Tag: gambling addiction enabler

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 167: St. Pierre vs. Hendricks’ Edition


(JUST TAKE MY MONEY ALREADY!! Image via Adam Doyle.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

With a win over Johny Hendricks this weekend, welterweight kingpin Georges St. Pierre will break *three* UFC records: Most UFC wins ever (!), Most title bout wins ever (!!) and dependent on how long the fight lasts, most octagon hours logged ever (meh). It’s an intriguing prospect to say the least, and a fight that headlines a card stacked to the brim with equally intriguing prospects and matchups.

But you don’t care about octagon records or intriguing prospects, you care about money. Cash. Doubloons. “A whole lotta Kale chips,” if you know what I’m saying. That’s where we come in, delivering the pound-for-pound best gambling advice week after week after tireless week. So join us after the jump to sneak a peek at the UFC 167 gambling lines (courtesy of BestFightOdds) and get in on more gambling advice than your broke ass will even know what to do with.

Stay the Hell Away From:

Josh Koscheck (-105) vs. Tyron Woodley (-115)

Koscheck is looking to avoid losing his third straight while Woodley will be trying to avoid going 1-3 in his last four bouts. The skill sets of both fighters here are very similar — strong wrestlers who often opt for a stand up affair — hence the almost even odds here. But in a game of tag where both fighters have found success (coupled with Fraggle’s penchant for his signature eye poke), picking a winner at the window is a true coin flip. Skip it.


(JUST TAKE MY MONEY ALREADY!! Image via Adam Doyle.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

With a win over Johny Hendricks this weekend, welterweight kingpin Georges St. Pierre will break *three* UFC records: Most UFC wins ever (!), Most title bout wins ever (!!) and dependent on how long the fight lasts, most octagon hours logged ever (meh). It’s an intriguing prospect to say the least, and a fight that headlines a card stacked to the brim with equally intriguing prospects and matchups.

But you don’t care about octagon records or intriguing prospects, you care about money. Cash. Doubloons. “A whole lotta Kale chips,” if you know what I’m saying. That’s where we come in, delivering the pound-for-pound best gambling advice week after week after tireless week. So join us after the jump to sneak a peek at the UFC 167 gambling lines (courtesy of BestFightOdds) and get in on more gambling advice than your broke ass will even know what to do with.

Stay the Hell Away From:

Josh Koscheck (-105) vs. Tyron Woodley (-115)

Koscheck is looking to avoid losing his third straight while Woodley will be trying to avoid going 1-3 in his last four bouts. The skill sets of both fighters here are very similar — strong wrestlers who often opt for a stand up affair — hence the almost even odds here. But in a game of tag where both fighters have found success (coupled with Fraggle’s penchant for his signature eye poke), picking a winner at the window is a true coin flip. Skip it.

The Good Dogs:

Brian Ebersole (+180) vs. Rick Story (-220)

Ebersole coming in at +180 is a great line and possibly overgenerous when taking into account that Brian’s last loss came on short notice. That he’s been battling injuries ever since is not the most confidence-inspiring aspect of this fight, but Ebersole is still worth taking a risk on with a full training camp under his belt. Story was a world beater at one point but has gone 2-4 over his past six fights. In a bout that has a high probability of going the distance, Ebersole may be able to employ a grappling centric approach to nullify Story and get a decision win.

Erik Perez (-355) vs. Edwin Figueroa (+295)

Perez is the heavy favorite at -330 and it may be safe to say Figueroa is fighting for a job. The prop bet that this fight goes to decision is +120 and worth the investment, as Figueroa has only been finished once in his career and has gone the distance in 3 of his 5 UFC appearances. Perez is coming off a loss in his toughest test thus far, a decision loss to Takeya Mizugaki at Fight Night 27, while Edwin has shown he can go the distance with one of the best the division has to offer in Michael McDonald. +120 fight goes the distance.

Donald Cerrone (-115) vs. Evan Dunham (-105)

Cerrone is the very slight favorite here, but with a -195 prop that the fight goes the distance, I suggest placing two equally small amount wagers on either fighter to win by decision as a decent risk-reward option. Like the last card, this fight jumps off the page with regards to FOTN and should pay out at about +500 should it obtain that honor, making it too hard to pass up. If it is half as exciting as Sanchez vs. Melendez, that should be good enough to get the nod from Dana.

Tim Elliott (-155) vs. Ali Bagautinov (+135)

I might be in the minority here, but +135 for Bagautinov to couple his sambo background with a Greg Jackson game plan seems all too good to pass up. Elliott is the more experienced fighter and will not be held down for three rounds, but may be worried about this prospect more so than his opponent. If Bagautinov can mix up his attack like Dodson did against Elliott, he may find a way to stifle Elliott’s offense en route to a decision win. Elliott will try to earn respect early with a well timed combination and the confidence he gains could turn this fight into another solid back and forth FOTN candidate as well. +120 Bagautinov wins.

Other Main Card Bouts:

Rory MacDonald (-350) vs. Robbie Lawler (+290)

Since returning to the UFC ‘s 170-pound division, Robbie has finished both of his fights in impressive fashion and seems to be primed for one last run towards a title shot. Standing in Lawler’s way is the heavy favorite and GSP protégé Rory MacDonald, who many believe is simply too strong for Lawler to handle. This fight may play out like Larkin vs. Lawler, where Larkin’s diverse striking and effective G-n-P eventually lead to a decision win for Lorenz. Larkin is a 185er and as time goes on McDonald may be as well, so look for McDonald to use his reach, be first, and keep Robbie guessing at a distance.

Rashad Evans (-190) vs. Chael Sonnen (+165)

Floating around -200, Rashad makes the parlay. While Evans has shown some inconsistencies in his game as of late, one thing he has always proved is that he will not be out grappled by his opponent. Chael definitely is a high-level wrestler, a true threat to take Rashad down, but as we saw against Jones, is also not immune to being controlled on the ground by a talented/bigger grappler either. Rashad can win this fight both standing and on the mat; Chael really is not known for his striking prowess and will have to be the first fighter to dominate Rashad on the ground if he is to win. Rashad makes the parlay with more ways to win and the assumption that he is a better wrestler than Chael.

Georges St. Pierre (-270) vs. Johny Hendricks (+230)

Johny Hendricks will be bringing the most devastating left hand the WW division has to offer against *the* best the WW division has to offer. Johny is also being touted as the best wrestler GSP has ever fought, a slight against Matt Hughes perhaps, but maybe true nonetheless. The problem is, what if Johnny is the best wrestler GSP has ever faced and he still gets taken down by Georges at will like Hughes, Koscheck and Fitch? What if GSP favors footwork and one of the most underrated jabs (Freddie Roach inspired) in MMA to create enough distance to keep the fight standing and outside of Hendricks striking range?

The one caveat is that GSP’s most recent loss stemmed from a well-placed punch, and there’s no arguing that Johny Hendricks can do more with one punch than most. GSP was also caught clock watching a little over halfway into his last fight with Diaz, but Johnny is not renowned for exploiting his opponent’s cardio like Nick is. GSP should be able to do what GSP does, find a way to get the fight where he wants it to be and keep it there for 25 minutes. GSP to win -270.

Parlay 1
Leites-Evans

Parlay 2
Leites-MacDonald-GSP

Parlay 3
Evans-Ebersole

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 166: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos’ Edition

By Dan “Get Off Me” George and Jared Jones

This weekend, the be all end all title fight between Junior Dos Santos and Cain Velasquez is going down at UFC 166, so to ring in this special occasion, we’ve decided to switch things up for this edition of the Gambling Addiction Enabler. Not only will you be receiving the trusted, well-researched advice of Dan “Get Off Me” George, but additionally, CagePotato staff writer (and former GAE master-picker) Jared Jones will be jumping in to deliver the onslaught of gifs and contradictory advice that you all know and love.

Without further ado, let’s get to the fights in question…

Stay the Hell Away From:

Hector Lombard (-185) vs. Nate Marquardt (+155)

DG: This fight should be at pick’em odds — proposing either fighter as a clear favorite is simply reckless and ignorant of the fact that both fighters have been prone to shockingly inconsistent performances as of late. On any given night, these guys can end a fight in spectacular fashion. Does Nate “The Great” show up and fight the Lombard we saw against Okami and Boetsch, or does he meet the man they call Shango and fight like he did against Saffiedine and Ellenberger? I’ll tentatively pick Marquardt here.

JJ: Well, if it’s “reckless and ignorant” that you want, you’ve come to the right source. (*sets fully-loaded revolver on table and spins it*)

I’m surprised you neglected to mention that Lombard will be fighting at welterweight for the first time in his UFC career, in what is one of the most transparent “Dropping a weight class to save your career” bouts in MMA History. Also, Lombard’s weight cut is going so poorly that he’s already talking about moving back up to middleweight. He’s assuming, of course, that the UFC won’t sever their ties with someone as overpaid as him following this weekend, which is wishful thinking in my opinion. Lombard is basically Rousimar Palhares + striking and since Marquardt already beat Palhares, MMAMath predicts a dominant victory for Marquardt 9.9 times out of 10. Reckless? Yes. Ignorant? Yes.

By Dan “Get Off Me” George and Jared Jones

This weekend, the be all end all title fight between Junior Dos Santos and Cain Velasquez is going down at UFC 166, so to ring in this special occasion, we’ve decided to switch things up for this edition of the Gambling Addiction Enabler. Not only will you be receiving the trusted, well-researched advice of Dan “Get Off Me” George, but additionally, CagePotato staff writer (and former GAE master-picker) Jared Jones will be jumping in to deliver the onslaught of gifs and contradictory advice that you all know and love.

Without further ado, let’s get to the fights in question…

Stay the Hell Away From:

Hector Lombard (-185) vs. Nate Marquardt (+155)

DG: This fight should be at pick’em odds — proposing either fighter as a clear favorite is simply reckless and ignorant of the fact that both fighters have been prone to shockingly inconsistent performances as of late. On any given night, these guys can end a fight in spectacular fashion. Does Nate “The Great” show up and fight the Lombard we saw against Okami and Boetsch, or does he meet the man they call Shango and fight like he did against Saffiedine and Ellenberger? I’ll tentatively pick Marquardt here.

JJ: Well, if it’s “reckless and ignorant” that you want, you’ve come to the right source. (*sets fully-loaded revolver on table and spins it*)

I’m surprised you neglected to mention that Lombard will be fighting at welterweight for the first time in his UFC career, in what is one of the most transparent “Dropping a weight class to save your career” bouts in MMA History. Also, Lombard’s weight cut is going so poorly that he’s already talking about moving back up to middleweight. He’s assuming, of course, that the UFC won’t sever their ties with someone as overpaid as him following this weekend, which is wishful thinking in my opinion. Lombard is basically Rousimar Palhares + striking and since Marquardt already beat Palhares, MMAMath predicts a dominant victory for Marquardt 9.9 times out of 10. Reckless? Yes. Ignorant? Yes.

Daniel Cormier (-600) vs. Roy Nelson (+450)

JJ: Roy Nelson is coming off one of the worst beatdowns of his career and the self-admitted “crappiest camp of his career.” The latter statement might just be “Big Country’s” way of lamenting his recently instilled Whopper-free diet, but in any case, you’d have to be a fool to place an outright bet on either of these guys.

DG: -165 that this fight goes to decision is the only action this fight merits. Cormier should be able to keep Roy guessing, and when Roy’s guessing he’s losing fights. When Roy loses fights, he loses by decision, as weapons are still not allowed inside the cage. Cormier is the heavy favorite but Roy has only lost by decision in the UFC so far and should keep that stat alive this weekend.

The Good Dogs:

T.J. Waldburger (+130) vs. Adlan Amagov (-160)

DG: Amagov is coming off a successful UFC debut as the favorite here, but T.J. Waldburger is a live dog as many believe Adlan will look to take this fight to the ground. Waldburger has managed to receive a SOTN bonus in 2011 and 2012….2013 is almost over and T.J. may be able to keep his streak alive by finding a way to catch Amagov from his guard. Waldburger will not go away easily in his own backyard and if the fight goes to decision, those who took the plus money option may be pleasantly surprised.

JJ: Who in their right mind thinks Adlan Amagov is going to take this fight to the ground? Against a grappling wizard like Waldburger?! With two SOTN bonuses in his past four fights?!!

Amagov by spinning shit, round 1. Moving on…

Gabriel Gonzaga (+175) vs Shawn Jordan (-210)

DG: Pop quiz time: Who is the only fighter (other than Vitor Belfort) to have all of their UFC wins come inside the distance? It’s none other than +300 to win inside the distance on Saturday night, Gabriel Gonzaga. The prospective profit almost doubles simply picking Gonzaga to win inside the distance vs. simply winning the fight, risk reward makes this a good dog pick by default.

JJ: Wait, so all of Gonzaga’s wins have come inside the distance, yet he’s facing 3-to-1 odds to beat Shawn Jordan inside the distance? Prop bets are for the weak: All my monies on Gonzaga by Grape Ape Rape inside the first. Joke, you are a bad.

Gilbert Melendez (-800) vs. Diego Sanchez (+550)

JJ: Dan is going to suggest that you place your money on Sanchez or some weird-ass prop bet that most of our bookies don’t even offer. Just watch. My reaction to this advice is as follows:

DG: This bout is far more competitive than the line suggests (Ed note: TOLD YOU SO). That line is Jones vs. Sonnen territory and while Melendez is the right favorite, he pays next to nothing as an outright pick (even to win by decision at -175 is a worthwhile pick but still not a plus money option). So where can you find the opportunity to make over 4-to-1 on your investment in this fight without predicting a winner or loser? Melendez vs. Sanchez for FOTN. Looking at the fights on paper, this fight stands out above the rest and should be selected at the end of the night by Dana for the honors.

Cain Velasquez (-200) vs. Junior dos Santos (+170)

DG: Cain put on a clinic during his second bout with Dos Santos to take back the HW title, surprisingly out-striking the man who KO’d him only five months prior. The belief that the real Cain was not available for Zuffa’s FOX debut was supported with every jab and overhand right that the champ landed against JDS the second time around. Regardless of what the Brazilian will tell you, overtraining was most likely not the culprit for Dos Santos losing the rematch — it is far more likely that Velasquez is simply better in the long run. That said, JDS is a live dog because he is fighting an opponent he has beaten before and his price tag is paying out the highest return in his career. The prop that JDS wins via KO/TKO at +255 is the good dog pick, as it is rather clear Junior will not win any cardio races with Cain or steal any rounds along the way to a decision win. It’s all or nothing and it’s 2.5x your money if Cain gets caught again.

JJ: How quickly you forget UFC 90, Dan. Had any of us predicted that Dos Santos would treat Fabricio Werdum‘s face like a door on the TUF set at that event, we would have made 8 times our wager back. But you’re right about one thing, Dos Santos needs to catch Velasquez in the opening rounds if he hopes to hear a Brazilian mariachi version of “Gonna Fly Now” upon his return trip home. His takedown defense, however, is going to have to be impeccable for this to happen. I see this fight going down a lot like the second incarnation, with Velasquez wearing JDS down and potentially finishing him with GnP sometime in the championship rounds. But hey, there’s always the Klitschko’s, right Junior?

Dan’s Parlay Picks
Parlay 1: Dodson-Boetsch
Parlay 2: Jordan-K.J. Noons-Ferguson
Parlay 3: Waldburger-Fili-Kaufman

Jared’s Parlay Pick:
Parlay 1: $20 on Velasquez-Dodson-Boetsch returns $41.66

Gambling Addiction Enabler — ‘UFC 165: Jones vs. Gustafsson’ Edition

(Promo via UFC.com. Idea via explodingactresses.tumblr.com)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This Saturday night, a light heavyweight title fight is going down between the division’s long-standing champion and a really tall Swede that the UFC desperately wants you to believe stands a chance at beating said champion. Not that we’re counting Alexander Gustafsson completely out of his fight with JBJ, it’s just…well…we’ve already gone over that.

In any case, UFC 165 actually offers a handful of fights that aren’t as one-sided as Blind Mike Tyson vs. a dartboard, so join us after the jump as we break down a couple of the undercard bouts and the entire main card in the hopes of scoring you Taters some fast cash with absolute minimal effort. All betting lines courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Undercard bouts:

Alex Caceres (-130)vs. Roland Delorme (+110)

Caceres is the slight favorite here and has looked impressive (maybe due to elevated levels of “irie”) since his drop to bantamweight, using his size and reach — sometimes a little wild — to his advantage. Delorme is floating around +120 territory and while he may not have the tools to finish Caceres or even outpoint the former Team GSP member, he certainly is well rounded enough to push this fight to the cards. +110 prop that this fight goes the distance is a nice value as the Canadian underdog is surely not going to go away easy in this fight.


(Promo via UFC.com. Idea via explodingactresses.tumblr.com)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This Saturday night, a light heavyweight title fight is going down between the division’s long-standing champion and a really tall Swede that the UFC desperately wants you to believe stands a chance at beating said champion. Not that we’re counting Alexander Gustafsson completely out of his fight with JBJ, it’s just…well…we’ve already gone over that.

In any case, UFC 165 actually offers a handful of fights that aren’t as one-sided as Blind Mike Tyson vs. a dartboard, so join us after the jump as we break down a couple of the undercard bouts and the entire main card in the hopes of scoring you Taters some fast cash with absolute minimal effort. All betting lines courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Undercard bouts:

Alex Caceres (-130)vs. Roland Delorme (+110)

Caceres is the slight favorite here and has looked impressive (maybe due to elevated levels of “irie”) since his drop to bantamweight, using his size and reach — sometimes a little wild — to his advantage. Delorme is floating around +120 territory and while he may not have the tools to finish Caceres or even outpoint the former Team GSP member, he certainly is well rounded enough to push this fight to the cards. +110 prop that this fight goes the distance is a nice value as the Canadian underdog is surely not going to go away easy in this fight.

Jesse Ronson (-160) vs. Michel Prazeres (+140)

File this under the “Good Dog” category, as the 16-1 Brazilian Prazeres is the most notable underdog on the preliminary card. Michel was overwhelmed in his UFC debut against Paulo Thiago but he showed that he can hang in there against UFC-level talent, something Ronson has yet to show. At -160, Ronson is just as risky a pick when factoring in “Octagon jitters” and the talent gap between the UFC and other organizations. Prazeres as a secondary parlay option or single bet my be a dog worth taking.

Main Card:

Pat Healy (+205) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (-250)

In keeping with the CagePotato traditions of old, I would have to assign a “Stay the Hell Away From” status to this fight from a gambler’s perspective. Khabib is a stud, but at -250 against another bulldozer like Healy is simply too risky. Healy at +205 against the sambo expert who has an underrated stand up game may be the proverbial carrot dangling in front of the donkey, as we have yet to see the Eagle dominated or controlled by his opponent inside the Octagon. The best option would be the -170 prop that this fight goes the distance, as it may very well involve lots of cage work and scrambling on the ground.

Costa Philippou (-185) vs. Francis Carmont (+165)

At -185, Philippou is parlay bound and perhaps the best line offered on the entire card. Carmont’s last two wins inside the Octagon have been controversial decisions to competition who have not cracked the top 10 in the division. Costa is a potential contender right now who is able to stop the takedown and use his excellent striking to break down his opponents. Philippou proved in his fight with Boetsch that he will not be overpowered and that he can hit hard enough to put away some of the top competition that the 185 division has to offer. Costa -185 makes the parlay.

Brendan Schaub (-105) vs. Matt Mitrione (-120)

Meathead is the small -120 favorite against the Hybrid, who promises to teach his buddy what martial arts is all about. A brief numbers crunch suggests that this fight will end via a (T)KO for Mitrione, with 5 out of his 6 wins coming via KO and 3 of Schaub’s losses coming via exactly that. Schaub used his ground game to keep Lavar Johnson at bay and Mitrione has shown some weakness with grappling exchanges (against Cheick Kongo, of all people), but the fact that Schaub is vulnerable to the KO at all times tilts the odds in Matt’s favor here. Mitrione to win at -120 is a pick’em worth, uh, picking.

Renan Barao (-750) vs. Eddie Wineland (+525)

Wowza. Placing any money on a straight bet here is rather ludicrous, so the most alluring option may be the prop bet that Barao is able to submit Wineland (currently residing around +135) due to the fact that the former WEC champ has proven vulnerable to the takedown/submission over the course of his career. Barao is often content to keep his fights standing, but much like Pickett, Wineland is a forward moving fighter who likes to press his opponent. Barao to submit Wineland +135 prop bet.

Jon Jones (-1100) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (+700)

Jones at -1000 means u better bring the brinks truck if you want to make money simply picking the alpha 205’er to walk away the winner on Saturday night. Gustafsson is certainly as big as Jones, but far less skilled on the ground compared to the competition Jones has faced/dominated as of late. Gustafsson’s best chance comes with keeping this fight standing, something I believe he can do in the early stages of the fight, not so much because he wants to, but that Jones will be looking to beat Gustafsson where he is best (like he did with Chael on the ground). Ultimately the prop that this fight will start the 3rd round for -155 is a decent price, I guess if you believe Jones will entertain striking with Gustaffson for the first two rounds before he looks to close the fight out.

Parlay 1
-Philippou + Omielanczuk

Parlay 2
-Philippou + Prazeres

Props
-Caceres/Delorme fight goes the distance
-Healy/Nurmagomedov fight goes the distance
-Barao wins via submission
-Gustafsson/Jones fight starts round 3

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 164: Henderson vs. Pettis II’ Edition

(The UFC 164 marketing strategy summed up in less than 30 seconds.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This Saturday night, Zuffa brings us perhaps the most anticipated title rematch in lightweight history when Benson Henderson attempts to remove a stain from his soul against the man responsible for leaving said stain, new/interim #1 contender Anthony Pettis. The preliminary portion of the card may not boast many recognizable names (which is a nice way of saying it’s garbage-ass) but the PPV lineup is a veritable potpourri of grizzled veterans and surging prospects, with a little bit of something for everyone both new and old to MMA.

So come along as we head to Milwaukee, Wisconsin and highlight the undercard bout you stand the best chance of banking on as well as all of the main card bouts for UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis II. All lines courtesy of BestFightOdds, per usual.

Undercard bout:

Soa Palelei (+175) vs. Nikita Krylov (-210)

The heavy-handed Australian comes in as the +180ish underdog against Ukrainian (is game to you?) submission specialist and -200 favorite Nikita Krylov. Palelei has a chance to payout early in this fight if he is able to use his striking effectively, but the 16 year age gap between the fighters may prove the difference if Krylov’s is able to sustain the early onslaught from Soa. With this in mind, Palelei has been submitted once in his career and 7 out of his last 8 wins (Well, 6 out of 8. Bob Sapp no longer counts.) have come in the first round. +180 for Palelei is an underdog worth taking.


(The UFC 164 marketing strategy summed up in less than 30 seconds.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This Saturday night, Zuffa brings us perhaps the most anticipated title rematch in lightweight history when Benson Henderson attempts to remove a stain from his soul against the man responsible for leaving said stain, new/interim #1 contender Anthony Pettis. The preliminary portion of the card may not boast many recognizable names (which is a nice way of saying it’s garbage-ass) but the PPV lineup is a veritable potpourri of grizzled veterans and surging prospects, with a little bit of something for everyone both new and old to MMA.

So come along as we head to Milwaukee, Wisconsin and highlight the undercard bout you stand the best chance of banking on as well as all of the main card bouts for UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis II. All lines courtesy of BestFightOdds, per usual.

Undercard bout:

Soa Palelei (+175) vs. Nikita Krylov (-210)

The heavy-handed Australian comes in as the +180ish underdog against Ukrainian (is game to you?) submission specialist and -200 favorite Nikita Krylov. Palelei has a chance to payout early in this fight if he is able to use his striking effectively, but the 16 year age gap between the fighters may prove the difference if Krylov’s is able to sustain the early onslaught from Soa. With this in mind, Palelei has been submitted once in his career and 7 out of his last 8 wins (Well, 6 out of 8. Bob Sapp no longer counts.) have come in the first round. +180 for Palelei is an underdog worth taking.

Main Card:

Dustin Poirier (+135) vs. Erik Koch (-155)

Both fighters are coming off tough losses to high-level competition and will be looking to use the other as a stepping stone back to the short list of top contenders at featherweight. Fighting out of his home town, Koch is the -150 favorite to the +130 Poirier and this line should come closer to even odds by fight time. Poirier has a three inch reach advantage and Koch has battled some injury issues which showed in his second round battering at the hands of Lamas back at UFC on FOX 6. +130 for Poirier to win based on the better price and the fact that he has less question marks hanging over his head going into this fight.

Ben Rothwell (+110) vs. Brandon Vera (-130)

Ben Rothwell is the +100 underdog to -130 Brandon Vera, who is returning to heavy weight after losing while trying to put his mouth piece in against Shogun at UFC on FOX 4. Vera is the right favorite and should be fast enough to get in and out against Rothwell in the early stages of the fight, which should wear out Big Ben as the fight unfolds. If Rothwell cannot find a way to pressure Vera against the cage and put “The Truth” on his back, he may be at the mercy of a technically sound striking clinic. Vera to avoid the takedown and best Rothwell in the stand up game -130.

Chad Mendes (-465) vs. Clay Guida (+370)

-465 for Mendes to have his hand raised at the end of this fight is perhaps worth placing in a parlay, but +115 that Mendes has to win by decision is a compelling prop bet when looking at his opponent. Clay Guida may not be the most threatening fighter out there, but he has fought and survived against top lightweights who pose similar skill sets to that of Mendes. Guida is a survivor and while he may get Clay Guida’d by Chad, he should be able to stay out of range (like he did against Maynard) on the feet and out of trouble on the mat (like he did against Bendo) to avoid losing inside the distance. Mendes to win via decision +115.

Frank Mir (+155) vs. Josh Barnett (-175)

Josh Barnett’s biggest win since 2007 is against Sergei Kharitonov, which really does not inspire confidence when you examine the Warmaster’s steady diet of out grappling one-dimensional competition as of late. Frank Mir is closer to Daniel Cormier than the rest of Josh’s more recent opponents and while he may get put on his back, he is surely going to be difficult to stop from there. +130 that fight goes to decision is where the safest option may be — Barnett is not known for his GnP KO’s or being the victim of a TKO or submission lately. +130 fight goes to a decision.

Benson Henderson (-120) vs. Anthony Pettis (+100)

The bookies firmly believe that lighting will not strike twice. If you look into the prop bets, Pettis is currently +300 to win by decision, but they are far less certain when it comes to whether or not Pettis will be able to win the lightweight title in his home town. Benson Henderson has bounced back well from losing his WEC belt, going on to win the UFC lightweight belt (a.k.a the one that matters) and successfully defending it 3 times now.

Many presume the kick heard round the world was what won Pettis the first encounter, but re-watching this fight, (despite being thoroughly entertained) it is rather evident that Pettis is just as fast as Bendo and the clear cut stronger striker of the two. Henderson may have an advantage in having fought 5 rounds for 4 straight fights now, but Pettis has never showed cardio as an issue in the past and beat Bendo on the cards after five rounds. Pettis at even money to become the new champ and +300 that Pettis wins (in hometown on the cards)…..+500 for the bold ones who think the decision will be unanimous.

Parlay 1
-Mendes + Vera

Parlay 2
-Mendes + Pettis

Parlay 3 (underdog parlay)
-Palelei + Poirier

Props
-Mendes wins via decision
-Barnett/Mir fight goes the distance
-Pettis wins via decision

Please share your thoughts on who you like CP nation. Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 163: Aldo vs. Korean Zombie’ Edition

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This Saturday night, Zuffa heads to Rio de Janeiro — home of beautiful beaches and even more beautiful beetches (waka waka!) — where a seemingly unstoppable champion plans to defend his featherweight strap against a zombie. Come on, that’s gotta be worth sixty bucks. This may be a PPV light on star power, but we all know what happened the last time a card held in Brazil without much star power turned out.

And with each pay-per-view comes the best damn gambling advice you will find on the Internet (YOU SHUT YOUR WHORE MOUTH), so join us as we break down some of the undercard as well as all of the main card bouts for UFC 163. All odds courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Undercard bouts:

Ian McCall (-380) vs. Iliarde Santos (+315)

In lieu of Demetrious Johnson’s performance last week, -400 for Ian McCall to beat Santos is parlay bound. Santos had trouble getting out of the gate in his UFC debut and will surely put up a stronger performance, but “Uncle Creepy” has fought 6 rounds (and even won a few!) with the champion in the division. There is always a possibility of the hometown judging playing the culprit or Ian having a mental breakdown whilst reflecting on his life as of late, but if McCall loses here, it will almost be worth losing the bet to see what happens next with him. McCall to win.

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This Saturday night, Zuffa heads to Rio de Janeiro — home of beautiful beaches and even more beautiful beetches (waka waka!) – where a seemingly unstoppable champion plans to defend his featherweight strap against a zombie. Come on, that’s gotta be worth sixty bucks. This may be a PPV light on star power, but we all know what happened the last time a card held in Brazil without much star power turned out.

And with each pay-per-view comes the best damn gambling advice you will find on the Internet (YOU SHUT YOUR WHORE MOUTH), so join us as we break down some of the undercard as well as all of the main card bouts for UFC 163. All odds courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Undercard bouts:

Ian McCall (-380) vs. Iliarde Santos (+315)

In lieu of Demetrious Johnson’s performance last week, -400 for Ian McCall to beat Santos is parlay bound. Santos had trouble getting out of the gate in his UFC debut and will surely put up a stronger performance, but “Uncle Creepy” has fought 6 rounds (and even won a few!) with the champion in the division. There is always a possibility of the hometown judging playing the culprit or Ian having a mental breakdown whilst reflecting on his life as of late, but if McCall loses here, it will almost be worth losing the bet to see what happens next with him. McCall to win.

Vinny Magalhaes (-400) vs. Anthony Perosh (+325)

Anthony Perosh comes in as the +300 underdog, partly thanks to his 7 second appearance in his last Octagon performance. The “Hippo” is well rounded, with his underrated ground game allowing him to pick up two UFC wins as the underdog, but nothing short of the BJJ elite can surprise the decorated grappling star in Magalhaes on the mat. Magalhaes looked strong in his return to the Octagon and looking at Anthony’s willingness to engage in grappling, Vinny to win by submission at +180 is also a nice prop bet. Vinny to win on the parlay.

Main Card PPV:

John Lineker (-440) vs Jose Thome (+350)

Having not lost in 5 years, Jose Thome brings his 33-3 record to his Octagon debut against the always exciting -440 favorite John Lineker. The price is too steep for the favorite and laying anything on the dark horse who is north of 30 years old (where have you been with that record?) is a crapshoot at best. Your best bet on this one is a prop: -185 that this fight does not go to decision. The heavy favorite is always looking for the finish and Jose’s 3 losses all coming inside the distance, with only 3 of his 36 fights going to the cards.

Thales Leites (-125) vs. Tom Watson (+105)

Coming off a KOTN and FOTN bonus, Watson enters as the slight underdog against the returning Thales Leites. Before stopping Stanislav Nedkov, Watson showed improved takedown defense by nullifying the Bulgarian’s grappling game. Unlike his fellow BJJ black belt, Leites is not even remotely a threat in the stand up game compared to Nedkov, so it will be interesting to see how Watson handles the relentless grappling-centric attack of Thales. Watson is training with Jackson’s MMA and at TriStar, which may very well be the right recipe to beat the one time (thankfully) title contender at Middleweight. Watson for the upset.

Cezar Ferreira (-425) vs. Thiago Santos (+340)

With only one loss, Santos at +340 to upset the Ferreira is definitely the best long shot payout on the card. Santos has a little bit of everything to offer here, creative striking and strong grappling, whereas Cezar is paying about 20 cents on the dollar for winning TUF Brazil. Santos as long shot underdog +340 or pass.

Lyoto Machida (-370) vs. Phil Davis (+310)

After Gustafsson, the winner of this fight may be considered the next number one contender du jour (short of this guy maybe) at 205lbs. The stand up fight will be Lyoto’s to lose and the grappling advantages Davis may have will only be useful if the Penn State alum can catch Machida in one spot long enough to secure a takedown. The Dragon is next to impossible to take down, next to impossible to hit and almost next to impossible to watch at times. Davis will have to come out strong and try to get this fight to the ground early to avoid looking up at the clock halfway through the third round realizing he needs to finish the fight to win. Machida to win by decision +115 for a prop bet is a solid risk in this 3 rounder.

Jose Aldo (-800) vs. Chan Sung Jung (+550)

-800 for the high rollers is almost worth it here as next to nobody is giving the Korean Zombie a chance to walk away with Aldo’s belt this weekend. This is very much like the odds for Cain Velasquez vs Antonio Silva 2 (in case the first fight left anything to the imagination), with the public dismissing Bigfoot and calling squash match almost unanimously. There is the belief that Jung’s forward fighting style will give Aldo problems, which in retrospect, has been said about many of Aldo’s opponents until the champion connects with his patented leg kicks or “WTF was that?” jab and uppercut combos.

The prop betting on fight duration is interesting, seeing as Jung has no problem being hit. Starting with -114 that fight does not start 3rd round, -169 that fight does not start 4th round and finally -230 Aldo wins inside the distance. Aldo to win (and jump out of the Octagon then into the crowd before Bruce Buffer makes the official announcement).

Parlay 1

-Magalhaes+Machida+Aldo

Parlay 2

-Watson+McCall

Props

-Lineker vs Thome fight does not go the distance
-Magalhaes to win by submission
-Machida to win by decision
-Aldo to win inside the distance
-Aldo/Jung does not start round 3 or 4, your pick

Please share your thoughts on who you like CP nation. Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 162: ‘Silva vs. Weidman’ Edition

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This Saturday night, a mixed martial arts legend will look to further cement his legacy while a rising prospect and undefeated fighter will try not to let Georges down and become the next 185lbs sensation. Somebody’s 0 in the Octagon has to go when Champion Anderson Silva defends his middleweight title against Chris Weidman at UFC 162.

Come along as we head to Las Vegas and breakdown some of the undercard as well as all of the main card bouts for Zuffa’s latest 2013 PPV offering. All betting lines courtesy of BestFightOdds, as usual.

Undercard bouts:

Seth Baczynski (-280) vs Brian Melancon (+240)

Melancon makes his UFC debut as the +250 underdog after a 1-1 record in Strikeforce against a -300 Seth Baczynski. “The Polish Pistola,” who is built like a middleweight, will enjoy a 7 inch height advantage and should be able to keep the fight standing to compliment his striking advantage in this bout. Melancon has yet to be finished and fight goes the distance at -195 is a fairly safe prop option for a single bet. Baczynski makes the parlay.

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This Saturday night, a mixed martial arts legend will look to further cement his legacy while a rising prospect and undefeated fighter will try not to let Georges down and become the next 185lbs sensation. Somebody’s 0 in the Octagon has to go when Champion Anderson Silva defends his middleweight title against Chris Weidman at UFC 162.

Come along as we head to Las Vegas and breakdown some of the undercard as well as all of the main card bouts for Zuffa’s latest 2013 PPV offering. All betting lines courtesy of BestFightOdds, as usual.

Undercard bouts:

Seth Baczynski (-280) vs Brian Melancon (+240)

Melancon makes his UFC debut as the +250 underdog after a 1-1 record in Strikeforce against a -300 Seth Baczynski. “The Polish Pistola,” who is built like a middleweight, will enjoy a 7 inch height advantage and should be able to keep the fight standing to compliment his striking advantage in this bout. Melancon has yet to be finished and fight goes the distance at -195 is a fairly safe prop option for a single bet. Baczynski makes the parlay.

Dave Herman (+200) vs Gabriel Gonzaga (-240)

Coming in at the same price as he did against Big Nog, Dave Herman is looking to keep his spot on the UFC roster and is worth some consideration here. Since his return, Gabriel Gonzaga’s biggest win has come against Ben Rothwell in Brazil, but in his last outing Gonzaga was quickly dispatched by Travis Browne. If Herman can keep this fight standing and exploit Napao when he shoots in (like Browne did) we may have the makings for an upset. Herman at +200 for the upset win, which may later be overturned for you know what.

Main Card PPV:

Tim Boestch (+105) vs Mark Munoz (-125)

Both fighters are looking to bounce back from respective tough losses in their last outings. Both fighters also seem to posses similar skill sets with strong wrestling and powerful striking. Picking a victor here is an exercise in futility, but -160 that the judges need to decide this one is never a bad idea when two wrestlers are trying to implement their game plan in a 3 round fight. Prop fight goes to decision -160.

Cub Swanson (-235) vs Denis Siver (+195)

Siver is coming off his most dominating performance to date (over Nam Phan) which improved his record at featherweight to a perfect 2-0. Swanson, on the other hand, has quietly knocked out three of his last four opponents and will surely be thinking title shot…or not….if he finds a way to derail Siver in this fight. As the +180 underdog, Siver is worth the risk more than laying -225 for Swanson, but the likelihood that this fight starts round 3 at -180 is a happy medium with these two top featherweights. Prop for FOTN should pay around 4 or 5 to 1 seeing how both fighters have been involved in FOTN contests multiple times. Prop -180 fight starts round 3.

Tim Kennedy (-150) vs Roger Gracie (+130)

Roger Gracie will come in as a slight +120 underdog against fellow UFC newbie and former Strikeforce middleweight contender Tim Kennedy.  I may be wearing blinders here, but if Tim Kennedy could go 5 rounds with Jacare and not get submitted, the likelihood that he can stay out of trouble against an equally dangerous yet far less experienced MMA fighter in Roger Gracie seems very likely. Couple this with the fact that Kennedy’s most recent losses have come in title fights and the allure of a -150 to win becomes hard to ignore. Kennedy keeps the fight standing and outworks Gracie for the win, maybe even finishing Roger if his striking has not improved since the fight with King Mo. Kennedy -150 makes the parlay.

Frankie Edgar (-600) vs Charles Oliveira (+450)

Hovering above -500, the question over whether or not Frankie Edgar can win this fight is not nearly as compelling as the pick’em odds that this fight ends by decision (or not). Franky could catch Oliveira like Swanson did or he could control the fight and use his wrestling to grind out a decision win like he has done many a time at 155. This is Frankie’s comeback fight of sorts, a fight that is his to lose and even at -500, when combined with a few other heavy favorites, get’s you close to even money. Frankie makes the parlay.

Anderson Silva (-220) vs Chris Weidman (+200)

There is only one reason that Chris Weidman is being touted as the man to dethrone Anderson Silva and that is Chael Sonnen. Those who believe Weidman can win subscribe to the notion that Chris will be able to emulate the 5 out of 7 rounds that Chael was able to win against the Spider, but this time not fall short in the process. Where Chael failed due to his lack of submission defence in his first title shot, Weidman is given such a good chance by many because of his BJJ credentials and performance against the likes of Demian Maia in the past, where he was able to use his wrestling while simultaneously controlling one of the best grapplers in the UFC at any weight class to win. Weidman has proved he can defend submissions as well as create opportunities from top control to end fights. There are considerable variables in this fight, but the most important if you are thinking of picking Weidman will be, exactly how long will Herb Dean allow Weidman to stay inside Silva’s guard when the fight inevitably goes to the ground? Dean is considered one of the best in the business, but it is the lack of clarity as to when a fight should be stood up that may cause this fight to be next to impossible to predict.

Silva has the decided advantage in the striking department, but if he is forced to fight off his back for long periods during the fight, the judges will definitely give Weidman the win. If Herb Dean resets the fighters often, however, the likelihood Silva is able to catch Weidman increases to the point where -240 feels like a gift. Weidman +605 to win by decision as a prop bet is even more plausible as Chael Sonnen was less than 2 minutes away from accomplishing this not that long ago. In the middle, +105 that fight starts the 3rd round is probably the safest place to be, but again Silva needs one mistake and about 5 seconds to finish a fight so it is still going out on a limb. Gun to the head, Silva does what he always does and we all pick our jaws up off the floor shortly after midnight, wake up Sunday morning and try to find the GIF of the finish. Prop that fight starts round 3 +105, and +605 Weidman by decision if you believe Chris can get it done on Saturday.

Parlay 1
-Pierce+Barboza+Edgar

Parlay 2
-Baczynski+Kennedy

Parlay 3
-Herman+Pierce

Props
-Swanson vs Siver starts round 3
-Boestch vs Munoz fight goes the distance
-FOTN Swanson vs Siver

Please share your thoughts on who you like CP nation.

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!