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UFC on FX 3 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

McCall vs. Johnson Five years ago, I wasn’t sure whether the UFC audience would ever evolve to the level where a fight between 125 pounders could headline a card. On Friday night, we’ll find out.

McCall vs. Johnson

Five years ago, I wasn’t sure whether the UFC audience would ever evolve to the level where a fight between 125 pounders could headline a card. On Friday night, we’ll find out if we’ve reached that point. This fight has every storyline needed to sell a main event. Demetrius Johnson and Ian McCall are two of the best fighters in the world at their weight. They fought in March on the UFC on FX 2 card and battled to one of the most bizarre results in UFC history. The fight was announced a split decision victory for Johnson but upon reexamination of the cards after the fight, someone was outed as not having the first grade math skills to add up the judges scorecards. The fight had actually been scored a draw. Had everyone’s math skills been in order at the end of the fight, that result would have resulted in a sudden victory fourth round. Instead, we get a rematch to determine who moves on to face Joseph Benavidez for the right to be the first ever 125 pound champion in UFC history. I’m sure the fourth round in March would have been exciting television but three more rounds between these two can’t be considered anything other than a win for the fans.

In so many ways, these fighters are startlingly similar. Both have wrestling backgrounds and are explosive athletes. Both have used that explosive athleticism to develop excellent striking skills. Both move fluidly through transitions in all positions and neither is easy to contain for any period of time. The first fight was so even that it was nearly impossible to score. Johnson had a slight edge in the striking exchanges in the first round but McCall countered with two takedowns. Johnson managed to land a right hand that briefly staggered McCall and on my scorecard, I used that as a tiebreaker to give the first round to Johnson. The second round was where the judging ran into problems. If a 10-10 round was ever fought, that was it. But under the 10 point must system, someone has to win the round. I gave it to Johnson based on literally nothing other than a completely subjective feeling. The third round was the most dominant round for either fighter with McCall taking Johnson’s back and nearly finishing him with ground a pound. And this is where the 10 point must system went from being a problem to basically being a farce. If we follow the system exactly, that was a 10-9 round for McCall and based on my card, Johnson should win the fight. But that’s ridiculous because McCall was infinitely more dominant in the third than Johnson was in the second. So I, being a judging rebel, made the third round a 10-8 round for McCall so that it would be a draw, which is exactly what one of the judges at the event did. And I applaud him for it. Unfortunately, the person adding up his card apparently needs a calculator to handle two digit addition and we now find ourselves in this position.

According to Vegas, Johnson is a -150 favorite at the moment with McCall at +130. I’d like to know how they arrived at those lines. As far as I can see, this is a classic pick ‘em fight. These fighters are absurdly well-rounded with their strengths being in the same areas. I expect to see a similar fight to the one we saw in March. Johnson will be slightly better in the striking exchanges with McCall barely coming out ahead in the grappling. The only way either fighter will be able to gain a clear advantage is if McCall can get Johnson to the ground and somehow keep him there, which seems unlikely. If I start looking deeper for advantages, Matt Hume is one of the best coaches an in MMA. He has an entire three rounds of fight tape to study and develop a gameplan for Johnson to utilize. Team Oyama where McCall trains is a great camp but nobody other than Greg Jackson has the mind for the sport that Matt Hume has. Johnson will absolutely have the perfect strategy going into the fight. Whether or not he can execute it will be determined at fight time. Anyone willing to say that either fighter is a clear favorite didn’t watch the first fight closely enough. The only sure thing is that on Friday night, we will get a winner to face Joseph Benavidez for the title. But don’t be surprised if the outcome leaves fans calling for a trilogy.

Eddie Wineland vs. Scott Jorgensen

Both fighters will be looking to rebound from losses in their last UFC appearance in this battle to see who can earn their way back into title contention. Eddie Wineland has lost his last two fights to Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez while former WEC bantamweight champion Scott Jorgensen lost in his most recent fight against phenom Renan Barao.

Despite back to back losses, Wineland cannot be dismissed. Both of those fights were against the highest level of competition. Faber will be fighting for the interim 135 pound title in his next fight and Benavidez awaits the winner of the main event to determine the 125 pound champion. Wineland was competitive in both fights and while he lost decisively, he was not dominated. He greatly improved his wrestling going into the Faber fight and continued that improvement into the Benavidez fight. However, he was unable to translate his defensive wrestling into offensive attacks. He seemed so focused on sprawling and defending against takedowns that he was not nearly as aggressive with his striking as he had been in previous fights. Wineland is one of the better strikers in the division and needs to let his hands go if he is going to find success against Jorgensen. After his last two performances, he should be confident enough in his defensive wrestling to let his striking game flow knowing that his instincts will allow him to sprawl if Jorgensen shoots. For Wineland to earn the victory, he needs to combine the defensive ability he showed in his recent fights with the offensive ability that he has displayed throughout his career. If he can do that, his opponent could be in for a long night.

Jorgensen is also coming off a loss to a top tier fighter. Renan Barao will be fighting Urijah Faber in the aforementioned interim bantamweight title match. Losing to Barao is nothing to be ashamed of but if Jorgensen expects to get back into title contention, he needs to defeat Wineland. As a former champion, Jorgensen has all the skills to get back to that level and a win on Saturday night would be the first step in that direction. Jorgensen has an excellent collegiate wrestling background and has been successful putting most opponents on their backs although he did struggle with Barao. But the real improvement in his game in recent years has been in his striking and look for him to show off those skills against Wineland. Expect him to be willing to stand with Wineland for as long as he feels comfortable. If he begins to feel threatened or if Wineland starts to seize an advantage, that’s when we could see the takedowns come into play. Jorgensen should have an advantage in that area and if he can’t control the fight on the feet, he should be able to control it on the mat.

Jorgensen is the clear favorite going into this fight at -210 with Wineland at +175. That line seems about right as a victory for Wineland would definitely be an upset. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Wineland will need to keep the fight standing and outstrike Jorgensen, which he is capable of doing. But if he shows the same tentative approach on the feet that he’s showed in recent fights, Jorgensen will pick him apart. And even if he brings his best striking into the cage, Jorgensen should be able to mix in some wrestling to work his way to victory.

UFC on FX 3 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Erick Silva vs. Charlie Brenneman If the main event features two fighters who are startlingly similar, this fight is the exact opposite. Charlie Brenneman and Erick Silva couldn’t be more different in their approaches. Brenneman.

Erick Silva vs. Charlie Brenneman

If the main event features two fighters who are startlingly similar, this fight is the exact opposite. Charlie Brenneman and Erick Silva couldn’t be more different in their approaches. Brenneman is a calculated strategist whose five UFC victories have all come via decision including his latest victory over Daniel Roberts. On the other end of the spectrum, Erick Silva fights with an unbridled aggression that has twice caused him to lose fights due to illegal strikes. This will be a classic test of which fighter can impose his style of fighting on his opponent.

Charlie Brenneman is 5-2 in his UFC career with one of the losses coming to the absurd weight-cutting of Anthony Johnson. He has really only lost once in the UFC to someone who belongs in his weight class and that was to Johnny Hendricks who has currently worked his way into title contention. Brenneman isn’t at that level but a few more wins and the UFC will have to take notice. His style doesn’t make him a fan favorite and that has hindered his marketability. His last fight is a perfect example of that. He thoroughly outclassed Roberts and controlled every aspect of the fight. The outcome was never in doubt as Brenneman dominated position for all fifteen minutes. But in those fifteen minutes, he did little damage despite getting into dominant positions including the mounted crucifix twice. But that style will be his greatest asset against Silva. Brenneman will want to avoid trading on the feet and suck his opponent into a grinding grappling contest. If he allows himself to be drawn into a brawl he could find himself in trouble or even unconscious. But if he can use his striking to set up takedowns and control Silva, he should be able to earn the victory.

Erick Silva is explosive. He has finished his last four opponents in the first round. That includes back to back first minute TKOs in the UFC. The last fight was ruled a DQ due to strikes to the back of the head but even referee Mario Yamasaki admitted that he made the wrong call in that fight. Silva’s gameplan isn’t complicated. He will look to explode on Brenneman the same way he has exploded on all his opponents. An early finish is entirely possible and will probably be his most likely route to victory as Brenneman is a master of grinding opponents into the mat over the full fifteen minutes. That said, Silva will need to wait for the right opportunity to attack. If he attacks recklessly and gets off balance, Brenneman will take advantage and put him on his back. Silva has shown a good submission game in Brazil but he hasn’t had to contend with a fighter who has a base and defense like the one he’ll be facing on Friday. Controlling his explosive aggression and timing his attack properly will be the key for Silva.

Silva is the favorite at -145 with Brenneman at +125. This is a relatively close line for an MMA fight and both fighters have a legitimate path to victory. Silva will look to end the fight early by overwhelming Brenneman with power and explosiveness. Brenneman will look to survive that early onslaught, drag the fight out as long as possible and pull out the victory in the final rounds. History says that the more experienced fighter with better positioning and control is likely to win the fight. But if Silva destroys Brenneman the way he has destroyed his first two opponents, he will be officially announcing his arrival as a factor in the welterweight division.

Josh Neer vs. Mike Pyle

What a great way to start the main card. Neither of these fighters will ever compete for a UFC title but they have both been fixtures in MMA for years with Pyle debuting in 1999 and Neer coming along four years later in 2003. Both have improved immensely in their time in the sport and have consistently provided fans with high level entertaining fights. They are both well-rounded with the ability to finish from any position. Old school fans will be looking forward to this fight as much or more than any other fight on the card aside from the main event.

Mike Pyle is 5-3 in his most recent UFC stint including a TKO victory over Richard Funch in his last appearance. He landed a big right hand followed by a knee that dropped Funch. He then pounced and landed a few more strikes to stop the fight. That kind of finish is unlikely against the absurdly durable Neer. Pyle will more than likely need to beat Neer for fifteen minutes if he wants to earn the victory. He has the stand up game to compete with Neer on the feet and fifteen minutes of striking would be a treat for the fans. But the more likely route to victory would be to put Neer on his back and use grappling to control the fight. Even from there, Neer will still be dangerous and Pyle will need to be wary of submissions. And getting Neer to the mat won’t be easy either. If Pyle can’t get the takedown, look for him to step back and try to win the fight with his kickboxing.

Josh Neer is one of those fighters who seems to be incapable of being in a boring fight. He tries to finish from every position and has the skill set to do so. He was released from the UFC after back to back losses in 2009 but earned his way back in with four consecutive wins in 2011 and has now won back to back UFC fights including an impressive first round submission of Duane Ludwig in January. Ludwig was winning the fight on the feet as would be expected but Neer was able to land a takedown and caught Ludwig in a guillotine as he attempted to get back to a standing position. Expect him to try to keep the fight standing against Kyle as he should have the advantage. But he won’t be afraid to grapple with Pyle and this fight could end up showcasing all aspects of MMA. Neer needs to be careful of spending too much time on his back looking for submissions as the judges will not look favorably on that if the fight goes to a decision. He has the ability to win wherever the fight goes but his most likely road to victory takes place in the striking game.

Pyle comes into this fight as the favorite at -190 with Neer the underdog at +165. Once again, I’m surprised at the gap in these lines as Neer has a legitimate chance to win this fight. Pyle should be able to use his wrestling to get Neer on the ground but whether or not he can keep him there could determine who wins the fight. Neer will look to land damaging shots on the feet and catch a submission if the fight ends up on the mat. If Kyle can avoid those attempts and control the pace of the fight, he can earn the victory. If not, Neer could walk away with another upset.

Countdown to TUF Brazil

This Sunday, here in America, The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil will be debuting on Fuel TV; just two weeks shy of when coaches Wanderlei Silva and Vitor Belfort were scheduled to face off. But instead, for yet the fourth time out of the past six seasons, that fight’s not going to happen (but that’s another article for another day). Now the UFC 147 main event will be Wanderlei Silva versus Rich Franklin. Two future Hall of Famers going to war in a five round Fight of the Night rematch from three years past, sounds pretty great doesn’t it? Until you look at the facts and how this is just the latest in a long line of disappointments and changes made to the upcoming UFC: Brazil show.

In one corner we have TUF: Brazil coach ‘the Axe Murderer’ Wanderlei Silva. Who following his UFC 99 loss to Rich Franklin, announced he would be out of action for a while to undergo facial surgery. A scar tissue removal surgery which he desperately needed to repair an oft-broken nose and avoid being easily cut open for future fights, which in the end resulted in a 30% increase in his oxygen intake for his February 2010 middleweight debut against Michael Bisping. A matchup Silva was the Vegas favorite in, (despite only winning one of his last six fights). And after three well contested rounds, Silva wound up getting the win by unanimous decision (his first victory in nearly two years). Yet soon after he would be break three ribs training for a fight against Yoshiro Akiyama, follow that with knee surgery, and in the end wouldn’t be seen in the octagon again until UFC 132 against Chris Leben. An embarrassing 27 second TKO loss that would leave Dana White stating in his opinion, Wanderlei should hang it up. Yet just four months later Silva was given another chance to prove himself, with a thrilling second round TKO victory over Cung Le earning him his third Fight of the Night honor.

And in the blue corner, ever the company man, Rich ‘Ace’ Franklin has again answered the call and will be returning earlier than expected from shoulder surgery to fill in for yet another injured TUF coach. Ironically Franklin followed his UFC 99 victory with a loss to Vitor Belfort. Before stepping in to coach the last two weeks of The Ultimate Fighter for a released Tito Ortiz and knocking out Chuck Liddell with a broken arm. Before going on to lose by unanimous decision to Forrest Griffin, and being out of action ever since.

All leading Sportsbook to open the odds at
Wanderlei Silva -145
And Rich Franklin + 115

While it is always fun to see two legends slug it out in the octagon, with both fighters past their prime and out of title contention, in the end this bout is pointless.

Which is probably the reason the coaches’ battle was originally scheduled to be the co-main event, underneath the Anderson Silva Middleweight title defense. Call it simple fight hype, or Chael Sonnen’s brilliant marketing, either way his death threats were able to get their fight relocated to Las Vegas at UFC 148. So how do the more than 12 million weekly Brazilians who tuned in to The Ultimate Fighter get rewarded? After that, and moving the show to Belo Horizonte, the UFC further dissed the Brazilian faithful by refusing to bump up Jose Aldo’s title defense two shows, leaving them with only one other top-name fighter Fabricio Werdum to cheer for. Bottom line: no Jose Aldo, no Anderson Silva, no Junior Dos Santos, and neither Nogueira, Brazil deserves better.

By: J A Keenan

TUF 15 Finale Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampann Both fighters in the Ultimate Fighter 15 finale’s main event are coming off of wins in their most recent bouts with Martin Kampmann currently on a two fight win streak.

Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampann

Both fighters in the Ultimate Fighter 15 finale’s main event are coming off of wins in their most recent bouts with Martin Kampmann currently on a two fight win streak while while Jake Ellenberger is riding a six fight win streak after losing his opening appearance in the the UFC. The winner of this fight will establish himself as a title contender in the 170 lb division where Georges St. Pierre awaits interim champion Carlos Condit. Whoever earns the victory on Friday night should be no more than one fight away from a shot at the belt.

Kampmann pulled out a last minute submission via guillotine choke over Thiago Alves in his last appearance in the cage. The fight had been extremely competitive up to that point with Alves having a slight advantage on my scorecard in each of the first two rounds. The third round would have been close as well if not for Kampmann’s timely submission. In his recent fights, the “Hitman” has shown improved wrestling. He was able to avoid Rick Story’s takedowns for the most part at UFC 139 and when he did end up on the ground, he was able to get back to his feet quickly. He even managed to take Story down in that fight. Kampmann will once again be facing an opponent with a strong wrestling background in Ellenberger. I expect Kampann to use his newly improved wrestling to keep the fight standing and use his best weapon, which is his pinpoint Muay Thai striking, to outpoint Ellenberger on the feet. In order to accomplish that goal, Kampmann will need to utilize quick movement to stay away from Ellenberger’s power and land quick combinations. If he can time Ellenberger’s powerful right hand, he might be able to find the range for counter striking. But all of that will be difficult to accomplish against one of the toughest tests he has faced in his career thus far.

Jake Ellenberger is a world class athlete just now coming into the prime of his career at age twenty seven. He has everything a fighter needs to be title contender in the UFC. He has one punch KO power in both hands. He has a collegiate wrestling background. He trains with a great team. He has plenty of experience. Simply put, this is his moment. A win, especially an impressive one, would give put him right in the middle of the title picture that currently features St. Pierre and Condit as well as Johnny Hendricks after his recent defeat of Josh Koscheck. Ellenberger’s last loss came against Condit in 2009 via split decision and since then, he has reeled off six consecutive wins with his most recent coming against Diego Sanchez in February. Four of those wins came via (T)KO. He has scary power in his hands and over the past year or so, he has evolved from a wrestler with power into an impressively well-rounded mixed martial artist. A lot of fighters have power but Ellenberger has honed his stand-up to a degree where he now has the technical skill to consistently land his power shots. On Saturday, he will face one of the best strikers in the welterweight division. I expect him to stand with Kampmann initially and hope to land a power shot while avoiding his opponent’s combinations. If he begins to consistently lose the exchanges on the feet, look for him to go back to his wrestling and try to put Kampmann on his back. But that won’t be easy as Kampmann is difficult to take down and has an excellent submission game once the fight hits the mat.

Ellenberger is the clear favorite in this fight at -225 with Kampann coming in at +185. I expect this fight to take place mostly on the feet and in theory, that would favor Kampmann who is the more technical striker. The problem with that is that Ellenberger is also a good striker with the power to end the fight instantaneously. Clearly, the oddsmakers give the combination of Ellenberger’s power and his potential to take the fight to the ground and control from top position the advantage in this fight and a (T)KO finish for Ellenberger seems to be the most logical outcome for this fight. But if he can’t find Kampmann’s chin, the “Hitman” could pull off the upset by using his technical Muay Thai game to earn a decision.

By Alan Wells

TUF 15 Finale Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Charles Oliveira vs. Jonathan Brookins In a matchup of fighters trying to establish themselves in the 145 pound division, former Ultimate Fighter winner Jonathan Brookins returns to the octagon to face Brazilian prodigy Charles Oliveira..

Charles Oliveira vs. Jonathan Brookins

In a matchup of fighters trying to establish themselves in the 145 pound division, former Ultimate Fighter winner Jonathan Brookins returns to the octagon to face Brazilian prodigy Charles Oliveira. Both fighters are coming off of rebound victories in their previous appearance with Brookins defeating Vagner Rocha in February and Oliveira defeating Eric Wisely in January.

Brookins is a well rounded fighter who has shown the ability to finish with both strikes and submissions. He seems to lull opponents to sleep with his calm approach and unassuming personality. I would imagine fighters have a difficult time working up any animosity against Brookins who is one of the more humble and peaceful competitors in the UFC. But despite his personality, he has finishing instincts as he showed in his previous fight when he took out Rocha with ground and pound in the first round. Brookins seems to be confident wherever the fight goes so I expect him to stand with Oliveira until he feels threatened. If he starts to lose in the standup game, look for him to try to push Oliveira against the fence and turn the fight into a dirtier game of clinch work and scrambles. Oliveira appears to be the more talented fighter but that hasn’t stopped Brookins in the past and look for him to do whatever he can to take his young opponent out of his gameplan.

Oliveira is one of the most exciting young fighters in the UFC. He burst on to the scene at age 20 with an explosive armbar submission victory over Darren Elkins. After another victory, he lost two out of three fights against title caliber fighters Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone with a no decision against Nik Lentz due to an illegal knee sandwiched in between. I question why the UFC was putting him against that type of competition at age twenty one but it may turn out to be for the best as he has decided to move down to the featherweight division and was dominant in his first fight at that weight against Wisely. He made quick work of his overmatched opponent with a ridiculous calf slicer that most fight fans including myself had never seen used to finish a fight. This fight represents an appropriate step up in competition. He should have the advantage over Brookins wherever the fight goes but he will need to stay tight with his technique to earn the victory. Look for Oliveira to utilize his excellent striking game while being perfectly willing to display his grappling gift should Brookins decide to take the fight in that direction. Either way, Oliveira has the potential to give the fans an explosive finish.

Oliveira is a solid favorite at -200 with Brookins the underdog at +170. Oliveira has the talent advantage everywhere in this fight and I’m actually surprised the line isn’t a little more one-sided but I don’t blame the bookmakers for being wary of underestimating Brookins who has a habit of upsetting more talented opponents. Oliveira should have opportunities early against Brookins but if he doesn’t take advantage or if he gets sloppy or overconfident, Brookins can steal this fight. A longer fight benefits Brookins and if he can turn this into an ugly scrap with lots of close fighting against the cage, he might be able to grind his way to a decision.

By Alan Wells

UFC 146 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir On Saturday night, the UFC’s highly anticipated all-heavyweight card arrives headlined by a title fight between champion Junior Dos Santos and challenger Frank Mir. With the unsurprising suspension of.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir

On Saturday night, the UFC’s highly anticipated all-heavyweight card arrives headlined by a title fight between champion Junior Dos Santos and challenger Frank Mir. With the unsurprising suspension of Alistair Overeem for PED use causing major upheaval to the card, Frank Mir steps in to gain another shot at being a UFC champion. Unfortunately for him, he’ll be facing someone who presents a skill set he is ill-equipped to handle.

Junior Dos Santos has been plowing through the UFC’s heavyweight division since his arrival in 2009 reeling off nine straight victories with seven of those victories being finished by KO or TKO and six of those seven finishes coming in the first round. Only the chins of Shane Carwin and Roy Nelson were able to withstand the dynamite in Dos Santos’ hands and he’ll be looking to test Mir’s chin as early as possible. Dos Santos’ strategy isn’t complicated and it doesn’t take an expert to explain it. He has as much power as anyone in the division combined with excellent quickness and agility that allows him to explode into fight finishing combinations. He throws mainly two or three punch combinations and only needs to make contact with one of those punches to earn a victory. His boxing isn’t the most technical in MMA but is incredibly effective and he will be relying on it to defend his championship at UFC 146.

Frank Mir has four wins and two losses in his last six fights with the losses being knockouts suffered at the hands Shane Carwin and Brock Lesnar. In his last fight, he was knocked down by Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera before coming back to finish with one of the most impressive submissions ever in the heavyweight division. That history does not suggest success against a fighter like Dos Santos. He is going to have to find a way to avoid his opponent’s strikes and get the fight to the ground. That will be tough to do because Dos Santos will have the quickness advantage and has shown solid takedown defense in his fights thus far. Mir’s best chance of getting this fight to the ground might be to play possum if Dos Santos lands a glancing blow and try to get the champion to follow him to the ground in an attempt to finish. If Mir can somehow get the fight to the mat, he clearly has the skills to finish and Dos Santos would be wise to avoid that scenario at all costs. Even if he scores a knockdown, Dos Santos should stay on his feet and wait for Mir to get back up before engaging again. Even a stunned Frank Mir has the skills to submit Dos Santos if he decides to play the ground game.

Junior Dos Santos comes into this fight as a huge favorite at -550 with Mir the underdog at +425. That should tell you everything you need to know about this fight. Anything other than a first round knockout by Dos Santos will be a surprise but Frank Mir has surprised us before. While a win does seem unlikely, the chaos of a fight can lead to unexpected situations and if Dos Santos finds himself on the mat with Frank Mir, this fight will get interesting instantaneously. But if it stays on the feet, Dos Santos should be able to finish his opponent and retain the championship.

Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva

In a matchup of fighters trying to rebound from a loss, former UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez takes on Strikeforce import Antonio Silva. After losing the belt in his last fight, Velasquez will be looking to take the first step toward earning the opportunity to win back his belt by defeating a tough opponent in Silva.

Silva has made a career of being one of the best heavyweights in the world who hasn’t been tested by top competition. He has impressive victories on his resume over legends Andre Arlovski and Fedor Emelianenko but both of those victories came when those fighters were clearly out of their prime. He has three wins and two losses in his last five fights with the two losses coming against Fabricio Werdum and Daniel Cormier. Based on his recent history, Silva appears to be a UFC caliber heavyweight who will struggle against the top tier of the division. But he will have a huge opportunity to prove that perception wrong when he gets the chance to fight former champion Cain Velasquez on Saturday night. With all the shuffling following Overeem’s PED suspension, Silva has moved up the card and is now preparing for the biggest fight of his career. A win over Velasquez would propel him immediately into title contention. If he wants to do that, he is going to need to keep the fight standing and hope to outstrike the former champion. Velasquez has shown a solid chin in his career but Silva has the power to test it and even finish the fight if he gets the opportunity. But while looking to strike, Silva will have to defend against some of the best takedowns in the division and that is where he is likely to struggle.

Velasquez will likely employ the strategy that won him the belt and try to put Silva on his back early and often. From there, he will look to land his unique style of ground and pound. Having already felt the belt around his waist, Velasquez will be eager to get back to the pinnacle of the sport and he will come out motivated to prove that he deserves that opportunity sooner rather than later. Before being stopped by Dos Santos in his last fight, Velasquez had run through the UFC heavyweight division beating all seven of his opponents with six of those wins coming by TKO or KO. He might not be able to finish Silva within the three rounds allotted for the fight but if he sticks to his gameplan, a definitive decision is well within his reach. The only danger he faces in this fight is if he gets caught with a big punch from Silva or somehow ends up on his back with Silva on top. But based on the significant wrestling advantage Velasquez holds going into this fight, that scenario seems highly unlikely.

As expected, Velasquez is a heavy favorite going into the fight at -400 with Silva coming in at +325. Silva will be looking to land one big punch or find his way into top position somehow and land big strikes from there in order to pull off the upset. The more likely outcome is that Velasquez controls the fight on the feet, puts Silva on his back and grinds his way to a victory. The length of the fight is likely to depend on how long Silva can withstand the onslaught he’ll face once he ends up on his back. But if Silva can put his huge right hand on the former champion’s chin, anything can happen.