Remember when Mark Hunt could have been the next contender for the heavyweight title? When everyone fantasized that the heavy-handed, iron-chinned Samoan might have challenged Cain Velasquez? It would have made an extraordinary narrative; the nigh-unbeatable champion facing a one-dimensional specialist who had improbably salvaged his career at the last possible opportunity with the ability to put anyone’s lights out. It’s the stuff movies are made of.
In this case, reality is better.
No disrespect to Mark Hunt or what he managed to achieve, but it’s a good thing Junior Dos Santosput him down with that spinning wheel kick. There is no better fight to make in the heavyweight division than Dos Santos vs. Velasquez. With Daniel Cormier dropping to light-heavyweight, none even come close. Velasquez and Dos Santos are the two best heavyweights by a considerable margin, each with the tools, the experience and the will necessary to defeat the other. Their story doesn’t depend on any degree of improbability, appeal to sentiment or require any context beyond this simple truth; that they are the epitome of their profession striving to attain a title beyond the title. They are attempting to lay claim to the title of the best heavyweight of their era, to establish the successor to The Last Emperor.
While both Dos Santos and Velasquez are well-rounded and durable, those qualities manifest themselves in different ways. Dos Santos is more fluid in his stand-up, hits with more power, and moves with seemingly less effort. His cardio is solid, and he actually has a relatively fast pace for a heavyweight. And in his loss to Velasquez last year, he showed an exceptional ability to mitigate damage from the bottom while regaining position and standing. Velasquez, on the other hand, seems to be force incarnate. He knows no direction but forward, his cardio is unrelenting, and while he lacks Dos Santos’ pure stand-up ability, he is able to transition effortlessly between kickboxing and wrestling. This is particularly effective because he always pushes forward, constantly threatening the takedown, which opens up opportunities for his underrated hands and hard kicks.
Remember when Mark Hunt could have been the next contender for the heavyweight title? When everyone fantasized that the heavy-handed, iron-chinned Samoan might have challenged Cain Velasquez? It would have made an extraordinary narrative; the nigh-unbeatable champion facing a one-dimensional specialist who had improbably salvaged his career at the last possible opportunity with the ability to put anyone’s lights out. It’s the stuff movies are made of.
In this case, reality is better.
No disrespect to Mark Hunt or what he managed to achieve, but it’s a good thing Junior Dos Santosput him down with that spinning wheel kick. There is no better fight to make in the heavyweight division than Dos Santos vs. Velasquez. With Daniel Cormier dropping to light-heavyweight, none even come close. Velasquez and Dos Santos are the two best heavyweights by a considerable margin, each with the tools, the experience and the will necessary to defeat the other. Their story doesn’t depend on any degree of improbability, appeal to sentiment or require any context beyond this simple truth; that they are the epitome of their profession striving to attain a title beyond the title. They are attempting to lay claim to the title of the best heavyweight of their era, to establish the successor to The Last Emperor.
While both Dos Santos and Velasquez are well-rounded and durable, those qualities manifest themselves in different ways. Dos Santos is more fluid in his stand-up, hits with more power, and moves with seemingly less effort. His cardio is solid, and he actually has a relatively fast pace for a heavyweight. And in his loss to Velasquez last year, he showed an exceptional ability to mitigate damage from the bottom while regaining position and standing. Velasquez, on the other hand, seems to be force incarnate. He knows no direction but forward, his cardio is unrelenting, and while he lacks Dos Santos’ pure stand-up ability, he is able to transition effortlessly between kickboxing and wrestling. This is particularly effective because he always pushes forward, constantly threatening the takedown, which opens up opportunities for his underrated hands and hard kicks.
Each fighters’ advantages have made their presence felt in their previous fights. In the first fight — with both fighters injured — it was Dos Santos who capitalized on Velasquez’s reticence to engage or push the pace. Allowed to stay on the outside and pick his shots, Junior used his superior timing and feints to land a massive overhand right just a minute into the fight, resulting the end of Cain’s brief first reign. Velasquez was having none of that in the rematch, relentlessly pressuring Dos Santos with takedowns; that they were initially ineffective was no deterrent to his overarching strategy of moving Dos Santos backwards and draining his cardio. As his hands began to drop, Dos Santos was undone with a right cross from the former champion. While he lasted the next 22 minutes of the fight, he was never capable of victory. Cain simply continued to pressure Dos Santos, landing combinations and takedowns at will en route to a dominant decision.
Prediciting what will happen in their third fight is mostly a matter of weighing their accomplishments in their previous encounters. While some are inclined to simply state that a five-round decision says more than a one-minute knockout, this isn’t the case here. The victories, and the manners of those victories, are the result of specific tactics and moments. If Cain didn’t land that right hand in the second fight, he may well still have won, but it would not have likely been as dominant a victory as it was. Had Dos Santos missed that overhand right in the first fight, he may still have taken the title but it may have been a more measured affair dictated from a comfortable distance. This isn’t to diminish the authority of those results, but simply to state that focusing on the dichotomy between the length each fight lasted is a disingenuous way to analyze which fighter is superior and why.
That said, Velasquez has to be the favorite here. While Dos Santos is definitely capable of securing a knockout or even winning a decision, these scenarios are entirely dependent on if he can keep the fight standing. He should succeed in doing so for the first round, but beyond that Cain’s indominable pressure will grind him down. Velasquez will push forward yet again, mixing strikes with takedowns, opening opportunities up with constant forward pressure and level changes, forcing Dos Santos out of his comfort zone. Once he loses the space with which he’s able to effectively work his boxing, Dos Santos may delay the inevitable with his underrated ground game but will be incapable of denying Velasquez as the minutes ebb on. Velasquez is unlikely to be able to muster the power to finish Dos Santos up close, but that’s a sacrifice he’ll be willing to make in exchange to mitigate the danger Dos Santos poses. Expect another five-round decision — albeit perhaps a less one-sided one than the last — to result in Velasquez retaining his crown and asserting his claim as the greatest heavyweight since Fedor Emelianenko.
With a UFC event scheduled for this weekend that’s actually worth watching, it’s time for another installment of Ben vs. Jared, in which CagePotato’s founding editor Ben Goldstein and long-suffering staff writer Jared Jones go cabeza-a-cabeza to discuss some of this card’s major themes. For example: Is Shogun vs. Sonnen the most pointless match on the UFC Fight Night 26 main card? Is it safe to board the Matt Brown hype train? Will Joe Lauzon make history again? And is it Yuri or Iuri? Prepare for serious business…
So, Shogun vs. Sonnen at light-heavyweight — what’s at stake here? Anything? Anything at all?
BG: I think Shogun’s career is at stake, for one thing. If he loses to a one-dimensional middleweight (no offense, Chael), it’ll drop his UFC win percentage below .500, and bump him out of the UFC light-heavyweight contender picture, maybe permanently. He’ll enter that twilight stage of his career where he’s just showing up for “fun fights,” still famous enough to headline smaller UFC events in Brazil, but no longer part of the overall conversation. Or, he can just retire and run a gas station like his brother. Neither scenario is ideal, but the one that doesn’t require him to sustain traumatic brain injuries seems a little healthier.
For Chael, this fight is more of a no-lose proposition, just like his previous light-heavyweight appearance against Jon Jones. A win against Shogun would be a career highlight, and a loss just means he goes back to middleweight where he belongs, for a battle against Wanderlei Silva that he’s already trying to hype up. Sonnen has already exited the title picture in two different weight-classes, but I don’t even think that matters to him much anymore. Whether he’s shouting behind a FOX Sports broadcast desk or cutting promos after a fight, the man’s just content to have a microphone.
JJ: Fuuuuuuck no. “Out of the light heavyweight picture?” Shogun has been out of the light-heavyweight picture since the current champion put him out of the light heavyweight picture at UFC 128, and I say that as a Shogun fan. The fact is, Shogun can’t stay healthy, he can’t put a win streak together, and his BADBOY tights are getting more constrictive by the day. Training with Freddie Roach may prolong Rua’s career a year or two longer than he would have lasted without it, but Shogun has got to be about the oldest 31-year-old in MMA. He was just used as a stepping stone for Alexander Gustafsson (unless you honestly thought the UFC was setting him up to be slaughtered by Jones again), so as far as I’m concerned, he IS in the “fun fights” part of his career. Again, Shogun fan talking here.
With a UFC event scheduled for this weekend that’s actually worth watching, it’s time for another installment of Ben vs. Jared, in which CagePotato’s founding editor Ben Goldstein and long-suffering staff writer Jared Jones go cabeza-a-cabeza to discuss some of this card’s major themes. For example: Is Shogun vs. Sonnen the most pointless match on the UFC Fight Night 26 main card? Is it safe to board the Matt Brown hype train? Will Joe Lauzon make history again? And is it Yuri or Iuri? Prepare for serious business…
So, Shogun vs. Sonnen at light-heavyweight — what’s at stake here? Anything? Anything at all?
BG: I think Shogun’s career is at stake, for one thing. If he loses to a one-dimensional middleweight (no offense, Chael), it’ll drop his UFC win percentage below .500, and bump him out of the UFC light-heavyweight contender picture, maybe permanently. He’ll enter that twilight stage of his career where he’s just showing up for “fun fights,” still famous enough to headline smaller UFC events in Brazil, but no longer part of the overall conversation. Or, he can just retire and run a gas station like his brother. Neither scenario is ideal, but the one that doesn’t require him to sustain traumatic brain injuries seems a little healthier.
For Chael, this fight is more of a no-lose proposition, just like his previous light-heavyweight appearance against Jon Jones. A win against Shogun would be a career highlight, and a loss just means he goes back to middleweight where he belongs, for a battle against Wanderlei Silva that he’s already trying to hype up. Sonnen has already exited the title picture in two different weight-classes, but I don’t even think that matters to him much anymore. Whether he’s shouting behind a FOX Sports broadcast desk or cutting promos after a fight, the man’s just content to have a microphone.
JJ: Fuuuuuuck no. “Out of the light heavyweight picture?” Shogun has been out of the light-heavyweight picture since the current champion put him out of the light heavyweight picture at UFC 128, and I say that as a Shogun fan. The fact is, Shogun can’t stay healthy, he can’t put a win streak together, and his BADBOY tights are getting more constrictive by the day. Training with Freddie Roach may prolong Rua’s career a year or two longer than he would have lasted without it, but Shogun has got to be about the oldest 31-year-old in MMA. He was just used as a stepping stone for Alexander Gustafsson (unless you honestly thought the UFC was setting him up to be slaughtered by Jones again), so as far as I’m concerned, he IS in the “fun fights” part of his career. Again, Shogun fan talking here.
Don’t get me wrong, I purchased my tickets to “Fight Night” the day they went on sale, because the chance to see a legend like Shogun (among others) throw down before I die is something that is simply too good to pass up. But there’s nothing at stake here other than our entertainment, which I’m sure that Shogun and Sonnen will deliver on like they always do. Shogun is a big enough draw and performs well enough even when he’s off his game to continue fighting mid-to-upper tier guys while occasionally picking up wins until the UFC forces him to stop. His fight with Sonnen is no different, which is why I’ll just be cheering for a good fight while trying not to spill a drop of my $10 cup of Sam Adams come Saturday.
Somehow, Matt Brown has put together one of the most impressive win streaks of any non-champion in the UFC. If he beats Mike Pyle, will we have to start considering him an elite-level welterweight? And how far away would he be from a title shot if that happens?
JJ: At this point, I have no idea what to think about Matt Brown. Honestly, I’m starting to ponder the likelihood that some soul selling is behind his recent run of, well, not luck but something close to it. Three years ago, he was getting submitted by everyone who possessed a decent guillotine, and now he’s on a five-fight killing spree including a beatdown of the highly-touted Jordan Mein? (Don’t. Use. Scanners. Gif.).
The bad news is this: As was the case with Mark Hunt, Matt Brown’s improbable run is going to come to a screeching halt in the near future — specifically, the next time he faces an elite wrestler with a decent chin and good submissions. The good news is that I don’t think Mike Pyle, who is also enjoying some unexpected success as of late, is the man to do it. My prediction: Matt Brown by…murder. Then I say give him the Carlos Condit/Martin Kampmann winner. And as far as naming him an “elite” fighter? Come on, Ben, we both know that the UFC’s totally unbiased ranking system already does that for us. (*gives best “Can you believe this guy?” face*)
BG: Agreed; board this hype-train at your own risk. Look, putting together six wins in a row is a rare feat in the UFC, but I don’t think that beating a seasoned, well-rounded fighter like Mike Pyle would be any more impressive than Brown’s previous thrashings of Jordan Mein and Mike Swick. Brown’s recent streak has a lot to do with matchmaking; he’s had the fortune of being paired up against other bangers who have let Brown turn the fights into ugly brawls. At some point, he’ll have to face the kind of opponents who used to give him a lot of trouble, namely wrestlers and submission artists. Think of the way Dong Hyun Kim and Ricardo Almeida imposed their will on him, or the way four of his five appearances in 2010-2011 ended in submission losses. (All in the second round, by the way. Hopefully he saw Chael’s psychologist about that.)
Bottom line is, Matt Brown still has a long way to go in order to prove himself, even if he rips Pyle apart. A win on Saturday will put him on the title path at 170, where things start to get really hairy. Hendricks, Condit, Ellenberger, Rory Mac, Maia, Kampmann — he’ll have to beat at least two of those guys to punch his ticket to a title shot, and it’s doubtful that any of them will allow the scrappy underdog to turn it into an alley-fight.
If Joe Lauzon wins another end-of-night bonus on Saturday, he will once again break the record for most bonuses earned by a UFC fighter. (He’s currently tied with Anderson Silva at 12.) How likely is Lauzon to pick up a bonus on Saturday, considering his opponent and the rest of the lineup on this card?
BG: Lauzon has won Submission of the Night bonuses in each of his last five victories, and I like his odds for making it six in a row against Michael Johnson. For one thing, Johnson is submittable; Reza Madadi just won a $60,000 bump in April by tapping Johnson with a SOTN-winning d’arce choke, and “The Menace” also fell victim to a Paul Sass heel-hook back in 2011.
Not only does Lauzon hold a significant advantage against Johnson on the mat, the only other submission artists on Saturday’s card who are as dependable as Lauzon are Urijah Faber (6 subs and 4 SOTNs in his last 7 wins) and Cole Miller (6 subs and 3 SOTNs in his last 6 wins), and since Cole is fighting on Facebook, we can pretty much rule him out. So as I see it, it’s basically a coin toss between J-Lau and the California Kid.
Obviously, Lauzon’s chances of scoring one of the other end-of-night bonuses are much lower. It seems virtually impossible that Joe will produce the most impressive knockout on a card that also features Alistair Overeem vs. Travis Browne, Uriah Hall vs. John Howard, and assorted sluggers like Matt Brown and Conor McGregor. And with so many matchups designed for action on this card, Lauzon vs. Johnson has a ton of potential competition in the Fight of the Night department as well. So let’s hope Lauzon’s night ends with a bonus-worthy submission, because his life is about to get a lot more expensive.
JJ: I hate to agree with you, being that this is a “vs.” piece and all (speaking of which, we should probably come up with some sort of fight-based bet to sweeten the pot a little*), but it’s a well-known fact that I’ve been swingin’ from Lauzon’s gruesome twosome since back in the day. If Deathklok’s “Thunderhorse” could somehow be captured in a human vessel, it would be Joe Lauzon, and I predict he will do nothing less than annihilate Michael Johnson on the 17th. Johnson is in over his head, in enemy territory and is getting subbed in the first round. The only question is whether or not Lauzon will do it with that flying triangle off the cage he’s been practicing. If he does, I am fully prepared to shit bricks.
I similarly see either Brown or Overeem scoring KOTN, McGregor and Holloway possibly picking up FOTN and Lauzon snagging SOTN, either with the aforementioned pants-shitting flying triangle or some form of leg lock. The bank: You can take that to it.
This weekend’s card features Urijah Faber and Uriah Hall. It also features Mike Brown, Matt Brown, and Travis Browne, as well as Michael Johnson, Michael McDonald, and Mike Pyle, and a guy whose name is spelled Yuri or Iuri, depending on which database you’re looking at. How the fuck am I — the casual MMA fan — supposed to keep this all straight?
JJ: Chances are that if you’re the casual fan, you won’t know who half the aforementioned people are until Bruce Buffer is screaming their names with the passion of a thousand suns anyway (on that note, if Rene Rancourt is not brought into the mix, be it for a guest introduction or otherwise, I will find Dana White and uncork the ass whooping of a lifetime upon him for his insolence). I barely know who Yuri Alcantara is, and if you don’t believe me, read this article.
Honestly, this fight card is so stacked with so much talent and awesome matchups that it’s kind of hurting my eyes. If I could find Joe Silva right now, I’d give him a pat on his little head, a gold star for the day and hoist him up like so:
…did that answer your question?
BG: It’s pretty simple if you just memorize this mnemonic poem:
California sunny day Spell Urijah with a J Spinning kicks that make you fall No J in Uriah Hall
“Immortal” says his stomach-tat That’s the Brown who’s name is Matt Travis Browne’s near seven-feet high Mike Brown is the other guy
All these Michaels to keep straight: “Mayday” is the bantamweight Mike Pyle, party in the back Johnson is the one who’s…athletic and explosive
Nobody should have to worry How to spell “Yuri,” or “Iuri” We just call him Alcantara He will be choked out tomorra’
//////////
* BG: Alright, buster. Here are my main card picks: Sonnen, Browne, Faber, Brown, Howard, Lauzon. Post yours in the comments section. We’ll tally ‘em up after the show, and the loser has to get a life-sized tattoo of the winner’s face on their own face. Either that or a Starbucks gift-card.
(Double chin-smush. So intense. / Video via YouTube.com/UFC)
Are Chris Weidman‘s chances for an upset as good as everybody seems to think they are? Is Tim Kennedy better at talking than he is at fighting? Does UFC 162 feature the most stacked Facebook prelims in the history of curtain-jerking? And Dave Herman‘s getting fired, right? Read on as CagePotato founding editor Ben Goldstein and staff writer Jared Jones debate these topics — and so much more — and be sure to come back tomorrow night for our “Silva vs. Weidman” liveblog, beginning with the FX prelims at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT.
Chris Weidman has become the fashionable pick for an upset against Anderson Silva. You don’t actually believe he’ll pull it off, do you? I mean, you’re not a moron, right?
JJ: Now,I may be a moron, but there is one thing I am not, sir, and that, sir, is a moron.
If we were to have this debate immediately after Weidman had finished knocking Mark Munoz into an ice cream cake-induced depression, I would have told you that Anderson Silva was a dead man walking. “Weidman brings the kind of grappling prowess that, like Chael P. Sonnen before him, will all but completely suffocate Andy’s offense,” I would say whilst smoking a corncob pipe and farting into a wine glass, “And his striking, while clearly not on Silva’s level, has improved enough to keep the soon-to-be former champ hesitant in those rare moments when he won’t be fighting off his back.” I would have mocked you for daring to claim otherwise, then had security escort you out of my chalet bungalow when you inevitably lost your cool like a common miscreant.
And honestly, not a lot has changed since Weidman punched (and punched and punched) his way to #1 contender status almost a year ago to the day. That’s the problem. Weidman has been recovering from shoulder surgery and Silva has been retiring roided-up LHW’s in between increasingly shitty movie appearances. Am I crazy enough to pick a Chris Weidman coming off a year layoff to upset ANDERSON FREAKING SILVA? What do I look like, a moron?
BG: I feel like this wave of Weidman-support isn’t so much based on realistic analysis of the matchup, so much as fans’ natural desire to see some change after seven years of having the same champion dominating the competition, and other UFC fighters’ totally understandable self-interest in having that dominant champion go away for a while. It’s wishful thinking, basically.
Instead of discussing what Chris Weidman could theoretically do to Silva, you only need to consider Silva’s body of work in the UFC to understand that this fight probably won’t go the challenger’s way. And that’s fine. Weidman is still a young athlete who only started competing as a professional mixed martial artist in 2009. Experience counts in this sport, and Weidman just doesn’t have it. Whatever work he’s been doing in the gym, it won’t prepare him for that moment when he realizes — perhaps too late — just how talented and fearless Anderson Silva really is. I will now link you to the greatest GIF in MMA history.
The good news is, Weidman has a long career still ahead of him. Three years from now, Anderson Silva might be retired, and Chris Weidman will still be beating up top contenders. He’ll have his moment. Saturday night will not be that moment.
Tim Kennedy seems to talk a lot for a guy without many significant wins. Will Roger Gracie silence him for once, or will Kennedy finally live up to his own hype?
(Double chin-smush. So intense. / Video via YouTube.com/UFC)
Are Chris Weidman‘s chances for an upset as good as everybody seems to think they are? Is Tim Kennedy better at talking than he is at fighting? Does UFC 162 feature the most stacked Facebook prelims in the history of curtain-jerking? And Dave Herman‘s getting fired, right? Read on as CagePotato founding editor Ben Goldstein and staff writer Jared Jones debate these topics — and so much more — and be sure to come back tomorrow night for our “Silva vs. Weidman” liveblog, beginning with the FX prelims at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT.
Chris Weidman has become the fashionable pick for an upset against Anderson Silva. You don’t actually believe he’ll pull it off, do you? I mean, you’re not a moron, right?
JJ: Now,I may be a moron, but there is one thing I am not, sir, and that, sir, is a moron.
If we were to have this debate immediately after Weidman had finished knocking Mark Munoz into an ice cream cake-induced depression, I would have told you that Anderson Silva was a dead man walking. “Weidman brings the kind of grappling prowess that, like Chael P. Sonnen before him, will all but completely suffocate Andy’s offense,” I would say whilst smoking a corncob pipe and farting into a wine glass, “And his striking, while clearly not on Silva’s level, has improved enough to keep the soon-to-be former champ hesitant in those rare moments when he won’t be fighting off his back.” I would have mocked you for daring to claim otherwise, then had security escort you out of my chalet bungalow when you inevitably lost your cool like a common miscreant.
And honestly, not a lot has changed since Weidman punched (and punched and punched) his way to #1 contender status almost a year ago to the day. That’s the problem. Weidman has been recovering from shoulder surgery and Silva has been retiring roided-up LHW’s in between increasingly shitty movie appearances. Am I crazy enough to pick a Chris Weidman coming off a year layoff to upset ANDERSON FREAKING SILVA? What do I look like, a moron?
BG: I feel like this wave of Weidman-support isn’t so much based on realistic analysis of the matchup, so much as fans’ natural desire to see some change after seven years of having the same champion dominating the competition, and other UFC fighters’ totally understandable self-interest in having that dominant champion go away for a while. It’s wishful thinking, basically.
Instead of discussing what Chris Weidman could theoretically do to Silva, you only need to consider Silva’s body of work in the UFC to understand that this fight probably won’t go the challenger’s way. And that’s fine. Weidman is still a young athlete who only started competing as a professional mixed martial artist in 2009. Experience counts in this sport, and Weidman just doesn’t have it. Whatever work he’s been doing in the gym, it won’t prepare him for that moment when he realizes — perhaps too late — just how talented and fearless Anderson Silva really is. I will now link you to the greatest GIF in MMA history.
The good news is, Weidman has a long career still ahead of him. Three years from now, Anderson Silva might be retired, and Chris Weidman will still be beating up top contenders. He’ll have his moment. Saturday night will not be that moment.
Tim Kennedy seems to talk a lot for a guy without many significant wins. Will Roger Gracie silence him for once, or will Kennedy finally live up to his own hype?
I mention all that to say this: I really don’t know if he’ll beat Roger Gracie, but his job might depend on it. The reason why the UFC continues to do business with Roy Nelson is because Nelson gives the fans what they want to see, every single time: A devastating knockout, or a fat guy getting the shit beaten out of him for 15 minutes. That’s entertainment. But if Tim Kennedy is unpopular with his boss, not a huge viewership draw, and not particularly cheap to have around, he’d better win on Saturday, or lose in a spectacular dogfight.
Alright, I know that’s a cop-out. Here’s my official prediction: Kennedy manages to keep the fight standing and wins by unanimous decision; the performance won’t do much for him, one way or the other.
JJ: My problem with Tim Kennedy isn’t that he shoots his gums off every now and again, it’s that for all the shit-talking he does, he’s never really impressed me all that much in the ring. He’s got a pair of decent victories over Robbie Lawler and Melvin Manhoef, but he was little more than a walking punching bag for Luke Rockhold and was similarly outgunned by Jacare back at Strikeforce: Houston. If Kennedy wants to continue trashing everyone and everything, he’d best score an impressive victory in his UFC debut.
Thankfully for Kennedy, I don’t think the bookies are giving him his due credit. Kennedy is a solid wrestler with decent standup skills to match, which makes him the Kryptonite of Roger Gracie (or really, any modern-day Gracie). I mean, did you even see Roger’s fight against King Mo? It was like watching a MacGruber sketch; you knew that a bomb was gonna go off at some point, it was just a matter of how long you could suspend your disbelief.
Is there anybody on the card whose odds of getting fired afterwards are greater than Dave Herman‘s?
JJ: Short answer:No. Long answer: Noooooooooope.
BG: Definitely not, and I’m a little shocked that Herman hasn’t already been fired, what with his three-straight stoppage losses and the multiple marijuana-relatedmisunderstandings. But hey, it’s not like Gabriel Gonzaga has been the most consistent heavyweight on the UFC’s roster; maybe Herman can pull off the win here and save his job. I’d say that the next guy on the danger-list might be Chris Leben, whose history of drug suspensions and other mayhem far overshadows Herman’s — but Dana White simply loves him too much. So I’ll just point out that Rafaello Oliveira has gone 1-2 in his latest UFC stint, and he’s facing Edson Barboza on Saturday. Never a great combination.
On the next page:Is Cub Swanson a legitimate title contender, what’s the most profitable bet you can place on this card, and why are Seth Baczynski and Mike Pierce stuck on Facebook?
(Cain doesn’t see an enormous head. He sees a big, beautiful, blood-piñata, just waiting to burst open and spill its bounty. / Photo via MMAFighting.com)
BG and Danga are back mahfuckas, baaaaaaaaaaaaam! [*cough*] Excuse me. What I meant to say was, UFC 160 goes down tomorrow night in Las Vegas, so CagePotato founding editor Ben Goldstein and staff writer Jared Jones have teamed up once again to discuss all the important themes surrounding the event. Which heavyweight fight on the main card is more likely to end in an upset? Should we write off KJ Noons as nothing more than UFC shark-bait? What’s a Nurmagomedov gotta do to get some respect around here? Read on, and throw down your own opinions in the comments section.
It seems pretty obviousthat the UFC is trying to set up Dos Santos vs. Velasquez III, but who stands the better chance of throwing a wrench in their plans, Hunt or Silva?
Ben: I hate to agree with this jackass — and how dare you try to persuade me by linking to a track from Primus’s underrated Rhinoplasty EP, Jared — so for the sake of argument, I’ll go ahead and say ARE *YOU* KIDDING *ME* WITH THIS?? Mark Hunt has built up a dubious win streak slinging haymakers against guys who allowed him to do so. Junior Dos Santos is far too disciplined to become another victim of the same old rock-’em-sock-’em Super Samoan routine. In a brawl, Hunt has a chance against anybody. But this won’t be a brawl — it’ll be boxing match, and JDS is about as good as they come in that department.
And sure, Hunt has scored a string of upsets against guys like Cheick Kongo and Stefan Struve. Meanwhile, Antonio Silva has scored far more unexpected and dramatic upsets against guys like Fedor Emelianenko and the aforementioned ‘Reem. Bigfoot has heart for days, and fists big enough to dummy up anybody in the heavyweight division on any given night, including the current champion. How many times are you gonna sleep on this guy? #BigfootEra
Gray Maynard vs. T.J. Grant: Who will earn the right to suffer a narrow split decision loss to Ben Henderson next?
(Cain doesn’t see an enormous head. He sees a big, beautiful, blood-piñata, just waiting to burst open and spill its bounty. / Photo via MMAFighting.com)
BG and Danga are back mahfuckas, baaaaaaaaaaaaam! [*cough*] Excuse me. What I meant to say was, UFC 160 goes down tomorrow night in Las Vegas, so CagePotato founding editor Ben Goldstein and staff writer Jared Jones have teamed up once again to discuss all the important themes surrounding the event. Which heavyweight fight on the main card is more likely to end in an upset? Should we write off KJ Noons as nothing more than UFC shark-bait? What’s a Nurmagomedov gotta do to get some respect around here? Read on, and throw down your own opinions in the comments section.
It seems pretty obviousthat the UFC is trying to set up Dos Santos vs. Velasquez III, but who stands the better chance of throwing a wrench in their plans, Hunt or Silva?
Ben: I hate to agree with this jackass — and how dare you try to persuade me by linking to a track from Primus’s underrated Rhinoplasty EP, Jared — so for the sake of argument, I’ll go ahead and say ARE *YOU* KIDDING *ME* WITH THIS?? Mark Hunt has built up a dubious win streak slinging haymakers against guys who allowed him to do so. Junior Dos Santos is far too disciplined to become another victim of the same old rock-’em-sock-’em Super Samoan routine. In a brawl, Hunt has a chance against anybody. But this won’t be a brawl — it’ll be boxing match, and JDS is about as good as they come in that department.
And sure, Hunt has scored a string of upsets against guys like Cheick Kongo and Stefan Struve. Meanwhile, Antonio Silva has scored far more unexpected and dramatic upsets against guys like Fedor Emelianenko and the aforementioned ‘Reem. Bigfoot has heart for days, and fists big enough to dummy up anybody in the heavyweight division on any given night, including the current champion. How many times are you gonna sleep on this guy? #BigfootEra
Gray Maynard vs. T.J. Grant: Who will earn the right to suffer a narrow split decision loss to Ben Henderson next?
Ben: I feel like Gray Maynard is one those fighters who can beat everybody in his weight division except for the very elite talents (see also: Bisping at middleweight, Condit at welterweight), and this seems like the kind of matchup that the Bully wins nine times out of ten. I’m not trying to shovel shit on T.J. Grant’s skills or his recent wins, it’s just that he hasn’t proven himself to be a Top 5 caliber fighter yet and I can’t identify any one specific thing that he does better than Maynard, other than maybe throwing those elbows of his. My prediction: This fight will not be decided by elbow strikes, Maynard will grind out a unanimous decision, and the UFC will change its mind and find somebody other than Gray Maynard to suffer the next narrow split-decision loss to Ben Henderson — maybe Anthony Pettis, after he’s done pretending to be a featherweight.
Jared: Yeah, you’re probably right about Gray, but T.J. Grant 2.0 has been on an absolute killing spree in the lightweight division, my friend. His performance against Evan Dunham really showcased how far he has come as a striker, and coupled with Maynard’s potential ring rust, Grant makes for an underdog pick that I’m more than comfortable placing a few dollars on. The fact that Maynard’s striking doesn’t hold a candle to his ground game leads me to believe that Gray could find himself in a heck of a heap of trouble wherever this fight takes place. While “The Bully” maintains the ability to hold Grant down for long enough to earn another title shot (that he will likely lose), I’m going to play devil’s advocate here and pick Grant to win. Big whoop wannafightaboutit?
Does anyone want KJ Noons to ever win a fight again?
Jared: It sure doesn’t seem like it. I realize that he and Donald Cerrone are both coming off losses (which, in Cerrone’s case, almost meant the loss of his life), but that’s like saying that the Toronto Maple Leaves and the Florida Panthers are both coming off “rough seasons.” Noons has dropped four out of his last five fights, including a (bullshit) loss to Ryan Couture — who was just steamrolled by Ross Pearson in his own debut — in his last contest, and you’re going to stick him in there with “Cowboy” Cerrone, the man who only loses to title holders and future contenders?
Don’t get me wrong, Noons is one tough sonofabitchbastard and this should make for a great fight, but also one that Noons stands next to no chance of winning. Cerrone hasn’t made the same mistake of flapping his gums off like he did before the Pettis fight, but what he will do is use a game plan similar to that of Jorge Masvidal to dominate Noons en route to a UD victory that bears at least one 30-26. My question is: With 5 losses in his past 6 fights, will Noons go one-and-out in the UFC, or is he being primed to take Leonard Garcia’s throne as the affable yet down-on-his-luck slugger?
Ben: I actually think the UFC does want KJ Noons to win another fight and stick around in the company for a while — what with his fan-friendly slugging style and gorgeous head of hair. It’s just that they don’t want him to win this fight in particular. This match is a rebound for Cowboy, plain and simple, and Noons will play his role accordingly. (As for your prediction that one judge will score it 30-26? That would be Cecil Peoples. Meanwhile, Nelson Hamilton and Glenn Trowbridge will dispose of their scorecards after Cerrone wins by second-round TKO. Ah, yeah. Cecil Peoples jokes. I’ve been doing this for over five years now, and that’s not depressing at all.)
The UFC tends to give second chances to guys who are immediately thrown to the wolves in their UFC debuts or step in as short-notice injury replacements and get smashed, and Noons certainly fits that first category. Look for him to return later this year in a fight he can actually win. (Say, what’s that Yancy dude up to?)
Ben: Well, Jeremy Stephens is the only prelim fighter who’s guaranteed to be cut if he loses on Saturday, considering that he’s already on a three-fight losing skid, and he’s fighting an Octagon newbie who’s best known for getting spinning-backfisted into a living death. The only problem is, I think Stephens will win that fight.
So I’m going to make a riskier pick and say Brian Bowles will never fight in the UFC again. The former WEC bantamweight champion has drifted out of relevance following his loss to Urijah Faber at UFC 139 and his subsequent year-and-a-half long injury layoff. George Roop will outstrike Bowles to a decision victory, and the UFC will realize that there’s really no point in keeping Bowles around anymore.
As for Khabib Nurmagomedov (aka “The Eagle”), it’s only his unpronounceably ethnic name that’s keeping him stuck underneath the Colton Smiths and Rick Storys of the world. But once he tears through Abel Trujillo, he’ll be the owner of a 20-0 record and four straight wins in the UFC. At that point, it won’t matter if his name is Beezow Doo-Doo Zopittybop-Bop-BopSteinberg, the UFC won’t be able to keep this guy a secret any longer.
On Bowles’ WORST DAY, he would still beat the stuffing out of the puffed up crow’s cock that is George Roop, and I say that with all due respect. Luckily for us, this theory is going to be put to the test on Saturday, as Bowles will be coming off the longest layoff of his career as you mentioned. While I usually don’t base fight predictions on a fighter’s record, the fact that Roop hasn’t put together 2 wins in a row since 2008 (well technically, 07-08) is a more telling statistic than the reach advantage that Roop will fail to utilize as he has most of his career. Come Monday morning, Roop is going to venting his frustrations with fighter pay, the UFC’s preference of stand-and-bangers, and President Obama’s “crappy policies” to any two-bit journalist that will listen. Don’t worry; I’ve already got his number on speed dial.
It’s anyone’s guess why a guy as talented, not to mention exciting as Kebab NumaNumaYeah is still buried on the prelims, but in this case, I think it might actually make sense. UFC 160’s main card is stacked, quite honestly, yet I haven’t seen one advertisement for the event despite watching Bar Rescue on Spike TV for six hours yesterday. My masochistic TV tendencies aside, DW & Co. are probably thinking that the best way to score some last-minute PPV buys is with an exciting televised card for the meek, non-Smashers to enjoy. Starting said card with a fight that is sure to both bring the pain and piss off the Culinary Union? Sound like a win-win to me.
(Guys, seriously, you gotta stop this or I’m gonna have a harder time hiding this erection than Jean-Claude Van Damme.)
By George Shunick
This weekend, the MGM Grand Garden Arena will host the most highly anticipated fight this year when middleweight champion Anderson Silva faces off against, err, “middleweight champion”Chael P. Sonnen. As we all know, Sonnen was the man who almost took Silva’s title at UFC 117, dismantling the champion through punishing ground and pound and even rocking MMA’s greatest striker on the feet before succumbing to a triangle choke after winning the previous 23 minutes of the fight. Following the fight, it was revealed Silva fought with a badly injured rib and Sonnen had a testosterone to epitestosterone ratio of 16.9 to 1. Regardless, due to Sonnen’s trash talk and how close their last fight was, this fight has the potential to be one of the best fights of the summer.
However, will this be the “biggest rematch in the history of the business,” as Sonnen claims? Maybe, but I doubt it. You could argue Lesnar-Mir II is more likely to be successful financially, or that Liddell-Ortiz II or Liddell-Couture II/III were more culturally significant for a burgeoning sport, but virtually all lacked such a compelling narrative or contained the level of talent featured here. Moreover, in hindsight, they were rather one-sided matchups. Edgar-Maynard II and III were probably of a higher caliber that Silva-Sonnen II will be, simply by virtue of being two of the greatest fights in the history of the sport, but lacked the hype and context that this matchup possesses.
This matchup has the potential to rank alongside Fedor-Nogueira III, which saw the two greatest heavyweights in MMA history – and the two top-ranked heavyweights at that time – fight for the Pride heavyweight title; both fights possess a historic air about them, feature top level talent, and take place within the narrative framework of a rivalry. But I still think the gold standard for a rematch will remain Jackson-Silva II, which had every ingredient you could wish for in a rematch turned up to 11. It had two of the greatest fighters in MMA history, in one of the greatest rivalries in MMA history, in one of the greatest fights in MMA history, culminating in one of the greatest knockouts in MMA history. Suffice it to say, Sonnen-Silva II has a lot to accomplish to validate Sonnen’s comments.
(Guys, seriously, you gotta stop this or I’m gonna have a harder time hiding this erection than Jean-Claude Van Damme.)
By George Shunick
This weekend, the MGM Grand Garden Arena will host the most highly anticipated fight this year when middleweight champion Anderson Silva faces off against, err, “middleweight champion”Chael P. Sonnen. As we all know, Sonnen was the man who almost took Silva’s title at UFC 117, dismantling the champion through punishing ground and pound and even rocking MMA’s greatest striker on the feet before succumbing to a triangle choke after winning the previous 23 minutes of the fight. Following the fight, it was revealed Silva fought with a badly injured rib and Sonnen had a testosterone to epitestosterone ratio of 16.9 to 1. Regardless, due to Sonnen’s trash talk and how close their last fight was, this fight has the potential to be one of the best fights of the summer.
However, will this be the “biggest rematch in the history of the business,” as Sonnen claims? Maybe, but I doubt it. You could argue Lesnar-Mir II is more likely to be successful financially, or that Liddell-Ortiz II or Liddell-Couture II/III were more culturally significant for a burgeoning sport, but virtually all lacked such a compelling narrative or contained the level of talent featured here. Moreover, in hindsight, they were rather one-sided matchups. Edgar-Maynard II and III were probably of a higher caliber that Silva-Sonnen II will be, simply by virtue of being two of the greatest fights in the history of the sport, but lacked the hype and context that this matchup possesses.
This matchup has the potential to rank alongside Fedor-Nogueira III, which saw the two greatest heavyweights in MMA history – and the two top-ranked heavyweights at that time – fight for the Pride heavyweight title; both fights possess a historic air about them, feature top level talent, and take place within the narrative framework of a rivalry. But I still think the gold standard for a rematch will remain Jackson-Silva II, which had every ingredient you could wish for in a rematch turned up to 11. It had two of the greatest fighters in MMA history, in one of the greatest rivalries in MMA history, in one of the greatest fights in MMA history, culminating in one of the greatest knockouts in MMA history. Suffice it to say, Sonnen-Silva II has a lot to accomplish to validate Sonnen’s comments.
First, it’s important to consider the impact that Silva’s injury had on him; with an injured rib, it became much more difficult for him to stuff takedowns, land punches and utilize the head movement that is so fundamental to his counterstriking strategy. As a result, not only was Sonnen able to take Silva down at will, but he was also able to shock many observers by landing a number of heavy punches on the feet. In this contest, Silva won’t be fighting with an injured rib, so I suspect that Sonnen will not find the same success on the feet as he did in their first encounter. However, Silva may be entering the fight with a knee injury. Although he and Dana White were quick to dispute this, if the rumors are true Silva might find his mobility compromised, and evading takedowns will be difficult for him.
But to be honest, Sonnen could very well find success with his takedowns even if Silva is not injured. Sonnen is a southpaw who favors power double leg takedowns. Anderson is used to fending off single legs from opponents fighting out of an orthodox stance; as his lead leg is closer to their lead leg, it’s the more natural way for his opponent to attempt a takedown. But as Sonnen is a southpaw, his torso is more aligned with Silva’s than most fighters, and this allows him to angle for a double leg, which Silva isn’t as adept at defending. True, he was successful in this regard against Yushin Okami, but Sonnen is a more powerful and tenacious wrestler. Injuries or otherwise, Sonnen can get Silva on his back.
But it’s not going to be that simple. To do so, Sonnen still needs to get in range and that means getting in the Spider’s comfort zone. Silva is more than capable of dismantling Sonnen on the feet, but there are other dangers than merely being humiliated. Silva can use precision jabs to momentarily halt Sonnen’s progress and shift his position so he is no longer vulnerable to a takedown using his extraordinary footwork. From that advantageous position, he can land harder strikes and try to injure Sonnen, though he will probably avoid leg kicks to prevent Sonnen grabbing a hold of his leg and forcing him to the mat. If he manages to discourage Sonnen’s offensive efforts – no easy task – the Spider will win handily.
Even if Sonnen manages to take Silva down, what then? Sure, he’ll be able to land some ground and pound, but Silva’s guard will be much more efficient now that he won’t be dealing with an injured rib. The odds are that Sonnen will not be able to replicate the amount of damage he was able to do to Silva the first time around, whereas Silva will be even more capable of submitting Sonnen than he was during their last matchup. You can make all you like of Chael training with Vinny Magalhaes, but it would be as foolish to assume that a career-long flaw in Sonnen’s game will be corrected over the course of a few months as it would to assume Dana White will grow hair tomorrow.
Best case scenario, this fight is a competitive, back and forth affair that lives up to the hype and helps maintain the attention of old fans and grab new ones while the UFC undergoes its painful expansion process. If that’s the case, this would cement the Sonnen-Silva rivalry as being one of the greatest in the sport’s short history. But if Silva dominates Sonnen to the extent that he manages to utter “Where’s your wrestling now, playboy?”, their last match will be considered more of an aberration than an indication of a truly competitive struggle for supremacy atop the division. I don’t think that will happen, but I do think Silva will win after an early struggle. He won’t knock out Sonnen – or his teeth – but he will knock him down, and finish the fight via rear naked choke.
(“Axe Murdering” — a Wanderlei Silva highlight film by Potato Nation hall-of-famer Perdew.)
By George Shunick
If it wasn’t for the utter disintegration of UFC 149, UFC 147 might be the most disappointing card of the year. Originally supposed to feature the rematch between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen in Brazil, then Vitor Belfort and Wanderlei Silva, we are now stuck with Rich Franklin squaring off against the latter Silva. Of course, it’s cards like this that always end up surprising all the naysayers with copious amounts of glorious violence, so maybe there’s hope after all! OK, so while you’re not going to go out of your way to buy this card any time soon, at least the main event still might be worth pirating online. (Sorry Dana, you’re the one who’s trying to charge $50 for this.)
Now I may be in the minority on this one, but I’m actually more excited for Franklin-Silva than I was for Belfort-Silva. Why? Because it’s not a glorified squash match. Look, I’m a big fan of Wanderlei. I can’t think of something more enjoyable than watching that bloodthirsty sociopath do more damage and evoke more terror in Japan in eight years than Godzilla did in over half a century. But between his once-granite chin being reduced to rubble, his age compromising his speed and cardio — all while retaining the punching technique of a wind turbine — Silva is no longer the force he once was. Against a heavy-handed striker, he’s in trouble. Against a striker of Belfort’s caliber, he’s toast.
Fortunately for Silva, Rich Franklin isn’t quite as dangerous. Despite a permanent role on UFC highlight reels with his knockouts of Nate Quarry and Chuck Liddell, Franklin can no longer be considered one of the top strikers in the middleweight division. Like Silva, he’s alternated wins and losses since their last meeting. Both have suffered a brutal knockout loss since then as well; Franklin to Belfort and Silva to Chris Leben. In fact, Franklin and Silva match up fairly well with each other; both have solid stand-up and sound – if unspectacular – ground games. Much like their previous meeting, this has the potential be a close, dramatic fight.
(“Axe Murdering” — a Wanderlei Silva highlight film by Potato Nation hall-of-famer Perdew.)
By George Shunick
If it wasn’t for the utter disintegration of UFC 149, UFC 147 might be the most disappointing card of the year. Originally supposed to feature the rematch between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen in Brazil, then Vitor Belfort and Wanderlei Silva, we are now stuck with Rich Franklin squaring off against the latter Silva. Of course, it’s cards like this that always end up surprising all the naysayers with copious amounts of glorious violence, so maybe there’s hope after all! OK, so while you’re not going to go out of your way to buy this card any time soon, at least the main event still might be worth pirating online. (Sorry Dana, you’re the one who’s trying to charge $50 for this.)
Now I may be in the minority on this one, but I’m actually more excited for Franklin-Silva than I was for Belfort-Silva. Why? Because it’s not a glorified squash match. Look, I’m a big fan of Wanderlei. I can’t think of something more enjoyable than watching that bloodthirsty sociopath do more damage and evoke more terror in Japan in eight years than Godzilla did in over half a century. But between his once-granite chin being reduced to rubble, his age compromising his speed and cardio — all while retaining the punching technique of a wind turbine — Silva is no longer the force he once was. Against a heavy-handed striker, he’s in trouble. Against a striker of Belfort’s caliber, he’s toast.
Fortunately for Silva, Rich Franklin isn’t quite as dangerous. Despite a permanent role on UFC highlight reels with his knockouts of Nate Quarry and Chuck Liddell, Franklin can no longer be considered one of the top strikers in the middleweight division. Like Silva, he’s alternated wins and losses since their last meeting. Both have suffered a brutal knockout loss since then as well; Franklin to Belfort and Silva to Chris Leben. In fact, Franklin and Silva match up fairly well with each other; both have solid stand-up and sound – if unspectacular – ground games. Much like their previous meeting, this has the potential be a close, dramatic fight.
At UFC 99, Franklin won in large part because he controlled the action. Silva has never been light of foot, and Franklin was able to dictate the distance their exchanges took place in. Franklin was able to slip in and out, landing jabs and crosses and evading Silva’s looping counter-punches. Not only did this allow Franklin to score points, it also helped fatigue Silva. Until the final minute of the second round, Silva’s sole offensive output on the feet had consisted of kicks, largely because he was unable to close the distance that Franklin has established.
When Silva was able to tag Franklin, it was when he moved forward. Silva finally landed two clean counter-hooks on Franklin with roughly 1:10 remaining the second round, and sensing blood, he charged. He landed a few solid right hands, but because he insisted on only throwing hooks, Franklin was able to avoid many of them and stay in the fight and on his feet. In the final round, Wanderlei was able to grab a Thai clinch – a position that both fighters are very familiar with, albeit for completelydisparate reasons – but was too exhausted to maintain it. Wanderlei, much like in the previous round, found some success moving forward at the end, but it was too little too late. Franklin’s takedown in the final minute sealed the win for him.
In all likelihood, this upcoming fight is going to have many similarities to their past one, but with some key differences. Most notably, their last fight (held at a 195-pound catchweight) marked Silva’s first attempt at cutting below 205, and he reportedly had to lose 12 pounds the day before. It clearly affected his conditioning in that bout, and should not prove to be a problem this time around. But it wasn’t the only reason Silva grew tired; Franklin’s strategy of keeping Silva on the outside, swinging and missing with his powerful punches and throwing kicks, was also responsible for wearing Silva down. I doubt Franklin will change his strategy for this fight, and if he executes it, he’s going to win again.
Wanderlei needs to press forward, throw bombs, and hope to either connect with one or secure a Muay Thai plum-clinch. Either way, victory for him comes down to whether or not he will be able to close the distance. The problem for Silva is that this path is fraught with peril; Franklin may not have hands of stone, but he’s shown he has more than enough power to take out a fading star who’s chin isn’t what it once was. (Just ask Liddell.) When Silva wades in with those looping hooks, he invariably gets beaten to the punch. That didn’t matter when he was younger, but it does now.
For this reason, I’m giving the slight edge to Franklin. He doesn’t need to risk as much to put himself in a position to win the fight as Wanderlei does. Silva definitely has the capability to knock Franklin out, but I don’t see him taking a decision over five rounds and I certainly don’t see him submitting Franklin. Franklin has proven he can stay on the outside and pick his shots; he risks getting tagged, but as long as Silva refuses to punch straight, it’s not as big a risk as it should be. He can win a decision, or possibly knock Silva out if he wades in with his hands low. I suspect Silva will have his moments, but will tire trying to catch Franklin over the course of five rounds as “Ace” wins a clear cut decision in a headlining fight that has virtually no implications for the middleweight title picture and lacks a remotely compelling narrative or rivalry.
Actually, I take it back; you shouldn’t even pirate this. (You’re welcome, Dana.)
