Tag: UFC betting advice

Gambling Addiction Enabler Head-To-Head: April Edition


(Pictured above: A perfect example of the Easy Money/KILL IT WITH FIRE dichotomy of MMA gambling.)

With the UFC alone churning out an event a week nowadays, there has never been a better time to be an MMA fan with a crippling gambling addiction. But being that we have neither the time nor the patience to dedicate an entire article to the moneymaking opportunities present in Richard Walsh vs. Chris Indich (<—actual fight happening this week), we’ve instead rounded up our two most compulsive gamblers, staff writers Jared Jones and Seth Falvo, and had them highlight the best fights to bet on this month, “versus” style, in a revamped version of the gambling addiction enabler you all know and love. Enjoy.

The Main Events
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 16): Tim Kennedy (+155) vs. Michael Bisping (-175)

Seth: You really have to love the irony here: Jake Shields was released from the UFC because he’ll never be a contender. The next four guys to headline UFC cards? Big Nog, Roy Nelson, Tim Kennedy and Michael Bisping. Oh man, that’s good stuff.

Anyways, Bisping shall take the unanimous decision. There shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

Jared: Ugh, another Michael Bisping fight featuring a heated build-up that is all but guaranteed to underwhelm once the actual cage door closes. I hate to agree with my fellow staffer, for he is a contemptuous scoundrel of the worst nature, but Bisping should use his length and endless gastank to jab and jog his way to another UD here. Kennedy may have been able to KO Rafael Natal (on few days notice) in front of his fellow rangers, but this fight should go down in incredibly similar fashion to his fight with Luke Rockhold, with Kennedy unable to secure a takedown and coming up short on the majority of his punches.

Bisping is being slightly undervalued here in my opinion, and at his current return is good enough to make a parlay. What? PATRIOTISM HAS NO PLACE IN THE GAMBLING SPECTRUM.


(Pictured above: A perfect example of the Easy Money/KILL IT WITH FIRE dichotomy of MMA gambling.)

With the UFC alone churning out an event a week nowadays, there has never been a better time to be an MMA fan with a crippling gambling addiction. But being that we have neither the time nor the patience to dedicate an entire article to the moneymaking opportunities present in Richard Walsh vs. Chris Indich (<—actual fight happening this week), we’ve instead rounded up our two most compulsive gamblers, staff writers Jared Jones and Seth Falvo, and had them highlight the best fights to bet on this month, “versus” style, in a revamped version of the gambling addiction enabler you all know and love. Enjoy.

The Main Events
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 16): Tim Kennedy (+155) vs. Michael Bisping (-175)

Seth: You really have to love the irony here: Jake Shields was released from the UFC because he’ll never be a contender. The next four guys to headline UFC cards? Big Nog, Roy Nelson, Tim Kennedy and Michael Bisping. Oh man, that’s good stuff.

Anyways, Bisping shall take the unanimous decision. There shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

Jared: Ugh, another Michael Bisping fight featuring a heated build-up that is all but guaranteed to underwhelm once the actual cage door closes. I hate to agree with my fellow staffer, for he is a contemptuous scoundrel of the worst nature, but Bisping should use his length and endless gastank to jab and jog his way to another UD here. Kennedy may have been able to KO Rafael Natal (on few days notice) in front of his fellow rangers, but this fight should go down in incredibly similar fashion to his fight with Luke Rockhold, with Kennedy unable to secure a takedown and coming up short on the majority of his punches.

Bisping is being slightly undervalued here in my opinion, and at his current return is good enough to make a parlay. What? PATRIOTISM HAS NO PLACE IN THE GAMBLING SPECTRUM.

UFC on Fox 11 (April 19): Fabricio Werdum (+170) vs. Travis Browne (-200)

Jared: It’s getting more and more difficult to bet against Browne at this point in his career. The man is coming off back-to-back-to-back Knockout of the Nights, each one more violent than the last, and has twice shown that he can finish a fight while fending off a takedown. He’s also never been submitted. Werdum’s striking is ever-improving, sure, but his only chance here is to get this thing to the ground early and hope that doesn’t wake up dead whilst attempting to do so. I wouldn’t suggest a straight bet here, but the +100 prop that Browne wins inside the distance is a solid gamble.

Seth: You know, I really have to disagree/agree with Jared here: Fabricio Werdum has been on top of his game since returning to the UFC and he should OH MY GOD THAT MAN IS DEAD! TRAVIS BROWNE IS THE FUTURE, I SAYS!”

UFC 172 (April 26): Glover Teixeira (+450) vs. Jon Jones (-600)

Seth: I’m putting this fight in “Stay the Hell Away From” territory, out of sheer principle. Teixeira is a beast, there’s no question about that. But after watching him get rocked by Fabio Maldonado during the first round of that massacre, I can’t in good conscience tell you guys to bet money on him being the guy to defeat Jon Jones. As for betting on Jones? If I advised you to place a bet that would pay you $1.60 for every ten bucks you wagered, I’d never be able to drink an EXTREME SPORTS ENERGY DRINK!!!1!one!!1! again without feeling like a fraud.

Look, if you really want to bet on this fight, the under on the prop that this fight lasts three and a half rounds (currently sitting at -155) is the way to go. I’d be surprised if this one makes it out of the first round.

Jared: Not only was Teixeira rocked by Fabio Maldonado, he was rocked by Ryan Bader, a.k.a the guy who never even touched Jon Jones in their fight at UFC 126 a.k.a Tito Ortiz‘s last victory. Teixeira hits hard, but so does Alexander Gustafsson, and the Brazilian is way too flat-footed to keep up with the champ. That said, I like the +255 prop that “Bones” wins by five round decision. Why? Because Jon Jones is easily ten times more arrogant than Anderson Silva ever was (I blame the surname), and it’s only a matter of time before he has his UFC 97/UFC 112 moment.

Other Fights Worth Investing In
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 26): Sam Stout (-115) vs. KJ Noons (-105)
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 26): Sarah Kaufman (-240) vs. Leslie Smith (+200)
UFC 172 (April 26): Anthony Johnson (+160) vs. Phil Davis (-185)
UFC 172 (April 26): Tim Elliott (+305) vs. Joseph Benavidez (-365)

Seth: Call me crazy, but Sam Stout at -115 against KJ Noons is a downright steal, and even though their first contest was close, I fully expect Sarah Kaufman to walk away victorious against Leslie Smith again. You may want to lock in Phil Davis at -185, because I sincerely doubt he’s staying under -200 by the time fight week comes around (I’m also pretty confident he’ll win, in case it isn’t obvious). Benavidez at -365 is barely worth the risk as a parlay addition, so go ahead and lock that up before it spirals toward -500 territory.

Jared: Sam Stout couldn’t finish a Cody McKenzie in basketball shorts who might’ve been drunk at the time and has gone win-loss since 2012. Noons to win via superior boxing. And as far as parlay bets go, it would be wise to lock down Mitch Gagnon at -285 over Tim Gorman, as it’s arguably the easiest money on the TUF Nations card.

Honestly, one of the best lines I’ve seen out there is Dustin Kimura vs. George Roop-JUST HEAR ME OUT FOR A SECOND. Roop may be one of the most inconsistent fighters in the UFC, but when he’s on, he’s on. Listed as just a -120 favorite over Kimura, an up-and-comer with decent submission skills and an unpolished striking game, a small bet on a veteran like Roop wouldn’t be the dumbest thing you could ever do. I know, I’ll see myself out.

The Good Dogs
UFC 172 (April 26): Tim Boetsch (+650) vs. Luke Rockhold (-1000)

True story: I made $80 betting on a fighter I’ve never heard of during UFC Fight Night 38. I knew absolutely nothing about Thiago Santos, other than he was a +800 underdog (?!) against -700 favorite (?!?!) Ronny Markes (?!?!?!). “There are very few fighters who should ever be -700 favorites in the UFC,” I thought before betting ten bucks on Santos. “Ronny Markes sure as hell isn’t one of them.”

I’m using the exact same school of thought here by advising you to bet on Tim Boetsch. Luke Rockhold at -1000 is ri-goddamn-diculous.

Jared: I wholeheartedly agree with your logic here, as you’d think Rockhold was fighting a UFC newb specializing in R.I.P, not a legitimate veteran who is 6-3 in his past 9 UFC contests, based on that absolutely insane line. Tim Boetsch has shown in the past that he can pull victory from the jaws of defeat, and while I think Rockhold holds an advantage in pretty much every conceivable category here, there’s no way I’d pass up a 5 dollar wager on a gritty sumbitch like Boetsch to make 32ish back.

Stay the Hell Away From
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 16): Kyle Noke (-105) vs. Patrick Cote (-115)
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 16): Mark Bocek (-485) vs. Mike de la Torre (+350)

Seth: I can’t think of a single reason why Mike de la Torre has a chance at winning this fight, but then again, I also can’t think of a single reason why Mark Bocek is at -495 BOOKIES WHAT ARE YOU DOING THIS ISN’T FUNNY. As for the co-main event that at least seven people are talking about? I’ll probably make a prediction for that fight by flipping a coin while they’re touching gloves before the start of round one. Just sit these two out.

Jared: Your lack of respect for Canada’s first Jiu Jitsu black belt is upsetting, to say the least. A quick look over Bocek’s record reveals that his only losses in the past 4 years have come to top contenders and future champions, and all by way of decision. Throw in the fact that he’s facing a late-replacement opponent, a UFC newcomer, nicknamed “El Cucuy,” and you’ve got all the justification for that line you will ever need.

And that co-main event you speak of? Noke’s to lose, in my opinion. Patrick Cote may have been a one-time title challenger at 185, but his only win at welterweight was a squeaker over Bobby Voelker back in March of 2013. While Noke has been on the shelf for even longer than his Canadian counterpart, I fully expect him to utilize his long jab and mix in some takedowns en route to a UD victory.

Seth: So you’d place a straight bet on him to win?

Jared: Fuck no!

Suggested Stakes for a $50 Wager
Seth: $20 on Bisping+Stout+Kaufman parlay
$20 on Davis+Benavidez parlay (yes, you should lock up those odds now)
$10 on Tim Boetsch

Jared: $20 on a Bisping+Kaufman+Gagnon
$20 on Davis+Benavidez+Miller
$5 on “The Barbarian”
$5 on a mega-super-buster parlay of Bisping+Kaufman+Gagnon+Noons+Roop

Ben vs. Seth: UFC Fight Night 29 Edition

You know how broken-down, piece-of-shit houses are often advertised as “handyman’s specials“? Well, tomorrow’s UFC Fight Night 29 event in Barueri is a “grappler’s wet dream,” headlined by two welterweights known for bringing it to the mat and keeping it there for AS LONG AS IT TAKES!!! (Just trying to stay positive here, guys.) Non-Baruerians can watch the action on FOX Sports 1, and we’ll be livebogging the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT.

To keep you current on all the important themes surrounding “Maia vs. Shields,” it’s time for CagePotato founding editor Ben Goldstein and staff writer Seth Falvo to engage in some spirited debate. So how will the main event play out? What’s the best way to make money off the fights? Which fighter on the card is talented enough to be a future Bellator tournament semi-finalist? And which funny GIF will show up at the end of this post? Read on, and please toss your own opinions in the comments section.

Will Demian Maia‘s main event fight against Jake Shields go any differently than his last win against Jon Fitch? And are you already sold on Maia as a future welterweight title contender?

BG: Not all boring grapplers are the same. There can be subtle differences between boring grapplers. Jon Fitch is a guy whose single-minded focus is to take you down and lay on you until the fight ends. Jake Shields will take you down and try to submit you first, and if that’s not working out, then he’ll lay on you until the fight ends.

Here’s another difference — Fitch seems to lose a couple belt-ranks when his opponent manages to scramble onto his back. (Maia and BJ Penn were both able to hang out in back control for long stretches against Fitch, who defended himself well against rear-naked chokes, but was otherwise stuck in position.) Shields tends to be a little more active on the mat than Fitch both offensively and defensively, and unlike Fitch, Jake Shields has never been submitted in his entire career.

I see two possible outcomes here: 1) Maia and Shields recognize each other’s grappling abilities, and proceed to put on the sloppiest, stupidest kickboxing match in recent UFC history. 2) Shields tries to play jiu-jitsu with Maia, and it doesn’t work out too well for him. Either way, I’ve got the Brazilian by decision. Now would that firmly establish Maia as a title threat? Maybe not. Keep in mind that all of Maia’s opponents during his UFC welterweight run have been wrestlers. Give him the winner of UFC 167’s Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald bout after this one, and we’ll see how he handles himself in the deep end of the pool, against guys with the power to turn him upside-down.

SF: Glad to see I’m not the only person around here who has drank more than enough of the Demian Maia Kool-Aid; I’m already sold on him as a legitimate contender. But are we seriously writing off Jake Shields this easily?

I’m not about to write that Jake Shields has great striking or anything, but for a one-dimensional grappler, his Muay Thai is better than it has any business being. Yeah, I know — that’s like writing that The Wrestling Boot Band weren’t that terrible or that Pepsi Jazz was sort-of drinkable — but I’m not ready to say the same thing about Maia. Point being, if this fight stays on the feet, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Jake Shields walk away victorious. And, who knows, Jake may even violate a CagePotato Ban and win by bringing back the old Jake Shields tomorrow night. Anything can happen in a cage fight, bro.

Looking at the gambling odds for this event, what’s the single smartest wager you could make?

You know how broken-down, piece-of-shit houses are often advertised as “handyman’s specials“? Well, tomorrow’s UFC Fight Night 29 event in Barueri is a “grappler’s wet dream,” headlined by two welterweights known for bringing it to the mat and keeping it there for AS LONG AS IT TAKES!!! (Just trying to stay positive here, guys.) Non-Baruerians can watch the action on FOX Sports 1, and we’ll be livebogging the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT.

To keep you current on all the important themes surrounding “Maia vs. Shields,” it’s time for CagePotato founding editor Ben Goldstein and staff writer Seth Falvo to engage in some spirited debate. So how will the main event play out? What’s the best way to make money off the fights? Which fighter on the card is talented enough to be a future Bellator tournament semi-finalist? And which funny GIF will show up at the end of this post? Read on, and please toss your own opinions in the comments section.

Will Demian Maia‘s main event fight against Jake Shields go any differently than his last win against Jon Fitch? And are you already sold on Maia as a future welterweight title contender?

BG: Not all boring grapplers are the same. There can be subtle differences between boring grapplers. Jon Fitch is a guy whose single-minded focus is to take you down and lay on you until the fight ends. Jake Shields will take you down and try to submit you first, and if that’s not working out, then he’ll lay on you until the fight ends.

Here’s another difference — Fitch seems to lose a couple belt-ranks when his opponent manages to scramble onto his back. (Maia and BJ Penn were both able to hang out in back control for long stretches against Fitch, who defended himself well against rear-naked chokes, but was otherwise stuck in position.) Shields tends to be a little more active on the mat than Fitch both offensively and defensively, and unlike Fitch, Jake Shields has never been submitted in his entire career.

I see two possible outcomes here: 1) Maia and Shields recognize each other’s grappling abilities, and proceed to put on the sloppiest, stupidest kickboxing match in recent UFC history. 2) Shields tries to play jiu-jitsu with Maia, and it doesn’t work out too well for him. Either way, I’ve got the Brazilian by decision. Now would that firmly establish Maia as a title threat? Maybe not. Keep in mind that all of Maia’s opponents during his UFC welterweight run have been wrestlers. Give him the winner of UFC 167’s Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald bout after this one, and we’ll see how he handles himself in the deep end of the pool, against guys with the power to turn him upside-down.

SF: Glad to see I’m not the only person around here who has drank more than enough of the Demian Maia Kool-Aid; I’m already sold on him as a legitimate contender. But are we seriously writing off Jake Shields this easily?

I’m not about to write that Jake Shields has great striking or anything, but for a one-dimensional grappler, his Muay Thai is better than it has any business being. Yeah, I know — that’s like writing that The Wrestling Boot Band weren’t that terrible or that Pepsi Jazz was sort-of drinkable — but I’m not ready to say the same thing about Maia. Point being, if this fight stays on the feet, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Jake Shields walk away victorious. And, who knows, Jake may even violate a CagePotato Ban and win by bringing back the old Jake Shields tomorrow night. Anything can happen in a cage fight, bro.

Looking at the gambling odds for this event, what’s the single smartest wager you could make?

BG: Smartest wager? Buddy, you’re talking to the wrong guy. I’m a sucker for ridiculous underdogs, and my lifetime success rate is currently hovering right above 0%. So before we get into “smart” bets, let me just point out that Dong Hyun Kim is a +220 underdog against Erick Silva, who is a strong favorite here because he’s handsome, I guess? Seriously, DHK wrestle-fuck all day.

Now, if you’re looking for a bet that’s fiscally sound but feels risky enough to give you that adrenaline rush of actual, degenerate gambling, I like to go with the old two-fight parlay: Pick two favorites who you feel comfortable with, and stack ‘em together. Give me TJ Dillashaw from the currently-unstoppable Team Alpha Male crew, who’s sitting at -225 against Raphael Assuncao, and the aforementioned Demian Maia, who’s listed around -270. A $10 parlay bet at BetUS returns $9.23 in profit if they both win — damn-near even money for a damn-near sure thing.

SF: What lovely, practical advice you’ve just given out, Ben. Now, if you’re done being intelligent and placing sensible bets, your majesty, I have a mortgage payment that I’d like to throw away on grown men punching each other.

Jake Shields is just underrated enough to be an attractive option at +210, so I’ll gladly be a total contrarian asshole and include him in my parlay, thank you very much. The other guy in my parlay? Allan freakin’ Patrick. I’ve never seen him fight before, but he’s undefeated, he’s Brazilian, and his opponent can best be described as “Some Guy, whatever, fuck you.” All of this makes him the perfect, yet incredibly rare combination of “totally safe bet” and “complete shot in the dark.” The $32.92 that my ten bucks would make off of this parlay certainly helps his case, too. Hell, something tells me that I’d have a crippling gambling addiction if I didn’t place my next few paychecks on this…

Which fighter is most likely to show up in Bellator after this event?

SF: My gut instinct is to take the easy route, pick Thiago Silva, and throw in a semi-related GIF at some point, as is tradition. I’m sure if I spent some time researching statistics or finding out if Facebook preliminaries are still a thing, I’d have a different opinion. But I didn’t earn the reputation of “talentless hack” by doing that stuff, and if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, so Thiago Silva it is

Silva is dangerously deep into Fitch/Okami territory. He’s talented enough to be a perennial “Top 10″ guy, but not enough to actually hold a belt — and he comes with a much heftier price tag than the other gatekeepers on the roster. Sure, his fan-friendly style would be an incentive to keep him around, if it weren’t for how disturbingly often the guy shoots himself in the foot (figuratively speaking [for now]). Another loss/failed drug test for Thiago Silva, and he may very well find himself under the bright lights of Viacom MMA.

BG: You’re assuming that Thiago Silva will lose to Matt Hamill, a guy with very little to offer in the year 2013, who unwisely came out of a very wise retirement and who hasn’t looked impressive since he KO’d Mark Munoz four and a half years ago. I say Silva wins that fight, so screw you.

Let’s be real: Fabio Maldonado vs. Joey Beltran will decide the unofficial winner of the Season Nine Bellator Light-Heavyweight Tournament. It’s perfect. They’re both sluggers with losing records in the UFC. You’ve heard of them, but you don’t particularly care about them. One of them is a disgraced steroid cheat. And Bellator’s light-heavyweight division is even shallower than the rest of their shallow divisions, so they could use the warm bodies.

Maldonado vs. Beltran is a classic matchup of a technical boxer vs. a let-me-bang-bro brawler, and I see “The Mexicutioner” losing a unanimous decision after being picked apart over three rounds. He will be fired by the UFC on Monday morning, and signed by Bellator on Wednesday. He will eventually be TKO’d by Attila Vegh, then test positive for steroids again and retire for three months before showing up in XARM. Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 presidential election, but it’s a close one. There’s a recount, and hostilities between the two major U.S. political parties grow even deeper and more overt. A civil war breaks out. The nuclear silos in Iowa self-destruct. Eventually, what’s left of the United States falls under the control of a shadowy dictator known only as “The Beekeeper.” Dana White dies peacefully in his sleep at the age of 112.

Thiago Silva vs. Matt Hamill…is this matchup depressing to anybody else, or is it just me?

SF: That GIF I owe you guys? Yeah, I figured I’d sit on it until I was asked a question that made me feel completely empty inside. So, you know…

BG: Basically, we’ve got a stoner and a deaf retiree trying to beat the shit out of each other in front of a bunch of unwashed foreigners. I know it sounds like the premise of a new Seth MacFarlane sitcom, but this is an actual UFC main card fight. Play us off, Morgan…

Gambling Addiction Enabler: The Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale Edition

On paper, this Saturday’s TUF 17 Finale card is dominated by wide mismatches. But which fights will actually be blowouts, and which ones will end in profitable upsets? Check out the betting lines below (via bestfightodds.com) and let’s see if we can win some cash off this thing.

MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)
Urijah Faber (-435) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+375)
Uriah Hall (-309) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+325)
Cat Zingano (-115) vs. Miesha Tate (+106)
Travis Browne (-250) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+240)
Robert McDaniel (-166) vs. Gilbert Smith (+155)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 7 p.m. ET)
Josh Samman (-445) vs. Kevin Casey (+370)
Luke Barnatt (-124) vs. Collin Hart (+115)
Jimmy Quinlan (+100) vs. Dylan Andrews (+105)
Clint Hester (-160) vs. Bristol Marunde (+150)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Bart Palaszewski (-160) vs. Cole Miller (+155)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Justin Lawrence (+109)
Maximo Blanco (-200) vs. Sam Sicilia (+195)

If you’re confused about what the numbers mean, read this. Otherwise, let’s proceed…

On paper, this Saturday’s TUF 17 Finale card is dominated by wide mismatches. But which fights will actually be blowouts, and which ones will end in profitable upsets? Check out the betting lines below (via bestfightodds.com) and let’s see if we can win some cash off this thing.

MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)
Urijah Faber (-435) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+375)
Uriah Hall (-309) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+325)
Cat Zingano (-115) vs. Miesha Tate (+106)
Travis Browne (-250) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+240)
Robert McDaniel (-166) vs. Gilbert Smith (+155)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 7 p.m. ET)
Josh Samman (-445) vs. Kevin Casey (+370)
Luke Barnatt (-124) vs. Collin Hart (+115)
Jimmy Quinlan (+100) vs. Dylan Andrews (+105)
Clint Hester (-160) vs. Bristol Marunde (+150)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Bart Palaszewski (-160) vs. Cole Miller (+155)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Justin Lawrence (+109)
Maximo Blanco (-200) vs. Sam Sicilia (+195)

If you’re confused about what the numbers mean, read this. Otherwise, let’s proceed…

The Main Event: Without disrespecting the man too much, let’s just say that Scott Jorgensen is only in the main event because Urijah Faber needed somebody to fight. A win for Faber is the most likely scenario here…but man, are those odds bloated or what? Keep in mind that Faber has been relatively inconsistent since his WEC heyday, and has been alternating neatly between wins and losses during his UFC career. (Both Faber and Jorgensen are coming off of submission victories, by the way.) At -435, putting money on the California Kid is definitely not worth the risk. On the other hand, a small bet on Jorgensen (+375) might be. Consider it.

The Co-Main Event: I have to admit, the Uriah Hall hype train has swept me off my feet and I like it, baby. I think Hall is a lock against Kelvin Gastelum, and it’s not just because of his explosive power or flashy Tekken-kicks — it’s also his maturity, his confidence, and his experience edge. Of the five opponents on Gastelum’s professional record, only one had a winning record when they fought. Meanwhile, Hall has already been in the cage with UFC-level talents like Chris Weidman and Costa Philippou, and learned valuable lessons from those fights. Gastelum is an incredible raw talent, but he needs seasoning; Hall already has it. Betting on Uriah won’t be profitable, but it’s a fairly safe investment.

The Ladies: It’s somewhat surprising that Cat Zingano — who isn’t a familiar Strikeforce crossover — is a slight favorite over a known quantity like Miesha Tate. Zingano certainly looks the part, and Rose Namajunas told us that she’s a stud wrestler and rapidly improving striker, in addition to her BJJ base. But until Cat experiences her first fight on a big stage against a top talent like Tate, I wouldn’t suggest betting on her. Small money on Miesha is probably the way to go.

Another Good ‘Dog: If Cole Miller (+155) can bring the fight to the ground, Bart Palaszewski is in deep shit. That is all.

Proceed With Caution: Six months ago, Browne vs. Gonzaga would have been a no-brainer. Travis Browne was the nasty up-and-comer, and Gabriel Gonzaga was the irrelevant can-crusher. Then, Browne blew a hammy while firing some ridiculously unnecessary jumping front kicks against Bigfoot Silva, and Gonzaga went and choked out Ben Rothwell — his greatest UFC victory since his infamous head kick knockout of Mirko Cro Cop. So is Napao back? And will Browne keep it simple this time, for God’s sake? My gut tells me that Browne has this in the bag, but my mind tells me to skip it, just in case.

The Official CagePotato “Safe” Parlay: $5 on Faber+Hall+Tate+Barnatt returns a $22.77 profit on BetUS.

The Unofficial CagePotato “So Crazy It Just Might Work?” Parlay: $5 on Jorgensen+Gonzaga+Casey+Marunde+Miller+Sicilia returns a $5,431.40 profit.

UFC on FX 7 Betting Odds: Bisping vs. Belfort and Rothwell vs. Gonzaga Are Dead Even

Unlike the freakish mismatches that plagued last weekend’s Strikeforce show, the odds for this Saturday’s UFC on FX 7: Belfort vs. Bisping event in Sao Paulo suggest a very competitive lineup of fights. In fact, two of the matches are virtually dead even, with a razor-thin margin between the favorite and the underdog. Here are the betting lines for the FX main card, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Michael Bisping (-103) vs. Vitor Belfort (-107): This is about as close as it gets in MMA betting, though Belfort still comes in as a slight favorite. The line reflects the divide among fans on how the fight will play out — either Bisping will outstrike and outhustle the Phenom to a decision victory, or Belfort will maul Bisping in short order, finishing him via punches-to-the-back-of-head TKO. If you’re leaning strongly towards one of those results, feel free to put your money where your mouth is. But keep in mind that the fight is scheduled for five rounds, which certainly gives Bisping the edge if he manages to survive the first ten minutes.

Ben Rothwell (+100) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (-110): Another close call in terms of odds, but I’m not sure that Gonzaga should be the slight favorite here. To me, he hasn’t yet shaken his reputation as a can-crusher, while Rothwell’s most recent appearance against Brendan Schaub proved him to be a ferocious finisher, hard to rattle, and in the best physical shape of his career.

Unlike the freakish mismatches that plagued last weekend’s Strikeforce show, the odds for this Saturday’s UFC on FX 7: Belfort vs. Bisping event in Sao Paulo suggest a very competitive lineup of fights. In fact, two of the matches are virtually dead even, with a razor-thin margin between the favorite and the underdog. Here are the betting lines for the FX main card, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Michael Bisping (-103) vs. Vitor Belfort (-107): This is about as close as it gets in MMA betting, though Belfort still comes in as a slight favorite. The line reflects the divide among fans on how the fight will play out — either Bisping will outstrike and outhustle the Phenom to a decision victory, or Belfort will maul Bisping in short order, finishing him via punches-to-the-back-of-head TKO. If you’re leaning strongly towards one of those results, feel free to put your money where your mouth is. But keep in mind that the fight is scheduled for five rounds, which certainly gives Bisping the edge if he manages to survive the first ten minutes.

Ben Rothwell (+100) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (-110): Another close call in terms of odds, but I’m not sure that Gonzaga should be the slight favorite here. To me, he hasn’t yet shaken his reputation as a can-crusher, while Rothwell’s most recent appearance against Brendan Schaub proved him to be a ferocious finisher, hard to rattle, and in the best physical shape of his career.

C.B. Dollaway (+164) vs. Daniel Sarafian (-165): To refresh your memory, Daniel Sarafian is the TUF Brazil finalist who had to withdraw from his finale fight due to injury. The Sao Paulo native will be making his official UFC debut this weekend, and will face a significant jump in competition against 10-fight UFC veteran CB Dollaway. Sure, Sarafian will have hometown advantage, looked nasty on TUF, and Dollaway has been battling injuries of his own. Nevertheless, Dollaway’s advantage on the mat and experience edge makes the Doberman a worthwhile ‘dog.

Khabib Nurmagomedov (-172) vs. Thiago Tavares (+160): Are you really going to bet against a guy with an 18-0 record? Are you really going to bet against a guy who can pull off a wig like this? Don’t overthink this one.

Official CagePotato Parlay: A $20 wager on Rothwell + Dollaway + Nurmagomedov would earn you a $128.48 profit on BetUS. And if it hits, all we ask is that you buy one of our t-shirts.

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 144 Edition


(In the main event, actor Ryan Reynolds defends his belt against a 100% Asian version of Ben Henderson. Plus, Rampage Jackson faces off against a prime Wes Sims. The referee for this evening will be Dan Miragliotta.)

The UFC’s return to Japan this weekend features plenty of attractive opportunities to earn money without working for it. So where do the edges lie? How much better will the UFC’s Japanese stars look on their home turf? And should you really be betting money with tax season coming up? (Just kidding, that one was a trick question.) Complete UFC 144: Edgar vs. Henderson odds are below, via BestFightOdds, followed by our occasionally-helpful betting advice. Check it out, and be sure to come back to CagePotato Saturday night for our liveblog of the fights, starting with the FX prelims broadcast at 8 p.m. ET.

MAIN CARD
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Ben Henderson (+115)
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-237) vs. Ryan Bader (+220)
Cheick Kongo (-270) vs. Mark Hunt (+270)
Jake Shields (-300) vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (+269)
Yushin Okami (-331) vs. Tim Boetsch (+300)
Hatsu Hioki (-167) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+155)
Anthony Pettis (-220) vs. Joe Lauzon (+220)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX)
Takanori Gomi (-200) vs. Eiji Mitsuoka (+175)
Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto (-288) vs. Vaughan Lee (+275)
Riki Fukuda (-300) vs. Steve Cantwell (+258)
Takeya Mizugaki (-200) vs. Chris Cariaso (+172)

PRELIMINARY BOUT (Facebook)
Tiequan Zhang (-250) vs. Issei Tamura (+250)


(In the main event, actor Ryan Reynolds defends his belt against a 100% Asian version of Ben Henderson. Plus, Rampage Jackson faces off against a prime Wes Sims. The referee for this evening will be Dan Miragliotta.)

The UFC’s return to Japan this weekend features plenty of attractive opportunities to earn money without working for it. So where do the edges lie? How much better will the UFC’s Japanese stars look on their home turf? And should you really be betting money with tax season coming up? (Just kidding, that one was a trick question.) Complete UFC 144: Edgar vs. Henderson odds are below, via BestFightOdds, followed by our occasionally-helpful betting advice. Check it out, and be sure to come back to CagePotato Saturday night for our liveblog of the fights, starting with the FX prelims broadcast at 8 p.m. ET.

MAIN CARD
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Ben Henderson (+115)
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-237) vs. Ryan Bader (+220)
Cheick Kongo (-270) vs. Mark Hunt (+270)
Jake Shields (-300) vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (+269)
Yushin Okami (-331) vs. Tim Boetsch (+300)
Hatsu Hioki (-167) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+155)
Anthony Pettis (-220) vs. Joe Lauzon (+220)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX)
Takanori Gomi (-200) vs. Eiji Mitsuoka (+175)
Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto (-288) vs. Vaughan Lee (+275)
Riki Fukuda (-300) vs. Steve Cantwell (+258)
Takeya Mizugaki (-200) vs. Chris Cariaso (+172)

PRELIMINARY BOUT (Facebook)
Tiequan Zhang (-250) vs. Issei Tamura (+250)

The Main Event: At this point, we shouldn’t have to tell you not to bet against Frankie Edgar when a belt is on the line. The question is, do you put money on him at these odds, or awkwardly back out of the room? I have faith in Edgar’s tenacity, but Henderson has looked so outstanding in his 3-0 UFC stint that at the very least, it’ll be a dogfight decided on the slimmest of margins. I’m not leaving my money in the hands of the judges, and the smartest bet here is no bet at all.

The Co-Main Event: You have to understand how much this fight means to Quinton Jackson. His future is on the line, following his failed title challenge against Jon Jones last September. He’ll be fighting in front of his family, and the Japanese fans that made him a star in the first place. In short, motivation will not be an issue. Meanwhile, Ryan Bader will be stepping into Rampage’s world on Saturday night, and the enormity of the fight and the Saitama Super Arena crowd might be overwhelming. I think this is a favorable matchup for Rampage, as long as he can dodge Bader’s power-punches and stuff most of his takedowns. A modest bet on the favorite makes sense.

The Good ‘Dogs: Didn’t we learn our lesson when Joe Lauzon was marked as a 4-1 underdog against Melvin Guillard? Never sleep on J-Lau. Once again, the oddsmakers have set Joe up as the underdog, even though Pettis hasn’t quite lived up to his hype since coming over to the UFC. As soon as the fight hits the mat, the odds shift dramatically in Lauzon’s favor. I’m also leaning towards Bart Palaszewski over Hatsu Hioki — simply based on their Octagon debuts at UFC 137, in which Bart destroyed Tyson Griffin and Hioki barely got past George Roop. I’d also point out that Kid Yamamoto is a strong favorite only because he’s got home-field advantage; it’s certainly not based on his performance in the UFC.

The Reader-Submitted Parlay: “Shields, Kongo, Edgar pays out 108 on a 50 dollar bet. Simple, easy and a lock.” (Aaron B.)
We say: Shields and Kongo, sure. But again, I’m staying away from wagering on the main event. So how ’bout…

Official CagePotato Parlay: Kongo + Shields + Okami + Zhang. $10 gets you a $17.38 profit. I know, that barely covers bus fare, but you’ll want to play it safe if you’re chasing underdogs with the rest of your money.

Suggested wager for a $50 stake
– $20 on Jackson
– $10 on Lauzon
– $10 on Palaszewski
– $10 on the parlay

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 136 Edition


(Stock-trader vs. Wall Street protester — who ya got? Photo via MMA Mania)

Want to make some real money this weekend? Then come over to my place on Saturday afternoon and be prepared to clean some toilets. Want to make some hypothetical, for-entertainment-purposes-only money this weekend? Then check out the latest UFC 136 betting lines (via BestFightOdds) and read our gambling advice after the jump.

PPV Main Card
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Gray Maynard (+120)
Jose Aldo (-320) vs. Kenny Florian (+301)
Chael Sonnen (-255) vs. Brian Stann (+227)
Nam Phan (-210) vs. Leonard Garcia (+208)
Melvin Guillard (-312) vs. Joe Lauzon (+310)

Spike TV Prelims
Demian Maia (-275) vs. Jorge Santiago (+245)
Anthony Pettis (-277) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+250)

Facebook Prelims
Joey Beltran (+190) vs. Stipe Miocic (-210)
Tiequan Zhang (-120) vs. Darren Elkins (+115)
Aaron Simpson (-313) vs. Eric Schafer (+300)
Steve Cantwell (-135) vs. Mike Massenzio (+130)

We’ll begin…at the beginning:


(Stock-trader vs. Wall Street protester — who ya got? Photo via MMA Mania)

Want to make some real money this weekend? Then come over to my place on Saturday afternoon and be prepared to clean some toilets. Want to make some hypothetical, for-entertainment-purposes-only money this weekend? Then check out the latest UFC 136 betting lines (via BestFightOdds) and read our gambling advice after the jump.

PPV Main Card
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Gray Maynard (+120)
Jose Aldo (-320) vs. Kenny Florian (+301)
Chael Sonnen (-255) vs. Brian Stann (+227)
Nam Phan (-210) vs. Leonard Garcia (+208)
Melvin Guillard (-312) vs. Joe Lauzon (+310)

Spike TV Prelims
Demian Maia (-275) vs. Jorge Santiago (+245)
Anthony Pettis (-277) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+250)

Facebook Prelims
Joey Beltran (+190) vs. Stipe Miocic (-210)
Tiequan Zhang (-120) vs. Darren Elkins (+115)
Aaron Simpson (-313) vs. Eric Schafer (+300)
Steve Cantwell (-135) vs. Mike Massenzio (+130)

We’ll begin…at the beginning:

The Main Event: It’s a line that should really be dead even. But if somebody’s going to be a favorite here, should it really be Frankie Edgar? After all, he couldn’t beat Gray Maynard in either of their two previous meetings. As a slight underdog, Maynard is worth a small investment.

The Other Good ‘Dogs: A lot of them look good, actually. Chael Sonnen is coming off 14 months of controversy and inactivity, so his -255 feels a little inflated, especially against someone as focused and dangerous as Brian Stann. We all know that Leonard Garcia is bulletproof with judges, so if he can swing and grunt his way to the last bell — and not get finished by Phan — he could always end up stealing another one and doubling your money. And if Demian Maia insists on pretending he’s a striker, he’s asking to get laid out by Jorge Santiago.

The Smart Straight-Bet: Blowouts are the name of the game this weekend, with eight of the 11 matchups sitting at 2-to-1 odds or greater. You won’t get rich betting on the stiff favorites, so take a look at Tiequan Zhang at a modest -120 over Darren Elkins. Both guys are just 1-0 at featherweight, but Zhang’s aggressive grappling attack will give the American a heap of problems.

Stay Away From: Joe Lauzon. Yeah, yeah, everybody loves J-Lau, and his skill set is the perfect one to give Guillard trouble. At +310, why not put money on the grappler’s chance, right? Answer: Because Melvin is far too powerful, and he’s a little savvier about avoiding submissions these days. Guillard’s got this one, probably by KO. The same warning applies for Kenny Florian — tripling your cash on the seasoned challenger might be seductive, but you’ll likely be pissing that money away.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Aldo + Guillard + Pettis + Zhang. $20 returns a $57.18 profit. Not risky enough? Okay, $1,000 returns a $2,858 profit. Now we’re talkin’.