Tag: UFC odds

UFC 149 Faber vs. Barao: Pre-Fight Analysis

Urijah Faber vs. Renan Pagado This headlining fight for UFC 149 was originally supposed to be a featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Eric Koch but after an injury to Aldo, the UFC decided.

Urijah Faber vs. Renan Pagado

This headlining fight for UFC 149 was originally supposed to be a featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Eric Koch but after an injury to Aldo, the UFC decided to manufacture a replacement title fight out of nothing by creating an interim bantamweight belt to be held while Dominic Cruz is sidelined. After an ill-conceived attempt to spark a buzz over who Urijah Faber would face for the interim title, the UFC announced that Renan Pagado would be the opponent as expected.

Faber is a known commodity. His looks and personality combined with his early dominance of the featherweight division have made him one of the more marketable stars in MMA and he deserves a huge portion of the credit for pushing the growth of the lighter weight classes. Not only has he aided that growth through his performance in and out of the cage but his Team Alpha Male gym has become the best gym on the world for small former wrestlers looking to make the transition to MMA. Faber has solid wrestling and an impressive arsenal of submissions to compliment that wrestling. At the height of his career, he earned his victories by taking his opponents down and finishing either via submission or occasionally ground and pound. Unfortunately for him, he seems to have already passed his peak at age thirty three and has struggled in recent years with hand injuries early in fights. He has not been able to deal with either Dominick Cruz or Jose Aldo losing by decisions in each of his last two title fights. In Pagado, he faces a fighter who is often compared to Aldo. If he wants to earn the victory, he will have to show the unpredictable yet technical game that he brought the cage in his prime. He will need to get Pagado off balance and bring the fight to the ground. From there, he will need to find a way to maintain control. A finish seems unlikely but if he can control Pagado, he could scramble his way to a victory.

Renan Pagado is the exciting up and comer in the bantamweight division. He is widely considered to be the biggest threat to Dominick Cruz and some would even consider him the favorite in that fight. But first, he’ll have to deal with Faber. Pagado lost the first fight of his career and has not lost since then compiling a twenty eight fight unbeaten streak and a seventeen fight win streak. His game seems to have no significant holes. He is a dangerous striker with a diverse arsenal of kicks and punches. His takedown defense in excellent but he isn’t afraid to go the ground because his jiu-jitsu is some of the best in the division. In this fight, he will likely have a slight advantage everywhere the fight goes except maybe in the scrambles and the transitions. He will probably settle in to a strategy of trying to defend the takedown to fight Faber on the feet the same way Cruz and Aldo have done in the past. If he does that, he should have a clear advantage and be able to earn the decision. Faber is incredibly durable so if Pagado can somehow earn the finish, that would be a serious statement.

The bookmakers have Pagado as a solid favorite at -190 with Faber at +165. Keeping it that close shows respect for the former champion and a certain amount of caution as Pagado has yet to face competition on Faber’s level. But in reality, that line could shift further in favor of Pagado and no one would argue. The most likely script for this fight is that Pagado will keep the fight on the feet and strike his way to victory. But if Faber can turn this into a scramble fest and keep Pagado off balance, he could pull off the upset and earn the right to face Cruz for a third time.

Hector Lombard vs. Tim Boetsch

In the only fight to benefit positively from the injuries that infected UFC 149, Hector Lombard replaces Michael Bisping to face Tim Boetsch in a matchup of top middleweights. The winner of this fight is likely to jump to the front of the line along with Chris Weidman as the top contenders to challenge Anderson Silva for the title.

Since dropping to middleweight, Boetsch has looked great earning consecutive victories over Kendall Grove, Nick Ring and former title challenger Yushin Okami. The last victory in particular elevated his status in the division and a win over the highly regarded Lombard would put him in the foreground of the title picture. Boetsch has shown a well rounded ugly game that lives up to his nickname as the “Barbarian.” He has finishing power in both hands and his boxing is deceptively technical. He mixes wrestling with his boxing and has shown the ability to bring fighters to the mat and control position. Once on the ground, his ground and pound is some of the best in the division and he is a constant threat to end the fight. In this fight, he will likely want to avoid engaging with Lombard on the feet. He will need to use his boxing to set up a takedown and control Lombard on the ground. If he can do that, he will ground and pound his way to a decision victory. But if he can’t and is forced to stand with Lombard, he could be in serious trouble.

Lombard comes to UFC aboard one of the louder hype trains in recent memory. He has destroyed his competition in lesser organizations compiling a twenty five fight unbeaten streak and twenty fight win streak. Most recently, he has dominated fighters like Trevor Prangley, Jesse Taylor and Faleniko Vitale in Bellator. He has devastating power in his hands and finished six of his seven opponents in Bellator. His strategy will be simple. He will look to keep the fight standing and box with Boetsch. We should get an idea quickly as to how Lombard stacks up against UFC competition. This will be by far the biggest test of his career and we should know early in the fight how he will respond. We’ve seen a myriad of fighters move to the UFC from smaller organizations and immediately have the weaknesses in their games exposed. That is a real possibility in this fight. But if Lombard comes in and earns a victory, he will establish himself as a real contender at middleweight and will have to be included in the title discussion. And if he earns an impressive victory, the UFC will have a tough decision as to who deserves the next shot at Anderson Silva.

The line on this fight currently has Lombard as a huge favorite at -380 with Boetsch at +315. Obviously, the bookmakers are impressed with Lombard’s performance against lesser competition and expect him to bring that level of explosiveness to his UFC debut. Boetsch is in trouble every second that this fight stays on the feet and no one will be surprised if Lombard lands a huge combination to end his night. But if Boetsch can wrestle Lombard to the mat and keep him there for a few minutes at a time, he could steal this fight.

UFC on Fuel TV 4 – MMAFix Staff Picks

Most of the staff is still recovering from UFC 148 so for UFC on Fuel TV 4, only Ryan and I will bringing you picks. But after his 6-0 performance on Saturday, who else’s picks.

Most of the staff is still recovering from UFC 148 so for UFC on Fuel TV 4, only Ryan and I will bringing you picks. But after his 6-0 performance on Saturday, who else’s picks do you really need?


Chris Weidman (-145) vs. Mark Munoz (+115)
Ryan: No clue why Weidman is the favorite to win. Munoz has faced higher level opponents and he looked more impressive than Weidman when you compare both their fights against Demian Maia. Munoz will shrug off Weidman’s submission attempts and control him on the ground. Munoz by TKO via GNP. Winner: Munoz

Alan: I’m with Ryan here. I don’t expect a finish but I don’t see why Weidman is the favorite. And not only is he the favorite, but the line has moved more in his favor since the end of last week, which means people are betting Weidman. I don’t understand it. Two great wrestlers usually equals a striking match and Munoz has a pretty clear advantage there. What am I missing? Winner: Munoz


James Te Huna vs. Joey Beltran
Ryan: Te-Huna is coming off 2 impressive knockout wins, while Beltran lost his last 2 fights in the octagon. Te-Huna is better than Beltran in every aspect of the game. Te-Huna by KO. Winner: Te Huna

Alan: This is going to be a slugfest and I’m taking Te Huna as well. Beltran has a brick chin but Te Huna has a brick fist so as long as he lands first, he should get a quick TKO victory. Winner: Te Huna


Aaron Simpson vs. Kenny Robertson
Ryan: As long as Simpson isn’t drained by his first weight cut to 170lbs (which he shouldn’t because he his a veteran wrestler), he should have no problem beating Robertson. Simpson is a better wrestler and a more powerful striker. Simpson by TKO. Winner: Simpson

Alan: What we have here is a great minds think alike type situation. The biggest challenge for Simpson in this fight will be the weight cut. As long as he doesn’t gas, he should win this one easily. No disrespect to Robertson but Simpson went from a huge underdog to a huge favorite when Robertson was announced to replace Jon Fitch. Winner: Simpson


Karlos Vemola vs. Francis Carmont
Ryan: Vemola is a beast at 185lbs. He will have no problem out wrestling Carmont and look to take his back. If Vemola can’t sink in the RNC he will finish the fight by GNP. Winner: Vemola

Alan: We agree again. I don’t think the gap is as big between these two and Vemola could be in trouble if he decides to stand and trade but as long as he looks to get the takedown and control Carmont on the mat, he should be able to earn the victory. Winner: Vemola


T.J. Dillashaw vs. Vaughan Lee
Ryan: Lee is a well rounded fighter, but Dillashaw will sooner or later take Lee down and submit him (most likely with a RNC). Winner: Dillashaw

Alan: I don’t think this one will be close. Dillashaw is constantly improving training at Team Alpha Male and Lee was supposed to be a feeder for Kid Yamamoto. Dillashaw did everything but finish Walel Watson in his last fight and hopefully he can take that next step against Lee. Winner: Dillashaw


Anthony Njokuani vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
Ryan: Njokuani has trouble with good ground fighters. On top of that, Rafael dos Anjos has developed some excellent striking. Rafael dos Anjos by submission. Winner: Dos Anjos

Alan: We finally disagree! But after Ryan’s perfect night, I don’t feel great about it. I don’t think Dos Anjos has the wrestling to get Njokuani down and keep him down. Danny Castillo struggled to keep him down and I don’t think Dos Anjos has that kind of wrestling. I expect Njokuani to keep this fight mostly on the feet and strike his way to victory. Winner: Njokuani

UFC 148 Aftermath : Who’s Next?

UFC 148 definitely lived up to the hype, and was easily one of the most exciting MMA events this year. Now that the fights have come to a conclusion, the UFC has to decide what’s.

UFC 148 definitely lived up to the hype, and was easily one of the most exciting MMA events this year. Now that the fights have come to a conclusion, the UFC has to decide what’s next for the fighters. For those who were defeated, just how far did they get knocked down the ranking ladder? For those victorious, how much closer does this bring them to a fight for the title? Is there anyone who will not be returning to the octagon? These are just some a few of the questions that are being asked after UFC 148.

Mike Easton and Ivan Menjivar had a three round back and forth fight that saw Easton getting his hand raised. After the performance that Easton showcased, his next opponent should be a top ten contender. Eddie Wineland or Michael McDonald would most likely be the best choice to ensure another exciting striking war. Menjivar was the underdog, but still displayed a commendable performance. A perfect opponent for Menjivar to face next is Scott Jorgensen. Both are coming off a loss, but are still considered to be two high-level fighters in the division.

Chad Mendes’ quick finish of Cody McKenzie just shows how bizarre this match up was. Mendes should have been matched with someone of a much higher ranking, especially seeing his last fight was against Jose Aldo for the lightweight title. Mendes should fight Ricardo Llams next, but if it ends up being someone talented like Charles Oliveria, then that would still be justifiable opponent. Who knows who KcKenzie’s next opponent will be, but clearly it shouldn’t be an elite contender. He’s just not ready for that yet, and his fight with Mendes is proof of that.

In a stunning upset, Demian Maia make quick work of Dong Hyun Kim, proving that he is a force to be reckoned with at welterweight. Many people speculated that the weight cut would hurt his performance, but it actually helped it, and made him much faster. Whether or not the fight was stopped due to an injury received by Kim is irrelevant. Maia got Kim right where he wanted him and unleashed a fury of punches, the referee would’ve had to step in regardless. After taking out a fighter as good as Kim like it was child‘s play, Joe Silva should give Maia a fighter either in the top ten or just outside the top ten. Diego Sanchez would be ideal if he doesn’t decide to return to lightweight. However, it would be understandable if Maia were to pull a fighter like Jake Ellenberger.

After Cung Le’s performance over Patrick Cote, people are realizing that maybe they were to quick to turn on him. After all, he was out striking Wanderlei Silva for the majority of their fight, and scored multiple knock downs. Not to mention, Patrick Cote was cut from the UFC in 2010, after three consecutive losses. The only reason he was brought back was to fill a spot when Rich Franklin was pulled from the bout. Since being cut from the UFC, Cote had fought less talented competition and just isn’t on Le’s striking level. Joe Silva should match up Le and Costa Philippou seeing they both won their last fight, and fought on the same card. If the UFC grants Cote another fight, a rematch with Chris Leben is one that fans would go crazy for. Leben’s suspension will end in November, so the timing couldn’t be more perfect.

Fight of the night award winners, Forrest Griffin and Tito Ortiz had a very controversial decision in the eyes of the crowd. However, most MMA website agree with the decision that Griffin won the first two rounds. What was more shocking was Griffin running out of the octagon before the official decision came out, and then later taking
Joe Rogan’s microphone to interview Ortiz himself. Griffin later apologized for his actions and simply stated he wasn’t thinking and wish he could take it all back. Ortiz officially retired after the fight, and was inducted in the UFC Hall of Fame. Griffin was asked if he had planned to retire as well, but Griffin stated that he definitely had a few more fights in him. Many have suggested a rematch with Rampage Jackson or Stephan Bonnar for Griffin’s next fight, which are most likely the most interesting fights for the fans.

Chael Sonnen made round one of his rematch with Anderson Silva look like a reenactment of their first encounter. After securing a takedown just seconds into the fight, Sonnen was able to control Silva on the ground and land over seventy strikes, while taking zero. What was more impressive, was Sonnen passing Silva’s guard and achieving the mount position, instead of being content with staying in Silva’s full guard like in their first fight. However Silva turned things around in round two. He was able to keep the fight standing and avoid the takedown attempts of Sonnen. The most important strike Silva was able to dodge was a spinning back fist that when missed, threw Sonnen off balance and caused him to tumble to the mat. Once Sonnen was down, Silva seized his opportunity to pressure Sonnen with a plethora of strikes. Once Silva took control, it was the beginning of the end for Sonnen, and the referee eventually had to step in. As far as who is next for Silva, there aren’t many options to go with. If Mark Munoz beats Chris Weidman, it would most likely make Munoz the number one contender. However, if Weidman is victorious, the UFC may wait to see how the fight between Hector Lombard and Tim Boetsch plays out. As for Chael Sonnen, A fight with Vitor Belfort would be a bout fans would like to see due to the added tension with neither fighter being to fond of the other. However, before that fight can happen, Sonnen needs to decide whether or not he will continue fighting. He said he would like to take some time before making a final decision, but the majority of the fans are confident that we will see the American gangster come back to the octagon.

Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

UFC on Fuel TV 4 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part 1

Chris Weidman vs. Mark Munoz The headliner at UFC on Fuel TV 4 is a matchup of up and coming middleweights. After Anderson Silva’s dominant performance at UFC 148, fans are looking for someone who.

Chris Weidman vs. Mark Munoz

The headliner at UFC on Fuel TV 4 is a matchup of up and coming middleweights. After Anderson Silva’s dominant performance at UFC 148, fans are looking for someone who might be able to challenge him in the future and this fight features two of the brighter young prospects in the division. Both come from a highly decorated wrestling background as two time All-Americans with Munoz even capturing a national championship.

Munoz had his first professional MMA fight in the summer of 2007 and is 12-2 in his career. He has seven wins and two losses in his UFC career. One was in his first UFC appearance against Matt Hamill and the other was against perennial contender Yushin Okami. Since the loss to Okami, he has reeled off four straight victories including his last two appearances against Demian Maia and Chris Leben. As expected, his main asset in the cage is his wrestling but he is not a prototypical decision grinder like many of the former collegiate wrestlers. He has devastating power in his hands and has shown some of the fiercest ground and pound in all of MMA. He is one of the few fighters who has one punch knock out power on the ground as well as on the feet.

Weidman is less experienced than Munoz having made his debut in February of 2009 and having only eight professional fights thus far in his career. However, he has won all eight of those fights. His last four victories have come in the UFC with the last two coming against Tom Lawlor and Demian Maia. His most recent performance against Maia was lackluster at best, which could have been due to accepting the fight on late notice and struggling with the weight cut. Regardless of the reasons for the performance, he will need to improve greatly if he wants to continue his undefeated streak. Like Munoz, his game is predicated on wrestling but he seems to prefer submissions to ground and pound when looking to finish.

When two high caliber wrestlers meet in the octagon, the result is usually a less than technical kickboxing match. Based on previous performance, Munoz is the better striker but high level athletes like Weidman tend to grow exponentially between fights early in their careers so I expect him to show a marked improvement in his striking. That said, Munoz should still have the advantage. The key to this fight will be who, if anyone, can land takedowns. Munoz will more than likely look to use his wrestling defensively and hope to exploit a striking advantage. But if the striking is close, he may look for the takedown. Weidman will be the more likely fighter to try to engage in a wrestling match as earning top position would give him the opportunity to work his submission game.

Weidman is the favorite for this fight at -135 with Munoz coming in at +115. I know Weidman is the new hot prospect with his undefeated record but I don’t quite understand that line. We’ve seen these types of fights between top level wrestlers before and they almost always turn into striking matches. And based on what we’ve seen so far, Munoz has an advantage in that category. Expect to see these two stand for most of the fight and if that’s the case, Munoz should be able to oustrike his opponent. But if Weidman can get a few takedowns and control from the top position, he has the submission skills to finish the fight and earn the victory.

James Te Huna vs. Joey Beltran

The UFC gives the fans what they want with a heavyweight slugfest between James Te Huna and Joey Beltran. Both of these fighters approach the cage with the same gameplan every time. The are both looking to stand and bang until someone can’t stand any longer.

Te Huna is 14-2 overall including a 3-1 record in the UFC. He has won his last two fights against Aaron Rosa and Ricardo Romero via TKO in less than three minutes combined. His performance against Rosa in his last fight was particularly devastating and should have been stopped well before the forty seven second mark where it was finally ended. Te Huna’s weakness is his ground game but don’t expect Beltran to test it as he has done nothing but brawl throughout his career. He is 14-7 overall and went 3-4 in his most recent UFC stint being let go after back to back losses to Stipo Miocic and Lavar Johnson. Beltran has a ridiculous chin and has made a career of eating huge shots to land his own. This is a dangerous fight for him because he cannot afford to get hit too many times by Te Huna. This fight seems destined for a first round stoppage and unfortunately for Beltran, his jaw seems more likely to receive the shot that ends it.

None of the major bookmakers have odds for any of the fights on this card other than the main event but if they did, Te Huna would have to be a big favorite here. Beltran’s only hope is for his brick chin to allow him to survive long enough to land a haymaker on Te Huna. Expect a slugfest from the outset and this one will probably be done inside of the first five minute.

Aaron Simpson vs. Kenny Robertson

In a fight changed due to injury, Kenny Robertson replaces Jon Fitch to welcome Aaron Simpson to the welterweight division. Simpson has been a fixture in the UFC middleweight division for years but was never able to earn a signature victory. At thirty seven years old, he will make the cut to welterweight for the first time in the hopes of finding more success.

Simpson dropped a close decision to Ronny Markes in his last appearance. He hurt Markes early and won the first round but didn’t muster much offense after than and lost the last two rounds. Prior to that fight, he had won three straight following a two fight losing streak to Mark Munoz and Chris Leben. He will look to get back on the winning track against Robertson, who lost to Mike Pierce via TKO in the 2nd round in his only UFC appearance. However, that loss is the only one on Robertson’s record so this is an opportunity for him to earn his way into the UFC. Simpson comes from a wrestling background and has developed his striking over the years. He has the power to finish the fight with his hands and has done so on many occasions. Robertson prefers to bring the fight to the ground and work his submission game, which will be difficult to do against a wrestler like Simpson.

Unfortunately for Robertson, he faces a similar situation to what he faced in his first UFC appearance against Mike Pierce. Simpson is stronger and a better wrestler, which will make it difficult for Robertson to get the fight to the ground where he wants it. Expect Simpson to use his strength to control the fight and if he finds Robertson’s chin, the fight could be over quickly. However, if Robertson can make Simpson work and take the fight into the third round, we might see Simpson struggling with his cardio after cutting to 170 lbs for the first time. If that’s the case, Robertson may get the opportunity to get Simpson on the ground and work for submissions.

UFC on Fuel TV 4 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part 2

Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Anthony Njokuani In another fight changed due to injury, the UFC on Fuel TV 4 opener will feature Anthony Njokuani and Rafael Dos Anjos who steps in to replace Paul Taylor..


Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Anthony Njokuani

In another fight changed due to injury, the UFC on Fuel TV 4 opener will feature Anthony Njokuani and Rafael Dos Anjos who steps in to replace Paul Taylor. Normally, the UFC likes to start their cards with a fight between lighter weight fighters who are likely to stand and strike to get the crowd into the event and hook the television audience. With Njokuani and Taylor, that would have been the case. Instead, we will see a classic grappler versus striker matchup as Dos Anjos will look to get Njokuani to the ground and work his black belt level jiu-jitsu.

Njokuani is one of the best strikers in the lightweight division. His long lean frame gives him a huge reach advantage against just about every other fighter in the division including Dos Anjos. His gameplan is pretty much the same for every fight. He looks to use his reach to keep his opponent at a distance and strike his way to victory. He is capable of a knockout but is not known for finishing and if he does earn a finish, it usually comes late in the fight due more to an accumulation of strikes than to the power of any one individual strike. He is 2-2 in his UFC career since moving over from the WEC with wins against John Makdessi and Andre Winner and losses against Edson Barboza and Danny Castillo. His performance against Makdessi in his last appearance was particularly impressive as he used his length to dominate with kicks. But he’ll need to be in even better form if he wants to put together back to back victories as Dos Anjos represents a step up in competition. Dos Anjos is mainly known as a jiu-jitsu fighter who looks to get his opponents to the mat and submit them. He has earned half of his sixteen career victories via submission including his last victory against Kamal Shalorus by rear naked choke. However, he set up the choke with a head kick that dropped Shalorus showing an improvement in his striking ability. Dos Anjos has been up and down in his UFC career with a 5-4 record but a victory against Njokuani would earn him back to back victories for the first time since 2010.

This fight is likely to be determined by whether or not Dos Anjos succeeds in landing the takedown. He showed improved striking against Shalorus but he is not on Njokuani’s level in that area and he will struggle to close the distance against the reach advantage of his opponent. The last fighter to get Njokuani down and control him was Danny Castillo. And even he struggled to maintain any kind of dominant position. Dos Anjos’s takedowns are not on that level and he is likely to struggle to get Njokuani down and keep him down. Expect Njokuani to use his reach advantage to keep Dos Anjos at distance and if he can do that, he should be able to strike his way to victory. But Dos Anjos only needs a few seconds on the ground to lock on to a submission so if he can get the takedown, he could earn the victory.

T.J. Dillashaw vs. Vaughan Lee

In the second fight of the night on Fuel TV, young bantamweight prospect T.J. Dillashaw will face Vaughan Lee. Dillashaw is just twenty six years old and has a 5-1 career record. The team alpha male product will look to build on his last victory against Walel Watson and continue to establish himself as a threat in the 135 lb division. Lee will be looking to prove that his upset victory over Norifumi Yamamoto was not a fluke and earn the right to continue fighting in the UFC.

Lee is 1-1 in his UFC career having lost a split decision to Chris Cariaso in his first fight before shocking everyone by upsetting Yamamoto in Japan at UFC 144. Lee was in trouble early in that fight but responded with a flying knee that eventually led to an armbar submission victory late in the first round. With a 12-7-1 career record, he will need to pull off another upset to prove that he belongs in the UFC bantamweight division. Coming from one of the best camps in the world, T.J. Dillashaw is looking to establish himself as a serious threat at 135 lbs. He dominated Walel Watson in his last UFC appearance earning a unanimous decision victory. He repeatedly put Watson on his back and rode him back and forth from mount to back mount landing strikes all along the way. He did everything but finish and he’ll be looking to do just that in this fight.

Dillashaw is the clear favorite going into this fight. He will look to put Lee on his back and work his impressive grappling game. But he’ll need to be careful as Lee has more to offer on the ground than Watson did. Expect to see a lot of grappling and whoever gets the better of the scrambles will likely earn the victory. If Dillashaw continues to show the kind of improvement he showed between his last two fights, he should be able to earn his second consecutive UFC victory.

Karlos Vemola vs. Francis Carmont

In a matchup of exciting middleweights who rarely make use of the judges scorecards, Karlos Vemola takes on Francis Carmont. Neither is a serious contender in the division but both have a tendency to fight aggressively, which is good news for the fans. Both fighters have knockout power and both are capable of submissions.

Vemola has alternated wins and losses on his way to a 2-2 record in the UFC. He earned a second round victory via rear naked choke against Mike Massenzio in his last appearance. That marked his fifth career victory in eleven fights via RNC. Vemola is an explosive fighter with big power in his hands. His submission victories are also usually based on overpowering his opponents. However, he is not the most technical fighter and has been controlled by opponents who approach him with a clear game plan of avoiding the exchanges and putting him on his back. Carmont, however, is not that type of fighter. He also looks for the finish and is likely to trade with Vemola early, which could be dangerous. If he goes for the takedown, he will look for submissions and not be interested in simply controlling his opponent. Carmont is 2-0 in his UFC career including his most recent victory over Magnus Cedenbland via rear naked choke. He was in trouble in the first round of that fight but responded in the second round with a quick takedown. From there, he moved to mount and used strikes to force his opponent to give up his back and neck.

This is another fight that isn’t likely to go to a decision. I don’t see either fighter having a clear advantage and the outcome will likely depend on who executes the most effective gameplan. Both fighters should be looking to set up a takedown and work from the top position as they both have the same weakness. If either fighter takes that approach, he is likely to earn the victory. But the more likely outcome is a series of exchanges on the feet and scrambles on the ground that eventually lead to a finish.

UFC 148 MMAFix Staff Picks: Part I

Anderson Silva (-280) vs. Chael Sonnen (+240) Ryan Poli: I have to go with Silva on this one. He has the striking and jiu-jitsu advantage, plus plenty of time to work on his takedown defense..

Anderson Silva (-280) vs. Chael Sonnen (+240)
Ryan Poli: I have to go with Silva on this one. He has the striking and jiu-jitsu advantage, plus plenty of time to work on his takedown defense. I don’t see Sonnen being able to change his strategy and that will be his downfall. Although the odds were much less generous for all of Silva’s other opponents, I am somewhat surprised that the odds are as high as they are in Silva’s favor just based on the how their first fight played out. Winner: Silva

John Rivera: Anderson Silva wins by KO/TKO in the 2nd Round. “The Spider” will publicly execute Chael Sonnen….we know this because he is the greatest fighter in the history of the sport. Winner: Silva

Emily Kapala: I personally think that Chael Sonnen is being undervalued in the eyes of the oddsmakers. Not only would I pick Sonnen as the winner, but I think he is the highest value bet. While the odds are against him, I think he will be able to pull through with the victory this time around when he faces Silva in the octagon. Winner: Sonnen

Elise Kapala: In almost every fight with Silva, the opposing fighter is the underdog. However, the last matchup with Sonnen and Silva was so intense and draining on Silva, there truly is no underdog here. If I had to choose a winner, I would say Sonnen via knockout in the 3rd or 4th round. Winner: Sonnen

Alan Wells: If I’m picking a winner, I’m going with Silva but if I’m betting the money line, I’m going with Sonnen. I’m not interested in -280 odds and after Sonnen’s performance in the first fight, I’m willing to take a flyer on him. I’m not expecting to win but if I need action on this fight, I’m going with Sonnen. Winner: Silva

MMAFix Staff Pick: Silva (3-2)



Tito Ortiz (+255) vs. Forrest Griffin (-310)
Ryan Poli: I’m going with the favorite to win. Although I wasn’t impressed by either of them in their last fight, Shogun is a more dangerous opponent than Lil’ Nog. Plus I would say with the exception of wrestling, Forrest has every advantage (age, cardio, reach, striking, jiu- jitsu). Winner: Griffin

John Rivera: I think Forrest takes a unanimous decision this time around. As much as I love Tito, I think as a fighter, his best days are behind him. Rashad ravaged him, and Lil’ Nog took the rest…. Winner: Griffin

Alan Wells: I hate this line. I don’t understand why Griffin is such a significant favorite. I like him to win but -310 makes him a waste of money. Once again, if I feel the need to wet my beak for this fight, I’m going with the underdog but I don’t feel great about my chances of getting that money back. Winner: Griffin

MMAFix Staff Pick: Griffin (3-0)

Cung Le (+180) vs. Patrick Cote (-220)
Ryan Poli: Cung Le all the way. His striking is more diverse and Cote has been fighting against much lower level competition for quite some time. He just isn’t at Cung Le’s level. Winner: Le

John Rivera: The headline will read: ‘Cote KO’s ex Strikeforce Champ, Cung Le in the 2nd round due to the former’s punching power and the latter’s lack of cardio.’ Winner: Cote

Alan Wells: I think the oddsmakers are just screwing with me at this point. If MMA was a more popular sport, this line would be a lot closer because the public would be moving it toward Le. But the betting pool for MMA isn’t nearly as big as other sports so the line is right where it should be. I like Cote to win and that’s where my money is going if I have to bet. The odds aren’t great but at least they’re better than the two headliners. Winner: Cote

MMAFix Staff Pick: Cote (2-1)