Tag: Preview/Prediction

UFC 211 kicks off the organization’s summer season with a bang in Dallas, Texas as Stipe Miocic looks to defend his heavyweight title against Junior dos Santos in the main event. 

The two will be running back an instant-classic slugfest in 2014 when JDS took a unanimous decision from the current champion. That was then, though. 

A lot has changed since that memorable fight. Miocic has gone from massive underdog in that matchup to the champion and slight favorite over the Brazilian, according to OddsShark. 

Miocic and Dos Santos is sure to be fire, but it’s going to have stiff competition for Fight of the Night. Joanna Jedrzejczyk will also be in a firefight to defend her title against Jessica Andrade. 

Here’s a look at the PPV card, along with the latest odds from OddsShark and the biggest questions coming into Saturday night. 

 

Has Stipe Miocic Evolved Beyond Junior Dos Santos?

In a way, it was Stipe Miocic‘s loss to Junior dos Santos in 2014 that set him up to be the champion today. Until then, Miocic was considered a mid-tier heavyweight. 

He was 6-1 in the Octagon, but his best win was against Roy Nelson. He had been knocked out by Stefan Struve. Good, but not great. 

Then came his opportunity against Dos Santos. Cigano was coming off his second loss to Cain Velasquez, still looking like the best heavyweight that wasn’t Velasquez. It was a rebound fight. 

But Miocic never got that memo. Instead of playing the role of punching bag. Miocic dug his toes in and fired back. The Ohio native unflinchingly went after the former champion and turned the bout into a slugfest. 

Dos Santos won, but Miocic left everyone with the same takeaway: His skills weren’t quite on the same level of Dos Santos, but he wasn’t as far as originally thought and his toughness can take him a long way. 

As it turns out, that toughness has taken him all the way to the top. Now the roles will be reversed in the main event, but the same question still remains: Have Miocic‘s skills surpassed Dos Santos?

It’s an interesting question because both fighters like to do similar things. JDS and Miocic are both boxers looking to land that knockout punch. Miocic is the slightly better grappler, but not enough to make it the obvious path to victory for him. 

According to Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics‘ numbers, Dos Santos is still the more accurate striker of the two. 

However, Miocic‘s striking has come a long way since 2014. While JDS has become a bit more patient and tactical with his choices and pace, Miocic has become an excellent counterpuncher. 

That’s what could be the difference as Miocic catches JDS with the counter that puts him to sleep after initial success from both fighters. 

                      

Can Joanna Jedrzejczyk Withstand Jessica Andrade‘s Power for Five Rounds?

On March 14, 2015, Joanna Jedrzejczyk became the second women’s strawweight champion in UFC history. She hasn’t looked back since. 

The Polish phenom has outclassed four challengers for the belt. Outstriking opponents in the clinch and from range with record-making efficiency, per UFC Europe:

However, being the most dominant strawweight isn’t enough for Jedrzejczyk. She has her eyes on an even bigger goal of being the most dominant women’s champion in the organization’s history, eclipsing Ronda Rousey‘s standard for title defenses. 

“I want to be the first female fighter to hold two belts,” Jedrzejczyk said, per Mike Bohn of Rolling Stone. “First I want to reach the record of Ronda Rousey. She had six successful title defenses, which is a pretty big deal to me. I want to be an undefeated champion and retire undefeated. It’s not going to be easy.”

Of the potential challengers for the champion’s throne, Andrade might be the most dangerous. Jedrzejczyk is not an exceptionally large strawweight. She’s lean and long but has been challenged by the likes of Claudia Gadelha who could neutralize her advantage in the clinch. 

Andrade should fit that bill. She made her UFC debut and fought seven times at 135 pounds before making the cut down to 115. 

The Brazilian has serious stopping power too. 12 of her 16 career wins have come by way of either TKO or submission. 

Jedrzejczyk is the ultimate volume striker, but her ability to break down opponents is just that: The ability to break down an opponent over time. Andrade will have a power advantage throughout the fight, but especially early. 

“Joanna Champion” will need to fend off the early onslaught from Andrade in this fight to take over in the later rounds and assert her will. 

               

Can Demian Maia Get Jorge Masvidal to the Ground?

It just seems like whatever Demian Maia does, respect never seems to follow. 

The 39-year-old will enter his fight against dangerous opponent Jorge Masvidal on a six-fight win streak that includes Carlos Condit, Matt Brown and Gunnar Nelson. Yet he’s preparing for a bout against Jorge Masvidal instead of UFC champion Tyron Woodley. 

It appeared Maia was in line to be Woodley‘s next title opponent, but when Woodley was scheduled to fight Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson again, he chose to take a fight against Masvidal. 

The current champ explained why that’s a potentially bad move. 

“Unfortunately for Maia, he accepted the fight the week of me and Wonderboy‘s fight. In my personal opinion, bad move. Wait and see how the fight went. If nobody came out of the fight hurt, a clear winner, not another draw, you’re already in a position to fight for a world title,” Woodley said on the “UFC Undisputed“ podcast (via Damon Martin of Fox Sports). “Why would you put yourself up against the worst possible matchup outside of a title fight? Why would you put yourself in that position?”

Masvidal is, at heart, a brawler. His background as a street fighter can be seen in his approach to attacking opponents in the cage, and he’ll likely have the advantage while these two are standing. 

However, if the fight goes to the mat, it’ll be Jaws: MMA Edition as Maia drags Masvidal down into his submission game. 

Maia’s takedown game is sneaky good. He’s always given credit for his grappling, which has led to 12 submission victories in his career, but it’s his singular drive to score the takedown that sets everything up. Former opponent Matt Brown broke down the Brazilian’s takedown game, per Jonathan Snowden of Bleacher Report.

“The one thing different I felt from him, different than every person I’ve ever fought or even trained with, was he didn’t seem interested in chaining things together or transitioning from one technique to the next,” Brown said. “He had an idea of what he wanted and he was going to go for that with a single-minded purpose until he got it. He was willing to live or die based on getting what he wanted.”

This is a huge fight in the welterweight division, but whether Maia made the right choice comes down to one simple question: Can he take down Masvidal?

If he can, he may finally get that title shot. If not, Masvidal could be the one with the massive momentum after Saturday night. 

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In 2014, Stipe Miocic and Junior dos Santos put on one of the best fights in heavyweight history. That’s not Joe Roganesque hyperbole. The two combined to land 212 significant strikes over five rounds and pushed each other to the brink. 

At UFC 211, the two will run that instant classic back with a championship belt on the line. 

If that weren’t enough to lure your eyeballs to this card, dominant women’s strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk will also put her title on the line against a dangerous opponent in Jessica Andrade in the evening’s co-main event. 

It’s a slate that not only features the two championship bouts, but former and future title contenders in Frankie Edgar, Demian Maia, Jorge Masvidal, Yair Rodriguez and Eddie Alvarez. 

Here’s a look at the complete card, how you can catch all the action and a look at who the biggest winners on the card might be. All odds courtesy of OddsShark. 

 

Potential Biggest Winners

Demian Maia

As the lead-in to the championship double header, Demian Maia is in a spot where there will be a lot of eyes on his matchup with Jorge Masvidal. 

Maia also hasn’t fought since August 2016, so even though he’s riding a six-fight win streak with back-to-back submission wins, he isn’t on the tip everyone’s tongue in the welterweight division. Masvidal—however—is a fighter on the rise with a three-fight win streak and a TKO win over Donald Cerrone in January. 

With a win on a high-profile pay-per-view card over a hot opponent, Maia’s title chances all of a sudden come alive. Of course, that first means he has to beat Masvidal, but he appears to be taking the one-fight-at-a-time approach. 

“Of course I want to fight for the title first, but once we signed for the fight, I cleaned my mind,” Maia said, per Mike Bohn and John Morgan of MMAjunkie. “I said, ‘Let’s go and do what I love, which is fighting.’ I’m very blessed to do that, to do what I love and to go every day to the gym and make my living with that. That’s it.”

This is a classic grappler vs. striker matchup, so it’ll be interesting to see if and when Maia can drag the fight to the mat. 

Masvidal is dangerous on the feet, but he’s been prone to takedowns before. Ross Pearson took him down twice in their fight in 2016, while Benson Henderson, Daron Cruickshank and Pat Healy have all taken him down as well. 

As long as Maia can close the distance without getting tagged, he should be able to score the takedown. From there, it’s a matter of time before he sinks in a choke or maims a limb.

     

Yair Rodriguez

It’s no secret that the UFC wants to push featherweight Yair Rodriguez as a future star in the sport. The decision was to put Rodriguez in a headlining bout against fading legend B.J. Penn.

The allure is easy to see. 

Rodriguez is an entertaining fighter with a penchant for performance bonuses. Since winning The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America in 2014, he’s either won Fight of the Night or Performance of the Night in four of five fights. 

Rodriguez is also one of few Mexican fighters in the organization and part of an even smaller group that have a shot at a UFC title one day. The possibility has Rodriguez believing that he could be a bigger star in his home country than Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. 

“If I become a champion, if I become the first Mexican UFC champion, I can become bigger because I will be the first one,” Rodriguez said, per Damon Martin of Fox Sports. “There are already a lot of Mexican boxers, great boxers. I’m not saying Canelo is not great. He’s great. But I think I can become bigger than that because I’ll be the first one.”

The corrosion on Edgar’s career isn’t as clear as Penn’s. The former champion lost to Jose Aldo at UFC 200 but rebounded with a decision win over Jeremy Stephens. 

Still, at 35 years old with plenty of memorable fights in the book, it’s hard to tell when the other shoe will drop on his career. 

Edgar is always a fighter who has gotten by with savvy and ringcraft, but speed has always come into the equation. He’s going to have a huge discrepancy in length, and Rodriguez isn’t just a good fighter, but also a good athlete.

If Rodriguez can utilize that athleticism to score a win over Edgar, it’s going to be the win that takes him from up-and-comer to bonafide contender.

       

Dustin Poirier

For years, Dustin Poirier has flashed the potential to contend for a UFC championship. For years, he’s come up short when he needs to show up against improved competition.

Diamond gets a chance to change that at UFC 211 when he takes on former lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez in the prelim main event. 

It’s an opportunity that Poirier understands could open some doors if all goes as planned. 

“I told my management, ‘The only way I’m coming back is if it’s a big fight. Otherwise, let me have some time,‘” said Poirier, per Mike Bohn and John Morgan of MMAjunkie. “But as soon as Eddie’s fight came up I said, ‘Let’s do it.’ … When a name comes up like that and you get the opportunity to fight the former champ, you’ve got to do what you’ve got to do and try to get that fight.”

Alvarez is coming off a championship fight where he lost his belt to Conor McGregor. Finding motivation after being knocked down the mountain like that isn’t the easiest thing for most fighters to do. 

In addition to that, Poirier is simply one of the best strikers on the card, according to Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics:

There’s a reason this fight is serving as the lead-in to the pay-per-view portion of the evening. It’s going to set a violent example for the other fights to follow as both Alvarez and Poirier are capable of throwing down. 

If Poirier wins against a former champion in a big spot, it’ll be the sign that he’s finally overcome some of his demons against quality competition. 

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