Tag: MMAFix

Strikeforce – Rockhold vs. Kennedy: Pre-Fight Analysis

Luke Rockhold vs. Tim Kennedy Headlining the Strikeforce card on Saturday night is a middleweight title fight between champion Luke Rockhold and challenger Tim Kennedy. Rockhold has earned eight straight victories after suffering his only.

Luke Rockhold vs. Tim Kennedy

Headlining the Strikeforce card on Saturday night is a middleweight title fight between champion Luke Rockhold and challenger Tim Kennedy. Rockhold has earned eight straight victories after suffering his only loss in his second career fight. His last two victories have been his most impressive coming against Ronaldo Souza and Keith Jardine. Kennedy has put together back to back victories over Melvin Manhoef and Robbie Lawler after losing a championship fight against Souza.

Rockhold comes in with momentum after dominating Jardine and finishing him via TKO in the first round. But his victory before that against Souza to win the belt was even more impressive. Souza is one of the better fighters in the middleweight division and Rockhold managed to keep the fight mostly on the feet and battered him from there. He has shown an increasingly diversified striking game combined with a defensive wrestling and scrambling ability that allow him to take advantage of his strengths in the standup. He will look to do just that against Kennedy who prefers to take fighters down and work for submission. Kennedy is a good striker but Rockhold should have the advantage and as long as he can keep the fight standing, he should be able to earn the victory. Kennedy will be tough to finish but if he does it, that would be another impressive statement. More likely is a unanimous decision after five rounds of high level striking.

Kennedy’s biggest asset to this point in his career has been his grappling. He has found the most success by taking his opponents down and working for submissions. He has also shown some excellent ground and pound. If he wants to use those skills, he has a tough task as Rockhold has shown excellent takedown defense and Kennedy isn’t a great wrestler. He will need to mix in his takedowns with his striking and time his shots as counters to Rockhold’s striking to have the best chance of success. He will also need to work hard to keep Rockhold down as he has shown an excellent ability to get back to his feet once on he hits the ground. If Kennedy can get Rockhold down and keep him there, he can win this fight. But that will be difficult to do and he will need to keep Rockhold guessing and off balance in order to do it.

Rockhold is the big favorite at -310 with Kennedy at +255. This fight sets up in Rockhold’s favor as he should be able to defends against Kennedy’s takedowns and keep the fight standing. If that happens, Rockhold should have the advantage and strike his way to a victory. But if Kennedy can somehow find a way to get the fight to the mat and control Rockhold , he could pull of the upset.

Nate Marquardt vs. Tyron Woodley

The first title fight of the night will feature former UFC contender Nate Marquardt and undefeated prospect Tyron Woodley competing for the vacant Strikeforce welterweight belt. Marquardt comes to Strikeforce after alternating wins and losses in his last five UFC appearances. He earned a decision victory over Dan Miller at UFC 128 in his last fight after losing to Yushin Okami in a title contender elimination fight. Woodley has been impressive in his undefeated Strikeforce run earning victories over Jordan Mein and Paul Daley in his last two fights bringing his record to ten wins and no losses.

Marquardt has long been one of the better fighters in the middleweight division but has been unable to climb to the top of division. Because of that, he has decided to not only drop to welterweight but has also made the jump from the UFC to Strikeforce where he can fight for a title immediately. Marquardt basically had no choice but to be a big fish in the small Strikeforce pond after the UFC released him. He has lost a bit of credibility in the past year with his testosterone replacement therapy saga but this fight is an opportunity to get his career back on the right track. He brings a well-rounded skill set to the cage with the ability to finish from any position. Against an excellent wrestler like Woodley, expect him to try to keep the fight standing. The key to this fight will be his defensive wrestling. If he can fend off Woodley’s takedowns, he should have the advantage in the striking game. But if he finds himself on his back, he’ll be in trouble. The other key will be how his body handles the weight cut. If this fight goes five rounds, his body will be tested. Any time a fighter makes a change in weight class the first fight is always a bit of a challenge and five rounds will only make the challenge even more difficult.

Woodley’s win streak to start his career is now at ten fights and he will look to make it eleven by earning the first title of his MMA career. He is not as well-rounded as his opponent and will rely almost entirely on his wrestling to earn the victory. He needs to be able to get Marquardt down and control him on the ground. At this point in his career, he doesn’t have the striking to compete on the feet. He has the power to land a haymaker but not the technique to consistently outstrike Marquardt. Because of that, he needs to focus on getting the fight to the ground and grinding his way to victory. The more he can force Marquardt to wrestle the better his chances of wearing him out and testing the weight cut become. His chances also improve as the fight goes longer for the same reasons. If Woodley wants to win, he has to make the fight slow and ugly. And luckily for him, that’s exactly his style.

Marquardt is the slight favorite in this fight at -130 with Woodley coming in at +110. That seems about right as Marquardt has a significant advantage in experience and Woodley has never faced anyone of his caliber before. If Marquardt’s defensive wrestling is good enough to keep the fight standing, he should be able to earn the victory. But if Woodley can be successful with his takedowns and maintain top position, he’ll grind his way to a decision.

Robbie Lawler vs. Lorenz Larkin

Strikeforce is showing a little love to the fans by giving us a guaranteed slugfest and more than likely a KO or TKO finish with a middleweight fight between Lorenz Larkin and Robbie Lawler. Both fighters prefer to stand and both have the power to finish. Larkin is the more technical fighter and uses a more well-rounded striking attack incorporating a variety of kicks into his game. Lawler prefers to box and mix in some powerful knees when the opportunity arises. However, Lawler may have the slight advantage in power and explosiveness.

The analysis for this fight is pretty straightforward. These guys are going to stand and bang and eventually one of them is probably going to fall. None of the major sites have a line on this fight but if they did, it would have to be close. Either fighter is capable of landing the strike that ends the fight at any moment. I could stretch this out longer to try to sound smarter but this fight is what is so enjoy it for as long as it lasts. I know I will.

Roger Gracie vs. Keith Jardine

To open a big night for Strikeforce that features two title fights, Roger Gracie will face Keith Jardine in the light heavyweight division. Gracie carries the banner for the first family of MMA into this fight against Jardine who carries the banner for ugly fighting styles. These two fighters are polar opposites in their approaches with Gracie coming from a storied Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background and employing a traditional style that led him to great success on the grappling circuit while Jardine seems to come into every fight looking to make it an ugly brawl to create openings for his powerful punches.

Gracie’s striking has improved in recent fights but he is still a grappler first. He will be looking to get the fight to the mat as quickly as possible and avoid engaging Jardine on the feet. The question will be whether or not he has the wrestling to succeed in taking down Jardine. If he can, the fight will likely be over quickly after that. Jardine will be looking to ugly up the fight as much as possible and use his unorthodox striking to keep Gracie off balance. While Gracie has shown a willingness to strike, he still doesn’t seem to respond well to getting hit and if Jardine can land one of his looping punches, he could get an opportunity to finish his opponent. But he needs to be careful because if he stuns Gracie and follows him to the ground to try for a finish, he could find himself in a submission.

The bookmakers have Gracie as a solid favorite at -260 with Jardine at +180. I’m not sure why Gracie is such a big favorite given that the fight will start on the feet and Jardine has a significant advantage in that area. I’m also not convinced that Gracie will be able to drag Jardine to the mat before eating a few shots. Both fighters have a clear path to victory here and the winner will be determined by who executes his gameplan more efficiently. If Gracie gets the fight to the ground, he should be able to wrap it up quickly. But if Jardine can keep the fight standing, he has the power to finish Gracie.

UFC on Fuel TV 4 – Post Fight Breakdown

Mark Munoz vs. Chris Weidman I don’t know if I’ve ever been more wrong on fight pick than I was on this one. Chris Weidman is absolutely the real deal and he destroyed Mark Munoz..

Mark Munoz vs. Chris Weidman

I don’t know if I’ve ever been more wrong on fight pick than I was on this one. Chris Weidman is absolutely the real deal and he destroyed Mark Munoz. I thought the wrestling would be even. Weidman took him down immediately and easily to start both rounds. I thought Munoz would have a striking advantage. He never landed a significant strike and Weidman scored one of the most impressive knockouts in UFC history. I was a little hesitant to jump on the hype train but I’m on board now.

Weidman dominated the first round completely after scoring the opening takedown. He controlled position and nearly submitted Munoz with a guillotine from the mount position twice. Every time Munoz tried to stand or reverse position, Weidman was ahead of him and brought him back under control. Munoz didn’t have a single offensive moment in the round and had to resort to giving up his back to get to his feet at the very end of the round. Weidman opened the second round the same as the first and continued the script. Munoz seemed to earn his first minor victory of the fight when he found a way to get the fight back to a standing position. Instead, Weidman countered Munoz’ first combination with a destructive short counter elbow that should have stopped the fight. For some reason, Josh Rosenthal allowed the fight to continue and Weidman proceeded to punch Munoz in and out of consciousness while Rosenthal took an inexplicably long time to intervene. Regardless, the finish was undeniably great and Weidman is officially the biggest threat to Anderson Silva in the middleweight division.

Weidman’s victory may have earned him the next title shot and one more similarly dominating performance would have to guarantee him that title shot. I don’t know if he has what it takes to end the champions’s streak of domination but his skill set is scarier than any other contender in the division. For Mark Munoz, this loss is a big blow and he will have to win a couple fights in a row if he wants to get back into the title picture. But the story coming out of this fight is obviously the arrival of Chris Weidman. The impressiveness of this victory cannot be overstated.

James Te Huna vs. Joey Beltran

In a surprise to everyone, the light heavyweight slugfest between James Te Huna and Joey Beltran went to a decision. Less surprising was Te Huna having his arm raised at the end. The first round went exactly according to script as the two big bangers came out swinging. Both landed some heavy shots but Te Huna consistently got the better of the exchanges and scored the bigger punches. He hurt Beltran badly in the final minute of round one and pounced for the finish. Beltran’s brick chin and the bell signaling the end of the round were the only thing that saved him from a TKO. Te Huna seemed to burn out his arms trying to finish Beltran and didn’t have the explosiveness in his punches to score the knockout later in the fight. He continued to dominate in the second round but seemed to tire significantly by the third round allowing Beltran back into the fight.

Te Huna continues to climb in the light heavyweight division but will need to further diversify his game with wrestling and grappling if he wants to succeed against more well-rounded fighters. This fight going three rounds may prove to be a blessing for him as he now knows what it feels like to go fifteen minutes in the UFC and should be motivated to improve his conditioning. For Beltran, this outcome doesn’t change his status. He is never going to be a top tier fighter but his relentlessness and superhuman chin guarantee an exciting fight every time he steps in the cage with another striker. When Joe Silva needs a slugfest to add some entertainment to a card, he knows who to call.


Aaron Simpson vs. Kenny Robertson

Aaron Simpson looked impressive in his debut at welterweight doing everything but finishing Kenny Robertson on his way to a unanimous decision. Simpson realized early in the first round that he had the wrestling advantage and used that to control his opponent throughout the fight. He didn’t threaten to finish the fight until the very end of the third round but completely controlled Robertson for all fifteen minutes. He repeatedly took his opponent down and maintained top position landing effective ground and pound along the way. His cardio looked solid and he didn’t seem to tire as the fight progressed. At thirty seven years old, it might be too late for him to make a serious run at 170 lbs but he should provide some interesting fights in the division. Robertson might be on his way back out of the UFC after his second consecutive loss. He was brought in as a late replacement for Jon Fitch and didn’t do anything to earn another opportunity.

Francis Carmont vs. Karlos Vemola

The third fight of the night marked the arrival of Francis Carmont as a factor in the middleweight division. Carmont has been competing in MMA since 2004 but is just now showing signs of fulfilling his potential. He has always been a huge middleweight and looked significantly larger than Vemola who is one of the bigger fighters at 185 lbs. He looked good in the first round taking advantage of Vemola’s guillotine attempts to gain top position. He locked on to an Americana and was close to finishing but Vemola managed to survive. He started the second round by landing a big front kick. After a scramble, Carmont brought Vemola to the mat in the crucifix position and transitioned quickly into a rear naked choke to earn the finish. Carmont is likely to face a significant step up in competition as he is already thirty years old. If he is ever going to make a serious run in the UFC, this is the moment in his career to make it happen. He has always had the requisite athleticism but now he seems to be putting together the kind of well-rounded game that could make him a legitimate contender. Vemola took a step in the opposite direction and will need to improve if he wants to be a threat in the UFC. He is explosive but showed some questionable decision making and didn’t seem to be executing any sort of gameplan. It takes more than athleticism to compete in the UFC and he needs to improve in his approach if he hopes to take advantage of his raw ability.

T.J. Dillashaw vs. Vaughan Lee

What looked to be a mismatch on paper proved also to be a mismatch in the octagon. Lee came out looking to finish the fight with every strike he threw but Dillashaw evaded easily and landed a few strikes of his own. He then landed a takedown off of a Vaughan kick and moved to top position. Lee gave his back to stand up and Dillashaw took advantage climbing on and sinking in both hooks. From there, he quickly slipped his arm under Lee’s neck and finished the fight with a rear naked choke. For Dillashaw, this was exactly the performance he needed and his stock is rising quickly at bantamweight. Training at Team Alpha Male ensures that he will continue to improve rapidly so look for him to become a factor at 135 lbs. A loss like this and a record of 12-8 likely puts Lee on the brink of leaving the UFC. His upset of Norifumi Yamamoto in his UFC debut might earn him one more chance in the octagon but I can’t see him lasting beyond that.

Anthony Njokuani vs. Rafael Dos Anjos

In the first fight of the night, Rafael Dos Anjos dominated Anthony Njokuani on his way to a unanimous decision. Dos Anjos dropped Njokuani with a left to establish control early in the first round and was never seriously threatened at any point in the fight. After the knockdown, he scored several takedowns in succession showing greatly improved wrestling. He matched that wrestling improvement with an improvement in striking proving to be at least the equal of Njokuani who is one of the best strikers in the division. After the first round, Njokuani told his corner that he had broken his right hand. Assessing the impact of an injury mid-fight is difficult but even with a full arsenal of weapons, Njokuani likely would not have been able to defeat Dos Anjos. The second and third rounds followed the same script as the first with Dos Anjos holding his own on the feet and dominating the wrestling and grappling exchanges. If Dos Anjos continues to improve the way he has in his past few fights, he will be a serious threat in the lightweight division. He already has some of the best jiu-jitsu at 155 lbs and the addition of a serious wrestling and striking game makes him a contender. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Njokuani seems to be stuck. His striking is impressive but he just doesn’t have the wrestling or grappling to compete at a high level. He can still put on exciting fights when matched up with strikers but doesn’t seem to be a serious threat in the absurdly deep UFC lightweight division.

UFC on Fuel TV 4 – MMAFix Staff Picks

Most of the staff is still recovering from UFC 148 so for UFC on Fuel TV 4, only Ryan and I will bringing you picks. But after his 6-0 performance on Saturday, who else’s picks.

Most of the staff is still recovering from UFC 148 so for UFC on Fuel TV 4, only Ryan and I will bringing you picks. But after his 6-0 performance on Saturday, who else’s picks do you really need?


Chris Weidman (-145) vs. Mark Munoz (+115)
Ryan: No clue why Weidman is the favorite to win. Munoz has faced higher level opponents and he looked more impressive than Weidman when you compare both their fights against Demian Maia. Munoz will shrug off Weidman’s submission attempts and control him on the ground. Munoz by TKO via GNP. Winner: Munoz

Alan: I’m with Ryan here. I don’t expect a finish but I don’t see why Weidman is the favorite. And not only is he the favorite, but the line has moved more in his favor since the end of last week, which means people are betting Weidman. I don’t understand it. Two great wrestlers usually equals a striking match and Munoz has a pretty clear advantage there. What am I missing? Winner: Munoz


James Te Huna vs. Joey Beltran
Ryan: Te-Huna is coming off 2 impressive knockout wins, while Beltran lost his last 2 fights in the octagon. Te-Huna is better than Beltran in every aspect of the game. Te-Huna by KO. Winner: Te Huna

Alan: This is going to be a slugfest and I’m taking Te Huna as well. Beltran has a brick chin but Te Huna has a brick fist so as long as he lands first, he should get a quick TKO victory. Winner: Te Huna


Aaron Simpson vs. Kenny Robertson
Ryan: As long as Simpson isn’t drained by his first weight cut to 170lbs (which he shouldn’t because he his a veteran wrestler), he should have no problem beating Robertson. Simpson is a better wrestler and a more powerful striker. Simpson by TKO. Winner: Simpson

Alan: What we have here is a great minds think alike type situation. The biggest challenge for Simpson in this fight will be the weight cut. As long as he doesn’t gas, he should win this one easily. No disrespect to Robertson but Simpson went from a huge underdog to a huge favorite when Robertson was announced to replace Jon Fitch. Winner: Simpson


Karlos Vemola vs. Francis Carmont
Ryan: Vemola is a beast at 185lbs. He will have no problem out wrestling Carmont and look to take his back. If Vemola can’t sink in the RNC he will finish the fight by GNP. Winner: Vemola

Alan: We agree again. I don’t think the gap is as big between these two and Vemola could be in trouble if he decides to stand and trade but as long as he looks to get the takedown and control Carmont on the mat, he should be able to earn the victory. Winner: Vemola


T.J. Dillashaw vs. Vaughan Lee
Ryan: Lee is a well rounded fighter, but Dillashaw will sooner or later take Lee down and submit him (most likely with a RNC). Winner: Dillashaw

Alan: I don’t think this one will be close. Dillashaw is constantly improving training at Team Alpha Male and Lee was supposed to be a feeder for Kid Yamamoto. Dillashaw did everything but finish Walel Watson in his last fight and hopefully he can take that next step against Lee. Winner: Dillashaw


Anthony Njokuani vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
Ryan: Njokuani has trouble with good ground fighters. On top of that, Rafael dos Anjos has developed some excellent striking. Rafael dos Anjos by submission. Winner: Dos Anjos

Alan: We finally disagree! But after Ryan’s perfect night, I don’t feel great about it. I don’t think Dos Anjos has the wrestling to get Njokuani down and keep him down. Danny Castillo struggled to keep him down and I don’t think Dos Anjos has that kind of wrestling. I expect Njokuani to keep this fight mostly on the feet and strike his way to victory. Winner: Njokuani

UFC on Fuel TV 4 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part 1

Chris Weidman vs. Mark Munoz The headliner at UFC on Fuel TV 4 is a matchup of up and coming middleweights. After Anderson Silva’s dominant performance at UFC 148, fans are looking for someone who.

Chris Weidman vs. Mark Munoz

The headliner at UFC on Fuel TV 4 is a matchup of up and coming middleweights. After Anderson Silva’s dominant performance at UFC 148, fans are looking for someone who might be able to challenge him in the future and this fight features two of the brighter young prospects in the division. Both come from a highly decorated wrestling background as two time All-Americans with Munoz even capturing a national championship.

Munoz had his first professional MMA fight in the summer of 2007 and is 12-2 in his career. He has seven wins and two losses in his UFC career. One was in his first UFC appearance against Matt Hamill and the other was against perennial contender Yushin Okami. Since the loss to Okami, he has reeled off four straight victories including his last two appearances against Demian Maia and Chris Leben. As expected, his main asset in the cage is his wrestling but he is not a prototypical decision grinder like many of the former collegiate wrestlers. He has devastating power in his hands and has shown some of the fiercest ground and pound in all of MMA. He is one of the few fighters who has one punch knock out power on the ground as well as on the feet.

Weidman is less experienced than Munoz having made his debut in February of 2009 and having only eight professional fights thus far in his career. However, he has won all eight of those fights. His last four victories have come in the UFC with the last two coming against Tom Lawlor and Demian Maia. His most recent performance against Maia was lackluster at best, which could have been due to accepting the fight on late notice and struggling with the weight cut. Regardless of the reasons for the performance, he will need to improve greatly if he wants to continue his undefeated streak. Like Munoz, his game is predicated on wrestling but he seems to prefer submissions to ground and pound when looking to finish.

When two high caliber wrestlers meet in the octagon, the result is usually a less than technical kickboxing match. Based on previous performance, Munoz is the better striker but high level athletes like Weidman tend to grow exponentially between fights early in their careers so I expect him to show a marked improvement in his striking. That said, Munoz should still have the advantage. The key to this fight will be who, if anyone, can land takedowns. Munoz will more than likely look to use his wrestling defensively and hope to exploit a striking advantage. But if the striking is close, he may look for the takedown. Weidman will be the more likely fighter to try to engage in a wrestling match as earning top position would give him the opportunity to work his submission game.

Weidman is the favorite for this fight at -135 with Munoz coming in at +115. I know Weidman is the new hot prospect with his undefeated record but I don’t quite understand that line. We’ve seen these types of fights between top level wrestlers before and they almost always turn into striking matches. And based on what we’ve seen so far, Munoz has an advantage in that category. Expect to see these two stand for most of the fight and if that’s the case, Munoz should be able to oustrike his opponent. But if Weidman can get a few takedowns and control from the top position, he has the submission skills to finish the fight and earn the victory.

James Te Huna vs. Joey Beltran

The UFC gives the fans what they want with a heavyweight slugfest between James Te Huna and Joey Beltran. Both of these fighters approach the cage with the same gameplan every time. The are both looking to stand and bang until someone can’t stand any longer.

Te Huna is 14-2 overall including a 3-1 record in the UFC. He has won his last two fights against Aaron Rosa and Ricardo Romero via TKO in less than three minutes combined. His performance against Rosa in his last fight was particularly devastating and should have been stopped well before the forty seven second mark where it was finally ended. Te Huna’s weakness is his ground game but don’t expect Beltran to test it as he has done nothing but brawl throughout his career. He is 14-7 overall and went 3-4 in his most recent UFC stint being let go after back to back losses to Stipo Miocic and Lavar Johnson. Beltran has a ridiculous chin and has made a career of eating huge shots to land his own. This is a dangerous fight for him because he cannot afford to get hit too many times by Te Huna. This fight seems destined for a first round stoppage and unfortunately for Beltran, his jaw seems more likely to receive the shot that ends it.

None of the major bookmakers have odds for any of the fights on this card other than the main event but if they did, Te Huna would have to be a big favorite here. Beltran’s only hope is for his brick chin to allow him to survive long enough to land a haymaker on Te Huna. Expect a slugfest from the outset and this one will probably be done inside of the first five minute.

Aaron Simpson vs. Kenny Robertson

In a fight changed due to injury, Kenny Robertson replaces Jon Fitch to welcome Aaron Simpson to the welterweight division. Simpson has been a fixture in the UFC middleweight division for years but was never able to earn a signature victory. At thirty seven years old, he will make the cut to welterweight for the first time in the hopes of finding more success.

Simpson dropped a close decision to Ronny Markes in his last appearance. He hurt Markes early and won the first round but didn’t muster much offense after than and lost the last two rounds. Prior to that fight, he had won three straight following a two fight losing streak to Mark Munoz and Chris Leben. He will look to get back on the winning track against Robertson, who lost to Mike Pierce via TKO in the 2nd round in his only UFC appearance. However, that loss is the only one on Robertson’s record so this is an opportunity for him to earn his way into the UFC. Simpson comes from a wrestling background and has developed his striking over the years. He has the power to finish the fight with his hands and has done so on many occasions. Robertson prefers to bring the fight to the ground and work his submission game, which will be difficult to do against a wrestler like Simpson.

Unfortunately for Robertson, he faces a similar situation to what he faced in his first UFC appearance against Mike Pierce. Simpson is stronger and a better wrestler, which will make it difficult for Robertson to get the fight to the ground where he wants it. Expect Simpson to use his strength to control the fight and if he finds Robertson’s chin, the fight could be over quickly. However, if Robertson can make Simpson work and take the fight into the third round, we might see Simpson struggling with his cardio after cutting to 170 lbs for the first time. If that’s the case, Robertson may get the opportunity to get Simpson on the ground and work for submissions.

UFC on Fuel TV 4 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part 2

Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Anthony Njokuani In another fight changed due to injury, the UFC on Fuel TV 4 opener will feature Anthony Njokuani and Rafael Dos Anjos who steps in to replace Paul Taylor..


Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Anthony Njokuani

In another fight changed due to injury, the UFC on Fuel TV 4 opener will feature Anthony Njokuani and Rafael Dos Anjos who steps in to replace Paul Taylor. Normally, the UFC likes to start their cards with a fight between lighter weight fighters who are likely to stand and strike to get the crowd into the event and hook the television audience. With Njokuani and Taylor, that would have been the case. Instead, we will see a classic grappler versus striker matchup as Dos Anjos will look to get Njokuani to the ground and work his black belt level jiu-jitsu.

Njokuani is one of the best strikers in the lightweight division. His long lean frame gives him a huge reach advantage against just about every other fighter in the division including Dos Anjos. His gameplan is pretty much the same for every fight. He looks to use his reach to keep his opponent at a distance and strike his way to victory. He is capable of a knockout but is not known for finishing and if he does earn a finish, it usually comes late in the fight due more to an accumulation of strikes than to the power of any one individual strike. He is 2-2 in his UFC career since moving over from the WEC with wins against John Makdessi and Andre Winner and losses against Edson Barboza and Danny Castillo. His performance against Makdessi in his last appearance was particularly impressive as he used his length to dominate with kicks. But he’ll need to be in even better form if he wants to put together back to back victories as Dos Anjos represents a step up in competition. Dos Anjos is mainly known as a jiu-jitsu fighter who looks to get his opponents to the mat and submit them. He has earned half of his sixteen career victories via submission including his last victory against Kamal Shalorus by rear naked choke. However, he set up the choke with a head kick that dropped Shalorus showing an improvement in his striking ability. Dos Anjos has been up and down in his UFC career with a 5-4 record but a victory against Njokuani would earn him back to back victories for the first time since 2010.

This fight is likely to be determined by whether or not Dos Anjos succeeds in landing the takedown. He showed improved striking against Shalorus but he is not on Njokuani’s level in that area and he will struggle to close the distance against the reach advantage of his opponent. The last fighter to get Njokuani down and control him was Danny Castillo. And even he struggled to maintain any kind of dominant position. Dos Anjos’s takedowns are not on that level and he is likely to struggle to get Njokuani down and keep him down. Expect Njokuani to use his reach advantage to keep Dos Anjos at distance and if he can do that, he should be able to strike his way to victory. But Dos Anjos only needs a few seconds on the ground to lock on to a submission so if he can get the takedown, he could earn the victory.

T.J. Dillashaw vs. Vaughan Lee

In the second fight of the night on Fuel TV, young bantamweight prospect T.J. Dillashaw will face Vaughan Lee. Dillashaw is just twenty six years old and has a 5-1 career record. The team alpha male product will look to build on his last victory against Walel Watson and continue to establish himself as a threat in the 135 lb division. Lee will be looking to prove that his upset victory over Norifumi Yamamoto was not a fluke and earn the right to continue fighting in the UFC.

Lee is 1-1 in his UFC career having lost a split decision to Chris Cariaso in his first fight before shocking everyone by upsetting Yamamoto in Japan at UFC 144. Lee was in trouble early in that fight but responded with a flying knee that eventually led to an armbar submission victory late in the first round. With a 12-7-1 career record, he will need to pull off another upset to prove that he belongs in the UFC bantamweight division. Coming from one of the best camps in the world, T.J. Dillashaw is looking to establish himself as a serious threat at 135 lbs. He dominated Walel Watson in his last UFC appearance earning a unanimous decision victory. He repeatedly put Watson on his back and rode him back and forth from mount to back mount landing strikes all along the way. He did everything but finish and he’ll be looking to do just that in this fight.

Dillashaw is the clear favorite going into this fight. He will look to put Lee on his back and work his impressive grappling game. But he’ll need to be careful as Lee has more to offer on the ground than Watson did. Expect to see a lot of grappling and whoever gets the better of the scrambles will likely earn the victory. If Dillashaw continues to show the kind of improvement he showed between his last two fights, he should be able to earn his second consecutive UFC victory.

Karlos Vemola vs. Francis Carmont

In a matchup of exciting middleweights who rarely make use of the judges scorecards, Karlos Vemola takes on Francis Carmont. Neither is a serious contender in the division but both have a tendency to fight aggressively, which is good news for the fans. Both fighters have knockout power and both are capable of submissions.

Vemola has alternated wins and losses on his way to a 2-2 record in the UFC. He earned a second round victory via rear naked choke against Mike Massenzio in his last appearance. That marked his fifth career victory in eleven fights via RNC. Vemola is an explosive fighter with big power in his hands. His submission victories are also usually based on overpowering his opponents. However, he is not the most technical fighter and has been controlled by opponents who approach him with a clear game plan of avoiding the exchanges and putting him on his back. Carmont, however, is not that type of fighter. He also looks for the finish and is likely to trade with Vemola early, which could be dangerous. If he goes for the takedown, he will look for submissions and not be interested in simply controlling his opponent. Carmont is 2-0 in his UFC career including his most recent victory over Magnus Cedenbland via rear naked choke. He was in trouble in the first round of that fight but responded in the second round with a quick takedown. From there, he moved to mount and used strikes to force his opponent to give up his back and neck.

This is another fight that isn’t likely to go to a decision. I don’t see either fighter having a clear advantage and the outcome will likely depend on who executes the most effective gameplan. Both fighters should be looking to set up a takedown and work from the top position as they both have the same weakness. If either fighter takes that approach, he is likely to earn the victory. But the more likely outcome is a series of exchanges on the feet and scrambles on the ground that eventually lead to a finish.

UFC 148 Post Fight Breakdown

Anderson Silva v Chael Sonnen In one of the most hyped fights in UFC history, middleweight champion Anderson Silva once again defended his title against Chael Sonnen. For one round, it looked like we may.

Anderson Silva v Chael Sonnen

In one of the most hyped fights in UFC history, middleweight champion Anderson Silva once again defended his title against Chael Sonnen. For one round, it looked like we may have been witnessing a replay of their first fight. Sonnen came out and immediately landed a takedown. Just like the first fight, he proceeded to land his particular brand of annoying but not very damaging ground and pound. He managed to move to mount by the end of the round but was only able to land a few shoulder strikes after moving into the dominant position. Sonnen started the second round exactly the same way. He pushed Silva against the cage and worked for the takedown. But this time Silva was able to do what he was unable to do in the first fight. He defended the takedown and managed to get separation from Sonnen. Upon separating, Silva did some showboating. With his arms by his sides, he popped Sonnen with a quick right. Sonnen countered with a left that seemed to hurt Silva just enough to make him angry. Silva pushed forward with aggression rarely seen in his UFC title run. He didn’t land anything cleanly but his forward push put Sonnen off balance. And then for a reason no one will ever understand, olympic caliber wrestler Chael Sonnen decided to throw a backyard fight club style spinning back fist that resulted in him sitting on his butt against the cage seemingly unsure of what to do. Silva wan’t unsure and threw a knee to the body of his seated opponent. He then attacked with punches. Sonnen eventually stood up. But a right hand to the chin put him back down and he would not get up again.

Silva never landed the flashy strike that I’m sure he envisioned in training but he did enough to establish that Sonnen does not belong in the same cage with him. Once again, Sonnen showed that he panics when he senses danger and instead of going through the proper progression of defensive techniques, he puts himself in a position to be finished. He was basically running away when he threw the back fist and when he hit the ground, he just sat there and waited for Silva to attack. He didn’t seem to have changed anything about his gameplan and that simply was not going to be enough to win the fight. Anderson Silva is one of the best pound for pound fighters on the planet and he doesn’t currently have a legitimate contender in his division. Alan Belcher, Michael Bisping and Brian Stann are the names currently being discussed in the title picture and none of them look like a serious threat. Hector Lombard looms in the background but he needs at least one solid UFC victory before he can be considered a serious contender. So for now, Silva remains the undisputed king of the 185 pound division. Sonnen drops back down in the rankings and I don’t see a reason for him to ever get another shot at Silva unless he absolutely cleans out every other contender in the division, which seems unlikely.

Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz

The third match in this trilogy between former light heavyweight champions proved to be the clear fight of the night as Griffin slugged his way to a hard fought decision victory over Ortiz. Ortiz managed to land a couple of takedowns in the first round but was not able to keep Griffin down or do any damage and when the fight was standing, Griffin out landed Ortiz by a wide margin. The second round started with Ortiz dropping Griffin with a right hand but after that, Griffin once again dominated the rest of the round. The third round was the only one that I scored for Ortiz as he once again dropped Griffin, this time with the left hand. From there he was able to get a takedown and control the fight for the majority of the round. Once Griffin got back to his feet, he controlled the striking just as he did in the first two rounds but it wasn’t enough to win back the round. As much as I would have loved to score this fight in favor of Ortiz, the striking statistics made it obvious that Griffin was the clear winner. Ortiz actually landed the bigger power punches but the volume of Griffin’s strikes was overwhelming and he deserved to have his hand raised.
For Ortiz, I can’t imagine a better way to leave the sport regardless of the outcome. He slugged it out with another hall of famer for three exciting rounds and went out on his sword. He never gave in to the relentless pressure and had Griffin in danger several times. This trilogy is one of the better ones in MMA history thus far with all three fights going to a decision and being relatively close. Ortiz has been a polarizing figure throughout his MMA career but last night, he gave the fans a great way to remember him.


Cung Le vs. Patrick Cote

Cung Le proved that he isn’t done yet in the UFC middleweight division with a convincing victory over Patrick Cote. Cote simply could not figure out Le’s trademark san shou style as Le battered him with kicks and punches. Cote stayed in the fight and landed several power shots of his own but was never able to put Le in danger and was unable to cope with the volume and variety of strikes coming from his opponent. The fight was close through most of the first round with both fighters landing and Cote being the aggressor. But after taking several shots, Cote started to back off and that was the recipe for his defeat. When he relented, he allowed Le to find his range and from that point on, Le controlled the fight. By the middle of the second round, he was beginning to dominate using his full arsenal of kick and punch combinations. When the third round started, the outcome of the fight was not in doubt and Le continued his assault battering Cote all around the cage. He even landed a takedown at the end of the round. Cote was game but was outclassed throughout the majority of the fight and could not find a home for his powerful right hand. For Cote, this could mean a quick exit from the UFC. He will probably get one more fight and will need to win that if he hopes to stay in the big show. For Le, this puts him back in the hunt in the middle of the 185 lb division. He will likely see another step up in competition but at age forty, he likely doesn’t have much time left to compete at the highest level. He seemed to tire late in this fight but Cote didn’t have the skill set to take advantage of it. Against higher level competition, that will likely be a bigger issue.

Demian Maia vs. Dong Hyun Kim

What could have been an entertaining fight ended in the first minute due to injury when Kim appeared to suffer a broken rib on a routine takedown by Maia. What we did learn in this fight is that Maia looked great at 170 lbs. Kim is one of the larger fighters in the division and Maia looked just as big so instead of being one of the smaller middleweights, he’ll now be one of the bigger welterweights. We also learned that Maia wasn’t just talking when he said he was going back to his jiu-jitsu routes. He wasted no time in attempting a single leg takedown and quickly transitioned to Kim’s back. He was relentless and appeared to be gaining a dominant position before Kim suffered his injury. We’ll never know how the fight would have ended had it been able to continue but Maia had the early advantage. From here, Maia will likely get to step up in competition due to his name and Kim will likely continue to tread water in the middle of the division until he gets another opportunity against a high level fighter. Ideally, a rematch would be possible. But that seems unlikely considering the timeline on Kim’s recovery and the UFC’s probable eagerness to move Maia up the welterweight ranks.

Chad Mendes vs. Cody McKenzie

This fight was an obvious mismatch on paper and proved to be even more of a mismatch in the cage. McKenzie threw a sloppy kick to open the fight, Mendes caught it, countered with a right to the body and ended the fight. McKenzie’s run on the Ultimate Fighter based entirely on the novelty of his modified guillotine was fun but he clearly doesn’t have the technique or athleticism to seriously compete in the featherweight division. On the opposite end of that featherweight spectrum is Mendes who is still one of the best in the world at 145 lbs despite his title fight loss to Jose Aldo. Mendes should see a return to fighting against top tier competition in his next fight while McKenzie will likely spend the next year or so struggling to stay in the UFC. The unfortunate part about mismatches like this is that we don’t really learn anything about either fighter and neither fighter really has a chance to grow. But for Mendes, this at least puts another finish on his record and hopefully he can carry the momentum from such a dominating performance into his next fight.

Ivan Menjivar vs. Mike Easton

In the opening fight of the UFC 148 main card, Mike Easton and Ivan Menjivar struck their way to a close three round decision. Neither fighter ever gained a significant advantage and neither fighter was ever in any danger of being finished. The difference in the fight proved to be Easton’s relentless pressure and forward movement. Menjivar seemed to have the cleaner technique early in the fight and was able to initially avoid most of Easton’s power shots while countering with his own. But as the fight progressed, Easton’s leg kicks and body shots started to take effect and Menjivar’s movement slowed significantly compared to the first round. By the third round, Easton began to take a clear advantage and was obviously the fresher fighter. He landed several several power strikes and scored a takedown when Menjivar attempted a spinning back kick. I was surprised to see two of the judges score all three rounds for Easton as I thought the fight was closer than that. I gave Menjivar the first round and had him ahead in the second round until Easton stole it at the end. But the third was clearly in favor of Easton and he deserved the victory. He will see a step up in competition but if he wants to progress in the bantamweight division, he will need to continue to improve as both of his recent victories have been close decisions. At this point in his career, Menjivar is who he is as a fighter. He will continue to provide entertaining fights and should serve as an effective gatekeeper at 135 lbs.