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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC on FX 4 and UFC 147 Edition

Did that title totally blow your freakin minds?! We know it did, but for those of you who still remain on the planet Earth after reading it, prepare yourselves for a double dose of down and dirty gambling advice. Thanks to a pair of back-to-back cards and an injury curse the likes of which we’ve never seen before, this weekend’s UFC on FX 4 and UFC 147 events have just enough interesting matchups between them to help you prosper during the greatest American depression since the last great American depression, so lets do some (betting) lines!

UFC on FX: Maynard vs. Guida
Gray Maynard (-305) vs. Clay Guida (+275)
Spencer Fisher (+260) vs. Sam Stout (-290)
Brian Ebersole (-240) vs. T.J. Waldburger (+200)
Ross Pearson (-180) vs. Cub Swanson (+165)
Hatsu Hioki (-185) vs. Ricardo Lamas (+155)
C.J. Keith (+225) vs. Ramsey Nijem (-285)
Joey Gambino (-115 ) vs. Steven Siler (-115)
Rick Story (-380) vs. Brock Jardine (+290)
Luis Ramos (+145) vs. Matt Brown (-175)
Chris Camozzi (+175) vs. Nick Catone (-245)
Ricardo Funch (+375) vs. Dan Miller (-515)

UFC 147
Rich Frankin (-170) vs. Wanderlei Silva (+150)
Cezar Ferreira (-260) vs. Sergio Moraes (+200)
Rony Mariano Bezerra (-280) vs. Godofredo de Oliveira (+220)
Mike Russow (+400) vs. Fabricio Werdum (-500)
Yuri Alcantara (+220) vs. Hacran Dias (-280)
(all figures courtesy of BestFightOdds)

Thoughts…

The Main Events: Gentlemen, we’re basically looking at the greatest pair of main events that a fan could ever hope to ask for, and anyone who says otherwise doesn’t know what they’re talking about. You literally could not get us any more amped if you had an eight ball of coke, a pair of disease-free escorts, and the keys to FAO Shwarz on Christmas Eve.

The odds for those events, however, leave us a little less than enthused. Given the outcome of their first fight, combined with the fact that they are basically fighting at the same catchweight as before, it makes sense to see Franklin as a slight favorite. If either man catches the other, there’s a chance that they can finish them, but while Franklin’s chin may not be what it used to, the same goes quadruple over for Wandy. “Ace” was simply dwarfed by Forrest Griffin in his loss at UFC 126, but will have a slight reach and size advantage over “The Axe Murderer” here, so unless Wandy can manage to catch him with something early, look for Franklin to control the distance and get in and out before landing a 1-2 combo that puts Wandy’s lights out late in the second. Whether or not Franklin decides to do so with a broken arm will be up to him.

As for the lightweights, Guida looks pretty good +275, but is facing a hell of a test in Maynard. “The Bully” is both a much more powerful striker and a stronger wrestler, which doesn’t bode well for Guida’s smother heavy offense. But where Guida does hold an edge is in his cardio, which is best described as “Mario with unlimited star power.” If Guida stands any chance of winning this, it will be by dragging Maynard into the latter rounds of this five round affair, as Maynard has shown the tendency to slow as things go on, and somehow grind out a decision over him. We don’t see it happening either.

The Good Dogs: If you read this and Mike Russow’s name immediately popped into your mind, we’d ask you to sit back in your chair, take a moment to assess your life, and then have the nearest person hit you in the face really fuckin’ hard. We don’t care how far back his win streak dates (it’s 2007) or how much punishment he can absorb (lots), if the same Fabricio Werdum that mangled Roy Nelson shows up on Saturday, Russow best pray “Vai Cavalo” pisses dirty afterward, because that is the only way he is walking out of this with any sense of victory. Russow ain’t gonna be able to take Werdum down, he damn sure ain’t gonna submit him, and if he somehow manages to knock Fabricio out, I will allow one of my biggest haters to come to my home and punch me in the stomach on camera. Afterward, I will treat them to a classy seafood dinner (I’m looking at you, Carmen.)

The two best dogs are undoubtedly Ricardo Lamas and T.J. Waldburger. Although Hatsu Hioki looked levels above his UFC debut in his most recent win over Bart Palaszewski, Lamas has looked as good as any featherweight since coming to the UFC, crushing Matt Grice before choking out Cub Swanson. Waldburger, on the other hand, has shown an incredible ability to snatch a submission when the opportunity presents itself. Even though he has looked much more well rounded as of late, Ebersole has shown a weakness in the past for submissions, so a small side bet on either fighter could be worth your time. We don’t know much about the TUF Brazil finalists, being that we could barely keep up with the American version of the show this season, but we do know that the one middleweight finalist remaining, Cezar Ferreira, will be fighting a semifinalist coming in with less than week’s notice in Sergio Moraes, so he’ll likely be walking away with the glass plaque.

The Solid Picks: Say what you want about how his run on TUF 14 ended, but Steve Siler looked absolutely brilliant against Cole Miller at UFC on FX 2, battering the fellow TUF veteran and controlling the fight en route to a UD win. He’s listed as a pick ‘em against the untested and undefeated prospect Joey Gambino, but should be able to handle him. How Matt Brown is only listed as a slight favorite over a guy who was absolutely steamrolled by Erick Silva in his UFC debut is beyond us, but might be due to the fact that well, Silva has dominated all of his opponents thus far. In either case, Brown all the way.

The Trilogy Match: Considering both Spencer Fisher and Sam Stout’s inconsistency problems as of late, perhaps the odds between the two should be a bit closer. Plus, “The King” could be looking at his last fight in the octagon, so you gotta imagine he’s not going to want to leave this one in the hands of the judges. But Fisher has looked incredibly lackluster as of late, and when comparing lackluster to Stout’s simple mediocrity, we’ll take mediocrity every time. Stout by decision.

Official CagePotato parlay: Maynard + Stout + Pearson

Suggested wager for a $50 stake
$25 on the parlay
$10 on a Bezzera + Dias + Franklin parlay
$10 on Lamas
$5 on Wandy for nostalgia’s sake

–J. Jones

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs. Silva’ Edition

After what has been a long six weeks, a UFC event is finally on the horizon, Potato Nation. And thank Allah, because we were starting to get desperate. Like a Jencum addict without a balloon desperate. In either case, tomorrow night’s UFC on FUEL event provides the perfect opportunity for us to regret ever becoming gambling addicts in the first place, so let’s skip the bullshit and get right to it. Check out the betting lines, courtesy of BestFightOdds, and join us after the jump for our advice on where to place your hard-earned cash. .

Main Card
Alexander Gustafsson (-220) vs. Thiago Silva (+180)
Brian Stann (-400) vs. Alessio Sakara (+325)
Paulo Thiago (-145) vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (+125)
Dennis Siver (+150) vs. Diego Nunes (-170)
DaMarques Johnson (+140) vs. John Maguire (-160)
Brad Pickett (-230) vs. Damacio Page (+190)

Preliminary Card (Facebook)
James Head (+200) vs. Papy Abedi (-240)
Tom DeBlass (-200) vs. Cyrille Diabate (+170)
Magnus Cedenblad (+225) vs. Francis Carmont (-265)
Yoislandy Izquierdo (+190) vs. Reza Madadi (-230)
Besam Yousef (+250) vs. Simeon Thoresen (-300)
Jason Young (-185) vs. Eric Wisely (+160)

Here we go…

The Main Event: Given all the praise Gustafsson has been receiving as of late, combined with the fact that Thiago has been out of action for over a year now, the spread is a bit closer than we would have imagined. It might be due to Gustafsson’s recent list of victims, which includes the now retired Matt Hamill and the 41-year old Vladimir Matyushenko, or it could be attributed to the fact that we’ve yet to see Gustafsson’s chin really tested. Given Silva’s well documented power, he’s not a terrible choice if you’re looking to go balls out, but we’re going to stick with “The Mauler” here. He’s undoubtedly quicker than Silva and a smarter fighter to boot. He should have this, more than likely by way of second round GnP TKO.

The Good Dogs: At first glance, Siver looks pretty good as a slight dog. He’s coming off a tough loss to Donald Cerrone, however, prior to that he put together an impressive four fight win streak over good to mid-range competition. But when you take into account that he’s making his featherweight debut, and took two tries to make weight, he could be in for a long night against Nunes, who will likely hold the speed advantage over the German. It’s a tough call, but should be a great fight no matter which way it goes. Just for the heck of it, we’ll place a small bet on Siver, because the man has looked Goddamn brilliant in most of his victories.

And speaking of great fights, look no further than the Paulo Thiago/Siyar Bahadurzada scrap, which has FOTN written all over it. Thiago has been struggling as of late, recently rebounding from a two fight losing streak by decisioning David Mitchell back at UFC 134, but is one tough SOB in victory and defeat. Bahadurzada, on the other hand, has been on a killing spree over the past three years, scoring five wins by way of (T)KO in his current six fight win streak. The fact that he’s making his UFC debut does not tilt the scales in his favor, nor does the fact that Thiago has never been finished before, but like we said, it all comes down to how much you’re willing to lose. If that number is relatively high, a side bet on Bahadurzada is more than justifiable. Just keep him out of your parlay.

Looking over the rest of the card, one name that pops out is Damarques Johnson, who is coming off an impressive KO victory over a less than impressive opponent in Clay Harvison. We’ve only seen Maguire fight once in the UFC, on the other hand, and though he demonstrated a great grappling base when he decisioned Justin Edwards at UFC 138, he has yet to face anyone with as much experience as Johnson. If “Darkness” can keep it standing, look for him to end this one early. The fact that Cyrille Diabate is listed as a significant underdog to an injury replacement opponent on less than a week’s notice in Tom DeBlass should tell you the direction that one’s going to go. Steer clear.

The Sure Thing: Brad Pickett. Damacio Page hasn’t fought since his rematch with Brian Bowles at UFC Live 3 in which he was choked out at the exact same time he was choked out in their first meeting. He’s got some decent power, but is simply too one dimensional to handle a seasoned veteran like Pickett, whose only losses in the past five years have come to top contenders in Scott Jorgensen and Renan Pegado.

Prelim Steal: Reza Madadi, who more than lives up to his nickname.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Gustafsson + Stann + Pickett + Carmont + Madadi

Suggested wager for a $50 stake
-$20 on the parlay
-$5 on Silva
-$5 on Siver
-$10 on Bahadurzada
-$10 on Johnson

-J. Jones

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 144 Edition

(In the main event, actor Ryan Reynolds defends his belt against a 100% Asian version of Ben Henderson. Plus, Rampage Jackson faces off against a prime Wes Sims. The referee for this evening will be Dan Miragliotta.)

The UFC’s return to Japan this weekend features plenty of attractive opportunities to earn money without working for it. So where do the edges lie? How much better will the UFC’s Japanese stars look on their home turf? And should you really be betting money with tax season coming up? (Just kidding, that one was a trick question.) Complete UFC 144: Edgar vs. Henderson odds are below, via BestFightOdds, followed by our occasionally-helpful betting advice. Check it out, and be sure to come back to CagePotato Saturday night for our liveblog of the fights, starting with the FX prelims broadcast at 8 p.m. ET.

MAIN CARD
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Ben Henderson (+115)
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-237) vs. Ryan Bader (+220)
Cheick Kongo (-270) vs. Mark Hunt (+270)
Jake Shields (-300) vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (+269)
Yushin Okami (-331) vs. Tim Boetsch (+300)
Hatsu Hioki (-167) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+155)
Anthony Pettis (-220) vs. Joe Lauzon (+220)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX)
Takanori Gomi (-200) vs. Eiji Mitsuoka (+175)
Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto (-288) vs. Vaughan Lee (+275)
Riki Fukuda (-300) vs. Steve Cantwell (+258)
Takeya Mizugaki (-200) vs. Chris Cariaso (+172)

PRELIMINARY BOUT (Facebook)
Tiequan Zhang (-250) vs. Issei Tamura (+250)

The Main Event: At this point, we shouldn’t have to tell you not to bet against Frankie Edgar when a belt is on the line. The question is, do you put money on him at these odds, or awkwardly back out of the room? I have faith in Edgar’s tenacity, but Henderson has looked so outstanding in his 3-0 UFC stint that at the very least, it’ll be a dogfight decided on the slimmest of margins. I’m not leaving my money in the hands of the judges, and the smartest bet here is no bet at all.

The Co-Main Event: You have to understand how much this fight means to Quinton Jackson. His future is on the line, following his failed title challenge against Jon Jones last September. He’ll be fighting in front of his family, and the Japanese fans that made him a star in the first place. In short, motivation will not be an issue. Meanwhile, Ryan Bader will be stepping into Rampage’s world on Saturday night, and the enormity of the fight and the Saitama Super Arena crowd might be overwhelming. I think this is a favorable matchup for Rampage, as long as he can dodge Bader’s power-punches and stuff most of his takedowns. A modest bet on the favorite makes sense.

The Good ‘Dogs: Didn’t we learn our lesson when Joe Lauzon was marked as a 4-1 underdog against Melvin Guillard? Never sleep on J-Lau. Once again, the oddsmakers have set Joe up as the underdog, even though Pettis hasn’t quite lived up to his hype since coming over to the UFC. As soon as the fight hits the mat, the odds shift dramatically in Lauzon’s favor. I’m also leaning towards Bart Palaszewski over Hatsu Hioki — simply based on their Octagon debuts at UFC 137, in which Bart destroyed Tyson Griffin and Hioki barely got past George Roop. I’d also point out that Kid Yamamoto is a strong favorite only because he’s got home-field advantage; it’s certainly not based on his performance in the UFC.

The Reader-Submitted Parlay: “Shields, Kongo, Edgar pays out 108 on a 50 dollar bet. Simple, easy and a lock.” (Aaron B.)
We say: Shields and Kongo, sure. But again, I’m staying away from wagering on the main event. So how ’bout…

Official CagePotato Parlay: Kongo + Shields + Okami + Zhang. $10 gets you a $17.38 profit. I know, that barely covers bus fare, but you’ll want to play it safe if you’re chasing underdogs with the rest of your money.

Suggested wager for a $50 stake
– $20 on Jackson
– $10 on Lauzon
– $10 on Palaszewski
– $10 on the parlay

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 136 Edition

(Stock-trader vs. Wall Street protester — who ya got? Photo via MMA Mania)

Want to make some real money this weekend? Then come over to my place on Saturday afternoon and be prepared to clean some toilets. Want to make some hypothetical, for-entertainment-purposes-only money this weekend? Then check out the latest UFC 136 betting lines (via BestFightOdds) and read our gambling advice after the jump.

PPV Main Card
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Gray Maynard (+120)
Jose Aldo (-320) vs. Kenny Florian (+301)
Chael Sonnen (-255) vs. Brian Stann (+227)
Nam Phan (-210) vs. Leonard Garcia (+208)
Melvin Guillard (-312) vs. Joe Lauzon (+310)

Spike TV Prelims
Demian Maia (-275) vs. Jorge Santiago (+245)
Anthony Pettis (-277) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+250)

Facebook Prelims
Joey Beltran (+190) vs. Stipe Miocic (-210)
Tiequan Zhang (-120) vs. Darren Elkins (+115)
Aaron Simpson (-313) vs. Eric Schafer (+300)
Steve Cantwell (-135) vs. Mike Massenzio (+130)

We’ll begin…at the beginning:

(Stock-trader vs. Wall Street protester — who ya got? Photo via MMA Mania)

Spike TV Prelims
Demian Maia (-275) vs. Jorge Santiago (+245)
Anthony Pettis (-277) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+250)

Facebook Prelims
Joey Beltran (+190) vs. Stipe Miocic (-210)
Tiequan Zhang (-120) vs. Darren Elkins (+115)
Aaron Simpson (-313) vs. Eric Schafer (+300)
Steve Cantwell (-135) vs. Mike Massenzio (+130)

We’ll begin…at the beginning:

The Main Event: It’s a line that should really be dead even. But if somebody’s going to be a favorite here, should it really be Frankie Edgar? After all, he couldn’t beat Gray Maynard in either of their two previous meetings. As a slight underdog, Maynard is worth a small investment.

The Other Good ‘Dogs: A lot of them look good, actually. Chael Sonnen is coming off 14 months of controversy and inactivity, so his -255 feels a little inflated, especially against someone as focused and dangerous as Brian Stann. We all know that Leonard Garcia is bulletproof with judges, so if he can swing and grunt his way to the last bell — and not get finished by Phan — he could always end up stealing another one and doubling your money. And if Demian Maia insists on pretending he’s a striker, he’s asking to get laid out by Jorge Santiago.

The Smart Straight-Bet: Blowouts are the name of the game this weekend, with eight of the 11 matchups sitting at 2-to-1 odds or greater. You won’t get rich betting on the stiff favorites, so take a look at Tiequan Zhang at a modest -120 over Darren Elkins. Both guys are just 1-0 at featherweight, but Zhang’s aggressive grappling attack will give the American a heap of problems.

Stay Away From: Joe Lauzon. Yeah, yeah, everybody loves J-Lau, and his skill set is the perfect one to give Guillard trouble. At +310, why not put money on the grappler’s chance, right? Answer: Because Melvin is far too powerful, and he’s a little savvier about avoiding submissions these days. Guillard’s got this one, probably by KO. The same warning applies for Kenny Florian — tripling your cash on the seasoned challenger might be seductive, but you’ll likely be pissing that money away.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Aldo + Guillard + Pettis + Zhang. $20 returns a $57.18 profit. Not risky enough? Okay, $1,000 returns a $2,858 profit. Now we’re talkin’.

Jared vs. Ben — ‘UFC 135: Jones vs. Rampage’ Edition

(Simon Cowell said they sucked. L.A. Reid said they sucked. Nicole Scherzinger said they sucked. Paula Abdul said they should keep practicing and never give up their dreams. / Props: jessektabor2)

UFC 135 goes down tomorrow night in Denver, and as always, it’s incredibly important that you hear our opinions about it. Fresh off his controversial split-decision victory over Seth Falvo, CagePotato staff writer Jared Jones returns for another head-to-head column against founding editor Ben Goldstein. Can Rampage pull off an upset? Is Matt Hughes on his way to retirement? Whose new screen-name will be more humiliating? Read on and get yourself educated…

Is there a part of you that wants to see Rampage get his belt back? How likely is that to happen?

JJ: There will always be a small part of me that wants to see Page with a belt again, if only so I never have to watch that same clip of Rampage exclaiming just how much he wants it back in every pre-fight commercial he’s been in since losing it. On the other hand, I fear for the lives of Southern California if he does win the belt and then loses it again.

As far as the likelihood of Page being the champ again, I’d say it’s better than those bookies would have you believe, but not much. Let’s face it, Rampage earned this title shot with a razor thin decision over Lyoto Machida and an unimpressive decision over a now retired Matt Hamill. Yes, he seems incredibly focused and in shape and yes, Bones’ chin has yet to be tested, but Jones is simply too quick, diverse, and smart to get caught by a straight boxer like Rampage.

BG: First off, no, I don’t want to see Rampage get his belt back. Not even a little. Dude gives me a headache sometimes. Like Nick Diaz, he’s a paranoid weirdo with a persecution complex — everybody’s cocky, everybody’s fake. Look, if you’re one of the hordes of eCritics that have emerged since Jones beat up Shogun, I’m sure you have your reasons. But to me, Jon Jones represents the latest step in MMA’s evolution, and it would feel like a regression if he were unseated by a guy who pretty much just throws hands these days.

The odds on this fight are so inflated because as loud as Rampage’s supporters can be sometimes, nobody’s actually betting money on him. Why would they? Jones has an 11.5-inch reach advantage, he’s far more athletic, and he’s unpredictable. Bones might beat up Rampage standing just to prove a point. After Saturday, we can stop calling Jones the “future of MMA.” He’ll officially be the present — a defending champion. Now what will that make Rampage?

(Simon Cowell said they sucked. L.A. Reid said they sucked. Nicole Scherzinger said they sucked. Paula Abdul said they should keep practicing and never give up their dreams. / Props: jessektabor2)

Is there a part of you that wants to see Rampage get his belt back? How likely is that to happen?

Josh Koscheck is going to kick Matt Hughes’s ass, right? I mean, that’s not really a question, so…how do you feel about the fact that Josh Koscheck is going to kick Matt Hughes’s ass?

BG: I mean, I don’t feel sad about it if that’s what you’re asking. Between his two welterweight title reigns and induction into the UFC Hall of Fame, Hughes has accomplished all there is to accomplish in this sport. I don’t think another championship belt is in his future, and I don’t really need to see him spend a couple more years knocking around against other contenders. His wife is ready for him to come home. Come home, Matt.

As for tomorrow’s fight, Koscheck has the striking advantage and Hughes won’t be able to put him on his back with any consistency. Kos by late TKO, followed by an emotional in-cage retirement from Hughes, as the crowd solemnly sings “A Country Boy Can Survive” in unison.

JJ: Ben, you ignorant slut. Weren’t we all saying the same thing about Ricardo Almeida just a little while ago? Matt Hughes may be coming off one of the most embarrassing (not to mention fastest) losses of his career, but this ain’t gunna be no walk in the park for Fraggle Rock. Koscheck’s striking has been overrated praised ever since his brutal finish of Yoshiyuki Yoshida, but was all but useless against GSP. Is Hughes as good on the feet as GSP? Hell no, but his wrestling is better than Koschecks, and if, no, WHEN he eeks out a boring decision over Koscheck, I’ll be dancing my cares away with all that extra bread.

Does the loser of Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi deserve to keep their spot in the UFC?

JJ: If this was a just world, I would say no. But Michael Bay still finds work, so it clearly isn’t, and as long as these guys WAR!!! then who the hell knows what’s going to happen. Diaz has only won three of his past eight fights, his wrestling sucks, and he isn’t anywhere near anyone’s top 10, or 20 for that matter. If Gomi loses, it’ll probably be by submission, and as much as it pains me to see him off, he would need a few wins elsewhere and an improved ground game if he wants back in the UFC. But I am really hoping he is able to turn Diaz’s lights out, if only to know that is possible for Christ’s sake.

BG: I agree that the loser should have to get a couple tune-up wins outside of the UFC, but I’ll put it like this — Gomi’s job is safe and Nate’s isn’t. Even if Gomi gets boxed up and gogo’d in the first round, the UFC will still keep him around for their upcoming Japan show, guaranteed. As for Diaz? He got bounced out of the lightweight division, then bounced out of the welterweight division, and now he’s back at lightweight. Another bad loss, and it would be clear that there’s really no place for him. Plus, don’t you think Dana wants to stick it to the Diaz family after that shit Nick pulled? King Pinkberry never forgets.

Pop-quiz, hot shot: You have $100. Using the current fight odds for UFC 135, you have to use that Benjamin to turn a profit, or the bus will explode. What do you do? WHAT DO YOU DO?

JJ: First, hand me that old bucket filled with bum sperm!! Seriously though, I would say the easiest way would be to bet it all on Page or Hughes, who are the most attractive underdogs, but I’m a man of variety. Despite getting swarmbashed (new term, called it) by a fever ridden Kyle Kingsbury recently, Ricardo Romero looks decent at +140 against the submission susceptible James Te Huna, and if “Big” Ben Rothwell decides to trade strikes with Hunt, then it could be an early night for him…

Screw it, I’m gunna go ahead and drop half of that C-note on a Boetsch-Ferguson-Romero parlay and the other half on a Hughes-Page-Rothwell parlay. Let’s just hope my bookie is more forgiving than last time.

BG: Wow, Hughes and Jackson in the same parlay? How much is Bodog paying you to write this garbage? Learn from my mistakes, Jared — doubling up on parlays is the quickest way to heartbreak. During my years of giving terrible gambling advice, I think I’ve matured enough to learn a valuable lesson: There are some events where you simply can’t make a huge profit, so don’t even try. And let’s face it, these UFC 135 odds are a total nightmare, filled with blowouts where you can’t justify putting money on the favorite or the underdog. But if I have to, I’ll put $30 on Jon Jones, $30 on Travis Browne, $30 on Tony Ferguson, and $10 on Gomi for the upset. According to BetUS, that would give me a potential profit of $42.02. Yuck. Moving on…

Screen-name bet time: Make one specific prediction for a fight at UFC 135. The person who makes the more accurate prediction gets to change the other person’s commenter name to something embarrassing for a week.

JJ: Nate Diaz will give the old “Stockton Heybuddy” about a minute before finishing Takanori Gomi with a guillotine. Is that too obvious? Either way, enjoy being Bisping’sgaysecret for a week.

BG: Jon Jones TKO’s Quinton Jackson via ground-and-pound (elbows), midway through round 2. Enjoy it, AmberFromTeenMom.

UFC 135 Gambling Alert: Jon Jones Is a 5-1 Favorite Over Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson

(Deal with it. Photo via @jonnybones)

Want to make sure cash this Saturday betting on UFC 135? One word of advice — you won’t get rich betting on Jon Jones. According to the latest gambling lines, Jones is a 5-1 favorite or greater against Quinton Jackson on all the major betting websites. BetUS and Sportsbook.ag have him at 6-1, and Bodog is crazy enough to set the line at an alarming 7-1.

When the odds were first released four months ago, Jones was around a 3-1 favorite, but the vast majority of wagers have poured in on the young light-heavyweight champion since then, inflating the line astronomically. It’s a classic economic bubble — unsteady, unprofitable, and worth staying away from. The good news is, if you think Rampage has a chance to get his belt back, now’s your time to jump; a $100 bet would return a profit of $350-$450, depending on where you lay your money.

To be honest, every single fight on UFC 135’s main card is a blowout, in terms of gambling lines. The closest match is Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi, and even there, Diaz is more than a 2-1 favorite — which might make Gomi the smartest ‘dog wager on the card. Check out the lines after the jump and let us know what you think.

(Deal with it. Photo via @jonnybones)

To be honest, every single fight on UFC 135′s main card is a blowout, in terms of gambling lines. The closest match is Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi, and even there, Diaz is more than a 2-1 favorite — which might make Gomi the smartest ‘dog wager on the card. Check out the lines after the jump and let us know what you think.

Main Card
Jon Jones (-500) vs. Quinton Jackson (+450)
Nate Diaz (-234) vs. Takanori Gomi (+220)
Travis Browne (-340) vs. Rob Broughton (+310)
Josh Koscheck (-450) vs. Matt Hughes (+400)
Ben Rothwell (-300) vs. Mark Hunt (+286)

Preliminary Card
James Te Huna (-150) vs. Ricardo Romero (+142)
Tony Ferguson (-300) vs. Aaron Riley (+283)
Tim Boetsch (-150) vs. Nick Ring (+147)
Eddie Yagin (-105) vs. Junior Assuncao (even)
Takeya Mizugaki (-190) vs. Cole Escovedo (+185)