UFC 167 Betting Picks

Welterweight Championship Fight Predictions Georges St-Pierre (c) vs Johny Hendricks I saw the weigh ins and Georges is very pumped up for this fight. It will be interesting to see if Hendricks can connect with GSP’s chin since its been clocked before and the switch has been flipped by Serra and Condit before. Hendricks is [&hellip

Welterweight Championship Fight Predictions

Georges St-Pierre (c) vs Johny Hendricks

I saw the weigh ins and Georges is very pumped up for this fight. It will be interesting to see if Hendricks can connect with GSP’s chin since its been clocked before and the switch has been flipped by Serra and Condit before. Hendricks is more powerful than both of those guys (based on in the cage performace).

Pick: GSP has shown an ability to endure, I want to think that GSP will do enough NOT to get knocked out and win a decision in the end as well.

Rashad Evans vs. Chael Sonnen

I just bumped into Evans at WSOF 6 last month and he was in good spirits and looked ready to go. Evans should be too fast for Sonnen and will land more overall strikes. I don’t think Sonnen will be able to keep Evans down long enough to win rounds vs Evans ability to do the same plus better striking.

Pick: Evans.

Rory MacDonald vs. Robbie Lawler

MacDonald is the Wizard. He looks stoic and ready to fight efficiently every time. Lawler looks nasty at this weight now and his added size from fighting at middleweight might be a problem for Rory. We will see.

Cetainly the conditioning edge will go to MacDonald.

Pick: With Rory a huge favorite here, I think there is value in picking Lawler.

Josh Koscheck vs. Tyron Woodley

Woodley really hasn’t faced that many great guys, but he is great himself. He has steamrolled many fighters and is ability to not get taken down is one of the best.

Pick: Odds are about even here. Koscheck’s jaw has been clicked before and Woodley looks like he is getting stronger every fight. I’m torn here, but I will give edge to Koscheck with the experience.

Tim Elliott vs. Ali Bagautinov

Pass

Preliminary card (Fox Sports 1)

Donald Cerrone vs. Evan Dunham

Such a good fight. I can see Dunham winning by submission, but this fight is probably best bet via going the distance.

Pick: Dunham

Ed Herman vs. Thales Leites

Pick: I like Leites here with his return to the UFC. He is a little bigger and I don’t think Herman brings anything that Leites isn’t capable of handling except conditioning, but I think Leites will be prepared since he’s been out of the UFC and will want the taste of the spotlight again. Remember he contended for the title against Silva?

Pick: Leites

Brian Ebersole vs. Rick Story

Also an amazing fight. If this goes the distance Story is the busier fighter. However, I always ride with Ebersole. His experience and ability to fight smart is uncanny.

Pick: Ebersole

Erik Perez vs. Edwin Figueroa

Pass

Preliminary card (Facebook/YouTube)

Jason High vs. Anthony Lapsley

Will Campuzano vs. Sergio Pettis

The odds are way too high here to take Pettis. With Campuzano fighting on short notice I understand why against the undefeated Pettis.

Pass

Gian Villante vs. Cody Donovan

Pass

UFC Booking Update: Sergio Pettis vs. Vaughan Lee Confirmed for UFC 167, Leites Replaces Natal Against Herman


(Sergio Pettis, shown here with the third Pettis brother nobody ever talks about. / Photo via Sherdog)

UFC officials have confirmed that the promotion’s new undefeated bantamweight acquisition Sergio Pettis will make his Octagon debut at UFC 167: St. Pierre vs. Hendricks (November 16th, Las Vegas) against Vaughan Lee, who you may remember from such blog posts as “Why the hell is Urijah Faber fighting Vaughan Lee?” (Luckily, that wacky matchup was just a rumor.) Lee most recently lost to Raphael Assunção by submission in June, dropping his UFC record to 2-3. But he did once win a Submission of the Night bonus for armbarring Kid Yamamoto at UFC 144. That’s not nothin’.

As for Pettis, he’ll be hunting for his 10th consecutive win overall, and his fourth of 2013. The 20-year-old “Phenom” may have been a terror on the regional circuit, but those first-time Octagon jitters can be tough on anyone. In other UFC 167 news…


(Sergio Pettis, shown here with the third Pettis brother nobody ever talks about. / Photo via Sherdog)

UFC officials have confirmed that the promotion’s new undefeated bantamweight acquisition Sergio Pettis will make his Octagon debut at UFC 167: St. Pierre vs. Hendricks (November 16th, Las Vegas) against Vaughan Lee, who you may remember from such blog posts as “Why the hell is Urijah Faber fighting Vaughan Lee?” (Luckily, that wacky matchup was just a rumor.) Lee most recently lost to Raphael Assunção by submission in June, dropping his UFC record to 2-3. But he did once win a Submission of the Night bonus for armbarring Kid Yamamoto at UFC 144. That’s not nothin’.

As for Pettis, he’ll be hunting for his 10th consecutive win overall, and his fourth of 2013. The 20-year-old “Phenom” may have been a terror on the regional circuit, but those first-time Octagon jitters can be tough on anyone. In other UFC 167 news…

Before he was drafted to play the role of Foreign Bad Guy #1 opposite Tim Kennedy at UFC Fight for the Troops 3,  Rafael Natal was scheduled to take on fellow middleweight Ed Herman on the “St. Pierre vs. Hendricks” prelims. Luckily, the UFC has found a replacement opponent for Herman, who will be staying on the UFC 167 card against veteran grappler Thales Leites.

Herman’s most recent appearance netted him a split-decision win against Trevor Smith at UFC on Fox: Johnson vs. Moraga in July — his first win since February 2012. Leites was also victorious in his last UFC appearance, winning a unanimous decision against Tom Watson in his Octagon return at UFC 163 in August. Leites is on a four-fight win streak overall, including submission wins against Matt Horwich and Tor Troeng

UFC 163: Aldo vs. Korean Zombie — Live Results & Commentary


(Zombies don’t make eye-contact. It’s, like, way too intimate. / Photo via MMAFighting.com)

Tonight, UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo returns to his homeland to take on South Korean crowd-pleaser Chan Sung Jung — a name that has become synonymous with fast-paced brawls and insane finishes. Will Aldo end the night embraced in the sweaty arms of his countrymen, or will the Korean Zombie put a gruesome end to the champ’s 15-fight win streak?

Also on the UFC 163 lineup: Phil Davis has the honor of being the only American on the pay-per-view card as he tries to put his hands on Lyoto Machida, and former UFC middleweight title contender Thales Leites returns from four years in exile in a fight against British banger Tom Watson. Plus, Cezar Ferreira and John Lineker gobble up some fresh meat.

CagePotato liveblogger supreme Anthony Gannon will be firing off round-by-round results from the “Aldo vs. Korean Zombie” main card after the jump, beginning at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT. Refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest, and please drop your own thoughts in the comments section.


(Zombies don’t make eye-contact. It’s, like, way too intimate. / Photo via MMAFighting.com)

Tonight, UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo returns to his homeland to take on South Korean crowd-pleaser Chan Sung Jung — a name that has become synonymous with fast-paced brawls and insane finishes. Will Aldo end the night embraced in the sweaty arms of his countrymen, or will the Korean Zombie put a gruesome end to the champ’s 15-fight win streak?

Also on the UFC 163 lineup: Phil Davis has the honor of being the only American on the pay-per-view card as he tries to put his hands on Lyoto Machida, and former UFC middleweight title contender Thales Leites returns from four years in exile in a fight against British banger Tom Watson. Plus, Cezar Ferreira and John Lineker gobble up some fresh meat.

CagePotato liveblogger supreme Anthony Gannon will be firing off round-by-round results from the “Aldo vs. Korean Zombie” main card after the jump, beginning at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT. Refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest, and please drop your own thoughts in the comments section.

UFC 163 Preliminary Card Results
– Anthony Perosh def. Vinny Magalahes via KO, 0:14 of round 1
– Amanda Nunes def. Sheila Gaff via TKO (elbows), 2:08 of round 1
– Sergio Moraes def. Neil Magny via submission (triangle choke), 3:13 of round 1
– Ian McCall def. Iliarde Santos via unanimous decision (30-27 x 2, 29-28)
– Rani Yahya def. Josh Clopton via unanimous decision (29-28 x 3)
– Francimar Barroso def. Ednaldo Oliveira via unanimous decision (30-27 x 2, 29-28)
– Viscardi Andrade def. Bristol Marunde via TKO, 1:36 of round 1

Greetings, Potato Nation, and welcome to the latest installment of Brazil vs The World. And I’m telling you right now, the Brazilians are kicking the shit out of the world. Since the UFCs glorious return to the land of terrifying ass-kickers, the figures are grim. In fights where a Brazilian fought a foreigner, it’s 33-8 in favor of the home team (not counting UFC 147 seeing as it served as the TUF: Brazil Finale), or about 80%. Now, some of you more cynical bastards have accused the UFC of building mismatched cards to appeal to the fierce nationalism of the Brazilian people. It’s simple logic, really – when Brazilians win their fans go batshit insane. They fall in love with the UFC and become loyal fans with octagon patios like this brilliant psycho.

It’s not an argument without merit. The UFC has made no secret of its uncut hard-on for Brazil. It’s an emerging economy with an expanding middle class that has a few extra ducats to piss away on entertainment. So long as the cards are packed with local talent and they continue to get the better of the world – or as in the case of the Nog/Werdum Fuel event, produce eight freakin’ submission wins – then the sport will continue to grow in Brazil. Certainly nothing wrong with stacking the deck a little.

Okay, now that the divisive hyperbole is out of the way, who’s excited to pay $55 for this one fight card? Anyone? Bueller? Just don’t be judging these fights before they happen, a’ight. Dana White hates that shit, and thinks you’re fucking stupid for it. Never mind that making judgments is how consumers base their decisions on whether or not to purchase products. That’s just an irrelevant detail. If you’re a fight fan, how can you not want to watch Jose Aldo? It matters not that the co-main event is the antithesis of a barn-burner (an ineffective shit-house air freshener, perhaps?), and the rest of the supporting cast is – how do I put this delicately – unknown. But oh, Thales Leites is making his return. So there’s that.

It’s important to realize it’s not about how good the fights turn out to be. This may very well end up being a phenomenal event. But if no one buys the PPV then it doesn’t really matter much. I know the $54 ribeye at The Borgata is heaven on a plate, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to buy it every time I’m there. Because once you account for the bullshit a la carte $16 potato and $23 creamed spinach, your dinner runs north of $100. Maybe I’m in the mood to enrich the casino owners instead, or the independent businesswomen who exercise the ultimate form of supply and demand. Those are the basic choices we make in the world of commerce.

Here we go. The recently retired Brian Stann is filling for Joe Rogan tonight while Joe is off questioning some shit.

John Lineker and Jose Maria Tome

Lineker is a highly touted flyweight prospect. But he has problems making weight. Last night he missed the 126 lb limit by a very substantial three pounds. He also missed weight in his lone UFC loss to Louis Gaudinot, for whatever that’s worth. Lineker opted to pay the 20% fine on his purse rather than desiccate himself in the sauna in a futile attempt to make the weight. Wise choice.

Aside from just a serious record of 33-3, not much is known about Maria. He’s rockin’ an orange Mohawk, and comes in to some bad club music. Let’s see what he’s got.

Round 1: Maria opens with a lot of movement. Lineker goes for an overhand right to start off. Inside leg kick by Maria skims the pills. Lineker is okay. He blasts Maria with a huge overhand right, drops Maria, but he’s up. Maria shoots, kind of a half ass attempt, comes nowhere close. Oh, Marai with a nice spinning backfist, and he’s stumbling, Maria lands another few nice shots. Lineker is wobbly. Maria is letting him off the hook. Lineker kicks to the body, Maria takes him down, moves to half guard. Lineker is up. Now they’re clinched, and Maria knees Lineker in the nuts. The ref stops it, but the tape shows it going to the stomach. Here we go again. Maria throws a spinning back kick, it’s blocked. He shoots on lineker, it’s stuffed. The trade knees in the clinch. Overhand right by Lineker. Maria gets taken down to end the round. 10-9 Maria

Round 2: High kick by Maria, blocked. Lineker with a knee to the body. Maria shoots, misses. They’re up. Linekr lands a big shot that rocks Maria, he’s down and Lineker is pounding away. And it’s over. The ref steps in and calls it. It was a buckled knee, it appears, that dropped Maria, and Lineker swarmed.

Lineker wins via TKO at 1:03 of round 2.

Thales Leites vs Tom Watson is up

Unless you follow the local Brazilian and Swedish MMA circuits you probably haven’t seen Leites in a quite a while. He was cut by the UFC in 2009 following back-to-back losses to Anderson Silva and Alessio Sakara. Much like the horrible lays of your life, it’s impossible to forget a really bad fight, and both of those fights were pretty disgusting. The horribleness of the Silva fight is well documented, but the Sakara fight was pretty awful too. It was so bad actually that the judges gave Sakara a decision that by normal MMA judging standards he shouldn’t have gotten – because, presumably, they blamed Leites for the visual carnage that is seared into our souls like a vicious case of the crabs.

That being said, Leites is 6-1 since then, with four submission wins. And, ya know, the past being the past and all that jazz, the man deserves another shot.

Watson is 1-1 in the UFC, and in his last fight against Stanislav Nedkov, he won both the Fight and Knockout of the Night bonuses to put a cool 100 large in his pocket. And aint shit bad about that.

The only way to scientifically break down this fight: The Mongo factor.

Both of these guys have fought Jesse “Mongo” Taylor, and much like the statistical methodology of having a Wikipedia page, the Mongo factor is infallible. Both fights took place under the MFC banner in 2010, in Alberta, Canada. Watson lost by unanimous decision, Leites won by first round triangle choke. By the power of MMA math that means that Leites should win by flying armbar in the second round as Mongo jerks off in the ballroom to nude photos of Miss Scarlett with a rope around his neck like David Carradine.

See how that works, simple mathematics.

Watson rolls out to The Backstreet Boys wearing a gorilla mask.

Round 1: Leiteds wants to touch, Watson is having none of it. Leites rushes forward with a combo, initiates the clinch. He’s working for Watson’s back, and drags him to the mat. He’s got a hook in, working for the second. He’s got it. Ah shit. Leites looking to lock Watson’s arm down and choke him. Watson defending well. Lot of time left though. Leites has that arm trapped. He’s bashing Watson in the side of the head too. Sucky position for Watson. He’s got his arm free, and they’re battling for wrist control. Nice shots from the back from Leites, good power generated from that position. Watson tries to explode to his feet, aint happening. Leites is glued to his back. Now he’s on top, and Watson escapes, delivers a knee in the clinch. They trade leg kicks. Watson with another. And another. And again. Left hook by Watson, answered by Leites. Head kick by Watson as the round ends. 10-9 Leites

Round 2: Watson opens with a leg kick. Leites punches into the clinch, can’t tie him up. Watson grabs Leites’ neck, and Leites takes him down. He’s in half guard delivering some short shots from the top. Leites is looking for an arm triangle, Watson escapes. Watson gets up, Leites takes him down again. He’s got Watson’s back with hooks in again. Leites is high on Watson’s back, now working for an arm. He’s got it, but Watson is defending well, has Leites stacked up against the cage. Watson is free, and they’re up. Leites with a nice jab, Watson answers with a couple knees. They trade jabs, and Watson’s has more pop on it. They clinch, and Leites with a knee. And another. Watson lands a left hook, Leites responds with a decent combination. Watson lands a knee and an elbow. Close round. 10-9 Leites

Round 3: Leites lands a big left, and Watson’s eye is a bloody mess. Leites clinches, and his back is covered with blood. Leites going for a takedown, not happening. But he’s controlling the fight by pushing Watson up against the cage. Leites has Watson’s back again, looking to take this down. Watson is free, and lands a good elbow. Leites lands a jab, then sticks a takedown. Leites is mounted. Watson rolls to his side, Leites taks his back. Watson stands up, gets dragged back down. Leites with back control again, delivering some punishment to the side of the head. Leites looking for the arm triangle, he’s just got to jump to side control. Watson is a hard dude to choke. Leites can’t get it, but dominates the round. That’s that.

The official decision is in, and it’s Thales Leites by unanimous decision, 30-27 across the board.

Sergio Moraes and Neil Magny are on from the undercard. I aint calling this shit, we already told you what happened.

Cezar Ferreira vs Thiago Santos is next up.

Cezar is the middleweight TUF: Brazil winner. He hasn’t fought in over a year due to injuries, and the only thing I remember about him is that he throws a shitload of kicks.

Santos is a natural welterweight making his UFC debut at middleweight. He sports a 8-1 record with five finishes, but he doesn’t have a Wikipedia page, which means there’s no way in hell he can win this fight. However, Cezar is a Blackzillian, which evens the odds considerably.

And there’s always someone. Santos comes out to the Rocky theme.

Vitor Belfort smacks the hell out of Cezar to fire him up.

Round 1: Cezar opens with a low kick, misses. Cezar lands a good shot, then goes to the body. Santos is hurt, and Cezar gets the guillotine. Wow, very quick and impressive.

It was a huge left that rocked Santos, Cezar saw it and locked on the choke.

Cezar Ferreira gets the sweet submission at only the 0:47 mark of the first round.

Amanda Nunes and Sheila Gaff get some PPV time.

Lyoto Machida and Phil Davis are up.

If Rogan were around for this event, he would surely describe this as an “interesting fight.” That’s kind of what you say when you’re not quite certain how to sell it. You can’t rightly say,” Hmm, Davis has about a 1% chance to win this thing, and oh yeah, there’s like a 98% chance it’s going to be a suck-ass fight.” So, “interesting” it is.

The two pertinent questions: Can Davis take Machida down? And with two promised title shots already yanked out from underneath him, will Lyoto stick to his tried-and-true formula of waiting until the final round to actually get his piss-drinking ass into the fight?

On the first question, it’s doubtful. Machida had ridiculous takedown defense. Sure, Davis is a great wrestler, and even though Machida is a BJJ blackbelt, I believe Davis is the better all-around grappler. But I cannot see him penetrating Machida’s base consistently enough to earn a victory in that manner.

As for the second question, who the hell knows. When Machida’s aggressive, he’s downright nasty. But he’s rarely aggressive. He should take this fight regardless, but to make a compelling case for another shot at Jon Jones he needs to have like another Rashad type win.

Davis rocking his customary hot pink tights, young as hell too.

Machida had the crowd fired up by coming out to a song everyone seems to know. Must be like the Brazilian version of “Sweet Caroline.”

Round 1: Davis kicks to the body to start things off. Tries again, Machida avoids. Davis goes with the low kick, Machida responds with one of his own. Machida drops his hands, perhaps goading Davis into a stand up exchange. Davis checks a leg kick, goes for the Superman punch, misses. Machida with a front kick to the body, skims Davis. Machida with a high kick, Davis blocks. Machida lands a straight left. Front kick to Davis’ body again. Davis kicks to the body. Machida exploded with a nice combination, ends it with a knee. Davis shoots, sticks a takedown. He’s in side control, and if he can do some damage he can steal this round. Machida gets him to half guard, and the round ends with a few shots to the body. He didn’t do enough to win the round. 10-9 Machida

Round 2: They trade front kicks. Machida kicks to the body, Davis blocks. Machida goes high this time, it’s deflected but still looks like it stung. Davis with the head kick, Machida backs away. Superman punch by Davis, lands on Machida’s chest. Davis clinches, Machida shrugs him off. Machida with a hook, Davis misses a wild overhand right. Davis lands an overhand right. Machida kicks the body. Low kick by Machida. Davis shoots, Machida defends. He shoots again, stuffed again. Front kick misses by Davis. Machida with a straight left. Then a nice right, but Davis scores a takedown. A couple knees to the body. Not much damage, but closer round.  10-9 Machida

Round 3: Davis misses a right to starts off the round. Davis with a kick, Machida with a jab. Two Superman punches by Davis, misses badly on both. Machida blocks a front kick. Davis being more aggressive this round. A shot by Davis I shrugged off. Front kick lands by Machida. Knee to the body by Machida, he ends up on top. Davis stands up with Machida on his back, escapes. Good kick by Davis, Machida responds with a big right. Davis is shrugged off yet again. Machida tries for a knee on the separation, misses. Machida lands a straight right, Davis answers with a nice kick to the body. Davis clinches, shoots, can’t stick the takedown. Machida lands a right to the grill, then a low kick. Davis shoots again, misses. Machida didn’t do much, but he did enough. Machida 10-9.

The decision is in, and it’s 29-28 across the board for Phil Davis. Wow.

The fans are not happy. It wasn’t a terrible decision. Shit, Machida just doesn’t do much.

The main event is next, Jose Aldo vs Chan Sung Jung

The Korean Zombie is on a roll. He’s finished his last three opponents, picked up four fight night bonuses in that time, and won himself a legion of fans in the process. But, he’s facing one of the Top 3 nastiest fighters in the world. Jose Aldo is just operating on a different level than anyone else at 145. A perfectly placed shot to the mandible can end anyone’s night, but unfortunately for the Zombie that’s probably not how this will play out. More than likely this will end in a loss and an unimaginable amount of pain in the legs tomorrow morning.

But ya gotta give the Zombie credit for one thing, he sure can talk some shit. His quote from the weigh-ins, “People may think Aldo is the favorite, but I think differently.” Damn, he went there.

Zombie comes out to “Zombie” from the Cranberries. Makes sense.

Some dickhole steals Aldo’s hat on his way to the cage. The champion looks focused and terrifying.

Round 1: Herb Dean is in charge, and the shit is on. Jung throws the first leg kick, misses. Aldo misses a jab. Jung charges forward, misses. Also lands an overhand right. Then a jab to the chest. Jung with a left to the dome. Aldo sticks a jab, misses the following right. Jung with a high kick, too high, goes right over Aldo’s head. Aldo with a leg kick, skims. Aldo with a left hook, finishes with a leg kick. Jung with a low kick of his own. Jung comes up short on a jab. Jung fakes a takedown, comes over the top with a right. Aldo takes Jung down, but he spring right back up in the scramble. Damn, spinning wheel kick from Aldo to end the round. Close round. 10-9 Aldo

Round 2: Jung is stalking Aldo, moving forward. Lands a front kick. Jung charges in, Aldo lands two shots to the chops. The champ misses an uppercut, sticks a jab. Jung hooks, Aldo ducks and lands a couple to the body. Goes to the body again, then a hook to the face. Aldo sticks another stiff jab. Jung with a kick to the thigh, then misses an overhand. Another jab from Aldo. Jung ducks under an overhand right. Another jab by Aldo, stuns Jung. Oh, and jung lands a nice overhand right that knocks the champ back. Aldo shoots and takes Jung down. He’s in side control. Jung gets to half guard, now full guard. The round ends with no damage from the top. 10-9 Aldo

Round 3: Left hook by Aldo. Jung jumps in with a knee, Aldo catches Jung and slams his ass down. Jung trying to wall walk back to his feet, Aldo keeping him in place. Jung with a few shots to the ear, and he’s up. Aldo has him against the cage, looking for another  takedown. Gets it, but Jung is back to his knees, working to get back up. Aldo working really hard for these takedowns. They’re stalled, and Herb stands them up. Oof, Jung with a nice combination. Aldo going for another takedown. Jung defending very well. Jung tries to lock on a choke, can’t get under the chin. Jung with some decent elbows to the temple. Aldo is glued to him here. Herb separates them again. Flying knee again from Jung, misses, they both go down. Not sure how to score that one. I’ll guess 10-9 Aldo

Round 4: Jab from Jung. Aldo answers in kind. Aldo misses a big hook. Jung lands a left, misses a right. Three kicks in a row to the shoulder from Aldo, and it appears that Jung’s shoulder separated. Yuck. Aldo takes him down, gets the finish, and Jung is lying there in agony. His shoulder is fucked.

The replay shows the separation, and it’s pretty nasty. Aldo saw it and commenced to kick the shit out of it. That was gnarly.

The official decision is a TKO at 2:00 of round 4 for Jose Aldo. That’s that. I got to roll. Been holding in a deuce since Leites/Watson. Thanks for chillin’, we’ll be back tomorrow to analyze this shit.

 

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 163: Aldo vs. Korean Zombie’ Edition

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This Saturday night, Zuffa heads to Rio de Janeiro — home of beautiful beaches and even more beautiful beetches (waka waka!) — where a seemingly unstoppable champion plans to defend his featherweight strap against a zombie. Come on, that’s gotta be worth sixty bucks. This may be a PPV light on star power, but we all know what happened the last time a card held in Brazil without much star power turned out.

And with each pay-per-view comes the best damn gambling advice you will find on the Internet (YOU SHUT YOUR WHORE MOUTH), so join us as we break down some of the undercard as well as all of the main card bouts for UFC 163. All odds courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Undercard bouts:

Ian McCall (-380) vs. Iliarde Santos (+315)

In lieu of Demetrious Johnson’s performance last week, -400 for Ian McCall to beat Santos is parlay bound. Santos had trouble getting out of the gate in his UFC debut and will surely put up a stronger performance, but “Uncle Creepy” has fought 6 rounds (and even won a few!) with the champion in the division. There is always a possibility of the hometown judging playing the culprit or Ian having a mental breakdown whilst reflecting on his life as of late, but if McCall loses here, it will almost be worth losing the bet to see what happens next with him. McCall to win.

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This Saturday night, Zuffa heads to Rio de Janeiro — home of beautiful beaches and even more beautiful beetches (waka waka!) – where a seemingly unstoppable champion plans to defend his featherweight strap against a zombie. Come on, that’s gotta be worth sixty bucks. This may be a PPV light on star power, but we all know what happened the last time a card held in Brazil without much star power turned out.

And with each pay-per-view comes the best damn gambling advice you will find on the Internet (YOU SHUT YOUR WHORE MOUTH), so join us as we break down some of the undercard as well as all of the main card bouts for UFC 163. All odds courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Undercard bouts:

Ian McCall (-380) vs. Iliarde Santos (+315)

In lieu of Demetrious Johnson’s performance last week, -400 for Ian McCall to beat Santos is parlay bound. Santos had trouble getting out of the gate in his UFC debut and will surely put up a stronger performance, but “Uncle Creepy” has fought 6 rounds (and even won a few!) with the champion in the division. There is always a possibility of the hometown judging playing the culprit or Ian having a mental breakdown whilst reflecting on his life as of late, but if McCall loses here, it will almost be worth losing the bet to see what happens next with him. McCall to win.

Vinny Magalhaes (-400) vs. Anthony Perosh (+325)

Anthony Perosh comes in as the +300 underdog, partly thanks to his 7 second appearance in his last Octagon performance. The “Hippo” is well rounded, with his underrated ground game allowing him to pick up two UFC wins as the underdog, but nothing short of the BJJ elite can surprise the decorated grappling star in Magalhaes on the mat. Magalhaes looked strong in his return to the Octagon and looking at Anthony’s willingness to engage in grappling, Vinny to win by submission at +180 is also a nice prop bet. Vinny to win on the parlay.

Main Card PPV:

John Lineker (-440) vs Jose Thome (+350)

Having not lost in 5 years, Jose Thome brings his 33-3 record to his Octagon debut against the always exciting -440 favorite John Lineker. The price is too steep for the favorite and laying anything on the dark horse who is north of 30 years old (where have you been with that record?) is a crapshoot at best. Your best bet on this one is a prop: -185 that this fight does not go to decision. The heavy favorite is always looking for the finish and Jose’s 3 losses all coming inside the distance, with only 3 of his 36 fights going to the cards.

Thales Leites (-125) vs. Tom Watson (+105)

Coming off a KOTN and FOTN bonus, Watson enters as the slight underdog against the returning Thales Leites. Before stopping Stanislav Nedkov, Watson showed improved takedown defense by nullifying the Bulgarian’s grappling game. Unlike his fellow BJJ black belt, Leites is not even remotely a threat in the stand up game compared to Nedkov, so it will be interesting to see how Watson handles the relentless grappling-centric attack of Thales. Watson is training with Jackson’s MMA and at TriStar, which may very well be the right recipe to beat the one time (thankfully) title contender at Middleweight. Watson for the upset.

Cezar Ferreira (-425) vs. Thiago Santos (+340)

With only one loss, Santos at +340 to upset the Ferreira is definitely the best long shot payout on the card. Santos has a little bit of everything to offer here, creative striking and strong grappling, whereas Cezar is paying about 20 cents on the dollar for winning TUF Brazil. Santos as long shot underdog +340 or pass.

Lyoto Machida (-370) vs. Phil Davis (+310)

After Gustafsson, the winner of this fight may be considered the next number one contender du jour (short of this guy maybe) at 205lbs. The stand up fight will be Lyoto’s to lose and the grappling advantages Davis may have will only be useful if the Penn State alum can catch Machida in one spot long enough to secure a takedown. The Dragon is next to impossible to take down, next to impossible to hit and almost next to impossible to watch at times. Davis will have to come out strong and try to get this fight to the ground early to avoid looking up at the clock halfway through the third round realizing he needs to finish the fight to win. Machida to win by decision +115 for a prop bet is a solid risk in this 3 rounder.

Jose Aldo (-800) vs. Chan Sung Jung (+550)

-800 for the high rollers is almost worth it here as next to nobody is giving the Korean Zombie a chance to walk away with Aldo’s belt this weekend. This is very much like the odds for Cain Velasquez vs Antonio Silva 2 (in case the first fight left anything to the imagination), with the public dismissing Bigfoot and calling squash match almost unanimously. There is the belief that Jung’s forward fighting style will give Aldo problems, which in retrospect, has been said about many of Aldo’s opponents until the champion connects with his patented leg kicks or “WTF was that?” jab and uppercut combos.

The prop betting on fight duration is interesting, seeing as Jung has no problem being hit. Starting with -114 that fight does not start 3rd round, -169 that fight does not start 4th round and finally -230 Aldo wins inside the distance. Aldo to win (and jump out of the Octagon then into the crowd before Bruce Buffer makes the official announcement).

Parlay 1

-Magalhaes+Machida+Aldo

Parlay 2

-Watson+McCall

Props

-Lineker vs Thome fight does not go the distance
-Magalhaes to win by submission
-Machida to win by decision
-Aldo to win inside the distance
-Aldo/Jung does not start round 3 or 4, your pick

Please share your thoughts on who you like CP nation. Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

UFC 163 Preview: Tom Watson vs. Thales Leites Head-to-Toe Breakdown

With Jose Aldo and “The Korean Zombie” gobbling up most of the UFC 163 column inches, the underrated Tom “Kong” Watson vs. Thales Leites scrap has flown under the radar.
While most no doubt remember Leites for his painfully unev…

With Jose Aldo and “The Korean Zombie” gobbling up most of the UFC 163 column inches, the underrated Tom “Kong” Watson vs. Thales Leites scrap has flown under the radar.

While most no doubt remember Leites for his painfully uneventful fight with Anderson Silva at UFC 97, he’s been gone three years on a spin outside of the UFC and, in Tom Watson, is facing a fighter who will force him to engage.

The Brit is nothing if not exciting inside the cage. By his own admission, leaving a lasting impression on the viewers is his No. 1 priority, with winning coming in a distant second.

That attitude might not secure him the 185-pound strap, but it’ll be music to Dana White’s ears.

Without any further delay, let’s see how this one breaks down.

Begin Slideshow

Thales Leites Returns to the Octagon at UFC 163 Against Tom Watson; Vinny Magalhaes vs. Anthony Perosh Also Added


(Leites sells tickets to the gun show while Marc Ratner continues to stare at Arianny’s tits. / Photo via Sherdog)

You know, there was a time when this website thought that Thales Leites had a legitimate shot at beating Anderson Silva, or could at least give him a good fight. Neither of those things turned out to be accurate, but at the very least, Leites was a top ten middleweight who had strung together five straight UFC wins in 2007-2008, including first-round submissions of Floyd Sword, Ryan Jensen, and Drew McFedries.

Leites’s title challenge against Silva at UFC 97 was both uncompetitive and dull as hell; there was a lot of butt-flopping from Leites, and a lot of weird crap from a clearly disinterested Silva. Leites followed up the unanimous decision loss with a split-decision defeat against Alessio Sakara, and the UFC gave him his walking papers.

Since then, Leites has gone 6-1 competing for promotions like MFC and Superior Challenge, and is riding a three-fight win streak with victories over Tor Troeng, Jeremy Horn, and Matt Horwich. And so, the UFC is giving Leites another chance, three years after his last Octagon appearance, booking him at UFC 163: Aldo vs. Pettis (August 3rd; HSBC Arena, Rio De Janeiro), against former BAMMA champ Tom Watson. Watson is currently 1-1 in the UFC, and is coming off a TKO win over Stanislav Nedkov at UFC on Fuel TV: Barao vs. McDonald.

Can Leites prove his worth the second time around? Do any of you care? In other UFC 163 booking news…


(Leites sells tickets to the gun show while Marc Ratner continues to stare at Arianny’s tits. / Photo via Sherdog)

You know, there was a time when this website thought that Thales Leites had a legitimate shot at beating Anderson Silva, or could at least give him a good fight. Neither of those things turned out to be accurate, but at the very least, Leites was a top ten middleweight who had strung together five straight UFC wins in 2007-2008, including first-round submissions of Floyd Sword, Ryan Jensen, and Drew McFedries.

Leites’s title challenge against Silva at UFC 97 was both uncompetitive and dull as hell; there was a lot of butt-flopping from Leites, and a lot of weird crap from a clearly disinterested Silva. Leites followed up the unanimous decision loss with a split-decision defeat against Alessio Sakara, and the UFC gave him his walking papers.

Since then, Leites has gone 6-1 competing for promotions like MFC and Superior Challenge, and is riding a three-fight win streak with victories over Tor Troeng, Jeremy Horn, and Matt Horwich. And so, the UFC is giving Leites another chance, three years after his last Octagon appearance, booking him at UFC 163: Aldo vs. Pettis (August 3rd; HSBC Arena, Rio De Janeiro), against former BAMMA champ Tom Watson. Watson is currently 1-1 in the UFC, and is coming off a TKO win over Stanislav Nedkov at UFC on Fuel TV: Barao vs. McDonald.

Can Leites prove his worth the second time around? Do any of you care? In other UFC 163 booking news…

Two light-heavyweights in need of a rebound will also be meeting at the 8/3 card. After being out-pointed by Phil Davis at UFC 159, grappling specialist Vinny Magalhaes will return at UFC 164 against Australian fighter Anthony Perosh, who hasn’t competed since his seven-second knockout loss to Ryan Jimmo at UFC 149 last July. In 20 professional fights, the 41-year-old Perosh has never been submitted. We’re not sure if that will matter against Magalhaes, but there you go.