Tag: Ryan Bader

UFC on FOX 4: Shogun vs. Vera — Live Results & Commentary


(“Then it’s settled. I’ll crouch behind him, and you push him over.” / Photo via CombatLifestyle. For more photos from this set, click here.)

I’ve got an idea: Instead of obsessing about who really deserves the next shot at the light-heavyweight title, let’s just kick back tonight and enjoy some free fights on FOX, two of which happen to feature former 205-pound champions (both Brazilian) facing off against hungry contenders (both American). Throw in a lightweight feature between Joe Lauzon and comeback kid Jamie Varner, and Mike Swick‘s first Octagon appearance in two-and-a-half years, and you’ve got a lineup that should hopefully take some of the sting off that $55 you blew on UFC 149.

The UFC on FOX: Shogun vs. Vera main card kicks off at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT, and our man Elias Cepeda will be guiding you through the play-by-play after the jump. Refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest, and give us the play-by-play for your own lives in the comments section.


(“Then it’s settled. I’ll crouch behind him, and you push him over.” / Photo via CombatLifestyle. For more photos from this set, click here.)

I’ve got an idea: Instead of obsessing about who really deserves the next shot at the light-heavyweight title, let’s just kick back tonight and enjoy some free fights on FOX, two of which happen to feature former 205-pound champions (both Brazilian) facing off against hungry contenders (both American). Throw in a lightweight feature between Joe Lauzon and comeback kid Jamie Varner, and Mike Swick‘s first Octagon appearance in two-and-a-half years, and you’ve got a lineup that should hopefully take some of the sting off that $55 you blew on UFC 149.

The UFC on FOX: Shogun vs. Vera main card kicks off at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT, and our man Elias Cepeda will be guiding you through the play-by-play after the jump. Refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest, and give us the play-by-play for your own lives in the comments section.

We’re live, taters!

Well-written intro accompanied by highlights from the card’s main event fighters. The silky smooth voice of Ving Rhames narrating certainly helps, just sayin’…

Mike Swick Vs. DeMarques Johnson

Johnson is a tough out for anyone at welterweight, and we’re stoked to see Swick for the first time in two years. Impossible to know how to call this one, but we don’t have to wait much longer now to see how it plays out.

I’d forgotten how many commercials take place during these free network events. Twenty minutes into the telecast, we’re finally on to the fighter introductions. Let’s get it on.

Rd 1

Johnson looks relaxed. He’s too relaxed. He moves his chin from a down position to more upright and Swick lands a big right hand to the jaw, buckling Johnson. They clinch briefly and are again in free striking range.

Swick with another big right hand that hurts Johnson. Now another, and another. Johnson isn’t going down without a fight, though, and takes Swick down with a little over 3:30 left. Swick in full guard against the cage, Johnson working elbows to the face. Swick is controlling Johnson’s posture well, preventing the TUF 9 finalist from posturing up and getting leverage to land big shots.

Swick gets up to his feet and lands two big shots to the dome of Johnson. Johnson fires back and hurts Swick with a right hand. Swick gets turned away but gets back in the pocket and throws punches and knees.

Johnson gets another takedown, takes Swick’s back and now is in the mount with a little over 1:30 left. Johnson takes the back again as Swick turns over. Swick is trying but having no success getting back up to his feet. Swick turns in and gets a half guard. Johnson lands an elbow and then locks in a D’arce choke on Swick with under a minute left. Johnson appears to have the choke locked in but then lets it go.

Swick gets his full guard with twenty seconds left. Johnson with a left elbow to Swick’s head and a punch to the right side of Swick’s body. The round ends.

Rd 2

Swick popped up to his feet right away at the end of the last round. Johnson smiles at Swick from across the cage. They touch gloves and get to rocking again. Swick lands a right hand, Johnson lands his own. Johnson throws a leg kick, Swick grabs the kick and takes Johnson down.

Straight away, Swick lands a huge right hand to the downed Johnson and knocks him out, just like that. The first shot put Johnson’s lights out, but Swick was so quick that he got two more in the face of Johnson before referee Herb Dean reaches the action and stops it.

Mike Swick with the second round KO win.

Joe Lauzon vs. Jamie Varner

This card is full of matchups that appear too close to call on paper. And you know what, this writer happens to feel that, skill-wise, the night’s main event between Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Brandon Vera is in that category as well. I know, I’m in the minority. Anyway, we can all agree that this lightweight bout is a great one. Will Varner continue his rise back to the top or will Lauzon get back on a road to a title shot after losing his last one?

Lauzon might have a slight edge on the ground, but will he be able to get the fight there on his terms against the strong wrestler, Varner? And if they stay on the feet, who’s striking will be better? Both men love to box, so we might be in for a treat.

Rd 1

Lots of feinting from both men before Varner gets off with a couple of missing punches to the head and body. Varner throws another hard right hand to the head. Lauzon blocks it but it had power. Varner now attacking the body with hooks. He’s landing.

Varner lands a right kick to the body, and then a leftkick to the leg. Varner lands a huge left hand that rocks Lauzon. Lauzon gets back in the pocket and continues to stalk Varner. Varner is still the one to get off first in the exchanges.

Not anymore. Lauzon gets off first this time, forces Varner to shoot. Lauzon stuffs it, lands a knee to the head. Lauzon’s hands are low as he stalks but now he’s firing first. Varner circles away nicely though to stay out of danger. Varner with another body kick. Varner with a glancing right hand to Lauzon’s head. Varner throws big punches but Lauzon blocks them. Joe fires back and backs Varner up, hurting him, then half attempting his own takedown. Varner doesn’t let it happen. Lauzon is landing three times the head shots as Varner is. Varner may be tiring. He took the fight on short notice.

Lauzon lands a clean right hand with under a minute left. Jamie clips and drops Lauzon. Lauzon threatens with an arm bar from his open guard right away but Varner defends. Varner looks to pass, Joe turtles up. Varner with knees to the body as he has a front head lock on Lauzon.

The horn sounds, the two get to their feet and embrace before returning to their respective corners.

Rd 2

Varner with an inside leg kick, then an outside round house to Lauzon’s lead leg. Varner now firing hard with punches but Lauzon covers up well. Lauzon checks a leg kick, Varner throws another one that goes throw to the back leg and nearly sweeps Lauzon.

Varner with a one-two combo, the over hand right gets to the top of Lauzon’s head. Varner clips Lauzon again with a right and stuns him. Joe goes for a single leg, Varner goes for the guillotine choke. Joe passes to the full mount, then takes Varner’s back. Varner stands up and gets Joe off of his back from the standing position.

They are both up on their feet again, striking. Varner not slowing down, throwing lots of punches to the head and body. Lauzon with a nice jab. Varner goes back to the body with punches. Lauzon lands four hooks to the head of Varner, takes Varner down, gets side control. Varner turns to his back, Joe fires punches to the head of Varner. Varner manages to get back up to his feet. Joe stays on him in the clinch, pressing him against the cage with a minute left.

Varner goes for a take down, he’s tired, though. They fall to the floor but Joe gets on top of Varner. Joe gets his back, then takes the mount, then goes for an arm triangle position with twenty seconds left. With time running out, Joe goes for an arm bar, doesn’t get it, loses position and Varner lands elbows to the head as the horn sounds.

Rd 3

They embrace as the round starts. Joe stalking Varner again. Varner realizes that he started the round without a mouth piece. The action is stopped so he can get it. Nuts.

Varner biding his time but throwing mean when he musters the energy to throw. Lauzon shoots for a double leg take down, but Varner sprawls expertly. He separates, Joe lands a jab. Varner shoots for a takedown, and lands it. Varner in a half butterfly guard of Lauzon.

Lauzon reverses position and gets back up to his feet. Varner throwing hard, lands an uppercut on Joe. Varner cocks back and throws a big right hand. Joe with another jab. Varner teeing off on Joe with punches and elbows, but Joe covers up and blocks. Varner gets the take down, Joe reverses, then gets rolled but locks on a triangle choke.

Joe gets the tap out via triangle choke in the third round. As Mike Goldberg says – Joe now has 22 wins, all by stoppage.

Lyoto Machida vs. Ryan Bader

Rd 1

Machida with his typical chin up, legs-wide stance. Bader feinting, swinging, missing. Bader taking his time, though, and not going crazy. Bader lands a leg kick, Lyoto lands a left body kick.

Two and a half minutes left. Machida lands a knee, then throws a left body kick as Bader throws a punch. Lyoto is blocked, Bader misses. Bader rushes in with punches, Machida keeps is distance while backing up.

Machida with another body kick and then an attempted over hand elbow strike. Machida lands a snapping jab that tags Bader. Bader comes in, Machida cuts an angle to his right and fires a body kick. Bader throws a left hook then gets into the clinch.

Machida breaks free and then throws a front kick to the body. Bader lands a lunging jab. The round horn sounds.

Rd 2

Ryan feinting hard at the start of the round. Machida doing weird hand movement stuff to get Bader distracted, as he is prone to do. Bader rushes in once more and Machida swiftly knocks the TUF winner out with a short right hook.

“I feel very well…it was a great performance. I want to say, The Dragon is back!” Machida getting his English on during his post-fight interview with Joe Rogan.

Lyoto Machida back on the winning track with a second round KO over Ryan Bader. Will that be “impressive” enough for Machida to get another crack at champion Jon Jones? I guess that’s up to “Shogun” and Vera, up next.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Brandon Vera

Rd 1

Vera with a big rear body kick on Rua. Rua shoots and scores a take down on the much larger Vera. As Rogan observantly points out, Vera has had the most difficulty when he’s been put on his back and ground down.

Rua working to pass Vera’s half guard. Rua almost passes the half guard but Vera recomposes. Rua keeps working and passes the guard to side control with three minutes left. Rua switches his hips from side control, Vera turns in and tries to get to his feet. Vera wall-walks and gets to the feet. Rua presses Vera against the cage in the clinch and then dives low for a single leg attempt. Vera pulls a guillotine choke and works it from his open guard.

Rua is out! He fires an elbow strike and is in Vera’s full guard. Rua immediately works to pass guard again. He gets to half guard and begins to fire punches to the head of Vera. Vera’s got a half butterfly guard and tries to lift Rua up in the air. Rua passes to side control again with just under a minute left. Rua takes the mount, Vera turns and gives up his back and Rua takes his back!

Rua has both hooks in with thirty seconds left. Shogun has an over-under grop, then gives it up to throw light punches and hammer fists. Vera does not let Rua flatten out his hips and the round ends with Rua face down, on Vera’s back.

Rd 2

Vera throws a kick but Shogun responds with huge punches to Vera’s head, rocking Vera. Vera backs up against the cage, takes more shots, then knees. Vera fires back with a left elbow to Rua’s head. Vera has been hurt but he’s not giving up, with four minutes left in the round.

Vera lands a a straight left punch to Rua’s head. Vera with a right hook to the head, then a left kick to the body, then a front stomp kick to Rua’s lead knee. Vera slips aright hand from Rua then lands a huge left hand of his own. Rua responds with a cross that hurts Vera. Rua gets Vera in a Thai plum clinch control and throws lots of knees. Vera blocks well but is on the defensive. He falls to his knees, is turtled up as Shogun throws big punches.

Vera gets to his feet and clips Rua on the chin! Rua with a right hand. Rua with another right hand! Vera with an elbow. Rua lands another right hand and presses Vera against the cage. Vera turns him around and has over-under control on Rua, with his head pressed against Rua’s chin for leverage. Vera lands a slam take down and is in Rua’s half guard with a minute left.

Rua is cut and fatigued after not being able to put Vera away with his big shots. Vera looks pretty tired as well, throwing knees to Rua’s body from the half guard. Rua’s half guard is loose but Vera isn’t looking to pass. Ten seconds left and Vera fires elbows to Rua’s head. The horn sounds.

Rd 3

Rua presses Vera against the cage and works for a take down. Vera trying knees from the clinch there. Rua drops down for another take down. Vera defends. They are in free standing range again.

Vera with another front kick to Rua’s knee. Vera with a punch-kick combination going to the head, body and leg. Vera slips a punch from Rua, Rua presses Vera against the cage. Rua has a front head lock and knees Vera to the head.

Vera drops down to his knees to avoid being legally kneed in the head again. Shogun working the front head lock, with Vera’s right leg hooked by his left arm. Rua stands up and tees off on Vera with punches and kicks while pressing down on Vera’s head. Vera gets up to his feet and immediately lands a multiple punch and leg kick combination.

Vera lands another strike combination. Rua lands a big shot to the head. Vera lands a front leg kick, then punches and knees, hurting Rua and forcing him against the cage. Rua responds by taking Vera down. They are in the center of the ring in Vera’s half guard with a minute and a half left. Rua tries to pass the half guard.

Rua nearly in mount, Vera turns away, Rua gets to triple attack position and hammer fists. Vera turns back into Rua, using his half guard. Thirty seconds left and Vera is still using his half guard. Rua mostly pressuring and looking to pass. The round ends with Rua on top in half guard.

Rd 4

Rua with a a big short punch. Shogun presses Vera against the cage and looks for a take down, Vera stuffs him. Rua lands a nice knee to the body and then head of Vera. Vera with his back to the cage, working his own knees to the legs and body of Rua now.

Vera throws a short left elbow followed by a short right elbow to the head of Rua. Rua lands his own big upper cut and presses Vera against the cage again, using his own head control on Vera’s chin, then following up with a left hook to the head. Both men with over under hooks, Vera with his back agaisnt the cage. Vera lands a knee to Rua’s body. Rua backs up and they are free standing with under 1:30. Rua with a straight punch landing, then Vera rocks Rua. Rua stalks and walks Vera down, landing a two punch combo that drops Vera to the mat. Vera is out of it, Rua lands a couple more academic strikes and the referee stops the fight.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua beats Brandon Vera via 4th round TKO stoppage from strikes on the ground. Who do you think should get the next title shot, nation?

Thanks for partying all night long with us, now go be productive members of society before coming back tomorrow for post-event press conference coverage, analysis and more.

The Unsupportable Opinion: If Lyoto Machida Wins Tonight, he Automatically Gets Next Title Shot


Props: Jason Deebank via MMAFanMade

By Seth Falvo (@SethFalvo)

We’re just hours away from UFC on FOX 4, where four men will attempt to become the least impressive light-heavyweight title challenger since Elvis Sinosic by winning in the most impressive manner possible. To paraphrase Jeff Fox, the winner of the upcoming Jones vs. Henderson bout will defend his belt against the winner of tonight’s semantics game. There’s got to be a catch, right?

Of course there is. Even the dimmest MMA fans among us have already interpreted this as a way for Dana White to back out of giving Brandon Vera a title shot if he were to actually defeat Shogun Rua tonight. Shogun is obviously the preferable contender, but just in case he blows this somehow, we’ll shrug it off and put the winner of Machida/Bader in the cage with Jones/Hendo, right? Quite the contrary: This semantics game was designed to give Lyoto Machida a title shot with a victory.

Right now, some of you are screaming “What kind of idiot hack journalist are you, Seth?!” at your screens. First, allow me to welcome you to Cage Potato; you’re obviously new here. Second, let me lay it out for you with four simple reasons after the jump.


Props: Jason Deebank via MMAFanMade

By Seth Falvo (@SethFalvo)

We’re just hours away from UFC on FOX 4, where four men will attempt to become the least impressive light-heavyweight title challenger since Elvis Sinosic by winning in the most impressive manner possible. To paraphrase Jeff Fox, the winner of the upcoming Jones vs. Henderson bout will defend his belt against the winner of tonight’s semantics game. There’s got to be a catch, right?

Of course there is. Even the dimmest MMA fans among us have already interpreted this as a way for Dana White to back out of giving Brandon Vera a title shot if he were to actually defeat Mauricio “Shogun” Rua tonight. Shogun is obviously the preferable contender, but just in case he blows this somehow, we’ll shrug it off and put the winner of Machida/Bader in the cage with Jones/Hendo, right? Quite the contrary: This semantics game was designed to give Lyoto Machida a title shot with a victory.

Right now, some of you are screaming “What kind of idiot hack journalist are you, Seth?!” at your screens. First, allow me to welcome you to Cage Potato – you’re obviously new here. Second, let me lay it out for you with four simple reasons.

1.) A victory over Ryan Bader is more impressive than a victory over Vera/Rua. Seriously. Heading into tonight, Ryan Bader is the only fighter out of the four “contenders” who has won two straight fights, having recently defeated Jason Brilz and Rampage Jackson in his last two bouts. Before that he was caught in a fluke guillotine by Tito Ortiz and dominated by Jon Jones (as was everyone else on this list, so that’s understandable), which make up the only two blemishes on his record. He’s the youngest of the four, the most decorated wrestler of the four and is always a game opponent.

The same simply cannot be said for either Brandon Vera or Shogun Rua. Excuse me if it seems like I’m harping on this, but Brandon Vera has not won a meaningful fight since he defeated Frank Mir back in 2006. He’s coming into tonight with a victory over a gift-wrapped Eliot Marshall, yet Vera almost managed to snatch defeat from the bitter jaws of victory and get knocked out in that fight. A victory over Brandon Vera earned Jon Jones a crack at Vladimir Matyushenko. There’s absolutely no reason why a victory over Brandon Vera should earn Shogun Rua a crack at Jon Jones.

As for Shogun? Let’s face it: He’s a thirty year old post-prime PRIDE veteran with bad knees. He hasn’t won back-to-back fights since he beat the mummified versions of Mark Coleman and Chuck Liddell that were on the UFC roster in 2009 (although he arguably should have won three straight). If he loses tonight, he’ll have lost three of his last four fights. I hate to say this, but if Shogun Rua loses tonight, it may be time to move him away from the title picture for good. But then again, “loses” is a bit misleading because…

2.) Vera won’t “win” so much as Shogun will “lose” if the unthinkable happens. It feels strange to argue that the casual fan’s opinion doesn’t matter, because, as I’ve pointed out before, it matters even more than most of us edumacated fans would care to acknowledge. Hell, their lack of interest in these Fox cards is probably what led to this mess in the first place. To the casual fan – who knows nothing of either Brandon Vera or Shogun Rua – a win is a win regardless. Plus Vera actually winning would kind of have that Rocky feel to it, so as long as he is exciting he will have earned a chance to get destroyed in a title fight, right?

There’s just one problem – “The Most Impressive Victory” won’t be determined by an ‘American Idol’ voting system. It will be determined by Dana White, who is anything but a casual fan.

Let’s admit it: If Vera goes out and wins tonight, hardcore fans like ourselves will all be wondering what was wrong with Shogun. And why wouldn’t we? We’ve been following the vicious knockout artist since his days of fighting in Muay Thai smokers in some dude’s house. We know what he’s capable of, and we know that a can like Vera shouldn’t be able to beat him. If he gets submitted, we’ll say that he just got caught; kind of like how we reacted to Werdum submitting Fedor. If he actually gets knocked out, we’ll wonder if Rua should start to consider retirement. We know too much to perceive it any other way.

Besides, if Vera does manage to beat Shogun Rua, it will more than likely be by neutralizing Shogun’s aggressive attack with a “Stick. Move. Wall. Stall. Rinse. Wash. Repeat.” offense. And as much as the casual fan may like a good story, the casual fan absolutely hates this style of fighting. With the turd on a plate that was UFC 149 fresh in his memory, the last thing Dana White wants to do is give a boring fighter a title shot.

I hope you aren’t done philosophizing, because…

3.) Likewise, Rua can’t “impressively” defeat Brandon Vera. I’ll keep this one short, because it’s essentially everything I just said in the last paragraph applied to Shogun instead of Vera. We know how mediocre Brandon Vera has been since 2007. Perceptions, rinse wash repeat joke, you get the idea. The bottom line here is that if Rua goes out and smashes “The Truth,” then, well…yeah. He was fighting a guy who only had a job in the first place because of Thiago Silva’s fake urine shenanigans. If Vera actually stays in this fight, we’ll all be talking about how bad Shogun looked to allow the 2012 Truth to be competitive against him. It’s a lose-lose scenario for Rua, which will make a Lyoto Machida victory look more impressive by default.

4.) Lyoto Machida vs. Jon Jones could give us the satisfying ending to the Anderson Silva vs. Jon Jones super fight we’re looking for. One of the reasons that the UFC has been driving boxing towards extinction was that Dana White wouldn’t allow his best fighters to duck each other. His fighters knew that it was all about protecting the UFC brand, not their own. If the fans wanted to see two guys fight, they either signed a contract to fight or started learning Japanese.

I used the past tense because, let’s face it, all of that is going on between Jon Jones and Anderson Silva. Both men have pretty much cleaned out their divisions, yet a super fight between the two is out of the question. These guys aren’t stupid. They know they’re too valuable to be released from the UFC, yet they can potentially lose all of that value with this proposed fight. It has to be Dana White’s worst nightmare as a promoter, and it can easily turn the fans that were drawn to the sport to avoid fighters ducking fights over to Bellator.

The UFC needs a way to either motivate both men to fight each other or make the fans lose interest in this fight, and Lyoto Machida provides both. Assuming that Jon Jones defeats Dan Henderson (because if he doesn’t, there goes the “I lose marketability” concerns), this sets “Bones” up with a fight against Anderson Silva’s Black House teammate, Lyoto Machida. This keeps some focus on the super fight, but it also keeps fans interested in the current title fight instead of dismissing it. In other words, with Vera/Rua, the fan perspective is “Look at Jones ducking Silva,” but with Machida, the perspective is now “Let’s see how Silva prepares Machida for Jones.”

We’ve seen Anderson Silva get fired up over cocky, disrespectful comments before (Sonnen, anyone?), and we’ve seen Jon Jones make plenty of those. If Jones goes on to defeat Machida again, does anyone honestly rule out the possibility of him calling Black House overrated? Didn’t think so. That could easily be enough to push Anderson Silva past protecting his image and into a fight with the cocky American. Likewise, if Machida actually defeats Bones, we’re no longer even entertaining the Silva vs. Jones discussion. Jon Jones just lost to Anderson Silva’s teammate, Silva has been vocal about not wanting to fight his teammates so we know a title fight between Machida and Jones is out…why do we want to see Silva move up to fight Jones again? The UFC’s best interest is providing fans with a satisfying ending to the Silva vs. Jones super fight, and Jones vs. Machida easily has the best chance of doing this. 

So there you have it. Lyoto Machida just has to defeat Ryan Bader to earn a title shot. Assuming that Sensei Seagal has been close by, Machida will probably win the casual fans over with a flashy knockout if he wins. As long as Jon Jones defeats Dan Henderson, Jones will get Machida, Henderson will get the rematch of the decade against Shogun Rua and Brandon Vera will finally get a pink slip. And all will be right in the world.

UFC on Fox 4 Results: Live Reactions and Play by Play from Cage Side

UFC on FOX 4 kicks off in just a few hours. It will be the fourth outing on network television, and tonight’s event features some great light heavyweight fights. So great in fact that the co-main and main event fighters are all competing for a title…

UFC on FOX 4 kicks off in just a few hours. It will be the fourth outing on network television, and tonight’s event features some great light heavyweight fights. So great in fact that the co-main and main event fighters are all competing for a title shot. 

In the main event, Mauricio Rua faces Brandon Vera. Rua is a former light heavyweight champion while Vera has been working his way back to title contention. 

In the co-main event, Ryan Bader faces Lyoto Machida. Both have had big wins in the UFC while also suffering some pretty devastating losses. 

Main Bouts on Fox:

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Brandon Vera
Lyoto Machida vs. Ryan Bader
Joe Lauzon vs. Jamie Varner
Mike Swick vs. DaMarques Johnson

Preliminary Bout on Fuel TV:

Cole Miller vs. Nam Phan
Phil Davis vs. Wagner Prado
Josh Grispi vs. Rani Yahya
Phil De Fries vs. Oli Thompson
Manny Gamburyan vs. Michihiro Omigawa
Ulysses Gomez vs. John Moraga

UFC on Fox 4 start times:

Prelims on Fuel TV: 5 p.m. ET/2 p.m. PT
Main Card on Fox: 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT

Join Bleacher Report for a live blog from cageside.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

MMAFix Staff Picks – UFC on Fox 4

Mauricio Rua (-350) vs. Brandon Vera (+290) Ryan Poli: I get the feeling that Vera will use this big opportunity to get a big upset win. However, I’m not predicting a win based on a.

Mauricio Rua (-350) vs. Brandon Vera (+290)
Ryan Poli: I get the feeling that Vera will use this big opportunity to get a big upset win. However, I’m not predicting a win based on a gut feeling. Shogun is the favorite for a reason and from a logical perspective, he should win the fight. Shogun by decision. Winner: Mauricio Rua

Alan Wells: This line is way too close. Shogun should destroy Vera. If he doesn’t, his days as a top contender are over. Simple as that. Normally, I would never bet odds this strongly in favor of one fighter but I actually think there’s value here considering the real talent disparity. Winner: Mauricio Rua

Emily Kapala: The oddsmakers have it right by picking Rua over Vera. He is the highest value pick, and he is going to come out with the win August 4. The winner of this fight could be a lightweight title contender. Winner: Mauricio Rua

Elise Kapala: The fight between Vera and “Shogun” Rua will be an interesting fight. With Shogun once again fighting for a title contendership spot, I think he will utilize his Muay Thai to defeat Vera. Winner: Mauricio Rua

John Rivera: If this fight had happened six years ago then it might be more deserving of main event status. As it is I’m not sure why Bader/Machida isn’t the headliner. Regardless, this should be an entertaining affair. Unless you’ve been living under a f**king rock then you know who Shogun is. His legendary five round brawl with the great Dan Henderson is widely considered throughout the MMA community to be one of the best fights in the history of the sport and if you youtube Infinite Warriors, you’ll see why this is some seriously epic sh*t.

Right so we all know Rua is a badass amongst badasses. Because of this A LOOOOOOTTT people think Shogun will show up and violently molest Brandon Vera much as Thiago Silva did. This is most likely what we’ll see on fight night, but if we’re lucky we’ll see something else….we’ll see a Brandon Vera that we haven’t seen in a while: the one who started his career knocking out heavyweight’s left and right, the one who went three close rounds with all-time great Randy Couture, in short the one that comes to fight.

Both guys are technical strikers with very solid grappling skills, but here’s the kicker. Shogun can take all the damage Vera can dish out and keep coming forward whereas the opposite is simply not true. Vera, while a great fighter and athlete, simply hasn’t shown the kind of aggression and tenacity needed to put a guy like Mauricio Rua away. I see Shogun taking a first round tko win unless by some miracle old Vera shows up to make it a fight in which case I still have Shogun grinding out a decision victory. Winner: Mauricio Rua

MMAFix Staff Pick: Mauricio Rua (5-0)

Lyoto Machida (-330) vs. Ryan Bader (+270)
Ryan Poli: Bader Proved that he is among the elite when he defeated Rampage Jackson. However Machida already defeated a strong wrestler in Randy Couture, and Machida’s performance against Jon Jones was far better than Bader’s. Machida by KO. Winner: Lyoto Machida

Alan Wells: This fight is the opposite of the first in terms of betting value. I don’t think Bader will pull off the upset but he is undervalued here in my opinion. I’m picking Machida to win but if I’m gambling, I’m putting my money on Bader. Winner: Lyoto Machida

Emily Kapala: Once again, the oddsmakers are right on key by picking Machida. He will definitely shine as a potential title contender in the lightweight division. If you’re going to put money on a fight August 4, this would be the fight to do it on. Winner: Lyoto Machida

Elise Kapala: The fight between Machida and Bader is also expected to be an excellent fight. I think it will be a very close fight, seeing as both fighters have excellent striking ability but also defensive game. I think Machida will come out with the victory, though. Winner: Lyoto Machida

John Rivera: Right off the bat I’m thinking…uhhh Lyoto wins by 2nd round SICKASSKARATEDEVASTATION! All one word and yes it is a technical term.

Ok let’s be serious. Ryan Bader is a bad dude for sure. He is STRONG, to say the least. his wrestling pedigree as an NCAA Div. I All-American wrestler speaks for itself, and any opponent he faces needs to be wary of his knockout power. That said, they call Lyoto Machida the Dragon for a reason….and that reason is because he is a monster who will terrorize you and all of your friends right before he MURDERS EVERYONE!!

Ok, let’s try to be serious this time for real…..Machida possesses vastly superior striking and incredible defensive/counter wrestling skills. He has a black belt in brazilian jiu-jitsu, a highly unorthodox style that remains difficult to emulate in training, and trains with arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the history of the UFC, Anderson “The Spider” Silva. With losses in three of his last four fights, Machida will try to make a statement with a finish. Bader will have to be truly impressive to fight off the second round tko blitz that Machida will be looking for. If he does he will have to use repeated take downs and clinch work against the cage to try to make a case for a decision. I see Machida winning either way. Winner: Lyoto Machida

MMAFix Staff Pick: Lyoto Machida (5-0)

‘UFC on FOX 4: Shogun vs. Vera’ Preview and Predictions


(“You know the deal, guys. Whoever puts on the most impressive performance tonight gets the title shot.” [*unzips*] / Photo courtesy of CombatLifestyle.com. For more photos from this set, click here.)

By Ryan Sarr

Who is going to win the “Jon Jones Sweepstakes?” That is the big question heading into the UFC’s fourth venture onto network television tonight. Dana White was so pissed about the boring, lackluster abomination that was the UFC 149 main card, that he decided to award a light-heavyweight title shot to the man who wins the “most impressively” among the four main and co-main event participants. (Yes, even Brandon Vera)  The only problem with this scenario is that all four men — Shogun, Vera, Machida, and Bader — have each been decisively destroyed by Jon Jones in previous fights.

Nonetheless, this fight card is still very intriguing and offers many reasons to tune in.  First of all: It’s free on Fox. Second, all four main card bouts are likely to be exciting, fast-paced battles. It also marks the return of the very talented Mike Swick to the Octagon, who hasn’t fought in over two years. Finally, we have a chance to see a true Cinderella story play out once again as Jamie Varner gets a chance to take another huge step up in his comeback by fighting on a main card on network television. So, join me as I break down the main card for UFC on Fox 4 and offer my predictions as to who will emerge victorious.

Mike Swick (14-4, 9-3 UFC) vs. DaMarques Johnson (15-10, 4-4 UFC)

DaMarques Johnson said in the fight promo, “There’s a 50% chance I’m gonna win this fight, there’s a 100% chance that somebody’s taking a nap,” and Johnson has the track record to back it up: None of his fights in the UFC have gone the distance. The Jeremy Horn protégé has slick submission skills to go along with his heavy hands. We know Johnson will bring a fast-paced, exciting style into the Octagon, and his opponent Mike Swick will almost certainly do the same.


(“You know the deal, guys. Whoever puts on the most impressive performance tonight gets the title shot.” [*unzips*] / Photo courtesy of CombatLifestyle.com. For more photos from this set, click here.)

By Ryan Sarr

Who is going to win the “Jon Jones Sweepstakes?” That is the big question heading into the UFC’s fourth venture onto network television tonight. Dana White was so pissed about the boring, lackluster abomination that was the UFC 149 main card, that he decided to award a light-heavyweight title shot to the man who wins the “most impressively“ among the four main and co-main event participants. (Yes, even Brandon Vera)  The only problem with this scenario is that all four men — Shogun, Vera, Machida, and Bader — have each been decisively destroyed by Jon Jones in previous fights.

Nonetheless, this fight card is still very intriguing and offers many reasons to tune in.  First of all: It’s free on Fox. Second, all four main card bouts are likely to be exciting, fast-paced battles. It also marks the return of the very talented Mike Swick to the Octagon, who hasn’t fought in over two years. Finally, we have a chance to see a true Cinderella story play out once again as Jamie Varner gets a chance to take another huge step up in his comeback by fighting on a main card on network television. So, join me as I break down the main card for UFC on Fox 4 and offer my predictions as to who will emerge victorious.

Mike Swick (14-4, 9-3 UFC) vs. DaMarques Johnson (15-10, 4-4 UFC)

DaMarques Johnson said in the fight promo, “There’s a 50% chance I’m gonna win this fight, there’s a 100% chance that somebody’s taking a nap,” and Johnson has the track record to back it up: None of his fights in the UFC have gone the distance. The Jeremy Horn protégé has slick submission skills to go along with his heavy hands. We know Johnson will bring a fast-paced, exciting style into the Octagon, and his opponent Mike Swick will almost certainly do the same.

Swick hasn’t fought in over two years due to esophageal spasms, a condition which his doctors told him would never allow him to fight again. Well, he proved them wrong and now his comeback fight will be in front of a national television audience. Swick is a UFC veteran, with over 10 fights in the Octagon, but his last two outings have been losses. Like Johnson, Swick loves to stand and trade, and possesses knockout power in both hands. Look for this fight to stay on the feet, with each man exchanging heavy blows in the pocket. The question is: How much ring rust will Swick have? Johnson hasn’t beat anyone of Swick’s stature, but Johnson has fought six times since Swick last fought.

Prediction:  The chances of this fight making it out of the first round are slim. Johnson will definitely come with the thunder, but Swick will be too much on the feet. Swick wins by counter-punching his way to a first round TKO.

Jamie Varner (20-6-1, 2-1 UFC) vs. Joe Lauzon (21-7, 8-4 UFC)

10 months ago, Jamie Varner had just lost to our favorite gay for pay Ultimate Fighter Dakota Cochrane, and it was looking like he would never fight under the Zuffa banner again. But, after winning two fights in smaller shows, the UFC called in May and gave Varner a short-notice fight against the undefeated Edson Barboza at UFC 146.  Barboza was coming off his Sportscenter-worthy spinning wheel kick KO of Terry Etim, and it seemed Varner was being fed to the beast. Varner had other plans however, and knocked out Barboza in the first round. So, now Varner gets another huge opportunity in Joe Lauzon, who is a consistent contender in the lightweight division.

The jiu-jitsu specialist Lauzon has 21 victories, with 17 coming by way of submission. This does not bode well for Varner, who has never been knocked out, but has proven susceptible to submissions in the past, losing in this manner to Shane Roller, Hermes Franca, and Ben Henderson.  Lauzon is coming off a first round KO loss to Anthony Pettis, and will no doubt be looking to avoid Varner’s heavy hands and drag this fight to the ground. If Lauzon can take Varner down, a choke or armbar will be soon to follow, but if Varner can keep this fight standing, he could pull the upset and put himself “in the mix” in the UFC’s 155lb division.

Prediction: While the Cinderella story of Jamie Varner is enticing, look for that story to have a sour ending Saturday night. Lauzon will not give Varner the chance to knock him out, and Lauzon will win by first-round armbar.

Lyoto Machida (17-3, 9-3 UFC) vs. Ryan Bader (14-2, 7-2 UFC)

Of all the men to fight Jon Jones, Lyoto Machida seemed to have to most success, frustrating Jones in the first round of their fight with his unorthodox striking and exceptional defensive skills. But, that success was short-lived as Jones choked Machida unconscious and dropped his lifeless body on the mat in the second round. Now Machida gets a chance to rematch Jones if he can impressively defeat Ryan Bader. Bader, on the other hand, is riding a two-fight win streak following his shocking loss to Tito Ortiz last summer. In his last fight, Bader defeated perennial contender Rampage Jackson, though Jackson came in overweight and undermotivated.

In this fight with Machida, Bader needs to use his excellent wrestling skills to put Machida on his back where he is more vulnerable to attack, but as many fighters have found out, that can be very difficult to do. Machida’s unorthodox striking and karate skills are difficult to defend standing up, and with Sensei Seagal in your corner, you never know when a front kick might be unleashed.  Bader does have an outside chance of landing a big punch ala Shogun Rua, but the longer the fight stays on the feet, the more it favors the Dragon. The wrinkle in this fight, though, is the fact that both men are vying for that title shot, so we may see Machida be much more aggressive than usual, which could play into Bader’s favor if Machida was to open himself up to counter-strikes. Either way, this should be a very exciting fight between two contrasting styles.

Prediction:  Bader will quickly realize he is unable to take Machida down, and will be looking to end it with big punches. This will leave Machida many openings to counter, which he will not miss. Machida floors Bader with punches and finishes the job with a second round choke.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (20-6, 4-4 UFC) vs. Brandon Vera (12-5, 8-5 UFC)

If you find it quite odd that Brandon Vera is headlining a network television UFC card with a chance for a title shot if he wins, you are not alone. Once considered the future of the UFC heavyweight division, Vera’s career has been consistently mediocre since 2007.  After stunning Frank Mir at UFC 65 in 2006, Vera lost his next two fights, dropped to light heavyweight, and then lost to Keith Jardine. Vera got his chance against Jones two years ago, but Jon Jones broke his face (literally) with a devastating elbow that was tough to even watch. Now after being released and subsequently re-signed by the UFC, Vera gets to face Mauricio Rua, who many consider the number three light-heavyweight in the world.

Shogun, who is coming off his fight of the year loss to Dan Henderson, is itching for another crack at Jon Jones. Shogun claims he wasn’t 100% in the Jones fight, and wants another shot at the champ. But first, he has to deal with Vera. Even though Vera’s record is pretty terrible as of late, he does possess the skills of an elite fighter. Unfortunately, the things Vera does well, like leg kicks and clinch striking, Shogun seems to do a little better. Also, Shogun has proven very difficult to finish when 100%, and his penchant for violence can lead to an early night for his opponents. Look for Shogun to be very aggressive early in this fight, doing all he can to punish Vera with leg kicks and big punches. If Vera can survive the early onslaught, his chances of winning improve significantly, as Shogun’s cardio has been suspect in the past, and you never know how conditioned he will be for a fight. Nonetheless, this should be an exciting stand-up war as both men want that title shot and rematch with Jon Jones.

Prediction: Shogun has proven he’s an elite light-heavyweight, Vera has not. Shogun will simply out-class Vera early, leaving “The Truth” scrambling and searching for answers. Shogun wins by second round TKO, leaving Vera’s face a bloody mess.

Extra prediction: With Machida and Shogun both winning “impressively,” Dana decides to have these two fight to determine who will face Jonny Bones for the title.

UFC on Fox 4: Could the Rua-Vera or Machida-Bader Winner Face Gustafsson Next?

As Shogun Rua, Brandon Vera, Lyoto Machida and Ryan Bader go into battle this Saturday, many fans and members of the media will ponder where exactly the four warriors will go when it’s all over.Depending on who wins most impressively, the Rua versus Ve…

As Shogun Rua, Brandon Vera, Lyoto Machida and Ryan Bader go into battle this Saturday, many fans and members of the media will ponder where exactly the four warriors will go when it’s all over.

Depending on who wins most impressively, the Rua versus Vera winner or the Machida versus Bader winner will earn a No. 1 contender spot to face light heavyweight champion Jon Jones.

But what of the winner who is not chosen? Could there be a constellation prize to earn them the next No. 1 contender position? How about Alexander Gustafsson, the big kid without an elite name.

UFC president Dan White has recently told publications that Gustafsson is in for a “big fight.” Could White have been coy about who the opponent would be because this Saturday will have the answer?

If Jones, the champion, will get the most impressive of the two winners, then it only makes sense that Gustafsson would be tested against the less-impressive winner.

A Jones versus Gustafsson match has been billed as being the last light heavyweight fight that could have some intrigue, but Gustafsson is still too unproven to be put in with a beast such as Jones.

If Gustafsson could pass the test of the winner of either Rua-Vera or Machida-Bader, he most certainly will have convinced a good deal of skeptics that he is ready to battle Jones.

 

For more MMA and other sports news and analysis, follow me on Twitter @justindavidtate.

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