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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 152 Edition

(Oh, jeez. Has Michael seen this poster yet? He is gonna be piiiisssed.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

You know that saying “one man’s trash is another man’s treasure”? Well, such is the case with UFC 151’s trash (which coincidentally resembles the remnants of a totaled Bentley) and UFC 152’s treasure. And those of us who were smart enough to recognize a curse when we saw one and purchase our tickets accordingly will reap the rewards of the 151 fallout by being treated to two title fights on the very same card. Suck it, over-saturation!

This Saturday night, the GAE will attempt to go where no other MMA blog/website/”professional MMA gambler”(my favorite) has gone before, a perfect 4-0 generating plus money dating back to UFC 148. So follow us after the jump as we try to navigate through the good, the bad, and the ugly betting lines of UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort (courtesy of BestFightOdds).

Charlie Brenneman (-225) vs. Kyle Noke (+185)

I feel that the Spaniard will be able to get this fight to the mat and establish himself as the dominant fighter. Hovering around -225, the line is appealing when you examine how Kyle Noke has lost his last two UFC bouts coupled with how Charlie has found victory throughout his UFC career (Ed note: Except here). This fight falls into the good category for betting lines and Brenneman will find his way into my parlay as the well priced favorite here.

(Oh, jeez. Has Michael seen this poster yet? He is gonna be piiiisssed.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Charlie Brenneman (-225) vs. Kyle Noke (+185)

Walel Watson (-200) vs. Mitch Gagnon (+170)

Hometown underdog Mitch Gagnon will be looking for his first UFC win against another good favorite here in Walel Watson. Watson lost his first ever professional MMA fight via submission, but since then has avoided being submitted and has been in the octagon with fighters of a much higher pedigree than Gagnon. While Mitch has a large list of submissions victories and an impressive UFC debut under his belt, Watson seems like the only fighter of the two that has the ability to win this fight both on the feet and on the ground, and is another solid parlay pick as well.

Seth Baczynski (-150) vs Simeon Thoresen (+130)

This fight is sitting around pick’em status with Thoresen as the slight underdog. Seth has a few submission losses on his record, but has a well-rounded ground game that may be the deciding factor considering Thoresen’s striking game is simply not at the level of the “Polish Pistola.” Add in the fact that Thoresen is fighting for the first time in North America and going after the underdog line could prove to be a bad decision. I am much more comfortable looking at the prop that this fight does not go the distance. Thoresen’s last five fights have not seen the judges cards while Baczynski has only been to a decision once in his last five fights.

Jimmy Hettes (-440) vs Marcus Brimage (+350)

File this one under the ugly. Jimmy Hettes is the right favorite, but the price is simply too high and not worth the risk to your parlay. Brimage is talented and beat a well respected Maximo Blanco his last time out, but the minute Brimage finds himself locked up with Hettes, he will most likely be on his back defending submission attempt after submission attempt. Marcus will not be easy to put away, but I do believe Hettes will win here, potentially submitting Brimage in the process.

Sean Pierson (+145) vs Lance Benoist (-165)

A fun fact here is that both fighters have been on the winning side of the cards in exciting fights against Matthew Riddle. Pierson is a veteran of the Canadian martial arts scene and will be looking to come back strong after losing via KO to Jake Ellenberger the last time he fought in Toronto. Since then, however, Pierson has gone 1-1, splitting a pair of UD’s to Dong Hyun Kim and Jake Hecht. Benoist is the younger fighter and the favorite, but Pierson is worth a look as the underdog and may find himself on the end of a favorable (think Nick Ring/Court McGee) decision win here. It’s Pierson or nothing for me. Not a parlay fight, but a look that the fight goes the distance may be the safest bet.

Evan Dunham (-185) vs TJ Grant (+160)

Not to sound like “that guy,” but Evan Dunham has only really ever lost to Melvin Guillard; his decision loss to Sean Sherk is perhaps the worst decision I have seen in UFC history. Dunham seems to have the advantage in the stand up game here and I think he uses his skills to keep this fight standing while out striking Grant en route to a decision victory. Grant will not be a walk in the park; he is well rounded and has the ability to push this fight to the cards like he has done with Hendricks, Kim, and Almeida in past losing efforts. The line sitting at around -200 for Dunham, however, is too alluring to pass up. Dunham for the win and fight goes the distance are both solid picks.

Igor Pokrajac (-175) vs Vinny Magalhaes (+155)

I will take the bad favorite here and suggest Igor keeps this fight standing, possibly finishing Vinny at some point during the contest. Everyone and their cat knows that if this fight goes to the ground Igor is in big trouble, and while Vinny has the ability to submit anyone, he also seems to be at a marked disadvantage when fighting stand up (Ed note: Vinny’s striking did look much improved in his last fight. Just sayin’.). The -200 territory that Igor is able to stop the takedown is bad, mainly because he seems to welcome the ground game in his fights which could be his undoing here. Lay your money on the prop that the fight does not go the distance because this one ends in either KO or submission before the end of the third.

Cub Swanson (+200)vs Charles Oliveira (-240)

Cub is tough fighter to figure out and while he has managed to put together two straight wins, there seems to be a ceiling that he cannot break through. It is easy to pick Oliveira here based on the assumption that he will finish Swanson via submission (like Lamas did), but with so few underdogs worthy of picking, I prefer to stay away from this favorite hovering around -250. The prop that the fight does not go the distance feels right as I do not believe that Oliveira and Swanson will waste any time trying to finish each other (Greg Jackson game plan aside).

Matt Hamill (-365) vs Roger Hollett (+305)

On one side, Hamill is coming off a year long retirement from MMA (so a vacation, I guess?), while on the other side, you have a relatively unknown fighter coming in on short notice to fight the man he was supposed to have fought before pulling out due to injury. Anyone else confused? The line on Hamill is just fugly, too many unanswered questions to go into -350 territory and not a clear cut case for the underdog to win other than home field advantage/judges gift. I do like the prospect that this fight goes the distance and instead of risking heartbreak betting on Hamill, I would rather pass and go with the fact that Hamill will be able to wrestle his way to a decision victory.

Michael Bisping (-185) vs Brian Stann (+160)

The price is very fair for Bisping if you look at the popular opinion that Bisping is simply better than Stann in every aspect of the sport. Personally, I think Stann is the better striker, not technically, but simply more dangerous. I do not think Wandy was a better technical striker than Bisping, but he won the fight by being more aggressive that night and delivering more damage than Bisping could. I think the book is out on Stann’s grappling deficiency and I would not be surprised at all to see Bisping go for the takedown and look for a submission. The glaring advantage Bisping has on the ground together with Bisping’s ability to take down excellent grapplers (Chael) leads me toward Bisping here.

Joesph Benavidez (-275) vs Demetrious Johnson (+235)

I am not exactly sure why Benavidez is such a heavy favorite, sitting close to -300 even, when both fighters have seen their only losses come at the hands of Bantamweight kingpin Dominick Cruz. Joe may have the advantage in the stand up, but this title fight feels more like a pick’em to me. Both fighters have defeated top level competition, both seem to have solid stand up to compliment their ground game, and their cardio levels are out of this world. I am much more comfortable suggesting along with most that this fight goes the distance and depending on what the lines are, I would look at playing over rounds up to fight goes the distance. Gun to the head I will go with Benavidez to bring home Team Alpha Male’s first UFC title.

Jon Jones (-800) vs Vitor Belfort (+600)

A -800 line that Jones wins this fight should have most people staying away from this one altogether. A puncher’s chance is what Vitor has and a Pterodactyl wing for an arm is what Jones has. For five to one on your money, do you think Vitor can get through Jones’ extended left arm, open hand, backing away style of defense to find the money with his fists? Sadly, I think not. Simple as that. The prop that this fight does not go the distance is also just as ugly sitting around -500. With minimums on props, risking $100 will bring you $20 is as close to a guaranteed investment as you can get in MMA. I think if there is a prop on under 1 ½ rounds available at -300 territory, jumping on it would be wise; Vitor’s either going to sink or swim quickly in this fight.

Parlay 1
Brenneman-Dunham-Bisping

Parlay 2
Brenneman-Watson-Pokrajac

Props
-Baczynski/Thoresen fight does not go the distance
-Dunham/Grant fight goes the distance
-Pokrajac/Magalhaes fight does not go the distance
-Swanson/Oliveira fight does not go the distance

Follow the usual CP breakdown of betting higher on the parlays and lower on the props and feel free to heckle when/if these parlay’s fall apart. But most importantly: May the winners be yours.

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 150 Edition

(What part of Arizona are you from, Ben? Right near the beach…BOI!)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Fresh off a stellar UFC on FOX last week, the UFC will be looking to build on some much needed momentum heading into this weekend’s UFC 150 card, where Ben Henderson will look to defend his lightweight strap against the man he took it from, Frankie Edgar. Will Colorado’s ridiculously high altitude continue to plague fighter’s cardio as it did at UFC 135 and Fight Night: Florian vs. Lauzon? Possibly, but it’s going to take more than a shortness of breath to stop the Gambling Enabler from paying out, as we’ve landed in the money on our past two events. So join us for a fight-by-fight dissection of UFC 150 and an inside look at how to come away with a significantly fatter wallet. All odds, per usual, are courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Ken Stone (+100) vs Eric Perez (-120)

Perez is a submissions specialist as is 1-0 in the UFC with a submission via armbar. Ken “Keith” Stone has more UFC experience and has lost two tough bouts to Eddie Wineland and Scott Jorgensen but has since won two straight fights. He has yet to be submitted in his MMA career, so I believe Stone will have enough to fend off Perez’s submissions game and win this fight on the cards.

(What part of Arizona are you from, Ben? Right near the beach…BOI!)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Ken Stone (+100) vs Eric Perez (-120)

Chico Camus (+160) vs. Dustin Pague (-185)

Chico is making his Octagon debut here and has the ability to grind out Pague in this fight. On the other hand, Pague is the type of fighter to fight his opponent’s fight, which this leads me to believe he may be upset by Camus. Pague is hovering around -200 favorite and I would not be willing to lay that price. I will look for the prop that this fight goes the distance.

Jared Hamman (-105) vs. Michael Kuiper (-115)

Michael Kuiper will be looking for his first win in his second attempt inside the octagon, but he may come out on the short end if Hamman is able to use his size advantage to control this fight. Hovering around pick’em odds, I would place my money on Hamman here. Hamman is only 30 and is a tested veteran in the UFC, I would go again with the prop this fight goes the distance as Kuiper will surely not give away another loss easily.

Eiji Mitsuoka (+320) vs. Nik Lentz (-390)

Nik Lentz NCAA div 1 wrestling should get the job done here. The prop that this fight goes the distance should also be explored. “The Carny “is coming off back to back losing efforts, but actually managed to put in a thrilling effort in his most recent FOTN-earning loss against Evan Dunham at UFC on FOX 2. That said, I believe Mitsuoka will not have an answer for Nik’s ground game and will be frustrated up until the end of this fight with Lentz’s wet blanket routine. Not a great value at 30 cents on the dollar, but Lentz will make it into my parlay.

Dennis Bermudez (-290) vs. Tommy Hayden (+245)

Tommy Hayden had a tough go in his UFC debut and I think history will repeat itself again as Bermudez has simply fought on another level of competition than that of Hayden. Bermudez will most likely be looking to finish this fight and the line is under -300 which makes parlaying Dennis rather alluring. I do not see this fight going to the cards; a prop the fight does not go the distance may also be a profitable option.

Buddy Roberts (+480) vs. Yushin Okami (-570)

Last time Okami was a -600 favorite, things did not go so well for him. Granted, this time will surely be different, with Okami simply out powering the late replacement Roberts and coming out as the winner, but do you want to lay -600 on Okami? I don’t, because there’s nothing worse than having a parlay crushed by a -600 fighter losing (see Jay Glazer’s reaction to Tito Ortiz beating Ryan Bader from the dana vlogs).

Max Holloway (-110)vs. Justin Lawrence (+100)

Both fighter’s are coming off very impressive winning performances at the TUF 15 Finale; Holloway thoroughly dominated Pat Schilling and Lawrence broke out the highlight reel head kick KO on John Cofer for good measure. Pick’em odds on this fight are for good reason and I think this fight will be settled inside the distance. Holloway’s stand up is something special, even in a losing effort against Poirier he forced Dustin to take the fight to the ground because “The Diamond” did not like what he was seeing from Max on his feet. I think that the longer this fight goes, the better the chances are that Holloway will win. Not a parlay must, but good value on Holloway here.

Donald Cerrone (-295) vs Melvin Guillard (+265)

I like Guillard as the underdog in this fight. Having trained at Jackson’s with Cerrone leads me to believe that Melvin has the upper hand going into this fight, considering he knows what Cerrone has been up to while training with a camp that Cerrone know’s very little about in the meantime. Now 1-0 with the Blackzilian’s, Guillard showed us that he has finally learned some submission defense in his UFC 148 win over Fabricio Camoes. The question is: What else has Melvin learned that may surprise Cerrone in this fight? I am not counting Cerrone out completely, as this could easily look like Cerrone vs. Stephens with the longer fighter simply getting off first and winning the fight on the outside, but the plus money on Guillard is tempting and I will save some space for a long shot parlay with “The Young Assassin.” This fight may go the distance as well, not so much the high altitude effecting the fighters (as they are both used to training at high altitude), but simply the fact that they are so familiar with each other’s style that we may see a 15 minute chess match.

Jake Shields (-190) vs. Ed Herman (+175)

I want to say Shields and move on here, but Herman simply seems to be the perfect type of fighter to give Jake a ton of problems. Herman is a strong grappler and Jake is returning to MW for the first time here, so couple that with the fact that Herman may be able to deliver his own Hendo like right hand in this fight and we have all the makings for an upset. If Shields is able to get this fight to the ground, will he be able to keep Herman on his back or submit him? It all depends on how strong Jake is now and this is where I am unsure and unwilling to lay -200 on Jake. The fight should go the distance and this is where I will place my money, picking Shields these days is too risky.

Ben Henderson (-190) vs. Frankie Edgar (+175)

I like the bigger, stronger Bendo in this fight. Frankie may use all the footwork he wants and may stick Henderson with the jad for five rounds, but at the end of the day, Ben is simply going to remind us all why Edgar needs to drop down to 145 and start fighting guys his own size. I take nothing away from Frankie and I think he will be a top lightweight if he stays at 155, but Benson is the perfect mix between size and speed for Frankie, where prior opponents like Maynard had the power but lacked the speed to catch Frankie. As this fight goes into the later rounds, Benson should take control and get the win.

Parlay 1
Lentz-Bermudez-Henderson

Parlay 2
Lentz-Hamman-Stone-Henderson

*Parlay 3 (the degen special)
Holloway-Guillard-Henderson-Hamman-Bermudez

Props
-Lentz/Mitsuoka goes the distance
-Herman/Shields goes the distance
-Henderson/Edgar goes the distance
-Bermudez/Hayden does not go the distance

Bet what you feel comfortable with, higher on the parlays and lower on the props.

As an example, if you place $20 on parlay 1 and 2, with $5 on each prop you should be safe, as this was profitable on the past two GAE’s which is where you want to be.

Again, feel free to share hostility when/if these picks fall apart.

May the winners be yours!

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 149 Edition

(We’re going ((win)) streaking!!)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Grab your cowboy hats and pack up your saddles my fellow CP readers, because this weekend we are headed to the home of the world famous Calgary Stampede, Calgary, Alberta, Canada for UFC 149 Barao vs Faber! From a wagering standpoint, this card is pretty much a prime example of why bookies offer MMA betting lines, as this card is chock full of close fights and odds that will surely entice the gambling public as well as crush the majority of parlays, all the while raking in money for the house.

Luckily for you (or not), we do not have to go on the cuff for this card, as those who followed UFC 148’s GAE were rewarded with a 4 team parlay that paid out 7 to 1 at the window. All betting odds are courtesy of BestFightOdds.com, so join me as I try to offer some insight on how to go after plus units on Saturday’s upcoming card.

Bryan Caraway (-190) vs. Mitch Gagnon (+175)

Both fighters have strong submission skills, but I believe Caraway is the favorite because the majority of the public believe “Kid Lighting” is the better submission fighter out of the two. At around -200, Caraway should have what it takes to out-grapple his Canadian counterpart and find a way to win this fight. This may be stretching my psychic abilities to the max, but upon victory, I expect Caraway to announce that he is undergoing a sex change, signing with Strikeforce, and challenging Ronda Rousey to a “loser leaves town” match at 135 lbs. Any takers?

(We’re going ((win)) streaking!!)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Bryan Caraway (-190) vs. Mitch Gagnon (+175)

Ryan Jimmo (-165) vs. Anthony Perosh (+155)

It has been a long time coming for CP’s own Ryan Jimmo, who will be riding a 16-fight win streak and fighting in his own backyard against the always tough (not to mention streaking) Australian vet Anthony Perosh. This fight boils down to whether or not Jimmo can find himself on top of Perosh for sustained periods of the fight en route to scoring a stoppage or decision win (likely the latter). I can’t pick a winner here, but I will go with the prop that the fight goes over 2.5 rounds or fight goes the distance. Jimmo will not be easily submitted and Perosh will not be easily finished; those are the only things I am certain of in this fight.

Rolande Delorme (+107) vs. Francisco Rivera (-117)

TUF 14 alum Roland Delorme has looked better with each appearance in the octagon, most recently “stunning” than submitting slight favorite and fellow Canuck Nick Denis at UFC on FOX 3. That said, I still think Francisco is the better all around fighter and is only a slight favorite because of where this event is taking place. I see Delorme possibly being able to find himself on the ground in favorable positions with Rivera, but Rivera’s no slouch, and should be able to control the fight on the feet and fend off most of what Delorme has to offer on the ground. I would just enjoy this fight and take some notes for future reference.

Court McGee (+100) vs. Nick Ring (-110)

I’ll put it simply: If this goes the distance, McGee is going down. Nick was able to best McGee in their bout back on TUF 11, and it’s not like Ring hasn’t been gifted decisions in the past (Riki Fukuda). Considering that the heroic tale of Nick Ring thwarting a mugging has captivated the local community, I would not be surprised to see him pull out another close decision in his fight with McGee, thanks in no small part to the seedy underbelly of both Canada and MMA judging in general. That’s right, the fix is in and I’m calling it. I think Court has hit a plateau of sorts, and unless he presses forward and tries to finish this fight, he may become a victim of that round bacon-eating, Molson-drinking excuse for a crowd (I kid, I kid). Again, a prop bet that this fight is decided by the judges will be where I look at laying my money.

Matt Riddle (-150) vs. Chris Clements (+140)

Matt Riddle has consistently shown that he is willing to fight for the fans (look no further than his most recent win over Henry Martinez) and I believe that, while he could lay-n-pray his way to victory here, he may just go out and stand toe-to-toe with Clements. Unless Riddle has made a marked improvement in his striking game, I am going to lean on the Canuck as the underdog to find a way to win this fight by outgunning Riddle.

Brian Ebersole (-360) vs. James Head (+325)

File this one under “bad odds.” Much like with the Mendes/Mckenzie fight at UFC 148, the best opportunity to make some money here is by finding a prop on Ebersole winning inside the distance. I do not see this fight going the distance, so this is where anything near -400 territory is ignored in favor of even money on the prop side of the book.

Cheick Kongo (+115) vs. Shawn Jordan (-125)

All signs point towards Jordan and the price is ultra alluring. This line has recently tipped in favor of Jordan, but like with Riki Fukuda at UFC 148, line movement is not gospel and often can be misleading. In this instance, Jordan is the favorite and seems to have all the tools to stop Kongo with his striking if he keeps it on the feet and avoids Cheick’s unconventional style of GnP (shorts grabbing, testicle shattering, etc). I really want to say Jordan takes this by TKO, but I can’t ignore Cheick’s ability to pull wins/draws/decisions out of his ass when he is counted out by the public. If there is plus money on the prop that this fight goes the distance, I will be looking to put my money there, but picking a winner could be a parlay crusher.

Hector Lombard (-375) vs. Tim Boetsch (+335)

While I want to suggest Tim Boetsch will find a way to take this fight down on the cards, or take advantage of a gassed Lombard as the fight goes on, I keep picturing Boetsch moving forward and exchanging with Hector en route to suddenly finding himself looking up at the lights. It is no news that Hector hits harder than anyone Boetsch has faced before and I think Hector will be able to find Boetsch’s off switch before the end of the third round. Boetsch does not throw the straightest of punches and his constantly pressing style plays right into Hector’s powerhouse hands.

That being said, at Boetsch’s current rate, even a small bet could pay off if Lombard decided to come down with a case of the octagon jitters. “The Barbarian” doesn’t have nearly as much to prove as Lombard, who has likely been under a tremendous amount of pressure and stress to prove that he is more than a glorified can crusher, so a small bet on Boetsch wouldn’t be a terrible idea, just an incredibly risky one. In either case, just keep it the hell away from your parlay.

Renan Barao (-185) vs. Urijah Faber (+170)

I have heard that Barao looks depleted and so on, but I contribute this to his travel to the great white north more than anything. I think come fight night, Barao makes Faber his 30th straight victim for more reasons than I have time to list. Simply put, this feels like Aldo/Faber 2, and like his training partner from Nova Uniao, Barao will find Faber’s lead leg with ease while picking “The California Kid” apart using his reach and those devastating knee’s. The -200 price tag is another reason that Barao is a parlay must here. Currently 0-4 in his last 4 title fights, Faber is going to show us what he does best as of late when gold is on the line, push the fight to the limit but come up short in the end.

Parlay 1
Caraway-Clements-Barao

Parlay 2(Bellator bonus)
Zaromskis-Wiuff-Barao

Props
-Jimmo/Perosh goes the distance
-Ring/McGee goes the distance
-Ebersole/Head does not go the distance
-Ebersole wins inside the distance

Bet what you feel comfortable with and may the winners be yours!

As always, please share your thoughts on who you think will win this Saturday night in the comments section.

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 148 Edition

(This time around, the UFC’s marketing department is looking to drive home the notion that sex sells once and for all.)

By Dan “Get off Me” George

In the immortal words of Bruce Buffer, “It’s Time!”

On the eve of perhaps the most anticipated UFC rematch in history, I hope to bring my fellow CP readers some insight on how to save your kneecaps from the bookies and perhaps even make a buck or two by trying to follow my logic with regards to potential winners and losers for UFC 148.

For the sake of brevity, I’d like to focus on the dogs. The real money is made betting on the underdogs, and besides, there is nothing more exciting than watching a guy like Alan Belcher twist and turn his way out of certain demise en route to cashing out at three times the amount you originally placed on him (Ed note: Way to rub it in, Dan).

All of our betting odds for this week’s enabler come courtesy of BestFightOdds, so let’s get it on!

Undercard:

Shane Roller (-195) vs. John Alessio (+180)

I like Roller here, the price is fair and I do not see Alessio being able to do much but play defense in this fight. Look for Roller to pull out a decision while Alessio finds himself on the bottom or defending takedowns for the majority of the contest, not unlike his most recent decision loss to Mark Bocek at UFC 145. Simple.

Constantinos Philippou (-175) vs. Riki Fukuda (+165)

This line has moved in favor of Fukuda slightly over the past 24hrs, showing that the public likes Fukuda more and more as the small underdog. I like Philippou if for nothing more than his performance against Court McGee, a fighter similar to Fukuda who likes to move forward and press the action. Philippou has ever-improving takedown defense and better striking than Fukuda, specifically with his hands, and I like him to stop Fukuda’s takedowns and make him pay with his fists.

(This time around, the UFC’s marketing department is looking to drive home the notion that sex sells once and for all.)

By Dan “Get off Me” George

In the immortal words of Bruce Buffer, “It’s Time!”

All of our betting odds for this week’s enabler come courtesy of BestFightOdds, so let’s get it on!

Undercard:

Shane Roller (-195) vs. John Alessio (+180)

Constantinos Philippou (-175) vs. Riki Fukuda (+165)

Melvin Guillard (-300) vs. Fabricio Camoes (+275)

Not with a ten foot pole, thank you very much. There is no way in hell would I touch Guillard at 30 cents on my dollar, and Camoes (or anyone, really) definitely has the ability to sub Melvin, especially given his propensity to throw as many flying knees as humanely possible against the grapplers he faces. If anything, I would look at the prop on the fight not going the distance, because I cannot see this fight being decided by the judges.

Gleison Tibau (-210) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (+190)

I like “The Eagle” for this one. He’s undefeated, relentless with his forward pressure and wrestling, and is not afraid to swing for the fences in the meantime. Tibau is in -200 territory and often relies on his ground game to get him to a decision win. I think the Khabib uses his Judo, Sambo, and size advantage to keep Tibau against the fence, maybe finishing Tibau later in the fight or winning on the score cards.

Mike Easton (-120) vs. Ivan Menjivar (+110)

My heart wants Menjivar, but Easton has this propensity to win closely contested fights on the cards. It is basically a pick’em, and gun to my head, I am leaning towards Easton. Ivan has always had trouble with wrestlers throughout his career, and may simply be outgunned when forced to deal with the ridiculous speed and power of Easton.

Main Card:

Chad Mendes (-600) vs. Cody Mckenzie (+500)

Is there a prop for a fight ending via signature guillotine submission? How this fight even came to fruition is beyond me, but I still don’t like -500 and up territory even in a parlay. How many people got burned by Boetsch or Varner recently by putting -500 and up fighters in parlays? I think Mendes wins, but again, the prop Mendes wins by TKO, Sub or DQ is the way to go to make something off this fight.

Patrick Cote (-215) vs. Cung Le (+195)

I have a hard time picking 40 year-olds to win in the UFC not named Randy Couture. Nothing against Cung, but he is a small middleweight and Cote has the skill set to not be bullied by Le like he was against Tom Lawlor and the chin to withstand most of Le’s offense. Cote also has underrated striking, but I believe this fight will be more of Cote closing the distance on Le and trying to get the fight on the ground, where he can safely earn a decision win to ensure he sticks around for at least another fight.

Dong Hyun Kim (-150) vs. Demian Maia (+140)

Kim is built like a 185er, so Maia should not feel too out of place dropping to 170 here. Kim also fights like many of Maia’s past opponents, which would lead me to believe that Kim will spend the majority of this fight inside Maia’s guard. This fight is similar to Sass/Volkmann, where I thought Volkmann would end up winning a 30-27 snoozer across the board. Little did I know that Sass had other plans. In the spirit of great submissions, I like Maia to catch Kim, who despite appearances, is not as strong as the Munoz’s, Weidman’s, Herman’s, and Sonnen’s that Maia has faced before. Maia may be strong enough to control Kim from the bottom and finish the “Stun Gun” as a small underdog.

Forrest Griffin (-300) vs. Tito Ortiz (+270)

Ortiz at +250 territory is quite compelling. Forrest is a new father and something tells me this fight means a lot to him, unlike what we saw in his rematch with Shogun Rua, in which Forrest looked like he was running late for his return flight home. This will be Ortiz’s first and last fight as a UFC Hall of Famer, and he’s been talking like he’s ready to fight to the death, so look for him to try and find Griffin’s off button in the early going. As the two settle in, however, I expect Forrest to find his range and pick Ortiz apart like he did in the their second meeting. The odds should be closer by fight time, though not something to put in a parlay for my liking.

Anderson Silva (-270) vs. Chael Sonnen (+248)

And here we are at last. I like Silva to win via keeping the fight standing and using the clinch effectively like he did against Yushin Okami when the distance is closed. I do not see Silva using many kicks at all, perhaps only when Chael is moving backwards (which Chael does not often do), and instead opting to box with Sonnen while using his footwork and hips (think matador vs bull) to keep Sonnen from getting this fight to the ground. We all know Sonnen’s gameplan by this point; his only chance here is if he can get this fight to the ground. Therefore, I will be looking at the prop Sonnen wins by decision, which should be near the +350 range, and is definitely hedge worthy, as the only way I see Sonnen winning is via 5rd decision.

Parlay 1:
Roller-Philippou-Nurmagomedov-Silva

Or if you’re feeling really ballsy…

Parlay 2:
Roller-Philippou-Nurmagomedov-Maia-Cote-Silva

Props:
Chael wins by decision
Mendes wins by (T)KO

Decide how much you would like to bet and may the winners be yours.

Also, feel free to give me shit when/if these fall apart.

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 146 Edition

Unfortunately, last Tuesday’s UFC on FUEL: Zombie vs. Poirier card all but completely derailed our recent run of luck with the Gambling Enabler (aside from the decision to purchase some Bud Light Platinums to celebrate another beautiful McKenzietine bet), but hopefully this weekend’s UFC 146 event, which features an all heavyweight main card for the first time in UFC history will help get things back on track. So without further adieu, may we present to you the tasty betting lines, brought to you courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our brilliant/equally insane advice below.

Main Card
Frank Mir (+425) vs. Junior dos Santos (-550)
Cain Velasquez (-400) vs. Antonio Silva (+325)
Roy Nelson (-225) vs. Dave Herman (+185)
Shane del Rosario (+135) vs. Stipe Miocic (-155)
Lavar Johnson (+105) vs. Stefan Struve (-125)

Preliminary Card (FX)
Diego Brandao (-265) vs. Darren Elkins (+205)
Edson Barboza (-550) vs. Jamie Varner (+425)
Jason Miller (-145) vs. C.B. Dollaway (+115)
Dan Hardy (-130) vs. Duane Ludwig (+100)

Preliminary Card (Facebook)
Paul Sass (+170) vs. Jacob Volkmann (-215)
Glover Teixeira (-240) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (+180)
Mike Brown (-160) vs. Daniel Pineda (+130)

Thoughts…

Preliminary Card (Facebook)
Paul Sass (+170) vs. Jacob Volkmann (-215)
Glover Teixeira (-240) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (+180)
Mike Brown (-160) vs. Daniel Pineda (+130)

Thoughts…

The Main Event: Good God, has the world completely forgotten that Frank Mir is a former heavyweight champion for Christ’s sake? When we first came across those odds, not only did we double take, we nearly went into full on SpongeBob Squarepants bubble-blowing mode. Look, we all know that JDS has been damn near untouchable since nuking Fabricio Werdum in his octagon debut. We also know that Frank Mir’s chin leaves something to be desired, but at those odds, you’d think this was the squash match of the century, and that’s already been booked in the featherweight division. Mir is a submission savant with a pretty stellar standup game, and considering the experience advantage he’ll be bringing with him come Saturday, it would be nothing short of foolish to place at least a small bet on him at those ridiculous odds. Keep Junior in your parlay, because he has the kind of cement-filled hands that could end Mir’s night really, really early, but a side bet on Mir is common sense here.

The Good Dogs: We hate to be rude, but judging by their last performances, we’d say that Dave Herman and Antonio Silva are f’ing screwed. Plain and simple. Velasquez is too fast and dynamic for “Bigfoot,” and regardless of how Nelson has looked as of late, he is simply on another level than Herman, so scratch those from your list of viable options. The Rosario/Miocic line is really too close to warrant a big bet, and is one of those guaranteed slugfests that is best enjoyed with a cold beer, some nachos, and zero investment in the fighters at hand. Given his insane power, as well as Struve’s tendency to stand for way too long with people he has no business standing with, Lavar “Big” Johnson looks like a decent bet at +105. Then again, Pat Barry almost pulled off a keylock on him. Then again, Pat Barry almost pulled off a keylock on him. That is no typo; we want to let that notion settle in. Once Struve gets this to the ground, it will be over quicker than you can even kick yourself for betting on “Big” in the first place.

Really, the best underdog pick on this card is Paul Sass. Terrible nickname aside, he’s managed to score a couple impressive victories since jumping into the deep waters of the UFC’s lightweight division, mainly, his most recent heel hook win over TUF 12 finalist Michael Johnson. Volkmann has proven to be a force at 155, scoring five straight since dropping from welterweight, but none of those victories have really convinced us that he can do anything other than out-grapple his opponent for three rounds. Sass is a finisher, and Volkmann is anything but. This fight comes down to where you stand on the BJJ vs. wrestling debate, but we expect to see Sass pull off a second or third round sub and claim his place amongst the upper echelon of the lightweight division.

The Easy Bet: Diego Brandao. Although he saw some ups and downs in his glass plaque-earning effort over Dennis Bermudez at the TUF 14 Finale, he should easily be able to handle Darren Elkins, whose 3-1 octagon record looks a bit different when you realize that one of those victories came as a result of Duane Ludwig’s flimsy ankles, and another came as a result of the incompetence of MMA judges in his fight with Michihiro Omigawa. We feel compelled to mention the Miller/Dolloway match considering what’s at stake, but you might as well just throw your paycheck in the fire before you bet on either of those gentlemen.

Official CagePotato Parlay: dos Santos + Velasquez + Nelson + Brandao

Suggested stake for a $50 parlay
$25 on the parlay
$10 on Mir
$10 on Sass
$5 on Kingsbury (because UFC jitters are a thing)

–J. Jones

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 145 Edition

(Don’t worry, we put more effort into this piece than the UFC marketing department did into that poster.)

Rumor has it that on Saturday night, two certain somebodies may or may not partake in a certain fight that you may or may not be able to place a certain wager on, which may or may not be dependent on whether you think or don’t think you know a certain outcome of the fight itself, capiche? In either case, we are going to offer some advice that may or may not help you arrive at that determination. Check out what could hypothetically be the betting lines for UFC 145, courtesy of BestFightOdds, below, and follow us after the jump for what may or may not be our advice on where to place a certain bet that may or may not exist.

MAIN CARD
Jon Jones (-485) vs. Rashad Evans (+385)
Rory MacDonald (-600) vs. Che Mills (+450)
Ben Rothwell (+240) vs. Brendan Schaub (-280)
Mark Hominick (-600) vs. Eddie Yagin (+450)
Mark Bocek (-400) vs. John Alessio (+325)
Michael McDonald (even) vs. Miguel Torres (-120)

PRELIMINARY CARD
Travis Browne (-260) vs. Chad Griggs (+220)
Matt Brown (+250) vs. Stephen Thompson (-300)
John Makdessi (+175) vs. Anthony Njokuani (-210)
Mac Danzig (-210) vs. Efrain Escudero (+175)
Chris Clements (-200) vs. Keith Wisniewski (+170)
Maximo Blanco (-265) vs. Marcus Brimage (+225)

Thoughts…

(Don’t worry, we put more effort into this piece than the UFC marketing department did into that poster.)

Rumor has it that on Saturday night, two certain somebodies may or may not partake in a certain fight that you may or may not be able to place a certain wager on, which may or may not be dependent on whether you think or don’t think you know a certain outcome of the fight itself, capiche? In either case, we are going to offer some advice that may or may not help you arrive at that determination. Check out what could hypothetically be the betting lines for UFC 145, courtesy of BestFightOdds, below, and join us afterward for what may or may not be our advice on where to place a certain bet that may or may not exist.

Thoughts…

The Main Event: Listen, we all know that Jon Jones will likely beat Rashad Evans; he is younger, more athletic, and has absolutely crushed everyone in his path, including the man who nearly turned Evans into a member of the walking dead. But whenever a former champ who is arguably still in his prime is listed as that big of an underdog, especially one with as much power and experience as Evans, you’d be a fool not to place a bet on him. Save Jones for the parlay, and place a decent side wager on Evans; it’s as simple as that.

The Good Dogs: The Michael Mcdonald/Miguel Torres odds are really too close to waste your time on, and we hate to count Che Mills out, but given Rory MacDonald‘s run thus far in the UFC, we’d say he’s pretty close to mincemeat in this one. That brings us to Rothwell/Schaub. Here’s what we know:

1. Ben Rothwell CAN knock a motherfucker out, even if we haven’t see him do so in quite some time.
2. Brendan Schaub is very susceptible to the KO

Now, you might call us crazy to even consider betting on “Big Ben” given his run as of late, and you have every right to. If this fight goes past the first round, Schaub will more than likely take it, but if Rothwell presses the action early, you could be looking at an easy score. Let the public backlash begin.

The other dogs worth your consideration are Matt Brown, Efrain Escudero, and Chad Griggs. Brown’s got the experience edge (UFC-wise, at least) over Thompson, who’s only opponent in UFC competition was basically a sheep being led to the slaughter. Mac Danzig has been a mixed bag ever since winning the TUF 6 plaque, and if Escudero chooses to mix up his strikes with a few takedowns, he could very easily coast his way to a UD victory. Next to Evans, Escudero is your best bet as far as underdog picks go. As for Griggs…well, the dude throws some serious heat, and can take it just as well as he can dish it out. He’s facing a tough test in Browne, but if you’re feeling lucky, a small bet on him wouldn’t be too foolish.

Stay the Hell Away From: Maximo Blanco. It’s odd enough that the UFC signed him following a loss (who does he think he is, Phil Baroni?), and we’re not going to risk him ruining our parlay until he gets at least one UFC bout under his belt. Also, John Alessio. His line may look tempting at +325 considering his experience, but the dude has a track record of buckling under the bright lights. The fact that he’s stepping in as a late replacement against someone whose strengths play right into his weaknesses should be further proof to just steer clear of him.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Jones + Bocek + Clements + Njokuani

Suggested wager for a $50 wager
-$20 on the parlay
-$10 on Evans
-$10 on Escudero
-$5 on Rothwell
-$5 on Brown

-J. Jones