With Brendan Schaub riding back-to-back first-round knockout losses against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Ben Rothwell, you’d think the UFC would want to set him up with an opponent who was less likely to leave him staring up at the lights. Bro, not so much. The UFC has confirmed that Schaub will return to the cage on the star-packed UFC on FOX 5: Henderson vs. Diaz card (December 8th, Seattle) against heavyweight knockout artist Lavar Johnson.
Johnson most recently suffered his first loss in the UFC when he was quickly armbarred by Stefan Struve at UFC 146, but that loss followed a pair of stunning first-round knockout victories against Joey Beltran and Pat Barry. While Brendan Schaub may carry a slightly more varied arsenal than Johnson, Schaub’s main weakness (his chin) matches up terribly with Johnson’s main strength (his big-ass fists). And the Hybrid needs to find a solution to that problem, because a third straight KO loss could mean the end of the line for his UFC run.
With Brendan Schaub riding back-to-back first-round knockout losses against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Ben Rothwell, you’d think the UFC would want to set him up with an opponent who was less likely to leave him staring up at the lights. Bro, not so much. The UFC has confirmed that Schaub will return to the cage on the star-packed UFC on FOX 5: Henderson vs. Diaz card (December 8th, Seattle) against heavyweight knockout artist Lavar Johnson.
Johnson most recently suffered his first loss in the UFC when he was quickly armbarred by Stefan Struve at UFC 146, but that loss followed a pair of stunning first-round knockout victories against Joey Beltran and Pat Barry. While Brendan Schaub may carry a slightly more varied arsenal than Johnson, Schaub’s main weakness (his chin) matches up terribly with Johnson’s main strength (his big-ass fists). And the Hybrid needs to find a solution to that problem, because a third straight KO loss could mean the end of the line for his UFC run.
In other UFC on FOX 5 news…
Following his knockout of DaMarques Johnson earlier this month — his first victory in over three years — Mike Swick has signed a new four-fight contract with the UFC, and will return on the 12/8 card against Matt Brown. Once on the verge of dismissal following three straight submission losses in 2010, Brown has clawed his way back to welterweight relevance, and is now on a three-fight winning streak, with victories over Chris Cope, Stephen Thompson, and Luis Ramos. In other words, it’s a pivotal moment in the career comebacks of both fighters, and only one can have a happy ending. So who ya got?
UFC 146’s all-heavyweight lineup promised to deliver the violence, and sweet baby Jesus did it ever. We were treated to five finishes in five fights on the main card alone, including what was initially labeled as a broken arm on Lavar Johnson’s part, as well as the above mutilation of Antonio Silva, which more closely resembles a scene from Saw movie (specifically, the pig soup sequence from the third installment) than anything else. But perhaps the most surprising of suspensions to come as a result of Saturday’s action were that of Cain Velasquez and Jamie Varner, whom, despite earning quick and violent finishes against Silva and Edson Barboza, respectively, could be looking at up to six months out of action pending x-rays of their hands. That’s some shit luck for Velasquez, who Dana White pegged as the probable number one contender (in Ubereem’s absence, of course) following his victory.
Though it appears that “Big” Johnson’s arm was not actually broken in the first round of his PPV lead-off scrap with Stefan Struve, he will need to have his elbow cleared by an orthopedist before he can return to action, and is looking at a minimum suspension of just over a month regardless.
Check out the full list of suspensions after the jump.
UFC 146′s all-heavyweight lineup promised to deliver the violence, and sweet baby Jesus did it ever. We were treated to five finishes in five fights on the main card alone, including what was initially labeled as a broken arm on Lavar Johnson’s part, as well as the above mutilation of Antonio Silva, which more closely resembles a scene from Saw movie (specifically, the pig soup sequence from the third installment) than anything else. But perhaps the most surprising of suspensions to come as a result of Saturday’s action were that of Cain Velasquez and Jamie Varner, whom, despite earning quick and violent finishes against Silva and Edson Barboza, respectively, could be looking at up to six months out of action pending x-rays of their hands. That’s some shit luck for Velasquez, who Dana White pegged as the probable number one contender (in Ubereem’s absence, of course) following his victory.
Though it appears that “Big” Johnson’s arm was not actually broken in the first round of his PPV lead-off scrap with Stefan Struve, he will need to have his elbow cleared by an orthopedist before he can return to action, and is looking at a minimum suspension of just over a month regardless.
Cain Velasquez: Needs X-ray of left hand. If broken, he is suspended until November 20 unless cleared by doctor. Suspended at minimum until June 26 with no contact until June 17
Antonio Silva: Needs X-ray of nose. If broken, he is suspended until November 20 unless cleared by an ear, nose and throat doctor. Suspended at minimum until July 23 with no contact until July 11 for lacerations
Jamie Varner: Needs X-ray of right hand. If broken, he is suspended until November 20 unless cleared by doctor. Suspended at minimum until June 26 with no contact until June 17
Jason Miller: Needs clearance of right thumb and left knee by orthopedist or sports doctor or suspended until November 20. Suspended at minimum until July 11 with no contact until June 26 for tough fight
C.B. Dollaway: Needs X-ray of left thumb. If broken, he is suspended until November 20 unless cleared by doctor. Suspended at minimum until June 26 with no contact until June 17
Jacob Volkmann: Needs clearance of left elbow clearance of right thumb and left knee by orthopedist or suspended until November 20
Frank Mir: Suspended until July 23 with no contact until July 11 for TKO loss
Dave Herman: Suspended until July 23 with no contact until July 11 for TKO loss
Shane Del Rosario: Suspended until July 23 with no contact until July 11 for TKO loss
Duane Ludwig: Suspended until July 23 with no contact until July 11 for TKO loss
Lavar Johnson: Needs evaluation of left elbow by orthopedist. Suspended at minimum until July 11 with no contact until June 26
Edson Barboza: Suspended until July 11 with no contact until June 26 for TKO loss
Stipe Miocic: Suspended until June 26 with no contact until June 17
Darren Elkins: Suspended until June 26 with no contact until June 17 for left ear hematoma
Diego Brandao: Suspended until June 26 with no contact until June 17 for tough fight
Mike Brown: Suspended until June 26 with no contact until June 17 for left forehead laceration
Daniel Pineda: Suspended until June 26 with no contact until June 17 for tough fight
One other interesting thing of note from the aftermath of UFC 146 is that, aside from Mayhem Miller announcing his temporary retirement from the sport, Mike Brown also announced his decision to retire, although he later told Joe Rogan over Twitter that “I’m not 100 percent.” Whether Brown is truly hanging up the gloves or not, he will always hold a place in history as the man to end Urijah Faber’s dominant run as WEC featherweight champion, and defend the belt twice thereafter. Although he never seemed like quite the same fighter after losing his belt to Jose Aldo, Brown currently holds an impressive 26-8 record to his credit should he decide to call it a career, and deserves a great deal of respect for his accomplishments, so make sure to wish him your best on Twitter.
Junior dos Santos is a walking, terrifying public relations smashing machine. Not only did he Babe Ruth it and fulfill his prediction of winning by 2nd round stoppage over former two-time champion Frank Mir Saturday night, but he also provided the best feel-good photo op of the year so far.
Junior trains out of Luis Carlos Dorea’s Champion Boxing gym in Brazil which, in addition to being headquarters for world-class fighters, is home to a vibrant youth boxing program. After training one day, the UFC Primetime cameras caught one of the little tikes hanging asking Junior to take him with him to the states for his title fight.
At the time, Junior said, “we’ll see.” But he ended up bringing the 9 year-old kid and his family to Vegas to watch him win. After beating Mir, he lifted the lucky young fighter onto his shoulders and posed for the cameras along with his coaches.
Dos Santos definitely appears to have the Wanderlei Silva nice guy/maniac fighter balance down pat. Try as I might, that image warms my cynical heart, and I don’t give a damn how orchestrated it may or may not have been. Who doesn’t like watching a kid’s dream come true before their eyes?
Junior dos Santos is a walking, terrifying public relations smashing machine. Not only did he Babe Ruth it and fulfill his prediction of winning by 2nd round stoppage over former two-time champion Frank Mir Saturday night, but he also provided the best feel-good photo op of the year so far.
Junior trains out of Luis Carlos Dorea’s Champion Boxing gym in Brazil which, in addition to being headquarters for world-class fighters, is home to a vibrant youth boxing program. After training one day, the UFC Primetime cameras caught one of the little tikes hanging asking Junior to take him with him to the states for his title fight.
At the time, Junior said, “we’ll see.” But he ended up bringing the 9 year-old kid and his family to Vegas to watch him win. After beating Mir, he lifted the lucky young fighter onto his shoulders and posed for the cameras along with his coaches.
Dos Santos definitely appears to have the Wanderlei Silva nice guy/maniac fighter balance down pat. Try as I might, that image warms my cynical heart, and I don’t give a damn how orchestrated it may or may not have been. Who doesn’t like watching a kid’s dream come true before their eyes?
Mir’s dream of becoming the second ever three-time UFC heavyweight champion came crashing down on him, however, when he could not drag dos Santos down to the mat. Mir eat huge hellacious shots to the dome in the latter part of the first and into the second, until the final hammer fist prompted the ref to step in and stop the action.
It has been easy for this writer to continually underestimate dos Santos in some of his biggest bouts on account of his “only” having his hands. What are the chances, I’ve often found myself thinking, that he can go a whole fight without getting put on his back? Well, so far, those chances are much less likely than the chances that his opponents can go an entire fight without being hit by him.
When dos Santos touches an opponent, they drop. That’s the way it goes, we’ve come to learn.
Who’s next for him? How about a rematch with the man he beat to win the title, Cain Velasquez?
Cain got back on the winning track by dominating and brutalizing Antonio Silva, stopping him in the first round with ground strikes. Cain made Silva bleed his own blood, a lot of it, with elbows and punches, and by the end of the brief bout he looked like he was trying out for a horror flick.
He was trying out for a title shot, and I think he earned it. The only guy I’d rather see get it next, his AKA teammate Daniel Cormier, will be out for a long time with a broken hand.
Yeah, Velasquez vs. dos Santos would be a rematch but so what? Elite fighters often hang around the top of divisions together and, if we’re lucky, we get to see the best of the best go at it over and again.
Cain lost quickly to dos Santos last fall, but before that he was unbeaten and devastated the, at the time, invincible-looking champion Brock Lesnar. Modern-day Antonio Silva only loses to the best guys out there, like Fabricio Werdum, Velasquez and Cormier, and recently dominated Fedor Emelianenko. Taking him out so impressively counts for a lot, and with the timing working out, it is time for dos Santos vs. Velasquez II.
Roy Nelson found the mark with his over hand right early and knocked Dave Herman silly. He went in to add to the punishment on the ground but thankfully the ref got in there fast and stopped it. Only way Nelson could have added to the damage would have been to eat Herman, and we all know he’s watching his boyish figure these days.
Dan Hardy showed why he was still employed after four-straight losses in beating solid veteran Duane Ludwig via first round TKO. Hardy always come in shape, always gives an entertaining fight and has only lost to the best in the welterweight division. It has to feel good for the “Outlaw” to finally get back in the win-column. Now he can go get high as a kite. Hardy joined Nelson as a “knockout of the night,” bonus check recipient.
To pull guard in MMA you have to either be suicidal or a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu boss. Paul Sass and Stefan Struve were the latter in securing submission wins off of their back at UFC 146. They shared “submission of the night,” honors. All bonus winners earned extra $70,000 checks. No “fight of the night” bonuses were given.
Jamie Varner showed why he is a former world champion by beating formerly unbeaten wrecking-ball Edson Barboza via TKO after taking the fight on short notice. Way to make a re-entry to the big leagues, Jamie. Perhaps the biggest underdog of the night, scored the huge upset.
Jason “Mayhem” Miller pleaded with the UFC to give him another fight in the organization after losing badly to Michael Bisping and he got one, against C.B. Dollaway. Miller fought well and lost a close decision to Dollaway. But still, looks like, he gone. Reports are that he pulled a stunt backstage after the fight that sealed his fate. Maybe he ran into Team Cesar Gracie.
One final note, Glover Teixeira looked great in his long-awaited UFC debut. He submitted Kyle Kingsbury with an arm-triangle choke in the first round. Is it too soon to want to see Glover against some of the best in the 205lb division?
The only surprise in the main event at UFC 146 was that Frank Mir was able to survive the first round against Junior Dos Santos. Mir attempted to take Dos Santos to the mat almost.
The only surprise in the main event at UFC 146 was that Frank Mir was able to survive the first round against Junior Dos Santos. Mir attempted to take Dos Santos to the mat almost immediately after the fight began but was never close to succeeding. Dos Santos stuffed the attempt easily and from that point, Mir seemed to resign himself to being unable to ground his opponent and spent the next six minutes playing a dangerous game. He stood in front of Dos Santos without utilizing much motion. He managed to land a few low kicks and touched Dos Santos with his jab but the conclusion of the fight seemed inevitable. Dos Santos was obviously not threatened by Mir’s striking and waited patiently for his opportunity to attack. He landed his first big punch at the end of the first round and followed with a flurry that pushed Mir back against the cage. The fight would have ended there if not for the bell signaling the end of the round. One would think that after feeling Dos Santos’ power, Mir would come out in the second round and desperately try to drag the fight to the ground. Instead, Mir employed the same strategy of standing in front of his opponent throwing low kicks. Predictably, the champion eventually landed a counter right hand that sent Mir reeling. Dos Santos landed a few more punches on the ground and Mir seemed to lose his bearings in the cage as he rolled toward nowhere in particular. Dos Santos used the opportunity to land one last hammer fist before Herb Dean stepped in to stop the fight. He probably could have let it go on longer but the outcome was inevitable and the stoppage saved Mir from suffering the brutal knockout that was clearly on its way. Mir will continue to be a fixture in the UFC heavyweight division but he doesn’t have the tools to be a champion in this era of MMA. Dos Santos will await the UFC’s decision as to who he will fight next. That fight will likely come against either Alistair Overeem after his nine month suspension or Cain Velasquez after his performance in the fight preceding Dos Santos’.
Cain Velasquez earned a gory victory over Antonio Silva with a first round TKO. Silva started the fight with a kick. Velasquez caught it and put Silva on his back. Silva appeared to be defending well until Velasquez slipped an elbow through his guard and opened a huge gushing cut on the bridge of Silva’s nose. The blood squirted from the cut directly into both of Silva’s eyes and made it impossible for him to defend himself. Velasquez took advantage and eventually was able to land several big punches in a row to earn the first round stoppage. This fight will undoubtedly reopen the debate as to the place of elbows on the ground in the sport but the real story is whether this performance was enough to earn Velasquez an immediate title shot rematch against Dos Santos. Alistair Overeem will return from his suspension in nine months and the UFC seems determined to give him the opportunity to fight for its belt despite the fact that Overeem is widely considered to be one the sport’s most blatant PED users. Many people within the sport speculated that a decisive victory by Velasquez would earn him the next title shot ahead of Overeem. The question coming out of this fight is how much of a statement did he make. The elbow that cut Silva was a glancing blow and had it not opened a freakish cut, who knows how the rest of the fight would have progressed. We may have seen a different outcome if Silva hadn’t been blinded by his own blood. But the elbow did cause the cut and Velasquez did exactly what he was supposed to do by seizing the opportunity to finish the fight. The UFC will have a difficult decision to make as to who deserves the next title shot but the one certainty is that the heavyweight division is deeper than ever before and several different interesting matchups are available.
Roy Nelson is a fan favorite for a reason. Actually, for several reasons. Fans love his belly, his beard and his right hand. Against Dave Herman, we got to see all three of them. But only for a short period of time. Nelson dispatched Herman in less than a minute with an overhand right flash knockout. The fight didn’t leave much room for analysis and because it was so short, we didn’t really learn anything about either fighter. Herman is a good fighter and anyone can get caught with a punch. Based on the short amount of time we got to see him fight, he seemed to have a good gameplan of trying to use his length to keep Nelson on the outside. We also didn’t learn anything new about Nelson. He has always had power in his hands and when he lands on the chin, the body to which that chin is attached usually crumples. Every Nelson victory is a victory for the fans who want him to remain in the UFC as long as possible and a knockout like that is the best way to secure his place on the biggest stage.
Stipe Miocic continued to progress through the UFC’s heavyweight division with a second round TKO victory over Shane Del Rosario. Del Rosario won the first round by repeatedly landing heavy kicks to Miocic’s body and legs. Miocic’s only weapon in that first round was his right hand and he was unable to land it cleanly. At the end of the first round, Miocic realized he could use his wrestling to easily put Del Rosario on his back and from that point on, Miocic completely controlled the fight. He took Del Rosario down again early in the second round and earned the victory by pummeling his opponent with hammer fists and elbows from the half guard. Del Rosario was unable to mount any defense and never really attempted to sweep or even regain full guard. If he hopes to compete in the UFC, he will need to put forth a better effort that he showed in this fight as he seemed to stop fighting once Miocic gained top position. For Miocic, this was an improvement over his last performance and he has showed growth in each of his UFC fights thus far. He is ready for a stiffer test and if he continues to improve, he could develop into an interesting presence in the UFC’s heavyweight division.
Going into the main card opener between Lavar Johnson and Stefan Struve, everyone who follows MMA knew that the fight had two possible outcomes. Either Johnson was going to land a punch and knock out Struve or Struve was going to get the fight to the ground and finish with a submission. Johnson did start aggressively and pushed Struve back against the cage with a flurry of punches. He landed one decent right hand but nothing clean enough to drop Struve. Having felt a hint of his opponent’s power, Struve grabbed an overhook and jumped guard. He pulled Johnson to the mat and quickly locked on to an arm bar to win the fight via first round submission. Struve did exactly what he needed to do in this fight and while he didn’t necessarily prove anything or show any growth, he did add a win to his record and earn the right to continue moving forward in the heavyweight division. If Johnson refuses to acknowledge the ground game, he will quickly find his way out of the UFC and back to smaller shows as a part of fights designed to put two big men in a cage and see who falls first. Hopefully, he’ll choose to work on the weak aspects of his game and come back with a skill set that can keep him competing at the highest level.
(Damn, Junior…give away your gameplan much? / Photo courtesy of MMAFighting.com)
After a preliminary card dominated by relatively normal-sized men — borrrrring! — we’ve finally arrived at tonight’s central theme: Big sons-of-bitches. That’s right, UFC 146‘s main card features five consecutive heavyweight fights, most of which look pretty damn entertaining on paper. Can massive underdogFrank Mir pull off Impossible Career Comeback #2, or will he succumb to the buzzsaw-like boxing of Junior Dos Santos, just like so many before him? Can Lavar Johnson score two knockouts in the same month (!), or is he in over his head — figuratively, and otherwise — against Stefan Struve? And does Roy Nelson really think he’s doing himself any favors with that ratty-ass gray beard?
(Damn, Junior…give away your gameplan much? / Photo courtesy of MMAFighting.com)
After a preliminary card dominated by relatively normal-sized men — borrrrring! — we’ve finally arrived at tonight’s central theme: Big sons-of-bitches. That’s right, UFC 146‘s main card features five consecutive heavyweight fights, most of which look pretty damn entertaining on paper. Can massive underdogFrank Mir pull off Impossible Career Comeback #2, or will he succumb to the buzzsaw-like boxing of Junior Dos Santos, just like so many before him? Can Lavar Johnson score two knockouts in the same month (!), or is he in over his head — figuratively, and otherwise — against Stefan Struve? And does Roy Nelson really think he’s doing himself any favors with that ratty-ass gray beard?
Live-blogging the UFC 146 main card for us is Anthony Gannon, who will be stacking round-by-round results after the jump starting at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT. Refresh the page for all the latest, and throw down your thoughts in the comments section. Thanks for being here, guys.
Well, shit. Due to a poorly timed server meltdown, we weren’t able to do the liveblog tonight; our deepest apologies. Hopefully most of you caught the pay-per-view because it was entertaining as hell, and none of the five heavyweight fights made it out of the second round. In short: Junior Dos Santos is still the UFC heavyweight champion, thanks to a dominant striking performance against Frank Mir, and Cain Velasquez made Antonio Silva‘s face look bloodier than anyone’s since Joe Stevenson. The full UFC 146 results are below; we’ll talk more tomorrow.
Main Card
Junior dos Santos def. Frank Mir via TKO, 3:04 of round 2
Cain Velasquez def. Antonio Silva via TKO, 3:36 of round 1
Roy Nelson def. Dave Herman via KO, 0:51 of round 1
Stipe Mio?i? def. Shane del Rosario via TKO, 3:14 of round 2
Stefan Struve def. Lavar Johnson via submission (armbar), 1:05 of round 1
Preliminary Card on FX
Darren Elkins def. Diego Brandao via unanimous decision (29-28 x 3) Jamie Varner def. Edson Barboza via TKO, 3:23 of round 1
C.B. Dollaway def. Jason Miller via unanimous decision, (29-28 x 2, 30-26) Dan Hardy def. Duane Ludwig via KO, 3:51 of round 1
Preliminary Card on Facebook
Paul Sass def. Jacob Volkmann via submission (triangle armbar), 1:54 of round 1
Glover Teixeira def. Kyle Kingsbury via submission (arm-triangle choke), 1:53 of round 1 Mike Brown def. Daniel Pineda via unanimous decision (29-28 x 3)
What better way to kick off the summer this Memorial Day weekend than with the star-studded, all-heavyweight UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Mir. Though Alistair Overeem’s drug test dodging/excuse-making skills weren’t enough to save the original UFC 146 main event, we’re still in for a spectacular heavyweight title tilt with JDS and Frank Mir.
Dos Santos made his UFC debut almost four years ago at UFC 90, and three days before the fight Dana White posted footage of JDS hitting mits on his online video blog. Dos Santos’s hands looked incredible, and suddenly money came pouring in on the heavy underdog to beat Fabricio Werdum, which he did in devastating fashion. Since then, Dos Santos has put together the best resume in UFC Heavyweight history, destroying everyone in his path. So, is Mir going to be just another notch on JDS’s belt, or will JDS have an appointment with the orthopedic surgeon Sunday morning? Join me as I break down each fight on UFC 146’s main card, and don’t forget to come back to CagePotato tomorrow night for our liveblog of the event.
They say that styles make fights, and Saturday night’s heavyweight championship is going to be a clash between two men who are the best in the division at their chosen styles. Junior Dos Santos is so confident in his boxing skills that he says he could hang with the Klitschko brothers with three months’ training, and Frank Mir’s jiu-jitsu is so good that he broke Minotauro Nogueira’s arm after Nogueira had Mir teetering on unconsciousness. Both of these men have a wealth of Octagon experience, but neither man has ever fought into the championship rounds of a fight. That shouldn’t be an issue Saturday night, however, for this fight will probably end well before the final bell.
For Dos Santos, the game plan is simple: keep this fight on the feet. Dos Santos’ belief in his hands has to be at an all-time high, as he’s coming off his knockout of previously undefeated former champion Cain Velasquez in 64 seconds. If JDS can control the Octagon against Mir and use his superb counter-punching, I can see him finishing Mir early. Dos Santos has very quick hands for a heavyweight, and his uppercut is devastating. Just one counter hook or uppercut, and it could be lights out for Mir.
Dos Santos made his UFC debut almost four years ago at UFC 90, and three days before the fight Dana White posted footage of JDS hitting mits on his online video blog. Dos Santos’s hands looked incredible, and suddenly money came pouring in on the heavy underdog to beat Fabricio Werdum, which he did in devastating fashion. Since then, Dos Santos has put together the best resume in UFC Heavyweight history, destroying everyone in his path. So, is Mir going to be just another notch on JDS’s belt, or will JDS have an appointment with the orthopedic surgeon Sunday morning? Join me as I break down each fight on UFC 146′s main card, and don’t forget to come back to CagePotato tomorrow night for our liveblog of the event.
They say that styles make fights, and Saturday night’s heavyweight championship is going to be a clash between two men who are the best in the division at their chosen styles. Junior Dos Santos is so confident in his boxing skills that he says he could hang with the Klitschko brothers with three months’ training, and Frank Mir’s jiu-jitsu is so good that he broke Minotauro Nogueira’s arm after Nogueira had Mir teetering on unconsciousness. Both of these men have a wealth of Octagon experience, but neither man has ever fought into the championship rounds of a fight. That shouldn’t be an issue Saturday night, however, for this fight will probably end well before the final bell.
For Dos Santos, the game plan is simple: keep this fight on the feet. Dos Santos’ belief in his hands has to be at an all-time high, as he’s coming off his knockout of previously undefeated former champion Cain Velasquez in 64 seconds. If JDS can control the Octagon against Mir and use his superb counter-punching, I can see him finishing Mir early. Dos Santos has very quick hands for a heavyweight, and his uppercut is devastating. Just one counter hook or uppercut, and it could be lights out for Mir.
Mir’s striking skills have gotten better in the past few years, as he has outstruck and finished notable strikers Mirko Cro Cop and Chieck Kongo, but Mir would not be wise to try his luck on the feet Saturday night. As Mir has stated, he’s looking to pull guard on Dos Santos, and work off his back to submit him. It has to worry Dos Santos that Mir just snapped the arm of the man who teaches him jiu-jitsu, and I don’t see any circumstance where JDS would voluntarily go to the ground with Mir, even following a knockdown. So, the key to this fight, in my mind, is the clinch game. Mir has shown that he is vulnerable to the uppercut in the clinch, and Dos Santos could easily finish the fight there, but if Mir can control the clinch and get Dos Santos to the ground, it might be time to prep the surgery room for Dos Santos.
Prediction: Dos Santos’ is a great defensive wrestler, and has never been taken to the ground for a significant amount of time. I don’t see Frank Mir being able to change that; JDS will keep this fight standing and finish Mir in the first round with a trademark uppercut.
Cain Velasquez (9-1, 7-1 UFC) vs. Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva (16-3, 0-0 UFC)
This matchup seems tailor-made for Velasquez to rebound following his November loss to Junior Dos Santos. Velasquez was steamrolling the competition before he was caught by a right hand from JDS at UFC on Fox 1. He still remains the best wrestler in the heavyweight division, and even though he weighs only 245 lbs, Velasquez has proven he has no problem handling bigger guys like Silva, who will probably weigh over 275 lbs on Saturday night. Plus, his American Kickboxing Academy teammate Daniel Cormier just demolished Silva last September in the semi-finals of the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix.
Silva looked impressive in his victory over Fedor Emelianenko, but how much of that can be attributed to Fedor’s waning abilities and Silva’s sheer size advantage? Silva just doesn’t have an area of advantage in this fight. Velasquez is very similar in style to Cormier, in that he is a world-class wrestler that can easily take you down and pound on you, and he can also stand in front of you and knock you out. Silva is not going to outwork and outpoint Velasquez, his only shot in this fight is to connect with punches early and get a quick knockout like Junior Dos Santos did. I just don’t think Velasquez will give him the chance.
Prediction: Velasquez keeps the pressure on Silva with takedowns and solid ground and pound, and grinds out a unanimous decision victory, never giving Silva a chance to knock him out.
Dave Herman (21-3, 1-1 UFC) vs. Roy Nelson (16-7, 3-3 UFC)
Both fighters come into this fight following losses in their last outings, Nelson to Fabricio Werdum and Herman to Stefan Struve. It is Nelson, however, who seems to have the advantage in this fight. Nelson has fought much better opponents than Herman, and even knocked out Struve in under a minute when they fought a couple years ago. Nelson has a great right hand, solid takedowns, and the ability to do serious damage on the ground. Herman prefers to stand and strike, and is not afraid to be aggressive with his attacks. Both of these fighters have questionable gas tanks though, and the winner could very well be the man whose cardio holds up over three rounds. Herman’s best chance is to knock out Nelson, but those chances are slim, for Nelson has proven to be very difficult to finish.
Prediction: Roy Nelson bounces back and just like he did to Kimbo, gives Dave Herman the Big Country crucifix en route to a second-round stoppage.
Stipe Miocic (8-0, 2-0 UFC) vs. Shane Del Rosario (11-0, 0-0 UFC)
In their 19 combined fights, only one has gone the distance, and the undefeated Del Rosario has never even seen the third round of a fight. Though he hasn’t fought in over a year, Del Rosario looked impressive in his last fight when he dispatched fellow heavyweight prospect Lavar Johnson in the first round with an armbar. Miocic knocked out undefeated Philip de Fries in less than a minute in his last fight, and he has shown in his two Octagon outings that he has solid takedowns and effective striking. Del Rosario, however, is much better than anyone Miocic has ever fought, and I don’t think Miocic will be able to keep Del Rosario from taking him down and imposing his will.
Prediction: Look for Del Rosario to go for the takedown early, and from there advance his position while delivering lots of damage to Miocic. Miocic will just be another stepping stone for Del Rosario, who will win by first round TKO.
Lavar Johnson (17-5, 2-0 UFC) vs. Stefan Struve (23-5, 7-3 UFC)
This fight could very well be the Fight of the Night on Saturday. After fan-favorite Mark Hunt bowed out due to injury, Johnson stepped into his slot against Struve only three weeks removed from his destruction of Pat Barry at UFC on Fox 3. Both Johnson and Struve love to strike, and we could see lots of big punches traded between these two. The difference in this fight though is the ground game. While Struve has shown he is very adept on the ground, with 15 submission victories in his career, Johnson’s ground game (or lack thereof) was exposed by Pat Barry, who isn’t known for his submission or wrestling skills. Struve does have a susceptible chin however, with all three of his UFC losses coming by first-round knockout. So, if Johnson can land some of those big punches he landed against Barry on Struve, Johnson can easily take this fight. But Struve will likely try to get this fight to the ground, where he can work his submissions on Johnson, who surely didn’t grow a ground game in three weeks.
Prediction: While still very young, Stefan Struve has been somewhat of a heavyweight gatekeeper — and he will slam that gate closed on Johnson Saturday night. Struve by first-round triangle choke.
