Author: alanwells

MMAFix Staff Picks: UFC 150

Benson Henderson (-210) vs. Frankie Edgar (+175) Emily Kapala: The Henderson Vs. Edgar fight is going to worth every PPV penny. While Henderson did take the belt from Edgar at their last meeting in the.

Benson Henderson (-210) vs. Frankie Edgar (+175)

Emily Kapala: The Henderson Vs. Edgar fight is going to worth every PPV penny. While Henderson did take the belt from Edgar at their last meeting in the octagon, I think the oddsmakers have it wrong by choosing Henderson as the favorite. While Henderson may have been the better fighter at the bout in Japan, Edgar is a better all around fighter. Not only will he win the fight, but he is the highest value bet. Frankie Edgar will be the regain his title as the lightweight champion of the world on Saturday night. Winner: Frankie Edgar

Alan Wells: I expect this fight to play out similarly to the first one. It will be close and Edgar will have his moments but Henderson is just a little better overall. Either way, this one is going five rounds and will be contested at a high level. And the odds are bettable either way. What more can you ask for? Winner: Ben Henderson

Elise Kapala: The main event is clearly a must see for MMA fans. Because Edgar lost the belt to Henderson, I believe he has the driving edge mentally, as well as physically, to get back his belt and regain the title of champion. I think Edgar will come out on top in this rematch. Winner: Frankie Edgar

Ryan Poli: I picked Henderson to win the first time, and even though I think Edgar should have won the fight, I’m picking Henderson again due to his skill in every aspect of the fight game. Henderson by decision. Winner: Ben Henderson

MMAFix PicK: Push (2-2)

Donald Cerrone (-350) vs. Melvin Guillard (+290)

Emily Kapala: With 7 fight of the night performances throughout his mixed martial arts career, you know a good brawl is going to happen when Cerrone is on the card. While Guillard has shown excellent skill thoughout his career, I see Cerrone winning with his Muay Thai kickboxing. With a win, he is on his way to be in the lightweight champion contendership once again. Winner: Donald Cerrone

Alan Wells: I expect this fight to be a replay of Cerrone’s previous fight against Jeremy Stephens. He’ll keep Guillard on the outside and pick him apart with combinations. The punches will land clean and set up huge leg kicks to finish. Cerrone will take this one convincingly but the odds make it not worth a bet. Winner: Donald Cerrone

Elise Kapala: The fight between Guillard and Cerrone is an interesting fight. They both have incredible knockout ability, so it should be very interesting. Although I think it will be a very close fight, I think that Cerrone will take the victory over Guillard. Winner: Donald Cerrone

Ryan Poli: Guillard has the power to end the fight at any time, but Cerrone has the technical advantage in the striking and a huge advantage in the ground game. Cerrone by Submission. Winner: Donald Cerrone

MMAFix Pick: Donald Cerrone (4-0)

UFC 150 Pre-Fight Analysis

Benson Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar Because of Frankie Edgar’s willingness to give immediate rematches to B.J. Penn and Gray Maynard, he gets one against Ben Henderson despite the long list of potential opponents waiting for.

Benson Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar

Because of Frankie Edgar’s willingness to give immediate rematches to B.J. Penn and Gray Maynard, he gets one against Ben Henderson despite the long list of potential opponents waiting for a title shot. But the first fight was entertaining enough that most fans are willing to tolerate the rest of the division being held hostage so that Edgar can get a second chance at Henderson.

We know who both of these fighters are at this point in their careers and the outcome of this fight will be determined solely on gameplan and execution. Neither fighter is significantly better than the other in any area and the key in fights like this is finding a way to create openings to score. This fight represents the future of MMA as two fighters who have high level skill sets in all areas fight for slight advantages through five close rounds. The only significant advantage gained by either fighter in the first fight was when Henderson landed an upkick at the end of the third round, which seems unlikely to be repeated. Both fighters have excellent striking with Edgar probably having a slight advantage in the boxing but Henderson having a slight advantage in the kicking game. Henderson also has the reach advantage but keeping Edgar on the outside has proved nearly impossible. Both are excellent wrestlers and frequently change levels to keep their opponents off balance. Once on the mat, both are capable of doing damage with ground and pound. But both are also excellent at getting back to their feet and neither fighter was able to maintain any significant ground control in the first fight.

This fight will likely play out similarly to the first fight with both fighters happy to engage on the feet but looking to mix in takedowns when the opportunity presents itself. Henderson proved to have a slight advantage in most positions in the first fight and one would expect that pattern to continue in this fight. Because of that, he comes in as a solid favorite at -210 with Edgar at +175. However, Henderson in no way dominated the first fight so a win for Edgar would not be a surprise. The first fight was won because Henderson took advantage of of a few small openings to outscore Edgar. If Edgar can tighten up those minor mistakes and instead create a few small openings of his own in this fight, he could easily reverse the outcome and regain his title. Whatever the outcome, this fight will be back and forth. Both fighters will win rounds and both will be successful at different points in the fight. The key will be whose execution is tighter and who was able to learn the most from the first fight. Henderson deserves to be the favorite but Edgar could easily walk away the champion. And if he does, the lightweight division will be even more convoluted than it already is.

Donald Cerrone vs. Melvin Guillard

If you’re an MMA fan, you’re excited about this fight. Donald Cerrone and Melvin Guillard are two of the most exciting fighters in the sport and only a glitch in the fabric of the universe could extinguish the fireworks these two are almost certain to light from the moment this fight begins.

Cerrone’s only loss since coming to the UFC was against Nate Diaz who is currently awaiting the winner of the headlining lightweight title fight between Frankie Edgar and Benson Henderson. He followed that loss with a dominant decision victory over Jeremy Stephens. Cerrone was never challenged in that fight and appeared to be sparring with Stephens by the third round. He destroyed Stephens leg with kicks and seemed to finish every combination with a baseball bat to Stephens’ thigh. He’ll be able to use the same strategy against Guillard who will be at a similar reach disadvantage and is also not a threat to take Cerrone to the mat. Cerrone has a clear grappling advantage in this fight and Greg Jackson will certainly be imploring his fighter to put Guillard on his back and work for a submission. Whether or not Cerrone listens will likely depend on whether or not he feels threatened by Guillard’s power.

Guillard was on the brink of a title shot before losing back to back fights via first round submission to Joe Lauzon and Jim Miller. And his performance last month against Fabricio Camoes was not impressive. He earned a bizarre unanimous decision victory with all three judges scoring the fight 30-27 despite the fact that Camoes clearly won the second round and the third round was incredibly close. Regardless, he will look to build on whatever momentum he gained from that fight in this fight against Cerrone. Guillard’s game is largely based on the power in his hands. If he finds his opponent’s chin, he usually wins but if he doesn’t, he struggles. He will be at a significant reach disadvantage in this fight and will need to use speed and movement to find his way inside and land combinations. He is capable of doing it but it will require a level of execution he hasn’t shown since leaving Jackson MMA for the Blackzillions.

Cerrone comes in as a significant favorite at -350 with Guillard getting +290. This fight will likely play out similarly to Cerrone’s previous fight against Jeremy Stephens. He will use his reach to keep Guillard at distance and pick him apart with combinations that end with destructive leg kicks. If Guillard has success closing the distance, look for Cerrone to take him down and work his submission game. And if Cerrone is only interested in winning, that is the more intelligent strategy. But he’s never been interested in simply winning the fight so look for him to make it a kickboxing match unless he feels threatened. But either way, this is likely to be a great lead in for the main event.

UFC on Fox 4: Post Fight Breakdown

Mauricio Rua vs. Brandon Vera Mauricio Rua is better than Brandon Vera. We knew that coming into the fight. But even in a loss, Vera showed the heart of a champion. He brought the fight.

Mauricio Rua vs. Brandon Vera

Mauricio Rua is better than Brandon Vera. We knew that coming into the fight. But even in a loss, Vera showed the heart of a champion. He brought the fight to Rua and refused to quit. He could have been finished at several points in the fight. Instead, he continued to throw back at Rua and put every ounce of his being into the fight. He fought until his body shut itself off against his will.

The first round opened with a quick kick from Vera. But Rua set the tempo for the fight almost immediately by landing a surprise takedown. He passed to side control but didn’t do much damage. Vera got back to his feet and attacked with a guillotine but Rua defended fairly easily and landed ground strikes before taking Vera’s back. Rua dominated the round and the outcome of the fight seemed inevitable at that point. Rua opened the second round with a big leg kick followed by a punch combination that pushed Vera back to the cage. Rua pounced for the finish and the fight seemed over. Vera briefly dropped but popped back up. And not only did he pop up, he popped up throwing. For the rest of the round, both fighters took turn landing huge shots. Vera landed big elbows and Rua responded with big punches and knees. Both fighters seemed to be tiring more from the damage they were absorbing than a lack of conditioning. Vera scored a takedown late in the round and rode out the remaining time in top position. The third round saw both fighters continue to tire. But that didn’t stop them from continuing to exchange big shots. Both fighters were hurt but neither was dropped at any point in the round. Rua landed two takedowns including one at the end of the round. The fourth round was similar to the third until Rua landed a combo that hurt Vera. He followed him to the cage and landed another big right hand. Vera’s body finally gave out on him and he crumpled to the mat.

For Shogun, his performance may have earned him a title shot. That will be up to the UFC. Lyoto Machida’s victory over Ryan Bader was impressive and I’m not sure exactly how they will determine whose performance was more impressive. But the more important outcome of this fight was what it means for Brandon Vera. He went toe to toe with one of the best light heavyweights in the history of the sport. Hopefully, he can bring the work ethic and mental approach he discovered for this fight into his future fights. If he does, he will be a threat. He won’t fulfill the title potential he showed early in his career, but his performance was enough to earn him the right to continue fighting at the higher levels of the division.

Lyoto Machida vs. Ryan Bader

Lyoto Machida put on a clinic against Ryan Bader on his way to a devastating second round knockout. Early in his UFC career, Machida was considered a boring fighter because he stayed on the outside and avoided danger forcing his opponents to attack and take all the risks. After several flashy finishes, he seemed to lose track of that strategy and became the aggressor. After suffering losses for the first time in his career, he returned to his roots and used his movement to beat Ryan Bader. Bader spent the entire first round trying to find a way to close the distance. He was not successful. Machida stayed on the outside and landed counter kicks and knees whenever an opportunity arose. The second round was playing out exactly the same way and the fans began to get restless just as they did in Machida’s early UFC fights. As soon as the fans started booing, Bader bull rushed Machida and lost the fight as the former champion obliterated him with a counter right. Only Bader knows if he rushed because he heard the fans booing but the timing certainly begs the question.

The win obviously puts Machida in the discussion for the next title shot. The only question will be whether the UFC determines his or Mauricio Rua’s victory to be more impressive. The loss is a setback for Bader as he continues to struggle with the top tier of the light heavyweight division. He made no attempt to use his wrestling to keep Machida off balance and will need to utilize his full game if he hopes to be a title contender. Power boxing will not be enough against the elite of the division and that seems to be all he brings to the cage recently.

Jamie Varner vs. Joe Lauzon

Taking this fight as a replacement and not having the time to go through a full training camp came back to bite Jamie Varner in the second fight of the night. He hurt Lauzon several times in the first round with big right hands but was unable to finish. By the middle of the round, he was already breathing through his mouth and trying to buy time between combinations. Lauzon brought the same aggression and explosiveness he brings to every fight firing back at Varner and landing a big knee in the middle of the round. The second round saw the momentum begin to shift definitively in favor of Lauzon as Varner continued to tire. Lauzon managed to take Varner’s back twice in the round and landed the bigger punches in the exchanges. The fighters engaged in several brawling flurries and were both lucky to escape without being hit cleanly. By the beginning of the third round, Varner looked exhausted and Lauzon had an obvious cardio advantage. Varner came out and immediately used his explosive takedowns to try to control the round. He took Lauzon down almost immediately but Lauzon got up quickly. Varner again landed a takedown but Lauzon used the momentum to sweep. Varner countered and reversed position but in the transition, Lauzon locked up a triangle and Varner was unable to escape.

This was arguably the fight of the night but it could have been even better if Varner had been able to perform at his peak but he took the fight and has no excuses. If he could have continued to land takedowns and navigate his way through the final round, he probably would have won a decision. Instead, Lauzon gets the victory and muddies the picture at lightweight even further. The division is so deep that it will be difficult for any one fighter to string together enough victories to get into the title picture. Fortunately for the UFC, Anthony Pettis is already in line for the next shot so the division has some time to sort itself out. Lauzon will likely see another one of the top contenders in the division and try to put together back to back victories. For Varner, he will likely have to step back and once again begin climbing perhaps the toughest ladder in the UFC.

Mike Swick vs. Demarques Johnson

Mike Swick opened UFC on Fox 4 by earning a knockout victory over Demarques Johnson in a triumphant return to the octagon after more than two years away due to injuries and illness. The opening round saw both fighters land big strikes and engage in dangerous brawling exchanges. Both fighters were hurt at various points but neither landed clean enough to end the fight. After landing a right hand, Johnson pressed forward and ended up on top of Swick. From there, he progressed to the full mount and landed heavy shots. Swick escaped the mount but quickly found himself in a perfect D’Arce position. But luckily for him, Johnson seemed to lack the technical ability to finish the choke and allowed Swick to escape the position and the round. Swick came out in the second round looking to change the momentum. He landed a left hand early in the round. Johnson threw a kick, which Swick caught and used to score a takedown. As Johnson’s back was hitting the mat and before Swick had even landed on top of him, Swick landed a huge right hand in the transition and knocked Johnson out cold. Swick landed two more shots before referee Herb Dean was able to step in to stop the fight.

Overall, Swick couldn’t have hoped for a much better outcome. He showed some rustiness and he never seemed to get fully comfortable in the fight. He left openings for Johnson and a better fighter might have been able to take advantage of those openings. But Swick did enough to earn the victory and even managed to do so in a way that reminded fans of his reputation for quick finishes earlier in his career. Swick will obviously earn a step up in competition and only time will tell how far this comeback will go. For Johnson, this puts him on the verge of leaving the UFC. Because he provided an entertaining fight, he likely earned some leeway but he needs to put together a couple wins in a row if he wants to move forward in his career.

MMAFix Staff Picks – UFC on Fox 4

Mauricio Rua (-350) vs. Brandon Vera (+290) Ryan Poli: I get the feeling that Vera will use this big opportunity to get a big upset win. However, I’m not predicting a win based on a.

Mauricio Rua (-350) vs. Brandon Vera (+290)
Ryan Poli: I get the feeling that Vera will use this big opportunity to get a big upset win. However, I’m not predicting a win based on a gut feeling. Shogun is the favorite for a reason and from a logical perspective, he should win the fight. Shogun by decision. Winner: Mauricio Rua

Alan Wells: This line is way too close. Shogun should destroy Vera. If he doesn’t, his days as a top contender are over. Simple as that. Normally, I would never bet odds this strongly in favor of one fighter but I actually think there’s value here considering the real talent disparity. Winner: Mauricio Rua

Emily Kapala: The oddsmakers have it right by picking Rua over Vera. He is the highest value pick, and he is going to come out with the win August 4. The winner of this fight could be a lightweight title contender. Winner: Mauricio Rua

Elise Kapala: The fight between Vera and “Shogun” Rua will be an interesting fight. With Shogun once again fighting for a title contendership spot, I think he will utilize his Muay Thai to defeat Vera. Winner: Mauricio Rua

John Rivera: If this fight had happened six years ago then it might be more deserving of main event status. As it is I’m not sure why Bader/Machida isn’t the headliner. Regardless, this should be an entertaining affair. Unless you’ve been living under a f**king rock then you know who Shogun is. His legendary five round brawl with the great Dan Henderson is widely considered throughout the MMA community to be one of the best fights in the history of the sport and if you youtube Infinite Warriors, you’ll see why this is some seriously epic sh*t.

Right so we all know Rua is a badass amongst badasses. Because of this A LOOOOOOTTT people think Shogun will show up and violently molest Brandon Vera much as Thiago Silva did. This is most likely what we’ll see on fight night, but if we’re lucky we’ll see something else….we’ll see a Brandon Vera that we haven’t seen in a while: the one who started his career knocking out heavyweight’s left and right, the one who went three close rounds with all-time great Randy Couture, in short the one that comes to fight.

Both guys are technical strikers with very solid grappling skills, but here’s the kicker. Shogun can take all the damage Vera can dish out and keep coming forward whereas the opposite is simply not true. Vera, while a great fighter and athlete, simply hasn’t shown the kind of aggression and tenacity needed to put a guy like Mauricio Rua away. I see Shogun taking a first round tko win unless by some miracle old Vera shows up to make it a fight in which case I still have Shogun grinding out a decision victory. Winner: Mauricio Rua

MMAFix Staff Pick: Mauricio Rua (5-0)

Lyoto Machida (-330) vs. Ryan Bader (+270)
Ryan Poli: Bader Proved that he is among the elite when he defeated Rampage Jackson. However Machida already defeated a strong wrestler in Randy Couture, and Machida’s performance against Jon Jones was far better than Bader’s. Machida by KO. Winner: Lyoto Machida

Alan Wells: This fight is the opposite of the first in terms of betting value. I don’t think Bader will pull off the upset but he is undervalued here in my opinion. I’m picking Machida to win but if I’m gambling, I’m putting my money on Bader. Winner: Lyoto Machida

Emily Kapala: Once again, the oddsmakers are right on key by picking Machida. He will definitely shine as a potential title contender in the lightweight division. If you’re going to put money on a fight August 4, this would be the fight to do it on. Winner: Lyoto Machida

Elise Kapala: The fight between Machida and Bader is also expected to be an excellent fight. I think it will be a very close fight, seeing as both fighters have excellent striking ability but also defensive game. I think Machida will come out with the victory, though. Winner: Lyoto Machida

John Rivera: Right off the bat I’m thinking…uhhh Lyoto wins by 2nd round SICKASSKARATEDEVASTATION! All one word and yes it is a technical term.

Ok let’s be serious. Ryan Bader is a bad dude for sure. He is STRONG, to say the least. his wrestling pedigree as an NCAA Div. I All-American wrestler speaks for itself, and any opponent he faces needs to be wary of his knockout power. That said, they call Lyoto Machida the Dragon for a reason….and that reason is because he is a monster who will terrorize you and all of your friends right before he MURDERS EVERYONE!!

Ok, let’s try to be serious this time for real…..Machida possesses vastly superior striking and incredible defensive/counter wrestling skills. He has a black belt in brazilian jiu-jitsu, a highly unorthodox style that remains difficult to emulate in training, and trains with arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the history of the UFC, Anderson “The Spider” Silva. With losses in three of his last four fights, Machida will try to make a statement with a finish. Bader will have to be truly impressive to fight off the second round tko blitz that Machida will be looking for. If he does he will have to use repeated take downs and clinch work against the cage to try to make a case for a decision. I see Machida winning either way. Winner: Lyoto Machida

MMAFix Staff Pick: Lyoto Machida (5-0)

UFC on Fox 4 Pre-Fight Analysis

Mauricio Rua vs. Brandon Vera The headlining fight for UFC on Fox 4 is one of the stranger UFC main events in recent memory. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is one of the more inconsistent fighters on.

Mauricio Rua vs. Brandon Vera

The headlining fight for UFC on Fox 4 is one of the stranger UFC main events in recent memory. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is one of the more inconsistent fighters on the UFC roster. He has a 4-4 record in the UFC but one of those wins was over Lyoto Machida for the light heavyweight title. He is an MMA veteran and was one of the better pound for pound fighters in the world earlier in his career but has not been able to maintain that level of performance with any regularity since coming to the UFC. But the really strange part about this main event is his opponent. Putting Brandon Vera in the main event of a nationally televised card is questionable at best. But following that questionable decision by announcing that the fight will be to determine who gets the next title shot is simply absurd. Thankfully, the UFC has backed off that announcement and instead stated that whoever among Vera, Rua, Ryan Bader and Lyoto Machida puts on the more impressive performance will receive the title shot. But even that seems a little silly given that current champion Jon Jones has already destroyed all four of these men within the last two and a half years.

Rua comes into this fight looking to get another chance to at the title he held briefly in 2010 and early 2011. His biggest asset is his muay thai, which he perfected in the early days of global MMA at the famous Chutebox academy in Brazil. His biggest liability is his cardio, which has been suspect in several fights over the past few years. Fortunately, he’s basically facing a lesser version of himself in this fight. Vera is also mainly a muay thai practitioner so this fight should take place on the feet. If Rua enters the cage in decent shape he’ll be able to handle Vera fairly easily. Vera will be in the best shape of his life as he is viewing this as his best opportunity to fight for a title. Once a vaunted prospect at heavyweight, Vera has proven to be a middling light heavyweight and has only a victory over Eliot Marshall to show for his last four UFC appearances. Even he must know he doesn’t deserve to be mentioned in the title picture but if he can somehow land a Hail Mary knee, he might earn the chance to get beat up by Jon Jones again.

Rua is the favorite coming into the fight at -350 with Bader at +290 and this is a perfect example of what is wrong with the oddsmakers who set the lines for MMA. No rational explanation exists to justify why the odds for this fight are basically the same as the odds for the fight between Ryan Bader and Lyoto Machida. Bader is far more likely to upset Machida than Vera is to upset Rua. But for some reason, the odds say those two outcomes are equally likely. Regardless, this fight has an air of inevitability around it, which is unfortunate for a main event on an important card like this. Both men are muay thai artists but Vera is not on the same level of Rua. If Rua enters the cage in fighting shape, he should be able to finish Vera. If he enters the cage in decent shape, he should be able to win a decision. The only way this fight ends with Vera getting his hand raised is if Rua shows up out of shape or if Vera lands a miracle.

Lyoto Machida vs. Ryan Bader

On a card headlined by an egregious mismatch, the second-billed fight between Ryan Bader and Lyoto Machida will be the most anticipated contest of the night for most MMA fans. Machida is a former champion looking to get back on track after following a sixteen fight win streak to open his career with a loss in three of his last four fights. One of those losses was a close decision to Quentin Jackson that many scored in favor of Machida but the other two were decisive losses to Mauricio Rua and Jon Jones in championship bouts. Bader’s situation is somewhat similar in that he followed a twelve fight winning streak to open his career by losing back to back fights to Jon Jones and Tito Ortiz before bouncing back with consecutive victories over Jason Brilz and Quentin Jackson. An impressive performance by either fighter could earn a rematch with champion Jon Jones.

Machida is one of the most interesting fighters in any weight class. He employs a unique striking style grounded in traditional martial arts. He attacks from unusual angles with unusual strikes and often hurts his opponents because they don’t see his strikes coming. He doesn’t throw with explosive power but instead does his damage by landing a varied but accurate array of punches, kicks and knees that keep his opposition off balance. Because most of his fights take place in the standing position, he has not had much opportunity to display his ground game. However, he should not be underestimated on the mat as he has some of the best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu in the light heavyweight division. His defensive wrestling is solid and because of that, he rarely ends up on his back but if he does, he is still a threat. Against a wrestleboxer like Bader, expect Machida to keep the fight standing and try to assert an advantage on the feet. He will likely look to avoid Bader’s power while picking him apart from distance until he can land something clean enough to hurt him. But if he doesn’t, he’ll be content to use his excellent movement and footwork to control the pace of the fight and earn a decision victory on points.

If Machida is exceptionally unorthodox, Bader is exceptionally orthodox. He came to the sport from the wrestling world having competed at a high level in college. Since coming to the UFC, he has added an excellent boxing game to compliment his wrestling. His boxing is highlighted by dangerous one punch knockout power in both of his hands. If he lands cleanly, he can finish any fight in an instant. In this fight, he’ll have the wrestling advantage and will need to use that to keep Machida guessing. The more he changes levels and forces Machida to think about defending takedowns the better his chances of winning will be. Machida has solid defensive wrestling so Bader may not be able to get him down and keep him down often but he needs to mix in takedowns and try to keep this fight on the inside as much as possible. He’ll need to find ways to close the distance to land his punching combinations as Machida will undoubtedly look to use his movement to stay on the outside. If Bader can find his way inside and make this an ugly fight with lots of pummeling for position against the cage and battling for takedowns, he could grind his way to a decision. And of course, if he finds Machida’s chin cleanly with a punch, he might not only win the fight but also earn his first shot at a UFC belt.

Machida enters this fight as the heavy favorite at -330 with Bader coming in at +270. Machida does have the advantage in every area other than wrestling but that doesn’t mean this fight’s outcome is predetermined. Bader’s hands can end any fight and he has the quickness to catch Machida. He also has the wrestling to force Machida against the cage and control him from there. But the more likely outcome of this fight will see Machida using his movement to keep Bader at a distance and pick him apart from there.

UFC 149 Post-Fight Breakdown

Renan Pagado vs. Urijah Faber In the main event of UFC 149, Renan Pagado used the Jose Aldo Light playbook against Faber on his way to a convincing decision victory. Pagado used the same strategy.

Renan Pagado vs. Urijah Faber

In the main event of UFC 149, Renan Pagado used the Jose Aldo Light playbook against Faber on his way to a convincing decision victory. Pagado used the same strategy of eliminating Faber’s movement with low kicks and then capitalizing with punching combinations. Faber was never in danger of being finished but was also never close to gaining any type of advantage.

Neither fighter did much in the first round. Pagado landed a low kick and couple of glancing punching combinations. Faber did his best to move and counter but never landed anything significant. The first round was the closest but I gave it to Pagado. The second round saw Pagado begin to establish control as he landed a clean punching combination off of a flying knee. He also continued to land the occasional low kick. The third round was when Pagado really began to damage Faber with the low kicks. He landed a huge one toward the end of the round and in between the third and fourth rounds, Faber had ice on his lead leg. The fourth and fifth rounds were more of the same. Pagado didn’t outclass Faber the way Aldo did but he established that he is clearly the better fighter and deserves a shot at Dominick Cruz once the champion is healthy.

The script for Urijah Faber title fights is becoming a bit repetitive at this point. Fighters with better movement and more technical striking use those advantages to keep him off balance and eventually outpoint him on the way to a decision victory. Faber’s wrestling is no longer good enough to get top level opponents to the ground and his days as a champion are probably over. But he will still continue to provide entertaining fights and will likely be remembered as the first fighter under 155 lbs to become a star. Pagado’s career is going the opposite direction. He will face Dominick Cruz for the bantamweight title in his next fight and he is capable of winning. That fight has the potential to be the best in the history of the 135 lb division and I’m already excited to see it. Renan Pagado is not the 135 lb Jose Aldo but he might soon be the 135 lb champion.

Hector Lombard vs. Tim Boetsch

In the biggest upset of the night, Tim Boetsch defeated the much heralded Hector Lombard in a perplexing fight. Lombard seemed to feel the pressure of making his first UFC appearance and never really let his hands go. He threw single shot counters whenever Boetsch came into range, which was almost never, and didn’t seem to ever get comfortable in the octagon. Boetsch fought from the outside landing kicks and occasionally coming close enough to land a punch but spent much of the fight on the outside avoiding engaging with Lombard. He used exactly that strategy to win the first round. Lombard won the second by landing the most significant strike of the fight, which was a glancing body kick that hurt Boetsch enough to allow Lombard to gain top position. But Lombard was uncharacteristically hesitant seeming to look for the perfect opportunity to strike instead of just using his incredible power to bomb punches through Boetsch’s guard. The third round was the most confusing of the fight as both fighters knew they needed the round and neither seemed willing to take a chance to win it. Neither showed any urgency and they basically traded low kicks until Lombard scored a takedown late in the round. Based on that, I gave Lombard the round and had him winning by decision. But the Canadian judges disagreed and gave Boetsch a split decision victory. Regardless of the outcome, neither fighter has any cause to blame the judges because the fight was available to be won and neither wanted to take a chance.

For Boetsch, this puts him close to the top of the division. Personally, I would rather see Chris Weidman get the next title shot as he seems to really want it while Boetsch appears to be trying to tiptoe his way into it. I guess a fight between Weidman and Boetsch to determine a number one contender would be acceptable but I have a hard time rewarding Boetsch for that performance. For Lombard, this is a huge loss. He was supposed to come in and immediately be the biggest threat to Anderson Silva but he looked far from that. Only time will tell whether this was the first step in Lombard being exposed as a small show hype machine or whether he was just nervous in his first fight on the big show. The most concerning thing to me was that he looked small. He carries a lot of muscle and if he was willing to drop some of that, he could easily cut to 170 lbs. Part of success in the UFC is finding the optimal weight class and if Lombard struggles at 185, he will have to seriously consider making the cut.

Cheick Kongo vs. Shawn Jordan

Cheick Kongo bounced back from his TKO loss to Mark Hunt with a plodding decision victory over Shawn Jordan. Most of the fight took place against the cage as the fighters battled for position and worked for takedowns that they would never get. Jordan pressed the action in the first round keeping Kongo’s back to the cage and working for takedowns. Even though he was completely unsuccessful, he controlled the fight and I gave the round to him. After working so hard in the first round, Jordan seemed to tire and Kongo began to get the advantage pushing Jordan against the cage. Kongo also managed to separate and land a couple of damaging knees and combinations. He never hurt Jordan but he did enough to win the round. The third round was fought between two exhausted fighters and consisted mainly of Kongo pushing Jordan up against the fence. Neither fighter did any real damage but Kongo had Jordan’s back to the cage for most of the round giving him the edge in scoring, which was enough to win the fight. Neither fighter was impressive and both showed a surprising lack of conditioning.

Kongo appears to be solidified as a mid-level heavyweight who has already reached the peak of his UFC success. If he faces a major step up in competition in his next fight, he will likely lose. Jordan is actually the more promising of the two fighters. Hopefully he will learn from this experience and use it to motivate him in taking his conditioning to another level. Some young fighters need to feel the frustration that comes from losing a winnable fight because of an empty gas tank to understand how hard they need to work in the gym. Jordan now knows that what he has been doing thus far isn’t enough and I expect him to show significant improvement in his next fight.

Ebersole vs. Head

In the first of two big upsets on the night, James Head defeated Brian Ebersole via split decision. Ebersole’s willingness to take fights on short notice finally caught up to him in this fight. He was clearly the smaller fighter as he is in the midst of cutting to lightweight and the fight looked exactly the way one would expect a fight between a lightweight and a welterweight to look. Head was much stronger and landed the more damaging strikes. Ebersole was totally unsuccessful in gaining any sort of grappling control over his opponent and was reduced to weak attempts to pull guard to try to get the fight to the ground. Despite all of that, the fight was actually even going into the final round. Ebersole’s unorthodox movement and striking was enough to earn him the second round after Head had won the first round. The third round was a disappointingly lackluster display from both fighters considering that the outcome of the fight was at stake. By the middle of the third round, Ebersole seemed bored and resigned to the fact that even though Head was not a threat to him in any way, the size difference was too much to overcome. Head seemed to realize the same thing but refused to try to take advantage of it settling instead to stuff Ebersole’s takedowns and throw an occasional combination. Ebersole finally got a takedown at the end of the round and moved to mount, which was the most significant point in the round and because of that, I gave the round and the fight to Ebersole. But Head won a split decision on the judges’ scorecards and Ebersole has no room to argue after his weak effort in the third round. Let’s hope this was a result of Ebersole being in the middle of a weight cutting process and nothing more. For Head, this was a chance to earn an impressive victory over an unprepared opponent and he was unable to do anything that makes him look like he’ll be a factor in the UFC.

Matt Riddle vs. Chris Clements

Matt Riddle took a step forward in his UFC career by controlling his fight with Chris Clements and eventually finishing via an impressive arm triangle in the third round. Riddle controlled most of the first round landing several takedowns and keeping Clements off balance. Clements seemed to be the better striker but was never able to get comfortable and Riddle landed the biggest strike of the fight when he hurt Clements with a liver kick. The second round saw more of the same with Riddle eventually taking Clements back after controlling much of the round on the ground. The third round started with Riddle making an ill fated attempt to entertain the crowd by engaging in exchanges with Clements and coming out on the losing end. He eventually smartly took the fight to the ground again to regain control. Clements managed to get back to his feet and attempt a spinning back fist but Riddle countered by locking up an arm triangle in the standing position. From there, he used an outside trip to take Clements down into side control and ended the fight with an impressive submission victory. Riddle showed improvement in this fight and if he continues to focus more on the type of execution that locked up that submission and less on entertaining the fans, he could make some headway in the welterweight division. Clements showed decent striking but will need to work hard on his wrestling if he wants to last in the UFC.