin, it was when he moved forward. Silva finally landed two clean counter-hooks on Franklin with roughly 1:10 remaining the second round, and sensing blood, he charged. He landed a few solid right hands, but because he insisted on only throwing hooks, Franklin was able to avoid many of them and stay in the fight and on his feet. In the final round, Wanderlei was able to grab a Thai clinch – a position that both fighters are very familiar with, albeit for completely disparate reasons – but was too exhausted to maintain it. Wanderlei, much like in the previous round, found some success moving forward at the end, but it was too little too late. Franklin’s takedown in the final minute sealed the win for him.

In all likelihood, this upcoming fight is going to have many similarities to their past one, but with some key differences. Most notably, their last fight (held at a 195-pound catchweight) marked Silva’s first attempt at cutting below 205, and he reportedly had to lose 12 pounds the day before. It clearly affected his conditioning in that bout, and should not prove to be a problem this time around. But it wasn’t the only reason Silva grew tired; Franklin’s strategy of keeping Silva on the outside, swinging and missing with his powerful punches and throwing kicks, was also responsible for wearing Silva down. I doubt Franklin will change his strategy for this fight, and if he executes it, he’s going to win again.

Wanderlei needs to press forward, throw bombs, and hope to either connect with one or secure a Muay Thai plum-clinch. Either way, victory for him comes down to whether or not he will be able to close the distance. The problem for Silva is that this path is fraught with peril; Franklin may not have hands of stone, but he’s shown he has more than enough power to take out a fading star who’s chin isn’t what it once was. (Just ask Liddell.) When Silva wades in with those looping hooks, he invariably gets beaten to the punch. That didn’t matter when he was younger, but it does now.

For this reason, I’m giving the slight edge to Franklin. He doesn’t need to risk as much to put himself in a position to win the fight as Wanderlei does. Silva definitely has the capability to knock Franklin out, but I don’t see him taking a decision over five rounds and I certainly don’t see him submitting Franklin. Franklin has proven he can stay on the outside and pick his shots; he risks getting tagged, but as long as Silva refuses to punch straight, it’s not as big a risk as it should be. He can win a decision, or possibly knock Silva out if he wades in with his hands low. I suspect Silva will have his moments, but will tire trying to catch Franklin over the course of five rounds as “Ace” wins a clear cut decision in a headlining fight that has virtually no implications for the middleweight title picture and lacks a remotely compelling narrative or rivalry.

Actually, I take it back; you shouldn’t even pirate this. (You’re welcome, Dana.)