(If you haven’t already seen this video of TUF 10 castmember Justin Wren introducing his arm-hair and beard to a village of astounded children in the Congo, watch it, because it’s awesome. Props: Justin Wren on YouTube)
(If you haven’t already seen this video of TUF 10 castmember Justin Wren introducing his arm-hair and beard to a village of astounded children in the Congo, watch it, because it’s awesome. Props: Justin Wren on YouTube)
The UFC Middleweight division has long been ruled by the most feared and successful striker in MMA history, champion Anderson Silva. And perhaps more so than in smaller divisions, striking has been a good predictor of success at Middleweight. So examining this division in core striking performance metrics should provide good insight to how fighters will fare against each other in standup. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end of this post.
But first, let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, and look at the winners and losers.
The Winners
Sniper Award: Two fights into his UFC career, cross-trained Dutchman Michael Kuiper has landed 49% of his power head strikes. We’ll see if he can maintain this in his upcoming matchup with veteran brawler Tom Lawlor in Sweden. Honorable mention must be given to Anderson Silva who has maintained 40% accuracy over his lengthy and dominant career. And also noteworthy is Italian boxer, Alessio Sakara, currently on the bench for health reasons.
Energizer Bunny Award: Strikeforce veteran Roger Gracie has been almost doubling the striking output of opponents on his way to a string of submission wins in typical Gracie fashion. Some grapplers use strikes to set up their mat-work, others don’t. Honorable mentions go to former champ Rich Franklin, and Strikeforce champ and crossover contender Luke Rockhold, who each tend to outpace their opponents by over 80%.
Biggest Ball(s) Award: The UFC record holder for knockdowns is Anderson Silva. He is literally the best in the business at dropping dudes. Statistically, when Silva lands a power head strike, there’s a 27% chance it will result in a knockdown, which is just ridiculous. These skills have won him Knockout of the Night honors seven times in the UFC.
(Click chart for full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)
The UFC Middleweight division has long been ruled by the most feared and successful striker in MMA history, champion Anderson Silva. And perhaps more so than in smaller divisions, striking has been a good predictor of success at Middleweight. So examining this division in core striking performance metrics should provide good insight to how fighters will fare against each other in standup. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end of this post.
But first, let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, and look at the winners and losers.
The Winners
Sniper Award: Two fights into his UFC career, cross-trained Dutchman Michael Kuiper has landed 49% of his power head strikes. We’ll see if he can maintain this in his upcoming matchup with veteran brawler Tom Lawlor in Sweden. Honorable mention must be given to Anderson Silva who has maintained 40% accuracy over his lengthy and dominant career. And also noteworthy is Italian boxer, Alessio Sakara, currently on the bench for health reasons.
Energizer Bunny Award: Strikeforce veteran Roger Gracie has been almost doubling the striking output of opponents on his way to a string of submission wins in typical Gracie fashion. Some grapplers use strikes to set up their mat-work, others don’t. Honorable mentions go to former champ Rich Franklin, and Strikeforce champ and crossover contender Luke Rockhold, who each tend to outpace their opponents by over 80%.
Biggest Ball(s) Award: The UFC record holder for knockdowns is Anderson Silva. He is literally the best in the business at dropping dudes. Statistically, when Silva lands a power head strike, there’s a 27% chance it will result in a knockdown, which is just ridiculous. These skills have won him Knockout of the Night honors seven times in the UFC.
The Losers
Swing and a Miss Award:Jason MacDonald and the aforementioned Roger Gracie only land 10% of their power head strikes. Perhaps that’s ok, since both guys are grappling specialists. It remains to be seen with Gracie, but MacDonald’s lack of standup skills has put him on the wrong end of Knockout of the Night awards in the past.
Starnes Award for Inaction: While Michael Kuiper has been very accurate so far, he also been very much a counter striker. He only had half the total striking output of his opponents to date. Some notable grapplers also show up on the far left, like Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza and Rousimar Palhares. Jacare will have his hand full with the streaking Cypriot, Costa Philippou, while Palhares is still recovering from a beatdown from bomber Hector Lombard.
Smallest Ball(s) Award: Only 12 of the fighters shown have yet to score a knockdown in the UFC. But Jason MacDonald has yet to do so despite over 80 minutes of Octagon time.
Also Noteworthy
The high frequency of the red bubbles shows how successful Southpaws have been in the UFC Middleweight division. Twelve of the 44 fighters shown in the graph are left-handed, about three times the baseline rate for the population at large.
The Middleweights also pack a punch. The fighters shown above have recorded 114 knockdowns in their time in UFC and Strikeforce cages. Amazingly, Anderson Silva owns 17 of those.
Like other divisions, Middleweights show the same tradeoff between volume and accuracy. Counter-strikers tend to be more accurate, but must sacrifice volume while evading opponents, which is dangerous on judges’ cards. And high volume, forward pressing fighters tend not to land with as high accuracy.
This weekend at UFC on Fuel TV 8, watch for a clash between the heavy-handed Hector Lombard, and seasoned counter-striker Yushin Okami. If Lombard wants to test Okami’s chin, he’ll have to improve his movement to cut off the cage and get close. The matchup will certainly have implications on the UFC rankings for the division.
Only two divisions left to look at. Next week we’ll see how Georges St-Pierre stacks up with the rest of UFC Welterweights, and then we’ll look at the big boys.
How the Analysis Works:
In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:
Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs to the head), where the average for UFC Middleweights is about 26%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.
Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.
Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.
The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012, including UFC 155. Some of these fighters competed in other weight classes or at catchweight, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still included and analyzed. Fighters with only one fight or less than 15 minutes of fight time were not included in the graph.
(If James Irvin was a super-hero, his arch-nemesis would be Dr. Fitchtopus. / Photo courtesy of fcfighter.com)
Last week, we described Stefan Struve as “one of the least decision-prone fighters on the UFC roster,” and after he ended yet another fight this weekend before the final bell, we started to wonder — how accurate was that statement, anyway? And who else ranks near the Dutch heavyweight in terms of low decision ratio within the Octagon? So, we assembled a list of the UFC fighters (past and present) who have been least likely to meet the judges; for the purposes of this list, we only considered fighters who have made at least eight UFC appearances.
[Update: After having some knowledge dropped on us by @MMADecisions, we’ve expanded this list beyond a top-ten.]
As it turns out, Struve comes in at #5 among active UFC fighters, and shares the same decision ratio (8.33%) as Royce Gracie. But there are 11 fighters in front of him on the all-time list, led by welterweight crowd-pleaser DaMarques Johnson, cursed sluggerJames Irvin, and UFC pioneer Don Frye, who all managed to make it through 10 UFC appearances without ever going to decision. And now, the leaderboard…
DaMarques Johnson:10 UFC fights, 0 decisions, 0% decision ratio
James Irvin: 10 UFC fights, 0 decisions, 0% decision ratio Don Frye: 10 UFC fights, 0 decisions, 0% decision ratio Drew McFedries: 9 UFC fights, 0 decisions, 0% decision ratio Charles Oliveira:8 UFC fights*, 0 decisions, 0% decision ratio
Ryan Jensen: 8 UFC fights, 0 decisions, 0% decision ratio Jason Lambert: 8 UFC fights, 0 decisions, 0% decision ratio Gary Goodridge: 8 UFC fights, 0 decisions, 0% decision ratio Jason MacDonald: 14 UFC fights, 1 decision, 7.14% decision ratio
(If James Irvin was a super-hero, his arch-nemesis would be Dr. Fitchtopus. / Photo courtesy of fcfighter.com)
Last week, we described Stefan Struve as “one of the least decision-prone fighters on the UFC roster,” and after he ended yet another fight this weekend before the final bell, we started to wonder — how accurate was that statement, anyway? And who else ranks near the Dutch heavyweight in terms of low decision ratio within the Octagon? So, we assembled a list of the UFC fighters (past and present) who have been least likely to meet the judges; for the purposes of this list, we only considered fighters who have made at least eight UFC appearances.
[Update: After having some knowledge dropped on us by @MMADecisions, we’ve expanded this list beyond a top-ten.]
As it turns out, Struve comes in at #5 among active UFC fighters, and shares the same decision ratio (8.33%) as Royce Gracie. But there are 11 fighters in front of him on the all-time list, led by welterweight crowd-pleaser DaMarques Johnson, cursed sluggerJames Irvin, and UFC pioneer Don Frye, who all managed to make it through 10 UFC appearances without ever going to decision. And now, the leaderboard…
DaMarques Johnson:10 UFC fights, 0 decisions, 0% decision ratio
James Irvin: 10 UFC fights, 0 decisions, 0% decision ratio Don Frye: 10 UFC fights, 0 decisions, 0% decision ratio Drew McFedries: 9 UFC fights, 0 decisions, 0% decision ratio Charles Oliveira:8 UFC fights*, 0 decisions, 0% decision ratio
Ryan Jensen: 8 UFC fights, 0 decisions, 0% decision ratio Jason Lambert: 8 UFC fights, 0 decisions, 0% decision ratio Gary Goodridge: 8 UFC fights, 0 decisions, 0% decision ratio Jason MacDonald: 14 UFC fights, 1 decision, 7.14% decision ratio Joe Lauzon: 13 UFC fights, 1 decision, 7.69% decision ratio Gabriel Gonzaga: 13 UFC fights, 1 decision, 7.69% decision ratio Stefan Struve: 12 UFC fights, 1 decision, 8.33% decision ratio Royce Gracie: 12 UFC fights**, 1 decision***, 8.33% decision ratio Frank Mir: 20 UFC fights, 2 decisions, 10% decision ratio Cain Velasquez: 9 UFC fights, 1 decision, 11.11% decision ratio Pat Barry: 9 UFC fights, 1 decision, 11.11% decision ratio Vitor Belfort: 16 UFC fights, 2 decisions, 12.5% decision ratio
* Including his no-contest against Nik Lentz at UFC Live: Kongo vs. Barry.
** Not including his forfeit against Harold Haward at UFC 3.
*** Refers to his default “draw” against Ken Shamrock at UFC 5 that resulted from time running out; judges weren’t used in the UFC until December 1995.
Honorable mention:Frank Trigg never went the distance in seven UFC appearances, but since we’re only including fighters with eight or more fights in the promotion, he falls just short of qualifying.
Keep in mind that this list was thrown together on the fly after about an hour spent on Wikipedia, so if we’re leaving anybody out who should have made the top ten, please correct us in the comments section.
(Stay away from the light, Dustin! Stay away from the light!)
Ladies and gentlemen of the Potato Nation, the end times are upon us. Last night, a quiet, unassuming man named Chan Sung Jung escaped from a remote Korean testing facility and wound up in Fairfax, Virginia. Needing to fulfill certain diversity requirements that had long eluded them, the people of Fairfax embraced and accepted him with open arms, completely unaware that he was in fact patient zero of a zombie-like virus that would spell the untimely demise of the human race. Those ignoramuses.
Before they even knew what had hit them, reports of strange occurrences were popping up from county to county, then state to state. Having caught the latter half of the movie Outbreak on TBS just a few weeks prior, the people of Fairfax knew that they had to capture the source of the disease if they were ever to restore order to the chaos they had created. So they sent forth their bravest virologist, a man by the name of Dustin Poirier, to subdue the host and bring him back for testing. Early reports claimed that “The Diamond” would have little to no trouble accomplishing this feat, as he had successfully extinguished every threat placed before him since joining the Zuffa corporation.
How wrong they were.
For nearly twenty minutes, the two engaged in an all out war of attrition, one that would determine the very fate of mankind. He put up a hell of a fight, but as much as it saddens us to say this, we are officially doomed. Poirier was infected by “The Korean Zombie (virus),” and chances are that you will be soon as well. Early symptoms include raucous use of the phrase, “HOLY SHIT BRO”, an ability to absorb a tremendous amount of punishment, $80,000 cash, drowsiness, and cramps.
(Stay away from the light, Dustin! Stay away from the light!)
Ladies and gentlemen of the Potato Nation, the end times are upon us. Last night, a quiet, unassuming man named Chan Sung Jung escaped from a remote Korean testing facility and wound up in Fairfax, Virginia. Needing to fulfill certain diversity requirements that had long eluded them, the people of Fairfax embraced and accepted him with open arms, completely unaware that he was in fact patient zero of a zombie-like virus that would spell the untimely demise of the human race. Those ignoramuses.
Before they even knew what had hit them, reports of strange occurrences were popping up from county to county, then state to state. Having caught the latter half of the movie Outbreak on TBS just a few weeks prior, the people of Fairfax knew that they had to capture the source of the disease if they were ever to restore order to the chaos they had created. So they sent forth their bravest virologist, a man by the name of Dustin Poirier, to subdue the host and bring him back for testing. Early reports claimed that “The Diamond” would have little to no trouble accomplishing this feat, as he had successfully extinguished every threat placed before him since joining the Zuffa corporation.
How wrong they were.
For nearly twenty minutes, the two engaged in an all out war of attrition, one that would determine the very fate of mankind. He put up a hell of a fight, but as much as it saddens us to say this, we are officially doomed. Poirier was infected by “The Korean Zombie (virus),” and chances are that you will be soon as well. Early symptoms include raucous use of the phrase, “HOLY SHIT BRO”, an ability to absorb a tremendous amount of punishment, $80,000 cash, drowsiness, and cramps.
If you happened to be watching last night’s UFC on FUEL event from a pirated stream or some other medium (because who the hell actually has FUEL), you more than likely experienced many of these symptoms before the main event even began. The same could be said for many of the fighters involved. Just ask Jason “The Mathlete” *snicker* MacDonald, who was so sick with the virus that he slipped into a hallucinogenic state just moments before his fight with Tom Lawlor. Within the opening minute of the very first round, he became so delusional that he mistook the UFC canvas for a Serta mattress and dove headfirst onto it, promptly knocking himself unconscious. When he awoke, his fever had broken, and he could only chuckle at the silly mistake he had made. Lawlor, on the other hand, managed to take home a $40,000 Knockout of the Night award for helping guide this sickly individual to his momentary resting place, living up to the humanitarian reputation he has earned in the UFC.
Signs of the disease were present in Jeremy Stephens and Jeff Hougland in their respective bouts with Donald Cerrone and Yves Jabouin as well. In typical zombie fashion, both men were lit up like the fourth of fucking July for fifteen long minutes, yet could not be put away by their still human counterparts. A tip of the hat is due to their undead corpses. Jabouin opted for a variety of spinning attacks that would make Dennis Siver blush to try and finish the job on Hougland, who only made it out of the fight alive (sort of), thanks to an incredible heart and the, let’s call it timidness, of referee Todd McGovern. Cerrone utilized his reach advantage and a more diverse striking attack to give Stephens fits throughout their fight, putting him in trouble on more than one occasion and slice-n-dicing the ever loving shit out of his face for good measure. When asked to describe his performance afterward, “Lil’ Heathen” proceeded to take a bite out of Jon Anik’s neck and sprint off into the night before he could be put down.
But the virus’ lethargy-induced side effects truly took hold of the audience during the evening’s co-main event, which pitted TUF 7 winner Amir Sadollah against Wanderlei Silva student Jorge Lopez. Although Amir has never been one to get into a barn-burning brawl, even his precision-based offense was a welcome change when having to deal with Lopez’s relentlessly boring “wall-n-stall” takedown attempts. The members of the audience who had not been lulled into a coma…scratch that, every single member of the audience had in fact been lulled into a coma, only to come back as flesh-eating mongoloids hell bent on raping and pillaging anything within arm’s reach. In other words, West Virginians.
Lock your doors. Board up your windows. Put the children to bed and start stockpiling canned foods, because The Korean Zombie virus is coming to your town, probably within the hour. It is relentless, deceivingly strong, and somehow inspiring at the same time, and the only man who can bring an end to this madness is trapped in Canada somewhere.
(I’ll show you Linsanity, you racist sonofabitch!)
Perhaps it’s because we are truly spontaneous creatures at heart, but we are more excited for tomorrow night’s UFC on FUEL broadcast than perhaps any other freecard in as long as we can remember, if only because it gives us an excuse to do something on a Tuesday night that we normally save for the weekends ie. drink, shout at the TV until our ears bleed, and gamble away the money we have yet to even earn. And since we don’t want to be the only MMA fans waiting in line at the soup kitchen come next week, we figured we’d drag you all down with us. Because, honestly, it’s neither as easy or as fun to start a soup fight with the homeless by yourself. Anyway, check out the betting lines below, courtesy of BestFightOdds, and join us after the jump for our more-or-less comprehensible advice.
PRELIMINARY CARD (Fuel.tv, 5:30 p.m. ET / 2:30 p.m. PT) Cody McKenzie (-105) vs. Marcus LeVesseur (-115) Brad Tavares (-175) vs. Dongi Yang (+155)
T.J. Grant (-400) vs. Carlo Prater (+325) Rafael Dos Anjos (-280) vs. Kamal Shalorus (+240)
Jeff Curran (-135) vs. Johnny Eduardo (+115)
Alex Soto (+200) vs. Francisco Rivera (-240)
Thoughts…
(I’ll show you Linsanity, you racist sonofabitch!)
Perhaps it’s because we are truly spontaneous creatures at heart, but we are more excited for tomorrow night’s UFC on FUEL broadcast than perhaps any other freecard in as long as we can remember, if only because it gives us an excuse to do something on a Tuesday night that we normally save for the weekends ie. drink, shout at the TV until our ears bleed, and gamble away the money we have yet to even earn. And since we don’t want to be the only MMA fans waiting in line at the soup kitchen come next week, we figured we’d drag you all down with us. Because, honestly, it’s neither as easy or as fun to start a soup fight with the homeless by yourself. Anyway, check out the betting lines below, courtesy of BestFightOdds, and join us after the jump for our more-or-less comprehensible advice.
PRELIMINARY CARD (Fuel.tv, 5:30 p.m. ET / 2:30 p.m. PT) Cody McKenzie (-105) vs. Marcus LeVesseur (-115) Brad Tavares (-175) vs. Dongi Yang (+155)
T.J. Grant (-400) vs. Carlo Prater (+325) Rafael Dos Anjos (-280) vs. Kamal Shalorus (+240)
Jeff Curran (-135) vs. Johnny Eduardo (+115)
Alex Soto (+200) vs. Francisco Rivera (-240)
The Good Dogs: Sheesh, the betting lines on this card make us yearn for the days of PRIDE freak shows ala Cro Cop vs. Dos Caras Jr, where big risk at least gave us the outside hope of reaping a big reward. Looking over the main card, the only underdog bet that stands out has got to be Jason MacDonald. Though he’s never been one for consistency, and is coming off a submission to strikes loss at the hands of Alan Belcher, the fact that he’s trying to earn a retirement fight at UFC 149 in Canada has to mean something in terms of an X-factor, right? I mean, the man he is fighting came to the weigh-ins dressed as another fighter dressed as a guitar player for Christ’s sake. No self respecting man wants to get his ass kicked by the class clown on his way out the door.
You may be wondering why we’ve kind of brushed off Donald Cerrone vs. Jeremy Stephens, but the fact that Stephens has lost to every single upper echelon fighter he has faced should let you know how we feel about the outcome of that one. We love you, Lil’ Heathen, but we also believe that history tends to repeat itself.
The Easy Bet: Fabio Maldonado. The dude is an absolute beast who will walk through Pokrajac’s punches with a smile on his face, as is his M.O., before delivering a beautiful body shot KO that voids “The Duke’s” bowels upon impact.
Official CagePotato parlay: Poirier + Cerrone + Maldonado + Curran
Suggested stake for a $50 wager
$20 on the parlay
$10 on MacDonald
$5 on McKenzie to keep shit real
$15 on a 12-pack of Budweiser Platinum to make sure it stays that way
(Full press conference video, via YouTube.com/UFC. Man, Nick Ring is like a *god* in that town.)
Today’s UFC press conference in Calgary resulted in a tidal wave of major announcements, highlighted by two title-fight bookings and confirmations of three Canadian events in 2012. Here’s what we’re looking at…
– The middleweight championship rematch between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen will take place at an 80,000-seat soccer stadium in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, not Sao Paulo as originally reported. [Ed. note: R.I.P., Chael.] The exact venue hasn’t been confirmed yet, and the event is expected to take place at UFC 147 on either June 16th or June 23rd. It will be the third time in 10 months that Rio will host a UFC event. We’ll be keeping our eyes out for this guy.
– For the third year in a row, the UFC will hold three events in Canada this year: UFC 149 in Calgary (7/21), UFC 152 in Toronto (9/22), and UFC 154 in Montreal (11/17). No matchups have been scheduled for the Toronto and Montreal shows, although welterweight champ Georges St. Pierre said he’d like to compete at UFC 154 if his knee-surgery recovery allows it.
(Full press conference video, via YouTube.com/UFC. Man, Nick Ring is like a *god* in that town.)
Today’s UFC press conference in Calgary resulted in a tidal wave of major announcements, highlighted by two title-fight bookings and confirmations of three Canadian events in 2012. Here’s what we’re looking at…
– The middleweight championship rematch between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen will take place at an 80,000-seat soccer stadium in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, not Sao Paulo as originally reported. [Ed. note: R.I.P., Chael.] The exact venue hasn’t been confirmed yet, and the event is expected to take place at UFC 147 on either June 16th or June 23rd. It will be the third time in 10 months that Rio will host a UFC event. We’ll be keeping our eyes out for this guy.
– For the third year in a row, the UFC will hold three events in Canada this year: UFC 149 in Calgary (7/21), UFC 152 in Toronto (9/22), and UFC 154 in Montreal (11/17). No matchups have been scheduled for the Toronto and Montreal shows, although welterweight champ Georges St. Pierre said he’d like to compete at UFC 154 if his knee-surgery recovery allows it.
– Jason MacDonald is already scheduled to face Tom Lawlor at UFC on FUEL 3 (May 15th; Fairfax, VA), but the Calgary native hopes to have his UFC retirement fight at UFC 149.
