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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC on FX 4 and UFC 147 Edition

Did that title totally blow your freakin minds?! We know it did, but for those of you who still remain on the planet Earth after reading it, prepare yourselves for a double dose of down and dirty gambling advice. Thanks to a pair of back-to-back cards and an injury curse the likes of which we’ve never seen before, this weekend’s UFC on FX 4 and UFC 147 events have just enough interesting matchups between them to help you prosper during the greatest American depression since the last great American depression, so lets do some (betting) lines!

UFC on FX: Maynard vs. Guida
Gray Maynard (-305) vs. Clay Guida (+275)
Spencer Fisher (+260) vs. Sam Stout (-290)
Brian Ebersole (-240) vs. T.J. Waldburger (+200)
Ross Pearson (-180) vs. Cub Swanson (+165)
Hatsu Hioki (-185) vs. Ricardo Lamas (+155)
C.J. Keith (+225) vs. Ramsey Nijem (-285)
Joey Gambino (-115 ) vs. Steven Siler (-115)
Rick Story (-380) vs. Brock Jardine (+290)
Luis Ramos (+145) vs. Matt Brown (-175)
Chris Camozzi (+175) vs. Nick Catone (-245)
Ricardo Funch (+375) vs. Dan Miller (-515)

UFC 147
Rich Frankin (-170) vs. Wanderlei Silva (+150)
Cezar Ferreira (-260) vs. Sergio Moraes (+200)
Rony Mariano Bezerra (-280) vs. Godofredo de Oliveira (+220)
Mike Russow (+400) vs. Fabricio Werdum (-500)
Yuri Alcantara (+220) vs. Hacran Dias (-280)
(all figures courtesy of BestFightOdds)

Thoughts…

The Main Events: Gentlemen, we’re basically looking at the greatest pair of main events that a fan could ever hope to ask for, and anyone who says otherwise doesn’t know what they’re talking about. You literally could not get us any more amped if you had an eight ball of coke, a pair of disease-free escorts, and the keys to FAO Shwarz on Christmas Eve.

The odds for those events, however, leave us a little less than enthused. Given the outcome of their first fight, combined with the fact that they are basically fighting at the same catchweight as before, it makes sense to see Franklin as a slight favorite. If either man catches the other, there’s a chance that they can finish them, but while Franklin’s chin may not be what it used to, the same goes quadruple over for Wandy. “Ace” was simply dwarfed by Forrest Griffin in his loss at UFC 126, but will have a slight reach and size advantage over “The Axe Murderer” here, so unless Wandy can manage to catch him with something early, look for Franklin to control the distance and get in and out before landing a 1-2 combo that puts Wandy’s lights out late in the second. Whether or not Franklin decides to do so with a broken arm will be up to him.

As for the lightweights, Guida looks pretty good +275, but is facing a hell of a test in Maynard. “The Bully” is both a much more powerful striker and a stronger wrestler, which doesn’t bode well for Guida’s smother heavy offense. But where Guida does hold an edge is in his cardio, which is best described as “Mario with unlimited star power.” If Guida stands any chance of winning this, it will be by dragging Maynard into the latter rounds of this five round affair, as Maynard has shown the tendency to slow as things go on, and somehow grind out a decision over him. We don’t see it happening either.

The Good Dogs: If you read this and Mike Russow’s name immediately popped into your mind, we’d ask you to sit back in your chair, take a moment to assess your life, and then have the nearest person hit you in the face really fuckin’ hard. We don’t care how far back his win streak dates (it’s 2007) or how much punishment he can absorb (lots), if the same Fabricio Werdum that mangled Roy Nelson shows up on Saturday, Russow best pray “Vai Cavalo” pisses dirty afterward, because that is the only way he is walking out of this with any sense of victory. Russow ain’t gonna be able to take Werdum down, he damn sure ain’t gonna submit him, and if he somehow manages to knock Fabricio out, I will allow one of my biggest haters to come to my home and punch me in the stomach on camera. Afterward, I will treat them to a classy seafood dinner (I’m looking at you, Carmen.)

The two best dogs are undoubtedly Ricardo Lamas and T.J. Waldburger. Although Hatsu Hioki looked levels above his UFC debut in his most recent win over Bart Palaszewski, Lamas has looked as good as any featherweight since coming to the UFC, crushing Matt Grice before choking out Cub Swanson. Waldburger, on the other hand, has shown an incredible ability to snatch a submission when the opportunity presents itself. Even though he has looked much more well rounded as of late, Ebersole has shown a weakness in the past for submissions, so a small side bet on either fighter could be worth your time. We don’t know much about the TUF Brazil finalists, being that we could barely keep up with the American version of the show this season, but we do know that the one middleweight finalist remaining, Cezar Ferreira, will be fighting a semifinalist coming in with less than week’s notice in Sergio Moraes, so he’ll likely be walking away with the glass plaque.

The Solid Picks: Say what you want about how his run on TUF 14 ended, but Steve Siler looked absolutely brilliant against Cole Miller at UFC on FX 2, battering the fellow TUF veteran and controlling the fight en route to a UD win. He’s listed as a pick ‘em against the untested and undefeated prospect Joey Gambino, but should be able to handle him. How Matt Brown is only listed as a slight favorite over a guy who was absolutely steamrolled by Erick Silva in his UFC debut is beyond us, but might be due to the fact that well, Silva has dominated all of his opponents thus far. In either case, Brown all the way.

The Trilogy Match: Considering both Spencer Fisher and Sam Stout’s inconsistency problems as of late, perhaps the odds between the two should be a bit closer. Plus, “The King” could be looking at his last fight in the octagon, so you gotta imagine he’s not going to want to leave this one in the hands of the judges. But Fisher has looked incredibly lackluster as of late, and when comparing lackluster to Stout’s simple mediocrity, we’ll take mediocrity every time. Stout by decision.

Official CagePotato parlay: Maynard + Stout + Pearson

Suggested wager for a $50 stake
$25 on the parlay
$10 on a Bezzera + Dias + Franklin parlay
$10 on Lamas
$5 on Wandy for nostalgia’s sake

–J. Jones

UFC 147: Silva vs. Franklin 2 — Main Event Preview & Analysis

(“Axe Murdering” — a Wanderlei Silva highlight film by Potato Nation hall-of-famer Perdew.)

By George Shunick

If it wasn’t for the utter disintegration of UFC 149, UFC 147 might be the most disappointing card of the year. Originally supposed to feature the rematch between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen in Brazil, then Vitor Belfort and Wanderlei Silva, we are now stuck with Rich Franklin squaring off against the latter Silva. Of course, it’s cards like this that always end up surprising all the naysayers with copious amounts of glorious violence, so maybe there’s hope after all! OK, so while you’re not going to go out of your way to buy this card any time soon, at least the main event still might be worth pirating online. (Sorry Dana, you’re the one who’s trying to charge $50 for this.)

Now I may be in the minority on this one, but I’m actually more excited for Franklin-Silva than I was for Belfort-Silva. Why? Because it’s not a glorified squash match. Look, I’m a big fan of Wanderlei. I can’t think of something more enjoyable than watching that bloodthirsty sociopath do more damage and evoke more terror in Japan in eight years than Godzilla did in over half a century. But between his once-granite chin being reduced to rubble, his age compromising his speed and cardio — all while retaining the punching technique of a wind turbine — Silva is no longer the force he once was. Against a heavy-handed striker, he’s in trouble. Against a striker of Belfort’s caliber, he’s toast.

Fortunately for Silva, Rich Franklin isn’t quite as dangerous. Despite a permanent role on UFC highlight reels with his knockouts of Nate Quarry and Chuck Liddell, Franklin can no longer be considered one of the top strikers in the middleweight division. Like Silva, he’s alternated wins and losses since their last meeting. Both have suffered a brutal knockout loss since then as well; Franklin to Belfort and Silva to Chris Leben. In fact, Franklin and Silva match up fairly well with each other; both have solid stand-up and sound – if unspectacular – ground games. Much like their previous meeting, this has the potential be a close, dramatic fight.

(“Axe Murdering” — a Wanderlei Silva highlight film by Potato Nation hall-of-famer Perdew.)

By George Shunick

At UFC 99, Franklin won in large part because he controlled the action. Silva has never been light of foot, and Franklin was able to dictate the distance their exchanges took place in. Franklin was able to slip in and out, landing jabs and crosses and evading Silva’s looping counter-punches. Not only did this allow Franklin to score points, it also helped fatigue Silva. Until the final minute of the second round, Silva’s sole offensive output on the feet had consisted of kicks, largely because he was unable to close the distance that Franklin has established.

When Silva was able to tag Franklin, it was when he moved forward. Silva finally landed two clean counter-hooks on Franklin with roughly 1:10 remaining the second round, and sensing blood, he charged. He landed a few solid right hands, but because he insisted on only throwing hooks, Franklin was able to avoid many of them and stay in the fight and on his feet. In the final round, Wanderlei was able to grab a Thai clinch – a position that both fighters are very familiar with, albeit for completely disparate reasons – but was too exhausted to maintain it. Wanderlei, much like in the previous round, found some success moving forward at the end, but it was too little too late. Franklin’s takedown in the final minute sealed the win for him.

In all likelihood, this upcoming fight is going to have many similarities to their past one, but with some key differences. Most notably, their last fight (held at a 195-pound catchweight) marked Silva’s first attempt at cutting below 205, and he reportedly had to lose 12 pounds the day before. It clearly affected his conditioning in that bout, and should not prove to be a problem this time around. But it wasn’t the only reason Silva grew tired; Franklin’s strategy of keeping Silva on the outside, swinging and missing with his powerful punches and throwing kicks, was also responsible for wearing Silva down. I doubt Franklin will change his strategy for this fight, and if he executes it, he’s going to win again.

Wanderlei needs to press forward, throw bombs, and hope to either connect with one or secure a Muay Thai plum-clinch. Either way, victory for him comes down to whether or not he will be able to close the distance. The problem for Silva is that this path is fraught with peril; Franklin may not have hands of stone, but he’s shown he has more than enough power to take out a fading star who’s chin isn’t what it once was. (Just ask Liddell.) When Silva wades in with those looping hooks, he invariably gets beaten to the punch. That didn’t matter when he was younger, but it does now.

For this reason, I’m giving the slight edge to Franklin. He doesn’t need to risk as much to put himself in a position to win the fight as Wanderlei does. Silva definitely has the capability to knock Franklin out, but I don’t see him taking a decision over five rounds and I certainly don’t see him submitting Franklin. Franklin has proven he can stay on the outside and pick his shots; he risks getting tagged, but as long as Silva refuses to punch straight, it’s not as big a risk as it should be. He can win a decision, or possibly knock Silva out if he wades in with his hands low. I suspect Silva will have his moments, but will tire trying to catch Franklin over the course of five rounds as “Ace” wins a clear cut decision in a headlining fight that has virtually no implications for the middleweight title picture and lacks a remotely compelling narrative or rivalry.

Actually, I take it back; you shouldn’t even pirate this. (You’re welcome, Dana.)

UFC 148: What’s Better for the UFC, a Silva Win or a Sonnen Win?

In but a few short weeks the biggest rematch in the history of MMA will take place in Las Vegas (not that you’d necessarily know based on advertising or hype), when Anderson Silva defends his UFC middleweight title against Chael Sonnen. The best …

The best ever.

His defining nemesis.

All the marbles.

Some people love Silva, some hate him. Some people love Sonnen, some hate him. In that mix, it’s likely to be a noticeably split crowd when the two enter the cage.

But, with the most bankable fight they could possibly sell going down at UFC 148, what’s best for the UFC?

Looking at a Silva win, there’s plenty to like for the promotion.

Their most invincible champion confirms he’s the best ever, beating his greatest foil and proving the first time was no accident. When they write the book on the sport and talk about the greatest warriors of this generation, the Silva legacy will be officially unquestioned with two wins over Sonnen.

A Sonnen win, on the other hand, is much more of a here and now proposition.

The ultimate black hat, the only man to ever walk up to the most dangerous man on earth and stick a finger in his chest, to actively pick a fight with Silva and mean it with every fibre of his being, proves that he truly is the better man. From there, the inevitable immediate rematch and completion of the trilogy would likely secure the greatest rivalry ever as the most profitable as well.

Realistically, it’s win-win for them.

However, as dorks worldwide have reminded us since Highlander first made the point, “there can only be one.”

At a time when UFC cards are happening more often than a bachelor changes his underwear and injuries are leaving many of them in shambles, the capacity to have not only Silva-Sonnen II but also a trilogy bout has to be appealing. Sure, the legacy of Anderson Silva, The Undefeated Champion, is a nice idea, but it’s not as valuable to the UFC as the ability to finally get on a strong run of pay-per-view action and get some cash in coffers.

As it stands, after this weekend’s dreadful UFC 147 offering numbered events from 148 to 152 look promising. Names like Silva, Sonnen, Urijah Faber, Hector Lombard, Frankie Edgar, Jon Jones, Junior dos Santos, Cain Velasquez, Georges St-Pierre, and Carlos Condit are all slated to enter the cage during that time.

How good would it be for them to cap it off with another year-end battle between Sonnen and Silva, a final time and for the title that Oregon’s favorite son (or greatest shame, depending on who you ask) defends for the first time?

Pretty good, regardless of which man one would be rooting for. One would surely pay to see it a final time, particularly if the second incarnation is even half the fight the first one was.

With that in mind, it’s easy to see that a Sonnen win is more beneficial to the UFC at the moment. Anderson Silva’s legacy, while incredible and even more impressive should he continue his streak with another win over Sonnen, isn’t something the promotion can monetize right now. A third fight between the two, however, is.

At the end of the day, for the UFC, it’s all about making that bread (though not so much so that they kept Kimbo Slice, one of history’s all-time great bread makers, around). A Sonnen win assures they can do that one more time.

Even if he doesn’t know it yet, somewhere in the back of his head, Dana White will be rooting for Chael Sonnen at UFC 148.

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UFC 147: Mike Russow Carries the Legacies of Steve Jennum and Sean Gannon

There have been few fighters in UFC history who have donned the badge and walked the thin blue line whilst trying to pursue a successful career in the world’s leading MMA promotion. Of those who have tried, nearly all have failed. Ninjitsu ex…

There have been few fighters in UFC history who have donned the badge and walked the thin blue line whilst trying to pursue a successful career in the world’s leading MMA promotion.

Of those who have tried, nearly all have failed.

Ninjitsu exponent Steve Jennum may have won UFC 3 due to a series of absurd events but ultimately, he was only 2-4 in his career.

Sean Gannon—the man who felled legendary street fighter Kimbo Slice in an infamous YouTube brawl and was signed by the UFC for his efforts—had his UFC career begin and end in one fight—a TKO loss to the unremarkable Branden Lee Hinkle at UFC 55.

Other officers have come and gone, none as notable as Jennum or Gannon (and to those who mention Forrest Griffin and Tim Sylvia, the former left the police before he went to the UFC and the latter joined the police force after he left the UFC), but UFC 147 co-main event fighter Mike Russow has a chance to carry their torch Saturday night, and make it burn brightly in the memories of all MMA fans.

He’s undaunted by the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu master he is set to face, Fabricio Werdum, the man who truly defeated the legendary Fedor Emelianenko for the first time and is even more indifferent about the fact that he must face the Brazilian in his home country.

“Honestly, it really doesn’t bother me,” said Russow at the UFC 147 media conference call, at which Bleacher Report was present.

“I’m the underdog, all the pressure is on [Werdum]. It really doesn’t bother me, what the fans are doing. I really don’t hear them anyway. Especially once the referee says ‘go.’ I really don’t even hear my coaches, so it that’s not gonna bother me at all.”

Russow’s background as a Chicago police officer might be responsible for his calmness in the face of such duress and adversity, but surely the act of being both a police officer and full-time fighter must be exhausting both mentally and physically, no?

On that topic, Russow gives some ground and admits that he’s no superman; it’s tough to perform well at two demanding professions.

“It’s very tough working both jobs, but I’ve been doing this since like ’07 or ’08 so I’m used to it now with two careers,” he said.

“[O]bviously, the competition is getting a lot harder. But our camps our pretty much the same. Train in Chicago, I got great coaches…It really is the conditioning I think. I know fighters say each time…but I really believe that my conditioning is the best for this fight coming up Saturday.”

Such a remark about conditioning might garner sneers from some of the more cynical MMA fans out there, since Russow is notoriously…corpulent for a man who fights in the Octagon. Granted, he’s no Roy Nelson, but he’s not a chiseled work of art, either.

However, that’s part of Russow’s appeal as a fighter and why he’s carrying the torch first picked up by Steve Jennum and later carried by Sean Gannon—two men who didn’t exactly have body builder physiques themselves.

Mike Russow is the average man, and the average police officer trying to make his way through the sport—the same way Jennum and Gannon were.

Yeah, there have been (and are) other lawmen who’ve graced the Octagon such as Paulo Thiago, Forrest Griffin, Andrei Arlovski and Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic, but they were both muscular and didn’t have the everyman appeal that Russow does.

When people looked at a prime Andrei Arlovski (ripped to shreds, bearded, with fangs) or a prime “Cro Cop” (massively muscular), it was a given that they were tough and could smash people.

But when people saw the doughy Russow against better-looking fighters like Todd Duffee, it was almost laughable. Yet Russow managed to win 15 fights and lose only one!

Most recently, he beat former ADCC champion Jon Olav Einemo, a feat which Russow said did wonders for him psychologically, especially since he’s facing another fearsome Jiu-Jitsu fighter and ADCC champion in Werdum.

“I think it really boosted my confidence going against a guy like Jon Einemo…I know [Werdum], he’s a lot more active and is very good, but I definitely think it helped my confidence,” he said.

Still, it’d be wrong to typecast Werdum as just a Jiu-Jitsu fighter. In Werdum’s first UFC run, such a statement might have carried more weight. But more recently, Werdum has sharpened his striking skills, a fact which Russow is aware of.

“From watching film on him, especially his last fight with Roy Nelson, I think his stand-up is a lot better, very good with the Muay Thai and the clinch, going for knees. He’s gonna be a tough guy,” said Russow.

If Russow can defeat a fighter of Werdum’s caliber, it could do wonders for his career. It would be his 11th straight win and his UFC record would stand at 4-0. Russow would make himself the best of the brave yet physically less than impressive, and he might be only a fight or two away from a title shot!

But lofty notions do little to the mind of Mike Russow.

“I’m really just focused on the fight. I really don’t want to look past anything. I just wanna get through Saturday and shock everybody. ” he said.

And shock everybody he might—the same way Jennum shocked the world at UFC 3, the same Gannon shocked Youtube by beating Kimbo Slice and the same way Russow has already been shocking the uninformed UFC fans by racking up win after win, proving that it’s not the muscles that make the man.

Follow @MattSaccaro

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UFC 147: Silva vs. Franklin Live Streaming Pre-Fight Press Conference Video

Nearing the end of their great careers, former Pride champion Wanderlei Silva and former UFC champion Rich Franklin will be looking to make an unlikely title run in the middleweight division before calling it quits. On Saturday, Silva and Franklin will meet in a bout that will give the winner a good argument for a bout with one of the division’s top contenders.

To add to the excitement for this fight card, two TUF winners will be determined from the series’ first season in Brazil. In the final fight of the season’s featherweight tournament, Godofredo de Oliveira will meet Rony Mariano Bezerra. Meanwhile, Daniel Sarafian will face off against XXXXXXXXXX in the final bout of the middleweight tournament.

Additionally, Fabricio Werdum will attempt to take a step closer to a rematch with heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos by beating Mike Russow on UFC 147‘s main card.

To promote UFC 147, which will be held at Revel Casino in Atlantic City, N.J., a pre-fight press conference will be held on Thursday at 2 p.m. ET. Event headliners Silva and Franklin will likely join UFC president Dana White for the presser.

Video of the press conference will be streamed live on the above video player. After the presser, stay tuned to Bleacher Report MMA for all the latest on UFC 147 and the rest of your MMA needs.

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UFC 147: Did the Endless Injury Plague Distract Us from a Tragic Injustice?

With major injuries plaguing UFC 147, 148 and 149, the summer has become a graveyard of exciting fights that could have been. When world title fights are being cancelled and postponed on a horrifyingly consistent basis, it’s easy to lose sight of the w…

Top names like Vitor Belfort, Jose Aldo and Dominick Cruz have fallen to the wayside, as have pivotal matchups that had fans on the edge of their seats. Those injuries blurred the vision of fight fans and we have largely ignored a tragic injustice.

The Ultimate Fighter has proven to be a successful vehicle for winners and losers alike. Tournaments are a popular format that fans can keep track of. They build anticipation for future bouts and give bragging rights to the eventual winner.

The title of “TUF winner” is a marketing tool that has permitted humdrum and irrelevant matchups like Mac Danzig vs Efrain Escudero and Amir Sadollah vs anyone to somehow grab the interest of fans who would otherwise sit apathetically.

Although the coaches’ fights have been plagued by injuries that postponed or cancelled the highly anticipated matchups, never in the history of The Ultimate Fighter has a finalist been injured between the time he earned his spot in the finals and the time that the fight was originally scheduled to take place.

Until now.

Daniel Sarafian was not only a promising fighter, but he was also the favorite to win the tournament. When UFC.com reported on Monday that the Team Belfort fighter would have to bow out, it simply became a footnote in regards to the recent plague of injuries that has ravaged the main card of the summer’s biggest events. However, a bigger story is being overlooked.

When a fighter earns a title shot and has to bow out due to injury, it is common that someone else will replace him in the championship bout and he gets his shot after recovering. With the TUF plaque, there is no defense of the title. It’s a one-time thing that is non-transferrable down the line.

How can you crown either Cezar “Mutante” Ferreira or Sergio Maraes as The Ultimate Fighter when the rightful finalist has not been defeated? For the sake of preserving the prestige of TUF, shouldn’t the finals have been postponed until Mutante and Sarafian were both available to do battle? If successful on Saturday night, can anyone call Maraes the true tournament winner after his incredible KO loss to Sarafian?

Sure, top fighters like Matt Hamill have been injured on the road to the finals and replaced along the way, but this marks the first time that a fighter has already seen his ticket to the final punched and then been forced out.

For the sake of Daniel Sarafian, I hope that the UFC awards him the same contract as the winners of the show. He deserves better than to miss out on the six-figure contract that comes along with a tournament win.

Author’s Note: Before you comment about Jesse Taylor being a rightful finalist, save your breath. He was removed from the Season 7 competition due to behavioral issues that required disciplinary action. Sarafian is in a completely different boat and has done nothing wrong that justifies him missing out on this golden opportunity.

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